Do you really think that Rafaela starts in AAA? I would think he spends a month or two in AA - hes under 300 PAs there. Thats pretty light sample for a guy who didnt completely tear up the league (though he performed well). Given his zone judgement, it would seem prudent to give him some time - of the three you mention he seems the least likely to get time in MLB next year - Mata is almost guaranteed to and Walter should as long as his neck isnt completely messed up (which it completely could be since he was never able to get back on the field).It's more about 2024/25, but Rafaela, Walter, Mata. There's also an outside chance that someone like Kavadas or Hickey lights up AA, earns a promotion to AAA by the end of June and we see them in September. This is what we saw with Bello this year.
The first 3 will be starting the year in AAA. Most decent prospects don't spend a full year in AAA without getting a call to the majors.
Enmanuel Valdez and Wilyer Abreu could possibly see playing time in 2023 as well. They will also be starting the year in AAA. It really depends on the direction the Sox go in this offseason. Veteran talent at top dollar or signing some cheap stop gaps and actually giving a chance to players like Valdez, Abreu and, Wong to see if they can do anything at the major league level.
If you think the team is going to try and seriously compete in 2023, it's pretty much Bello and Casas. If you think it's going to be more of a bridge year, it's Bello, Casas, Mata, Walter, Rafaela, Abreu, Valdez, Wong. Possibly Kavadas, and Hickey. We'll probably see Seabold regardless. Chris Murphy. Franklin German. Thad Ward probably starts the year in AAA too and he was pretty impressive on his return from TJS.
It also depends how you define the word "impact." I don't know if they'll make an impact, but if the Red Sox go with more of a bridge year, they have a lot of AAA talent close (or as close as the will ever be) to the MLB. At some point, they'll have to let some of them sink or swim. Or never try them at all, I guess.