Isn't part of the point of avoiding the CBA's lux tax this year to avoid steeper penalties in future years? The limit will be $206M in 2019. I could see Boston, having been thrifty this and next year, being willing to go over for a year, knowing that Hanley's option year would then allow them to get back under in 2020. And it would be unlikely that they'd be hit with a surcharge in 2019 just by signing one guy, even a $30M+/year guy. Depending, of course, on what other moves they make.
It's possible that they just decide to spend their payroll space under the LT on extending all/most of the B's. Of course, it's also possible that Price opts out, which would create a hole that could be filled by some other 2019 FA...
It's becoming necessary to talk about this supposedly bonanza 2018-19 FA class, if we're assuming it's influencing roster construction. Considering our core and a few other factors, it's hard to see where we're going to spend the money.
Here are free agents that could
conceivably command substantial multi-year contracts (let's say 3/$39 and above), indexed next to in-house players:
C (Vazquez through 2020; Swihart through 2021)
Grandal (30)
Mesoraco (31)
Ramos (30)
1B (Travis through 2023/24?)
Smoak (32)
2B (blocked by Pedroia through 2021)
Dozier (32)
Harrison (31)
LeMahieu (30)
Murphy (34)
3B (Devers up 2017 or 18)
Donaldson (33)
Machado (26)
SS (blocked by Bogaerts through 2019)
Andrus (30 — if opts out)
(Machado)
LF (blocked by Benintendi through 2022)
Brantley (32)
Gardner (34)
CF (blocked by Bradley through 2020)
Blackmon (33)
Jones (33)
McCutchen (32)
Pollock (31)
RF (blocked by Betts through 2020)
Bautista (38)
Harper (26)
Heyward (29)
DH (blocked by Hanley through 2019 if option vests; 2018 if not)
Cruz (38)
Tomas (28 — if opts out)
SPs
Carrasco (32 — if option declined)
Hamels (35 — if option not vested)
Happ (36)
Harvey (30)
Kershaw (31 — if opts out)
Pomeranz (30)
Price (33)
Richards (31)
Smyly (29)
(We have Sale through 2019; Price through 2018 if he opts out — 2022 if not; EdRod through 2021; Porcello through 2019. I'm ignoring relievers because they're so volatile, but 31-year-old Craig Kimbrel will be a FA too.)
There's no coming bonanza for us. Machado won't sign here. Jones won't sign here. Harper's going to New York. L.A. will keep Kershaw unless he's broken. All other pitchers have arm troubles, including those who already play for us.
There's nowhere to spend money except extensions. Unless you bet on a 38-year-old Nelson Cruz (or we trade an outfielder), the only good fits I can see are Donaldson (ignoring Devers) and Grandal (who we drafted in 2007).