Draft day musing on Danny Ainge

[JakeRae]

But he did blow two big ones: Olynyk over Antetokounmpo and Giddens over DeAndre Jordan and some other good players (e.g. Goran Dragic) in 2008. The Marcus Banks thing (picks 16 and 20 for 13 and 28) netted the Celtics Perkins at 28 but they could have stayed where they were and taken David West. So I think it's fair to give Ainge mixed reviews.

Picking a couple examples of passing on superior choices but making reasonable picks is not a valid basis to question whether he is a good drafter. Is the fact that the Patriots passed on Richard Sherman in 2011 to pick Ras-I Dowling an indictment of Belichick's drafting ability? Taking Taylor Price over Antonio Brown in 2010?

 

[Big John]

Is the fact that the Patriots passed on Richard Sherman in 2011 to pick Ras-I Dowling an indictment of Belichick's drafting ability? Taking Taylor Price over Antonio Brown in 2010?

Well, "indictment" is a strong word. All drafters make mistakes if they do it for any length of time. It comes with the territory. But NBA drafting mistakes are magnified because one player can have a much greater impact.

 

[Sprowl]

Picking a couple examples of passing on superior choices but making reasonable picks is not a valid basis to question whether he is a good drafter.

If we went back through the last ten drafts, and contemplated the superteams produced by ending up with the second-best draftee available, Ainge would come out pretty well.

Admittedly, Giddens was closer to the second-worst available. If I could hire a GM who always made the second-best draft choice available, it would be for a lifetime contract.

 

[lexrageorge]

Misses in the late first or in the second round don't really concern me all that much. After all, if the player makes it that far, it means a lot of GM's had already passed on said player. Even 14 GM's passed on Giannis.

Over a long tenure, a sound process is likely to produce more draft hits than misses. And it does appear that Ainge has had more hits than misses once one takes draft position into account.

 

[Koufax]

Here's the prior thread, which is actually from this year. It has a lot of detailed analysis which led one member to conclude, as did I, that he's an average drafter but an outstanding trader. Maybe Jaylen's uptick and the 2017 draft move the needle, maybe they don't but it's clear from the earlier thread that one or two examples of "but he missed player X, who was drafted later" mean nothing.

 

[mt8thsw9th]

The Marcus Banks thing (picks 16 and 20 for 13 and 28) netted the Celtics Perkins at 28 but they could have stayed where they were and taken David West.

Banks was a main chip in the deal that brought pieces for both the Garnett and Allen deals (and prior to that was in the Gary Payton deal until the physical fiasco). There's less than zero chance that West wouldn't have been included in the Garnett deal (but no one had him going earlier than 23-26 in the draft anyway). I don't see how you can quibble with that draft, especially given that Ainge was just a few months into the job.

Banks was arguably the better prospect, at a position for which the Celtics had a dearth of talent. Banks played well enough in the preseason that they were able to send Delk in the Walker trade that netted Lafrentz (who landed pieces for the Garnett deal), Welsch (who was traded for Rondo), and the pick that turned into Delonte West; he played well enough as Mike James' backup in the regular season to the point Ainge was able to spin James in a deal that landed the pick used on Tony Allen in the 2004 draft.

Given how many assets he's gotten via the draft and trade, they more than make up for any misses he's had.

 

[Big John]

Banks was moved in 2006 as part of the deal to acquire Wally Szczerbiak. None of the players acquired in that deal had anything to do with the Garnett acquisition, except that they had to unload Szcerbiak before the Garnett deal because they was no way Garnett was going to play with him again.

They passed on West because they had Pierce and needed a guard. That was a mistake because the team at that point wasn't good enough to draft for need.

 

[the moops]

Marcus had a lot to do with the Celtics not being good in 2005/2006, which led to them selecting # 7 in the 2006 draft. Randy Foye was selected and immediately traded to POR for Theo Ratliff and his contract. And without that contract, no Kevin Garnett.

 

[mt8thsw9th]

The first from that trade was in the Garnett deal. And what would Pierce have to do with anything? Pierce was playing the 2 at the time, and West could play 3-5 (and Eric Williams certainly wasn't blocking him). So if they do grab West since you seem to think Ainge was drafting for fit, doesn't that mean they aren't drafting Jefferson the following season and instead target someone like Jameer Nelson instead?

Banks and Perkins were always tied to the Celtics.

THIS YEAR, TAKE YOUR PICK MANY MYSTERIOUS TURNS EXPECTED IN NBA DRAFT: [THIRD Edition]
May, Peter. Boston Globe; Boston, Mass. [Boston, Mass]26 June 2003: C.9.

16. Boston: Marcus Banks, G, UNLV - Maybe there is no "deal," but don't you think it's pretty convenient that Banks shut it down after working out for the Celtics? And the Celtics need what he has?

20. Boston: Kendrick Perkins, C, Ozen (Texas) HS - Hey, why not? Ainge said he misjudged Jermaine O'Neal at draft time. This kid has size (6-10) and, apparently, the will and desire. A perfect pick for Ainge to put his mark on the franchise.

26. Minnesota: David West, F, Xavier - Maybe he goes higher than this, but, once you're past 20, you run into a lot of filled hotels. There's also a chance, supposedly, that Troy Bell might slip in here.

 

[Big John]

LOL, do you think that Peter May is proud of that analysis?

Well, Banks was part of the deal to acquire Szcerbiak, who in turn was dealt to Seattle along with #5 (Jeff Green) and Delonte West for Ray Allen. I suppose Garnett would not have come to Boston sans Allen. You can create causal connections galore, but the fact is that Marcus Banks was a lousy player and David West was an all star.

 

[bowiac]

Here's the prior thread, which is actually from this year. It has a lot of detailed analysis which led one member to conclude, as did I, that he's an average drafter but an outstanding trader. Maybe Jaylen's uptick and the 2017 draft move the needle, maybe they don't but it's clear from the earlier thread that one or two examples of "but he missed player X, who was drafted later" mean nothing.

This is where I was at before (average to slightly above average drafter, but among the best at evaluating actual NBA players and contracts).

I'll eat some crow here in that respect. I'm still a skeptic that Jaylen is going to develop into an impact guy, but he's looking like a player, and it's hard to say anyone taken 4-9 is clearly better. Tatum looks like a monster meanwhile, and Rozier's development has given the Celtics some actual leverage in negotiating with Smart.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

But he did blow two big ones: Olynyk over Antetokounmpo and Giddens over DeAndre Jordan and some other good players (e.g. Goran Dragic) in 2008. The Marcus Banks thing (picks 16 and 20 for 13 and 28) netted the Celtics Perkins at 28 but they could have stayed where they were and taken David West. So I think it's fair to give Ainge mixed reviews.

This is revisionist history though. When taken in proper context you have to recognize that the Celtics were NEVER drafting a 4 over a PG in that draft. We already had Antoine at the 4, had just completed a season with Tony Delk-JR Bremer-Bimbo Coles corpse at the 1 with 4 PG's available in that range of the draft. Ainge moved up so he would have his preferred choice......if he didn't draft Banks it was going to be either Reece Gaines or Luke Ridnour. Not David West.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Yep. I was bothered by the Giannis thing, too, but more because Ainge opted to go very safe (Olynyk) instead of drafting for upside. Of course, there were 2 high upside guys in that draft, one of whom (Giannis) has turned out a lot better than the other (Schroder).

You are omitting Gobert who was my choice at Olynyk's spot.

 

[Smokey Joe]

You know...This discussion has turned into my least favorite thread on this board. (Next to the "The Celtics should give up real live assets to acquire Jahlil Okafor discussions") I think that it is pretty clear at this point that Danny Ainge is a great GM.

If the plane carrying the Grousbeck/Pagliuca family reunion to St. George disappeared into the Bermuda Triangle, and ownership of the Boston Celtics devolved to a 3rd cousin who worked in a Walmart outside Atlanta, and he was convinced that Danny Ainge had been the one to bite Tree Rollins instead of vice-versa and hated him with the fiery heat of a 1000 suns and fired him, Do you think that the other team owners are going to be sitting around going "Well I don't know, he drafted Marcus Banks instead of David West in the 2003 draft..."

No! They are going to be racing each other to throw bags of money at him.


So personally, I think he is a pretty good drafter.

 

[Jimbodandy]

You know...This discussion has turned into my least favorite thread on this board. (Next to the "The Celtics should give up real live assets to acquire Jahlil Okafor discussions") I think that it is pretty clear at this point that Danny Ainge is a great GM.

If the plane carrying the Grousbeck/Pagliuca family reunion to St. George disappeared into the Bermuda Triangle, and ownership of the Boston Celtics devolved to a 3rd cousin who worked in a Walmart outside Atlanta, and he was convinced that Danny Ainge had been the one to bite Tree Rollins instead of vice-versa and hated him with the fiery heat of a 1000 suns and fired him, Do you think that the other team owners are going to be sitting around going "Well I don't know, he drafted Marcus Banks instead of David West in the 2003 draft..."

No! They are going to be racing each other to throw bags of money at him.


So personally, I think he is a pretty good drafter.

This.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

You know...This discussion has turned into my least favorite thread on this board. (Next to the "The Celtics should give up real live assets to acquire Jahlil Okafor discussions") I think that it is pretty clear at this point that Danny Ainge is a great GM.

This thread also assumes that drafting is a skill, which has yet to be proven.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

You know...This discussion has turned into my least favorite thread on this board. (Next to the "The Celtics should give up real live assets to acquire Jahlil Okafor discussions") I think that it is pretty clear at this point that Danny Ainge is a great GM.
.

Who's suggesting they give up assets for Jahlil Okafor? The vast majority of the board is against acquiring Jahlil Okafor for 0 assets. I'm in the minority as I'd love the Celtics to take a chance on the guy if all it costs is an open roster spot. I wouldn't trade any assets or use the exception though. I just think he could add some value off the bench if used correctly. He can score and if Rozier is having an off night, the 2nd unit really needs a guy who can score.

I'm guessing he'd also look better defensively on the C's than he has in the past and while not exactly great, he would provide the Celtics with another shot blocker. If all they have to lose is a bench spot that is already open, I don't see the downside. If he sucks, just cut him.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

I also think it's unfair to punish a GM for not picking the best player available. At the same time, if they pick James Young 15th and 8 or 9 better players go after that, it is fair to punish the GM. If 1 player is better? not so much.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

This thread also assumes that drafting is a skill, which has yet to be proven.

The related issue is that team context matters...a lot, in my view.

As with RPM discussions, people like to just look at the numbers/results from drafts and forget that the exact same players likely generate different results in a different situation. It's a huge advantage to be on San Antonio vs chaos like the Nets or recent Laker teams. I suspect it's a huge advantage to play for Brad Stevens, etc. This, and development implications of it, interrelate with drafting skill in a way I'm not sure we can fully determine.

Of course, some picks just stink in any context, too, but if we're talking about drafting skill there's a sample size issue, a team context issue, and few clear answers.

 

[RetractableRoof]

I also think it's unfair to punish a GM for not picking the best player available. At the same time, if they pick James Young 15th and 8 or 9 better players go after that, it is fair to punish the GM. If 1 player is better? not so much.

I'm a fan of Ainge, but not a fanboy. I do like what he has done - but then again I'm not in the draft room, or in any room where he is laying out his cards and stating his intentions/strategy out loud in order to verify that he's been successful according to plan.

If he decided that being an elite shooter (including 3s) was the skill he needed for the system he (or his coach) wanted to run and he drafted someone who supposedly had outside shooting to burn, I have no problem drafting Young in that scenario. Including if there were others with differing skills that turned out much better - if his criteria/goal was different at the draft then so be it. Young busted, it happens. But if he were trying for a home run with one skill (and I will never understand why Young couldn't consistently shoot in the NBA given how smooth his stroke was) and busted in that effort because he thought it was more important than the x number of players with better other skills - then I don't have much of a problem with it. A higher ceiling skill set seems better than a high floor when building to avoid the NBA mediocre middle tier.

The other thing that gets overlooked or maybe is just devalued is his approach. He always seems to be moving pieces, juggling, swapping, drafting/trading. One of the benefits of always collecting assets is the ability to take more chances in more directions because you have more shots at it. If he just stayed pat and was conservative he might have missed out on some of the flyers he's taken. We won't get the direct benefit if Zizac pans out, but Ojele, or Yabusele, Tatum. That's a ton of draft choices in a small window. I'd admit he probably didn't want to make all the choices, but he collected/bought the tickets - and that approach was intentional. If he continues to spin these guys into another trade (3 nickels and a dime for a quarter?) again, his approach will have brought him benefits - even if the exact draft choice wasn't a home run.

In some ways, he also has a lot of Red in him - do your best to make sure that the other guys have no idea what you are going to do. Because people didn't know his true intentions, he was able to leverage Philly into trading something extra.

I don't see where Ainge doesn't get at least a B+ for drafting in the context of building his vision of his team. And I'd throw out an A-, still within the context of the team building.

 

[DJnVa]

Someone linked this thread in an active thread and lord, I wanted to quote a bunch of the posts I just reread in here with a whole season's hindsight....

Like the one that said this:

You might be 100% correct. Jaylen Brown hits his ceiling and is Jason Richardson. Tatum is not Paul Pierce or Carmelo Anthony, but the next TJ Warren. Nice players who don't move the needle.

and this one:

Put it this way: people here balked at including Zizic and Brown in a deal for Porzingis. Jaylen Brown and Ante Zizic.

and this one:

You need an elite, young player. Porzingis is that. Tatum, Brown, etc. are not.

and this one:

With brown I will just shut up. He's better than I thought and in a great position to maximize his talent maybe he'll shock but I don't see what you guys are so excited about.

and this one:

for those citing the Memphis pick, again, its heavily protected the next two drafts. It'd be great if they crap out this season but if that happens we're not paying off for a couple years. I don't see much reason to think they'll be dropping to bottom 8 his season so I'd temper expectations on that one.

In short--yes, Ainge had more info than you did on Fultz/Tatum and what Brown could be.

EDIT: All in fun!

 

[Red Averages]

These are all just on page 1, but this is a fantastic read. Almost as great as the State of the Market thread during the Great Financial Crisis.

My view of Ainge as a GM has nosedived in the last week, but even I don't think he's stubborn enough to let Brown be a holdup in a Porzingis deal.

I made this point after the trade was made, but regardless of Danny's body of work, the downside risk on the #1 for #3 trade is so bad that it could potentially cost him his job. There's a very real chance that Fultz becomes a superstar, #3 does not and the extra pick is nothing more than a Rozier/James Young mid-first type. If that's the case he'll have potentially blown his chance at assembling a contender and created another one (Philly) in the process and that would, fairly or unfairly, destroy all the goodwill he's built up. He better hope he's right.

every part of the bolded is fantastic.

Ultimately he may end up being very similar to Hinkie in the draft, really. Very good at acquiring assets, but the actual picks don't really contribute as much as you'd like. I have defended Danny's draft record before but that's only in terms of not really missing too often compared to his draft spot. He also hasn't shown any remarkable acuity to pick out draftees, and honestly I don't have a huge amount of faith in them to be identifying Kevin McHale ahead of Joe Barry Carroll.

The better looking posts:

I can't imagine having a negative view of Ainge. He started in 2003 with one real piece (Pierce) and built a championship team within 4 years. When that was done, he tore it down and built another team that was in the conference finals within 4 years, again without any lottery studs and only one big name signing (and they were a near 50 win team before Al Horford), while at the same time accumulating a treasure chest of draft picks that is the envy of the league. I don't know what more one could ask of him. He's more than earned the benefit of the doubt.

...it seems he has the eye and has done the due diligence to make the call re Fultz v the field. He may be wrong but I trust his methodology. The guy is thorough..

Yeah, all anyone has to do is look at the roster in 2013-2014 and what we have now. Could Ainge have squeezed a little more value for #1? Maybe, we'll never know. But his overall body of work has been nothing short of awesome.

 

[tims4wins]

As much as a BB fanboy as I am, Danny is probably the best GM in Boston. In Danny I trust.

I’m a Duke fan/grad and having watching these one and done guys closely over the years I thought at the time Tatum had possibly the best pro potential of all of them - including Kyrie - due to his size, stroke, frame, etc. He is a joy to watch.

 

[Van Everyman]

Most of this anxiety and crabby commentary revolves around things we simply didn’t know at the time:

1) Tatum turned out to be one of the best 20 year-olds in memory.

2) Brown took a huge leap in his sophomore year (which in fairness, was teed up in the playoffs last year).

3) Rozier showed he could be more consistent, a starting PG and primary scoring option.

4) Ainge would move Zizic as part of the deal for Kyrie, who ended up playing a heretofore unseen MVP-level.

One thing this makes me wonder: is Danny Ainge a better evaluator of talent, particularly college talent, with Brad Stevens in the fold? And if so, was that not really obvious until this year?

 

[Eddie Jurak]

Ainge might also just be a better evaluator of top picks, which he hasn't really had until recently.

 

[BigSoxFan]

As much as a BB fanboy as I am, Danny is probably the best GM in Boston. In Danny I trust.

I’m a Duke fan/grad and having watching these one and done guys closely over the years I thought at the time Tatum had possibly the best pro potential of all of them - including Kyrie - due to his size, stroke, frame, etc. He is a joy to watch.

And Tatum, like Kyrie and Semi, just needed to get away from Coach K to realize his full potential

 

[Eddie Jurak]

It is interesting that the discussion around Tatum focused on his potential as a scorer, but that what he has shown as a rookie is potential to score yes, but also in all other aspects of the game. Looking to recent Boston history, his ability to step in and contribute as a teenager reminds of what Patrice Bergeron did as a rookie.

The year 1 to year 2 transition for Tatum is going to be very interesting. I think being on a team with a lot of talent means he'll continue to be able to progress in all phases rather than being pigeonholed into a go to scorer role.

 

[lovegtm]

Ainge might also just be a better evaluator of top picks, which he hasn't really had until recently.

I think Brad and his staff are also quite good at development of players with some elite skills. I think a lot of other top 5 picks would have done better with Boston, so it might be less talent evaluation, and more consistently good development.

There's also pretty clearly a profile they like in terms of length, athleticism, and IQ. The first two are obvious, but I think everyone remembers Jaylen getting dinged by some teams for being "too smart", when in fact that's turned out to be a huge positive that has allowed him to overcome a lack of innate basketball feel.

 

[DJnVa]

Most of this anxiety and crabby commentary revolves around things we simply didn’t know at the time:

1) Tatum turned out to be one of the best 20 year-olds in memory.

2) Brown took a huge leap in his sophomore year (which in fairness, was teed up in the playoffs last year).

Absolutely. But Ainge may have known--or at least had a pretty good idea--at what Tatum was and what Brown could be.

 

[JakeRae]

Absolutely. But Ainge may have known--or at least had a pretty good idea--at what Tatum was and what Brown could be.

NY recollection is that Brown having a very high ceiling was never really in doubt. His issue was a lack of performance, feel, and skills to accompany his athleticism. He was a pure projection pick.

I do wonder how much Ainge liked Brown versus hated the rest of the guys available. We probably will never know the answer to that. Ainge has gone to both extremes of the skills v. tools spectrum in his draft choices. I think the only thing we can safely say is that he doesn't like skinny bigs (Giannis, Bender). 2 years ago, that eliminated basically the only other player who was projected seriously as a top 3 pick, so it is possible that Ainge just got lucky with Brown.

This is part of why drafting skill analysis is so hard. Even with the successes, it can be hard to disentangle circumstances from luck.

In the interest of full disclosure, Bender was my pick. That was obviously wrong.

 

[lovegtm]

NY recollection is that Brown having a very high ceiling was never really in doubt. His issue was a lack of performance, feel, and skills to accompany his athleticism. He was a pure projection pick.

I do wonder how much Ainge liked Brown versus hated the rest of the guys available. We probably will never know the answer to that. Ainge has gone to both extremes of the skills v. tools spectrum in his draft choices. I think the only thing we can safely say is that he doesn't like skinny bigs (Giannis, Bender). 2 years ago, that eliminated basically the only other player who was projected seriously as a top 3 pick, so it is possible that Ainge just got lucky with Brown.

This is part of why drafting skill analysis is so hard. Even with the successes, it can be hard to disentangle circumstances from luck.

In the interest of full disclosure, Bender was my pick. That was obviously wrong.

I wonder how Bender would develop outside the Phoenix dumpster fire. I don't out him in the same bundle as Okafor, who seems to have no motor and was passed by by the modern game.

 

[TripleOT]

Picking Brown and Tatum has changed by opinion of Ainge's drafting prowess (big surprise, right?) He went from good at finding NBA players with low and mid first round picks, (TA, Delonte, Perk, Rondo, Bradley, Sullinger, Olynyk, Rozier) to excellent by getting consecutive top picks right in Brown and Tatum. The Smart pick at 6 was solid too.

I'm looking forward to seeing Ainge make another high pick this summer if the Cs get insanely lucky at the draft lottery, or the next summer. (or if he can spin Rozier and future picks into a top 8 pick in the stacked at the top draft this year)..