Going back to the data we've talked about in the past, using drafts from 2000-2018 (this is to allow players some time for their careers to flesh out a little, so they have a chance of meeting the standards I'm about to set), I wanted to see how drafting QBs has gone. Obviously this is going to leave out some good QBs who have been drafted since then but again, we don't really know what their careers are going to end up looking like, so I'm cutting it off at guys who were drafted in 2018.
Some data:
230 total QB drafted
1st: 53
2nd: 20
3rd: 25
4th: 26
5th: 31
6th: 40
7th: 35
Now here are some criteria I'm setting for what constitutes a good career for a QB. These are, I admit, somewhat arbitrary. It's hard to know exactly what these thresholds should be. That said, here are the thresholds:
1x All-Pro - It's really hard to be an All-Pro, so if you get there, you're doing something right!
2x Pro Bowl - One time might be a fluke. Two times and you're probably pretty good.
5 years a starter - As pro-football-reference defines a starter. Five years is pretty solid.
100 total wAV - I am figuring 10 wAV a year over a 10 year career.
90 total games played - I am figuring 9 games a year over a 10 year career, or 15 games a year over a 6 year career.
In any case, here's what we are looking at.
Now to see what the average numbers are for the QB drafted in each round. So Avg AP1 means the average number of times a QB in this round made All-Pro. Avg wAV is the average total wAV a QB in that round has/had accumulated. Etc.
The "-TB" categories are meant to show the numbers *taking Tom Brady out of the mix*. Just to give perspective, because he completely warps any objective look at the data. He makes it seem like sixth rounders do better than they really do, and skew what you can project out of a sixth round QB pick. So for example, the average QB drafted in the first round is going to accumulate 54.34 wAV and plays in 92.87 games in his career. Compare that to the average third rounder, who accumulates just 18.45 wAV and plays in just 43.09 games over his career. It's obvious that on the whole, guys drafted in the first round are going to be much more likely to produce good careers than third rounders are.
Now this is the percentage of QB drafted in that round to meet these thresholds.
If you draft a QB in the first round, there's a 49% chance (based on this data) he will be at least a 5-year starter, and a 32% chance he will play in at least 90 games in his career. There's also a 30% chance he will be a 2-time (or more) pro bowl player.
What's interesting is that out of the 53 first round QBs drafted from 2000-2018, just 5 of them (9.4%) will ever make an All Pro team, and 16 of them (30.2%) will make 2 or more pro bowls. That means that 48 out of the 53 (90.6%) never made an All Pro team, and 37 of the 53 (69.8%) never made two pro bowls in his career.
So even drafting a QB in the first round, it's much, much more likely than not that you are NOT drafting a "franchise QB".
BUT...you've got about a 50% chance that that first round QB pick is going to start for you for at least 5 years (which is good), but that means that you're drafting a guy who will get a ton of snaps for you, but not be particularly good. But you play him because....you've picked him in the first round and you have to give him a shot. So there's a very real risk that you draft a QB in the first round and it actually sets your team back in the end. It's very risky, because (a) it's the only way, really, unless you get incredibly lucky, to get a true franchise QB, but at the same time, (b) it really can set your organization back five years if you draft a guy, commit to him, let him start and grow on the job, and he turns out to be...not very good. There's a very real chance that this is exactly what's happening with Mac Jones, by the way. Good enough to start for you, but not good enough to be a true franchise QB, and in the end, it sets you back.
Now, let's see how many guys in this list have achieved: 1x AP, 2x PB and 100 wAV for his career.
Five. Five guys: Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, and Cam Newton.
Of these guys, only three have won Super Bowls.
Of those three, only one has won multiple Super Bowls.
Now we know that Patrick Mahomes will get to these thresholds. He's already reached some of them. He's currently at 94 career wAV, so he falls just a tick short, but obviously we can include him. And Josh Allen will get there, and others too, barring career-ending injury. But since those things can unfortunately happen, we aren't going to include them in this list because they haven't made those thresholds yet. But OBVIOUSLY guys like Mahomes and Allen are true franchise QBs.
Some data:
230 total QB drafted
1st: 53
2nd: 20
3rd: 25
4th: 26
5th: 31
6th: 40
7th: 35
Now here are some criteria I'm setting for what constitutes a good career for a QB. These are, I admit, somewhat arbitrary. It's hard to know exactly what these thresholds should be. That said, here are the thresholds:
1x All-Pro - It's really hard to be an All-Pro, so if you get there, you're doing something right!
2x Pro Bowl - One time might be a fluke. Two times and you're probably pretty good.
5 years a starter - As pro-football-reference defines a starter. Five years is pretty solid.
100 total wAV - I am figuring 10 wAV a year over a 10 year career.
90 total games played - I am figuring 9 games a year over a 10 year career, or 15 games a year over a 6 year career.
In any case, here's what we are looking at.
Now to see what the average numbers are for the QB drafted in each round. So Avg AP1 means the average number of times a QB in this round made All-Pro. Avg wAV is the average total wAV a QB in that round has/had accumulated. Etc.
The "-TB" categories are meant to show the numbers *taking Tom Brady out of the mix*. Just to give perspective, because he completely warps any objective look at the data. He makes it seem like sixth rounders do better than they really do, and skew what you can project out of a sixth round QB pick. So for example, the average QB drafted in the first round is going to accumulate 54.34 wAV and plays in 92.87 games in his career. Compare that to the average third rounder, who accumulates just 18.45 wAV and plays in just 43.09 games over his career. It's obvious that on the whole, guys drafted in the first round are going to be much more likely to produce good careers than third rounders are.
Now this is the percentage of QB drafted in that round to meet these thresholds.
If you draft a QB in the first round, there's a 49% chance (based on this data) he will be at least a 5-year starter, and a 32% chance he will play in at least 90 games in his career. There's also a 30% chance he will be a 2-time (or more) pro bowl player.
What's interesting is that out of the 53 first round QBs drafted from 2000-2018, just 5 of them (9.4%) will ever make an All Pro team, and 16 of them (30.2%) will make 2 or more pro bowls. That means that 48 out of the 53 (90.6%) never made an All Pro team, and 37 of the 53 (69.8%) never made two pro bowls in his career.
So even drafting a QB in the first round, it's much, much more likely than not that you are NOT drafting a "franchise QB".
BUT...you've got about a 50% chance that that first round QB pick is going to start for you for at least 5 years (which is good), but that means that you're drafting a guy who will get a ton of snaps for you, but not be particularly good. But you play him because....you've picked him in the first round and you have to give him a shot. So there's a very real risk that you draft a QB in the first round and it actually sets your team back in the end. It's very risky, because (a) it's the only way, really, unless you get incredibly lucky, to get a true franchise QB, but at the same time, (b) it really can set your organization back five years if you draft a guy, commit to him, let him start and grow on the job, and he turns out to be...not very good. There's a very real chance that this is exactly what's happening with Mac Jones, by the way. Good enough to start for you, but not good enough to be a true franchise QB, and in the end, it sets you back.
Now, let's see how many guys in this list have achieved: 1x AP, 2x PB and 100 wAV for his career.
Five. Five guys: Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, and Cam Newton.
Of these guys, only three have won Super Bowls.
Of those three, only one has won multiple Super Bowls.
Now we know that Patrick Mahomes will get to these thresholds. He's already reached some of them. He's currently at 94 career wAV, so he falls just a tick short, but obviously we can include him. And Josh Allen will get there, and others too, barring career-ending injury. But since those things can unfortunately happen, we aren't going to include them in this list because they haven't made those thresholds yet. But OBVIOUSLY guys like Mahomes and Allen are true franchise QBs.
