Fixing the bullpen (can it be fixed?)

[Stan Papi Was Framed]

Didn't see a thread on the bullpen so figured I'd start one.  geoduck no quahog made these suggestions for changing the bullpen (assuming no trade):
 
 
Uehara
Tazawa
Ogando
Layne
Ross Wright
Breslow Kelly
Barnes Masterson
 
They have a serious problem right now--as geoduck suggests, only 4 guys in the current bullpen (assuming Wright doesn't count) are reliable--and of those, only the first two are first-rate.  Ogando obviously has problems with the long ball and Layne, while excellent against lefties, may not be more than a lefty specialist.
 
Personally, I'd love to see the Red Sox try Kelly in the bullpen (beginning in Pawtucket).  They have a big need that he might fill here--and based on his stuff, seems like he at least has a chance to be successful as a late innings guy.  Right now, the margin for error is razor thin and it's obvious how much they are depending on Taz and Uehera at the back end.
 
Breslow must go. He should have gone a while ago.  Nothing against him personally--seems like a great guy, just had a kid--but he does not appear to have anything left.  I wouldn't even trust him in the 9th inning with a 4 run lead (yet somehow he has found himself in high leverage situations recently).
 
Ross has been pretty unimpressive.  Replacing him with Wright seems fine (lacking any better option).  Wright might be better as a starter, though.
 
I guess it is worth seeing if Masterson has any value in the bullpen, though I'd give him a very short leash and aim for low leverage situations to begin.
 
If Masterson can't do anything out of the pen and/or if Wright fits better as a starter, it gets tricky.  I'd consider giving Dalier Hinojosa or Dayan Diaz a shot, though neither is a scintillating option (Hinojosa has a 34-15 K-BB ratio in 38.1 innings at Pawtucket this year and his stuff does not sound extraordinary; Diaz has a 25-8 K-BB ratio in 28 innings at Pawtucket, 25 hits allowed, 3 HR.  His stuff sounds better than Hinojosa's, but so does Aro's and he struggled at the big league level in limited action recently.
 
So, I'd go with Uehara, Taz, Layne (mainly against lefties), Ogando, Kelly (after some time at Pawtucket if he succeeds there).  For the last 2 slots, it's a mystery,  The easiest options I see are trying some combination of Masterson, Wright, Diaz, and/or Hinojosa, but none of those sound great and most seem like long shots at best (plus, under my approach, they'd need a 3rd guy while waiting on Kelly).  A trade seems worth exploring, though I have no immediate ideas on that front.
 
What is clear is that Breslow's time should be up and Ross should be back in the minors.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Part of the problem is that because the bullpen has no depth, guys are being used beyond their effective roles.    For example, Layne is a LOOGY and needs to be used as such.  Right handed batters kill him.   Ogando needs to be a one inning reliever.  I don't have any stats to back it up, but it feels like he gets he gets in most trouble when he goes a second inning.
 
I don't want Wright starting.  I think he should be the long man in the bullpen.
 
 
EDIT--I haven't seen whether or not anyone claimed Feliz.  If not, I'd definitely take a shot.

 

[Byrdbrain]

I would say this stat backs up your Ogando observation pretty well.
 
Alex Speier ‏@alexspeier  6h6 hours ago
Meant to mention: Ogando entered today holding opponents to a .208 avg, .643 OPS in pitches 1-25; .286/1.159 after pitch 25.

 

[Stan Papi Was Framed]

Part of the problem is that because the bullpen has no depth, guys are being used beyond their effective roles.    For example, Layne is a LOOGY and needs to be used as such.  Right handed batters kill him.   Ogando needs to be a one inning reliever.  I don't have any stats to back it up, but it feels like he gets he gets in most trouble when he goes a second inning.
 
I don't want Wright starting.  I think he should be the long man in the bullpen.

absolutely right.  Farrell has very little to work with.  Didn't Layne give up a 2 run HR to a righty the other day against Toronto?  I remember being stunned he was facing the righty--but, as you point out, there is no depth.
 
I think you're right on Ogando--here is a tweet from Alex Speier today:
 
Alex Speier ‏@alexspeier  6h6 hours ago
Meant to mention: Ogando entered today holding opponents to a .208 avg, .643 OPS in pitches 1-25; .286/1.159 after pitch 25.

 

[Stan Papi Was Framed]

I would say this stat backs up your Ogando observation pretty well.
 
Alex Speier ‏@alexspeier  6h6 hours ago
Meant to mention: Ogando entered today holding opponents to a .208 avg, .643 OPS in pitches 1-25; .286/1.159 after pitch 25.

ha! sorry, you beat me to it.  

 

[Stan Papi Was Framed]

Part of the problem is that because the bullpen has no depth, guys are being used beyond their effective roles.    For example, Layne is a LOOGY and needs to be used as such.  Right handed batters kill him.   Ogando needs to be a one inning reliever.  I don't have any stats to back it up, but it feels like he gets he gets in most trouble when he goes a second inning.
 
I don't want Wright starting.  I think he should be the long man in the bullpen.
 
 
EDIT--I haven't seen whether or not anyone claimed Feliz.  If not, I'd definitely take a shot.

and yes, why not take a shot on Feliz as long as the price isn't too high?  
 
edit: even this year, Feliz's numbers are pretty good against righties.

 

[AB in DC]

I was amused to see who has the third-lowest FIP (behind Uehara and Tazawa) among Red Sox relievers this year.

 

[Stan Papi Was Framed]

I was amused to see who has the third-lowest FIP (behind Uehara and Tazawa) among Red Sox relievers this year.

ha!  Varvaro…it has been a very thin unit.  
 
Breslow is 3rd to last, ahead of only Mujica and Hinojosa (1.2 innings).  

 

[Rasputin]

Most of the problems with the bullpen would be solved by starters who can go six reliably.

Dump Masterson and Breslow from the team permanently and Porcello from the rotation temporarily and bring up Wright, Johnson, and Owens.

Johnson and Owens are probably better than Masterson (forever) and Porcello (until he gets fixed) and Wright would be exactly the kind of multi inning long man you need when you have two guys in the rotation that can't be trusted to go five on a regular basis, let alone six.

And ya know what? Owens and Johnson might be able to go six more reliably than Masterson and Porcello.

Then you go out and try to find a starter, a lefty reliever, and a first baseman.

Maybe the starter turns out to be Porcello returned from the suck. Maybe the reliever turns out to be Owens or Johnson bumped from the rotation because Porcello returned from the suck.

And maybe...nah, we'd still need av first baseman.

 

[Super Nomario]

Most of the problems with the bullpen would be solved by starters who can go six reliably.

Dump Masterson and Breslow from the team permanently and Porcello from the rotation temporarily and bring up Wright, Johnson, and Owens.

Johnson and Owens are probably better than Masterson (forever) and Porcello (until he gets fixed) and Wright would be exactly the kind of multi inning long man you need when you have two guys in the rotation that can't be trusted to go five on a regular basis, let alone six.

And ya know what? Owens and Johnson might be able to go six more reliably than Masterson and Porcello.

Then you go out and try to find a starter, a lefty reliever, and a first baseman.

Maybe the starter turns out to be Porcello returned from the suck. Maybe the reliever turns out to be Owens or Johnson bumped from the rotation because Porcello returned from the suck.

And maybe...nah, we'd still need av first baseman.

If your goal is getting through six, probably better off sticking with Porcello, who's made six innings in 10 of his 16 starts (94.2 IP total) versus Owens (9 of 16, 90.2) or Johnson (9 of 15, 80.2). You might get some effectiveness out of the kids - though I'm dubious about Owens and his near-5 BB rate - but it's tough to count on a rookie for more than 5.

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

IMO, The biggest upgrade (with the current personnel) would involve DFA'ing Breslow and calling up Brian Johnson from AAA to pitch out of the pen.  The second biggest would involve bumping Masterson for Kelly.
 
Starters:
1. Buchholz
2. EdRo
3. Porcello
4. Miley
5. Kelly
 
Pen:
R - Uehara
R - Tazawa
R - Ogando
R - Masterson
L - Johnson
L - Layne
K- Wright
 
One of the Sox main problems in development since the salad days of Daniel Bard, is that the Sox just don't convert their relatively ineffective minor league starters to pitching in relief early enough, whether because of preserving depth or  maximizing value or whatever. Take Drake Britton as a good example. Even though he was apparently a meathead and still might never have lived up to his potential, he should have been converted a year and a half before he was.  

 

[joe dokes]

I think the much bigger problem is starters not going to the 7th or even deep into the 6th. It's a big difference for the bullpen to need 3.2 innings game after game instead of 2.1.  There aren't too many teams who have more than 4 guys they trust in a tight game.
 
No one here mentioned Barnes.  He's not there yet, but I think the team is looking for him to travel the Workman-in-2013 route post ASB.

 

[smastroyin]

I think if they had more depth, sending Barnes back to the bucket to close or pitch higher leverage would be a great idea.  Since they don't, they may have to let him grow up on the job.

 

[threecy]

I think if they had more depth, sending Barnes back to the bucket to close or pitch higher leverage would be a great idea.  Since they don't, they may have to let him grow up on the job.

From an earlier post in the Tazawa thread (not including last night's 1 out):
I suspect Barnes is ready for a demotion.  After a 2.38 ERA May, he had a 11.81 ERA in June and is off to a 7.71 start in July.  He's been getting hit pretty hard all year, to the tune of a .960 opponents OPS (ranging from .882 in May to 1.233 in June).

 

[Maximus]

Glad Masterson has been put in the pen for this week and should stay there, Kelly should join him with Layne, Ogando, Ross Jr, Taz and Koji. DFA Breslow, send Barnes to AAA. Masterson is the long man, ideally just pitching once through the line up. Put Wright or Johnson in the rotation.

 

[soxhop411]

“@alexspeier: Red Sox option Steven Wright to Pawtucket http://t.co/DGppfVwtx6 via @BostonGlobe”

 

[phenweigh]

It's not that I think Steven Wright is something like a savior for the bullpen, but it seems to me he's clearly better and more useful than a lot of what they have.  I get that it's a good idea to keep as many assets as possible and players with options will ride the shuttle.  But that shouldn't apply to players who are clearly outperforming their internal competition.  If Steven Wright was on the roster for the first Astros game I think the Sox probably win.

 

[The Gray Eagle]

Unbelievable that Wright could help improve either the rotation or the bullpen but they send him down again to give Porcello another start before the break and to keep Masterson and Breslow for the bullpen.
 
This next week could be huge in determining whether we fall completely out of the race or get back into it, but they aren't putting the best pitchers out there for it. Makes no sense.
 
If you are trying to get back in the race, use your best players. If you're giving up, give Wright a chance to show what he can do instead of scrubs like Masterson and Breslow who won't be here next year.
 
If you don't know what you're doing, then send down Wright and keep the old scrubs around.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Jason Frasor, he of the 1.54 ERA in 24 innings this year, was just DFA'd by the Royals.  Yes, he's 37 and has an unimpressive 18/15 K/BB, but the Sox should absolutely be in on him.  Put a claim in, offer a middling prospect, and hope the Royals bite.

 

[Stan Papi Was Framed]

tonight's game underscored the urgent need for bullpen help.  Could have really used someone before Taz in the 7th (and ideally would not have to bring Taz in during 7th at all).  they are playing well now and deserve a bullpen worthy of their recent efforts (in addition to the incredible Taz and Koji).

 

[TomRicardo]

Jason Frasor, he of the 1.54 ERA in 24 innings this year, was just DFA'd by the Royals.  Yes, he's 37 and has an unimpressive 18/15 K/BB, but the Sox should absolutely be in on him.  Put a claim in, offer a middling prospect, and hope the Royals bite.

 
Why would you chase fool's gold to fix a real problem?

 

[czar]

Internally, I know he's been knocked around a touch, but Aro had lights out numbers in Pawtucket, has a 10% SwStr% in his admittedly small sample and has taken some bad batted ball luck -- I'd like to see him get a few more innings to see if he settles down. I'd much rather they be getting innings than Breslow, especially since the latter offers no useful platoon splits (aside from the "he suck," thing).
 
Hembree is a somewhat similar case (if his shoulder soreness is really just shoulder soreness), although he's shown flatter stuff in the big leagues this year. His velocity is back up, though, and AAA peripherals are solid, so if/when healthy, he should get a chance at some mop-up innings.
 
Pat Light's stuff intrigues me and may have the best stuff of RP in the Sox system. I know his control hasn't been flawless this season (especially lately), but he's another Hail Mary option if you want to try to catch lightning after the ASB. I keep thinking he's younger than he is (turned 24 this year).

 

[Stan Papi Was Framed]

good piece from Alex Skillin at Over the Monster: "Upgrading Boston's bullpen is the most important task facing Cherington and the club's front office in the coming weeks."

 

[jscola85]

Pat Light needs to prove he can get AAA hitters out before he gets a look in the majors.  His experience in Pawtucket has not been kind so far.

 

[Maximus]

Kelly should be put in the pen next and focus on the 6th or 7th inning.

 

[Stan Papi Was Framed]

Pat Light needs to prove he can get AAA hitters out before he gets a look in the majors.  His experience in Pawtucket has not been kind so far.

absolutely right.  his tools are intriguing, but he is clearly not ready yet.
 

Kelly should be put in the pen next and focus on the 6th or 7th inning.

I'd like to see him in the pen as well but think he could aim for high leverage situations.  Give him a try in Pawtucket and see how he does.