Rasputin said:
Christ, people, you're both wrong.
Daniel Nava's 2013 was a mirage to the extent that he doesn't really have that much power. Twelve homers is more than he has hit in any season including the time he spent destroying high A in 2008 and 2009.
But, as many of us pointed out coming into 2013, a Gomes/Nava platoon in left would result in pretty good numbers. I won't go into all the details because I have better things to do, but the status quo in left field is pretty damn good.
He doesn't have a ton of value on the trade market because he is a soon to be 31 year old with less than three hundred games in the majors who is one year away from the arb process. He's not going to get a ton of money in the arb process because his team will just release him rather than pay it because he's a poor defensive outfielder with middling power. That's not something you pay to acquire from another club, it's something you bring in a bunch of minor league free agents and major league has beens and hold an open audition for.
While Nava certainly isn't good enough to play RF on anything resembling an every day basis, he did just get 51 starts there for a team that won the World Series. If you're looking for a shert term replacement because Victorino is banged up, Nava is fine. If Victorino goes on the DL, his replacement will likely be someone who can be trusted to play RF with some competence.
As previously noted, the Gomes/Nava platoon is a pretty good combination. It also costs less than ten million dollars and no prospects to retain. If you're going to add a multi million dollar salary commitment through 2018, you're not going to do it for anything less than a difference maker.
Andre Either is not a difference maker.
Nava's ISO was just a few points lower than his 2012 MLB ISO, when he had 21 doubles and 6 home runs in 267 ABs versus the 29 doubles and 12 home runs he had in 458 ABs this past season. He also split a lot of seasons between two levels, for example in 2010 he had 10 HR in only 284 ABs in his first go round at AAA (ISO of .169) but spent a little under half that season on the ML roster.
The big question on Nava is his K%. His first run at the majors it was 24.5%, in 2012 it was 19.9%. Last season it was 17.4%. The 2011 to 2012 jump was huge to be sure, but the improvement last season coupled with his BABIP spike are what made his 2013 season so impressive. Interestingly enough he had a similar improvement in K% at AAA, with his three seasons there being 19.7%, 16.9%, and 12.5% respectively.
And in a league where pretty much every team understands and values OBP I don't see how a guy who is a pretty safe bet for another .370+ OBP season isn't an appealing commodity to most teams. He isn't any older than the FAs these teams are chasing and he costs a whole lot less than for example Choo who has a pretty similar skill set.
That said, I'm not advocating replacing Nava with Ethier, simply pointing out that it makes sense if the FO doubts Nava going forward for some unknown reason or if some lower payroll club is willing to over-compensate with prospects for Nava's low salary v. production.
Personally I think you stick with the Nava/Gomes platoon as I think Nava might off-set any BABIP regression with further K% improvement. Not to mention that he's a career .332 BABIP guy across all levels so there is reason to believe his BABIP isn't entirely a mirage. Also, Gomes had one of his more pedestrian seasons against LHP last year while hitting pretty close to his career norm against RHP, so I could definitely see him taking off against lefties in 2014, making a straight platoon potentially more productive than in 2013. After 2013 the RH side of the platoon can be opened up for Bryce Brentz, Alex Hassan (if he isn't the 1B), and Alex Castellanos depending on who acquits themselves the best this year. If Brentz bounces back with a repeat of AAA it might even be a good opportunity to break him in for a season before having him replace Victorino in RF.