Huh, Wade Miley projects to be pretty valuable

[Hairps]

I just started paying attention here so maybe it's already been covered but I was surprised to see that Miley projects to be about as valuable as some of the second-tier FA starters that I suspect some of the "smart" FOs will be targeting once Greinke is off the board. Cueto and Lackey are a cut above IMHO but I also included Shelby Miller as he seems to be a trendy trade name right now:

A few notes on what's included:

- Projections are based on Steamer forecasts as found on FanGraphs.
- Non-Miley free agent projected salary AAVs are based on the crowd-funded projections as found on FanGraphs.
- Miller's projected arb for this year is based on MLBTR's model.

http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&type=steamer&team=0&lg=all&players=0
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/category/contract-crowdsourcing-2015-16/
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/10/projected-arbitration-salaries-for-2016.html

 

[Just a bit outside]

Miley is a very solid pitcher in the fourth spot and has a very reasonable contract. I am surprised that they only project him for 165 innings. He has pitched more than 190 innings for 4 straight years.

 

[nvalvo]

Miley is a very solid pitcher in the fourth spot and has a very reasonable contract. I am surprised that they only project him for 165 innings. He has pitched more than 190 innings for 4 straight years.

He's beaten that FIP four straight years, too. That "valuable" projection would be Miley's worst season since his rookie year.

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

I also got stuck right away on the projected innings pitched. 165 for Miley is unreasonably low since he's been 190+ each of the past 4 years and is only 29. Compared to that noted Man of Steel, 32 yo Scott Kazmir, who's projected to throw 169. Something's out of whack there...

But, yes, I agree with your overall point. Miley is a sneaky good, relative value.

 

[P'tucket rhymes with...]

Wait, you mean he's not the biggest POS on the planet that we should trade for a sack of moldy (base)balls the first time some idiot GM goes shopping?

He's a steal, even more so now that there are some studs at the top of the rotation to keep idiots from expecting too much of him.

 

[EricFeczko]

I'd love to know the confidence intervals on those projections. Without them, comparisons between different players are hard to make.

 

[JimD]

I was going to say that the 2011 Red Sox could've really used a solid if unspectacular guy like Wade Miley during their September swoon, but then I remembered reading that the chicken they ordered was from Popeye's, so NM.

 

[Yossarian]

Man, between Price, Miley, and hopefully a guy like Porcello straightening himself out, this rotation has the potential to eat a lot of quality innings. Even apart from Kimbrel trade, the positive ripple effect on the bullpen could be enormous.

 

[Drek717]

Miley absolutely has significant value, but then that is exactly what might get him traded. The Red Sox now have Price, Buchholz, Rodriguez, Miley, Porcello, Kelly, Owens, Johnson, and Wright as legitimate starting options for 2016. Only five can be starters on opening day and another two would comprise a good next tier of options.

Obviously they could stand pat, sending Owens and Johnson Pawtucket with Wright as the long man out of the bullpen and Kelly either in Pawtucket or in the 'pen himself. Alternatively, if the organization's player evaluation crew believe Kelly's late season improvement was legitimate, that one of Johnson/Owens are ready, or some other wrinkle only they know of causes them to want to make a move from that Miley is an excellent trade chip.

The brain teaser is what you'd move him for that is worth more than having him as a very dependable #4 or #5 starter on the Red Sox. Sent to the right team he could do a lot to back fill the AA/AAA positional player depth currently missing in the organization, but I'm not sure if Dombrowski is really very worried about that, he appears to be building the club to be less farm reliant over the next couple years as a bridge to the Greenville group. He could staple him onto Sandoval or Hanley as a way to subsidize one of them, eating less money as a result, but that is a strictly financial gain kind of move and I'm pretty sure the focus right now is winning in 2016, financial cost be damned. Other than that Miley could get them a good reliever, but it seems rather pointless trading Miley for a reliever and moving Kelly into the rotation when instead they could just move Kelly into the bullpen.

I wouldn't be surprised to see any one of Miley, Buchholz, or Kelly traded before spring training but I'm not really betting on it at this point. The wealth of pitching isn't creating a roster logjam and the directive from ownership is clearly to win games ASAP. The best way to guarantee that is to have a deep, reliable rotation and Miley as a back of the rotation starter is a stable foundation to that end.

 

[ElcaballitoMVP]

I don't think I'd want to move Miley just to have one of Kelly/Owens/Johnson take his place.

If the Sox can package Miley with a couple of top prospects to bring back a stud, go for it. Otherwise, I'd rather keep his dependable arm in a rotation that has question-marks outside of the #1 spot.

If DD can go get a J. Fernandez, Sale or Gray, using Miley as a main piece, I'm all for it. However, I just don't see one of those deals coming together and it would require giving up some of our top prospects to make it happen. The team has flexibility with a number of guys between the rotation, bullpen and AAA, so there's no need to get rid of Miley just to recoup some of the prospect value the Sox gave up in the Kimbrel deal.

 

[scout101]

I think Kelly should be the guy you're looking to move here. Doesn't fit the profile for success in the bullpen, and we've got better options for rotation spots now that Price has reslotted the rest of the players down. Rather see Owens get the first chance at the 6th spot, Wright is around, Johnson, etc. Kelly throws hard, is still cheap (with 2 more ARB years), and had good success down the stretch. What is the thought on what his value could be?

Perfectly happy keeping Miley in a 4th/5th rotation slot. Good value, decent production, eats innings, exactly what the role calls for.

 

[RustyKuntzwasnotastripper]

At this point, I wouldn't trade either Miley or Kelly. Keep them just in case till ST. That would give you insurance both for a SP getting injured and as trade bait if an everyday player is injured and needs to be replaced.

 

[nvalvo]

What would a deal look like that swapped Miley and Quintana?

Of course, we'd be adding value in such a deal. But what? The White Sox have a ton of position player holes.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

What would a deal look like that swapped Miley and Quintana?

Of course, we'd be adding value in such a deal. But what? The White Sox have a ton of position player holes.

Which probably means they'd want good big league or near big league ready talent in return. Which, the Red Sox lack unless they want to create holes in their own roster (Bradley, Castillo, etc). So then the question is, is the upgrade from Miley to Quintana (which isn't really that big) worth the cost of replacing whatever else they would have to give up?

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

What would a deal look like that swapped Miley and Quintana?

Of course, we'd be adding value in such a deal. But what? The White Sox have a ton of position player holes.

The White Sox' biggest holes appear to be in the infield, where we don't have that much to offer that's likely to tempt. We could dangle Holt, who would seem to be an upgrade at second base, but I suspect we'd have to add a pretty good prospect as well, not one of the top guys, but not a lottery ticket either. I'm not sure that's a good deal for either team.

Also, if we use Miley to trade up for a better SP, it really should be a RHP.

 

[curly2]

I think Kelly should be the guy you're looking to move here. Doesn't fit the profile for success in the bullpen, and we've got better options for rotation spots now that Price has reslotted the rest of the players down. Rather see Owens get the first chance at the 6th spot, Wright is around, Johnson, etc. Kelly throws hard, is still cheap (with 2 more ARB years), and had good success down the stretch. What is the thought on what his value could be?

Perfectly happy keeping Miley in a 4th/5th rotation slot. Good value, decent production, eats innings, exactly what the role calls for.

What makes you say that?

 

[The Tax Man]

What makes you say that?

Snod looked at moving Kelly to the bullpen on .com

 

[curly2]

Snod looked at moving Kelly to the bullpen on .com

Thanks for pointing that out. That was written just before his nice run in August, which obviously showed his potential as a starter. Durability seems an issue for him, though, which (combined with his velocity) makes me think relieving might be his best bet going forward.

 

[Alex Cole's Rec Specs]

I think Kelly should be the guy you're looking to move here. Doesn't fit the profile for success in the bullpen, and we've got better options for rotation spots now that Price has re-slotted the rest of the players down.

Also, Kelly is probably most appealing based on his salary, age, and upside, to the widest range of teams. He makes $3 million next season, is still just 27, and has shown flashes of being a #2 or e very good #3 starter.

Better yet, maybe we should just keep him

 

[nvalvo]

The White Sox' biggest holes appear to be in the infield, where we don't have that much to offer that's likely to tempt. We could dangle Holt, who would seem to be an upgrade at second base, but I suspect we'd have to add a pretty good prospect as well, not one of the top guys, but not a lottery ticket either. I'm not sure that's a good deal for either team.

Also, if we use Miley to trade up for a better SP, it really should be a RHP.

I was also thinking Miley, Holt + for Quintana. What about Chavis?

Quintana is one of the few pitchers on a better contract than Miley, so the prospect would have to be meaningful.

 

[Philip Jeff Frye]

Miley absolutely has significant value, but then that is exactly what might get him traded. The Red Sox now have Price, Buchholz, Rodriguez, Miley, Porcello, Kelly, Owens, Johnson, and Wright as legitimate starting options for 2016. Only five can be starters on opening day and another two would comprise a good next tier of options.

Ah, the inevitable offseason SoSH "What will we do with all this pitching!?" post. A tradition probably dating back to the creation of this board.

Miley could get traded, but I doubt that the need to get Johnson or Wright into the rotation will be the primary motivator.

 

[dbn]

It occurred to me the other day when thinking about Miley that I'm not exactly sure what people mean when they say "innings eater". Do they mean he pitches a lot of innings per game, per year, or both? Pitching a lot of innings per year is certainly a good thing, if they are good innings, but if you get there by only going an average number of IP/game, but making a lot of starts, that doesn't really mean that you are saving a lot of bullpen innings (well, you might be saving starts by young call-ups who would exit early and need BP innings).

Below are some numbers for the "most likely 6", for the past three seasons. Porcello had some relief appearances that I was too lazy to track down and remove, so the real number is somewhere in range listed.

The AL average last year was 5.84 IP/start. That's probably a bit lower than the average for a "typical" starter since it includes young call ups on pitch counts, etc., but it's a good baseline for comparison. There isn't a good way to define the average IP/season for a "typical" pitcher, so I estimate by dividing the average number of starter innings pitched by 5.

year, IP/start, IP for that season

AL AVG
2015 5.84 946/5=189.20

Miley
2015 6.05 193.67
2014 6.10 201.33
2013 6.14 202.67

Price
2015 6.89 220.33
2014 7.30 248.33
2013 6.91 186.67

Porcello
2015 6.14 172.00
2014 6.40-6.60 204.67
2013 5.53-6.10 177.00

Buchholz
2015 6.30 113.33
2014 6.08 170.33
2013 6.77 108.33

Kelly
2015 5.37 134.33
2014 6.13 61.33
2013 5.00 35.00

Rodriguez
2015 5.79 121.67

It seems that Miley pitches a lot of innings per year because he makes a lot of starts per year, but is only slightly over AL average in innings pitched per start. He gets about one more out per game than an average starter. That's good, but maybe he isn't saving the bullpen as much as we sometimes think. N.b. that I'm not saying he isn't valuable - his durability is great and I'm in favor of having him in the rotation.

I've never looked at these kind of numbers before, so I don't know what would qualify as "fantastic", but Price's IP/start numbers seem to qualify. He gets over 3 more outs per game than an average starter.

(edited a bit to make what I'm saying a bit clearer)

 

[Fireball Fred]

Reliability is a very important quality in a starter. Miley has it; Buchholz and Kelly don't. If the Sox are trading a starter, it shouldn't be Miley.

 

[nvalvo]

Looks like he was pushed back a day with "dead arm" in May 2013, and that's his injury history.