Eovaldi to Red Sox, per Rosenthal

Dewey'sCannon

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4/72 seems high to me as well. I wouldn't be shocked - teams do dumb things all the time - but I wouldn't expect it. Given his injury history, I don't see him getting four years unless it has some option years.
 

chrisfont9

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4/72 seems high to me as well. I wouldn't be shocked - teams do dumb things all the time - but I wouldn't expect it. Given his injury history, I don't see him getting four years unless it has some option years.
3 with a fourth option based on number of starts made? I know you can structure bonuses that way but can you structure options similarly? Guess it could just be a mutual option where everyone gets to act based on whether he remained healthy.
 

gedman211

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Alex Cobb is getting 14m,14m, and 15m the next 3 years. One of these drunken sailors is going to take a swing at Eovaldi for $18-20M AAV
 

nvalvo

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Alex Cobb is getting 14m,14m, and 15m the next 3 years. One of these drunken sailors is going to take a swing at Eovaldi for $18-20M AAV
Okay, but at the time that contract was handed out, Cobb had both a better track record on the mound (two years significantly better than Eovaldi’s best to date), and while he has a crazy injury history, he’s only had one TJS. Of course he’s also had a rib removed because of blood clotting and been struck in the head with a line drive. He has mileage.

You might be right in your conclusions, but Cobb’s not a great comp.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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In a world in which a fat turd of a 3rd baseman got the contract he did.... we know some team will pony up a 4 year deal for more than $15M guaranteed per season if he pitches one more good game. That's how this biz works.
 

Average Reds

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Alex Cobb is getting 14m,14m, and 15m the next 3 years. One of these drunken sailors is going to take a swing at Eovaldi for $18-20M AAV
I have to believe that with one more quality start, this is in the neighborhood of what he signs for.

The bad news is that it sucks for us. The good news is that it means he’s probably helped us to another WS. (And good for Eovaldi if he can cash in.)

On point, we always knew that if Eovaldi performed, his price would be high. That’s kind of the nature of the game.
 

RIFan

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Rich Hill signed a 3 year $48M contract that would for his age 37-39 years. He hadn't pitched more than 110 innings in the prior 10 years.

I don't see how Eovaldi doesn't do better than that. There will be enough teams that are tantalized by his stuff and convinced that he has figured it out enough to get into a bidding war. I wouldn't be surprised if he gets into Porcello territory.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
Alex Cobb is getting 14m,14m, and 15m the next 3 years. One of these drunken sailors is going to take a swing at Eovaldi for $18-20M AAV
Yes, but Cobb was one year further removed from surgery, which was only his first, and had just thrown 179 good innings. Cf. Eovaldi, in his first year back from his second surgery, pitching just 111 innings, at a fairly comparable level. Cobb was a safer bet than Eovaldi will be; balance that against Eovaldi's postseason bump (assuming he does well in the WS, which let's all assume for everybody's sake), and the contracts should be pretty similar. I don't see any reason to assume Eovaldi's AAV will be $4-5M more.
 

nvalvo

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I'll say this once more and then stop harping on it. Alex Cobb, Rich Hill, etc.: all of these guys were good but oft-injured pitchers who got mid-sized FA deals with varying results. Of course the jury is still out on Cobb. So in that sense they look like Eovaldi.

But Eovaldi isn't just any oft-injured pitcher. He has had two Tommy John surgeries. Somewhere between 5 and 10 pitchers out of something like 98 have come back and succeeded after a second (or third!) TJS, with the precise number depending on your definitions of "come back" and "succeeded": Chris Capuano, Jason Frasor, Joakim Soria, Jonny Venters, Brian Wilson, Jason Isringhausen, etc. Most of these guys are relievers. Only about half return to a mound, fewer return to majors, and it's really just a handful who last more than a dozen innings after returning.

For every Capuano or Isringhausen, there's a Kyle Drabek. Kris Medlen's four innings of 15.75 ERA ball for the Diamondbacks earlier this year is a pretty typical outcome, and that puts him in the impressive group of guys who worked their way back to a big league mound at all. Chang-Yong Lim's five IP for the Cubs in 2013. Chad Fox' 3.2 IP. Brandon Beachy's 8 IP. Many never get back, even for a single inning at any level: Joel Hanrahan, Pedro Figueroa, Carlos Almanzar, Josh Johnson and a number of others never threw another professional pitch.

What I'm trying to say is that with his 111 IP of 112 ERA+ ball this season (plus two memorable postseason starts), Eovaldi is likely already the second or third most successful post-TJ2 pitcher after Capuano's 6 seasons of 87 ERA+ pitching, mostly as a starter and Jason Frasor's entire big league career: 650ish IP of 125 ERA+ pitching as a setup reliever.

We all know that any pitcher's next pitch could be his last, but that's more true of Eovaldi than most. I hope the dude gets paid — he's been through a lot, and I'm grateful for the way he's impressed on big stages this postseason. The people who point out that it only takes one free-spending GM are of course right: anything's possible. But I expect a one-year deal with a vesting option, not a multiyear commitment.
 
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gedman211

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I'll say this once more and then stop harping on it. Alex Cobb, Rich Hill, etc.: all of these guys were good but oft-injured pitchers who got mid-sized FA deals with varying results. Of course the jury is still out on Cobb. So in that sense they look like Eovaldi.

But Eovaldi isn't just any oft-injured pitcher. He has had two Tommy John surgeries. Somewhere between 5 and 10 pitchers out of something like 98 have come back and succeeded after a second (or third!) TJS, with the precise number depending on your definitions of "come back" and "succeeded": Chris Capuano, Jason Frasor, Joakim Soria, Jonny Venters, Brian Wilson, Jason Isringhausen, etc. Most of these guys are relievers. Only about half return to a mound, fewer return to majors, and it's really just a handful who last more than a dozen innings after returning.

For every Capuano or Isringhausen, there's a Kyle Drabek. Kris Medlen's four innings of 15.75 ERA ball for the Diamondbacks earlier this year is a pretty typical outcome, and that puts him in the impressive group of guys who worked their way back to a big league mound at all. Chang-Yong Lim's five IP for the Cubs in 2013. Chad Fox' 3.2 IP. Brandon Beachy's 8 IP. Many never get back, even for a single inning at any level: Joel Hanrahan, Pedro Figueroa, Carlos Almanzar, Josh Johnson and a number of others never threw another professional pitch.

What I'm trying to say is that with his 111 IP of 112 ERA+ ball this season (plus two memorable postseason starts), Eovaldi is likely already the second or third most successful post-TJ2 pitcher after Capuano's 6 seasons of 87 ERA+ pitching, mostly as a starter and Jason Frasor's entire big league career: 650ish IP of 125 ERA+ pitching as a setup reliever.

We all know that any pitcher's next pitch could be his last, but that's more true of Eovaldi than most. I hope the dude gets paid — he's been through a lot, and I'm grateful for the way he's impressed on big stages this postseason. The people who point out that it only takes one free-spending GM are of course right: anything's possible. But I expect a one-year deal with a vesting option, not a multiyear commitment.
This was well-researched. I appreciate the historical perspective. Buster Olney was on the radio broadcast during the game. He said he spoke to Eo's orthopedist who was marveling at the cleanliness of the holes that had been drilled in Eo's arm. Said his TJ surgery was akin to putting new tires on a car. Olney predicted a contract in the range of 80-100 million. 102 MPH heat with a 1.2 bb/9: That's a Lamborgini with new Pirelli racing treads.
 

BroodsSexton

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I'll say this once more and then stop harping on it. Alex Cobb, Rich Hill, etc.: all of these guys were good but oft-injured pitchers who got mid-sized FA deals with varying results. Of course the jury is still out on Cobb. So in that sense they look like Eovaldi.

But Eovaldi isn't just any oft-injured pitcher. He has had two Tommy John surgeries. Somewhere between 5 and 10 pitchers out of something like 98 have come back and succeeded after a second (or third!) TJS, with the precise number depending on your definitions of "come back" and "succeeded": Chris Capuano, Jason Frasor, Joakim Soria, Jonny Venters, Brian Wilson, Jason Isringhausen, etc. Most of these guys are relievers. Only about half return to a mound, fewer return to majors, and it's really just a handful who last more than a dozen innings after returning.

For every Capuano or Isringhausen, there's a Kyle Drabek. Kris Medlen's four innings of 15.75 ERA ball for the Diamondbacks earlier this year is a pretty typical outcome, and that puts him in the impressive group of guys who worked their way back to a big league mound at all. Chang-Yong Lim's five IP for the Cubs in 2013. Chad Fox' 3.2 IP. Brandon Beachy's 8 IP. Many never get back, even for a single inning at any level: Joel Hanrahan, Pedro Figueroa, Carlos Almanzar, Josh Johnson and a number of others never threw another professional pitch.

What I'm trying to say is that with his 111 IP of 112 ERA+ ball this season (plus two memorable postseason starts), Eovaldi is likely already the second or third most successful post-TJ2 pitcher after Capuano's 6 seasons of 87 ERA+ pitching, mostly as a starter and Jason Frasor's entire big league career: 650ish IP of 125 ERA+ pitching as a setup reliever.

We all know that any pitcher's next pitch could be his last, but that's more true of Eovaldi than most. I hope the dude gets paid — he's been through a lot, and I'm grateful for the way he's impressed on big stages this postseason. The people who point out that it only takes one free-spending GM are of course right: anything's possible. But I expect a one-year deal with a vesting option, not a multiyear commitment.
This is all fair, if you were evaluating Eovaldi ex ante. But hasn't he basically proved that his surgery was successful? In other words, Eovaldi is already--demonstrably--one of the success stories. It’s not like you're trying to guess whether he'll be one of the guys who blows up in the first 15 innings. He's long past that benchmark. You can’t treat him as on par to the average because he’s shown he’s not. The only question now is how much of an outlier he is and whether there’s a reason for it.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I'm assuming he's not the Game 4 starter at this point after his 2nd relief appearance.
My guess is that Price will try to rest him during Porcello's start and then be ready in Game 4 for a possible 3 inning appearance if Rodriguez gets roughed up at all at any point in the first 5 innings.
 

wiffleballhero

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I'm assuming he's not the Game 4 starter at this point after his 2nd relief appearance.
My guess is that Price will try to rest him during Porcello's start and then be ready in Game 4 for a possible 3 inning appearance if Rodriguez gets roughed up at all at any point in the first 5 innings.
IDK, Eovaldi is pitching in some high stakes, memorable moments, but he is not throwing a ton of pitches.

On Tuesday 10/16 he got the start and threw for 6 innings, 92 pitches. But that was nine days ago, and will be 11 before a game 4 start.

Since then he has thrown 16 and 13 pitches in the WS so far (where one of those days would be a throw day).

Also, he threw only 19 pitches in game 4 vs. Houston, back on Thursday 10/18.

If he does not throw at all on TH and Friday, Saturday would seem to be a perfectly good day for a start. 48 pitches in 11 days between starts does not seem like reckless usage from Cora.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
If he does not throw at all on TH and Friday, Saturday would seem to be a perfectly good day for a start. 48 pitches in 11 days between starts does not seem like reckless usage from Cora.
Especially not since that would certainly be his last start of the year.

What I might expect to see on Saturday is a tag-team game featuring Eovaldi and either Pomeranz or Rodriguez combining for six innings.
 

The Racoon

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If he does not throw at all on TH and Friday, Saturday would seem to be a perfectly good day for a start. 48 pitches in 11 days between starts does not seem like reckless usage from Cora.
Good point!

But I am also fully on board with Cora using him again in the 8th inning with a lead tomorrow, if they think the matchups are good for him. Even if that means, they have to piece together game 4 with Erod and/or Pom for multiple innings.
If they have a lead late in G3, use everyone and everything and care about G4 later.
 

SouthernBoSox

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Good point!

But I am also fully on board with Cora using him again in the 8th inning with a lead tomorrow, if they think the matchups are good for him. Even if that means, they have to piece together game 4 with Erod and/or Pom for multiple innings.
If they have a lead late in G3, use everyone and everything and care about G4 later.
I actually think the best course of action is to have him available in the pen in games 4 and 5 and line him up for a game 7 start.

I think, given the way the Dodgers offense looks against lefties. Rodriguez should get a "start"
 

Ferm Sheller

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Porcello starting puts the lefty hitters in the line up, obviously. I think they might go with Porcello until he gets in trouble and then come in with EdRo and/or Pom to force Roberts to pinch hit his righty hitters. The Sox’ right handed bullpen could then pitch the last 3-4 innings against the righties with the lefty hitters already burned.
 

joe dokes

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Porcello starting puts the lefty hitters in the line up, obviously. I think they might go with Porcello until he gets in trouble and then come in with EdRo and/or Pom to force Roberts to pinch hit his righty hitters. The Sox’ right handed bullpen could then pitch the last 3-4 innings against the righties with the lefty hitters already burned.
I do think that EdRo in relief after a righty starter, forcing Roberts to make a decision (let the LHBs hit EdRo or burn the RHBs) seems like a good idea.
I suppose Eovaldi probably can't go 6 or 7 in a Game 4, but I think he can pitch long enough to allow Cora to start him.
And, of course, a lot depends on what happens in Game 3. Maybe it shakes out so that EdRo can be a Game 4 reliever. Or maybe Cora goes all-in with bullpen Eovaldi because a 3-0 lead is within the grasp.
Whatever he's thinking, it seems so far like he's been at least half a thought ahead of Roberts.

Sox benefit everytime LA sits Bellinger & Muncy (and probably Grandal). Dodgers' big advantage and their approach is home run based. Taking 100 HRs out of the lineup seems sub-optimal. Especially since those 3's splits vs. LHP aren't awful.
 

joe dokes

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Porcello starting puts the lefty hitters in the line up, obviously. I think they might go with Porcello until he gets in trouble and then come in with EdRo and/or Pom to force Roberts to pinch hit his righty hitters. The Sox’ right handed bullpen could then pitch the last 3-4 innings against the righties with the lefty hitters already burned.
I do think that EdRo in relief after a righty starter, forcing Roberts to make a decision (let the LHBs hit EdRo or burn the RHBs) seems like a good idea.
I suppose Eovaldi probably can't go 6 or 7 in a Game 4, but I think he can pitch long enough to allow Cora to start him.
And, of course, a lot depends on what happens in Game 3. Maybe it shakes out so that EdRo can be a Game 4 reliever. Or maybe Cora goes all-in with bullpen Eovaldi because a 3-0 lead is within the grasp.
Whatever

Sox benefit everytime LA sits Bellinger & Muncy (and probably Grandal). Dodgers' big advantage and their approach is home run based. Taking 100 HRs out of the lineup seems sub-optimal. Especially since those 3's splits vs. LHP aren't awful.
 
Sep 13, 2006
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I'm assuming he's not the Game 4 starter at this point after his 2nd relief appearance.
My guess is that Price will try to rest him during Porcello's start and then be ready in Game 4 for a possible 3 inning appearance if Rodriguez gets roughed up at all at any point in the first 5 innings.
I absolutely love how Price has stepped up during his last 2 starts but I'm surprised that his role has expanded to the extent suggested in the bolded above! ;)
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Sox benefit everytime LA sits Bellinger & Muncy (and probably Grandal). Dodgers' big advantage and their approach is home run based. Taking 100 HRs out of the lineup seems sub-optimal. Especially since those 3's splits vs. LHP aren't awful.
I posted this in the playoff omnibus thread but Muncy has a really hard time hitting breaking balls and he kills FBs and cutters. Maybe this is the reason the Dodgers haven't started him yet.
 

triptych

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Maybe a plan of using a righty opener, bringing in Pom or Erod for one pass through the lineup (hopefully), then switch to Eo? With Davie's history of pinchhitting for matchups, this could put Eo in the position of going against the weaker, right-handed line-up without the possibility of left handed pinch-hitters.