#DFG: Canceling the Noise
- Thread starter nattysez
- Start date
No chance of winning defamation and my guess is that there's at least enough smoky wood that he'd prefer to avoid civil discovery in pursuing an appeal or a suit in the event of anything but the most draconian punishment.drtooth said:
I've read the entire report, cover-to-cover.
Anyone who criticizes it had best be basing their criticism on what they've read, because there's no viable defense...even if the pre-game measurements were tainted.
The scientific analysis is irrefutable, and can only be critiqued if the information provided by Wells is substantially incorrect.
The Patriots footballs were deflated sometime between the initial measurement and the halftime measurement.
I won't go over all the details, and I'm welcoming a sober analysis by scientists/engineers and lawyers...but the killer is this:
1. There is virtually no window of plausible non-devious events that can explain the measurements of the Patriot's footballs at halftime. Not gauge problems, time problems, temperature issues, measurement issues...unless the initial readings were lies. BUT EVEN WITH THAT:
2. The deviations among the Patriots footballs are inexplicable unless what was supposedly measured as consistent with .05 psig before the game is not true. The Pats footballs deviated substantially from each other (particularly when compared to the Colts) with the logical explanation that their pressure at game time also deviated substantially with the logical conclusion that the pressure was altered without consistency (i.e., manually, with no gauge)
As for the non-science stuff. The text messages are extremely damaging. The only non-culpability by Brady would be if McNally wanted to purposely fuck him by doing what he did...which is doubtful. Still, I'll let lawyers parse the non-engineering portions. We're not talking about something that could hold up in court, however...just the most plausible explanations.
Read the damn thing. The balls were fucked with.
Anyone who criticizes it had best be basing their criticism on what they've read, because there's no viable defense...even if the pre-game measurements were tainted.
The scientific analysis is irrefutable, and can only be critiqued if the information provided by Wells is substantially incorrect.
The Patriots footballs were deflated sometime between the initial measurement and the halftime measurement.
I won't go over all the details, and I'm welcoming a sober analysis by scientists/engineers and lawyers...but the killer is this:
1. There is virtually no window of plausible non-devious events that can explain the measurements of the Patriot's footballs at halftime. Not gauge problems, time problems, temperature issues, measurement issues...unless the initial readings were lies. BUT EVEN WITH THAT:
2. The deviations among the Patriots footballs are inexplicable unless what was supposedly measured as consistent with .05 psig before the game is not true. The Pats footballs deviated substantially from each other (particularly when compared to the Colts) with the logical explanation that their pressure at game time also deviated substantially with the logical conclusion that the pressure was altered without consistency (i.e., manually, with no gauge)
As for the non-science stuff. The text messages are extremely damaging. The only non-culpability by Brady would be if McNally wanted to purposely fuck him by doing what he did...which is doubtful. Still, I'll let lawyers parse the non-engineering portions. We're not talking about something that could hold up in court, however...just the most plausible explanations.
Read the damn thing. The balls were fucked with.
it's more probable than not that america is at least generally aware that the new england patriots are defending super bowl champions.
Ball inflation is not important to the NFL. They used gauges that differed by as much as .4 psi. Anderson can't even recall which gauge he used. They are not required to record the psi as tested pre-gamed. And they don't even follow their own procedures. The procedures stated the balls were to be marked "on the laces". Anderson placed his mark next to word the Duke. This doesn't exonerate Brady and the equipment guys, it just shows that the NFL did not think this was that big a deal until the Colts complained abou it. Hence the penalty is - and will be - only $25k.
https://twitter.com/peteswire/status/596072687669223427
https://twitter.com/peteswire/status/596072687669223427
link to tweet
https://twitter.com/peteswire/status/596072687669223427
link to tweet
Did the NFL actually care about this rule prior to January of this year? I mean, in MLB for example, brand new baseballs are delivered to the umpires locker room, rubbed down by a specific attendant, and upon being taken to the field never leave the HP umps sight. It's wasnt a huge story, but MLB even made umpires responsible for removing balls from the humidor in Colorado after Brian Sabean complained. The NFL on the other hand decided to cater to the stars. Refs gauge the footballs and don't see them until close to kickoff. QBs are free to doctor/break-in footballs to their liking. The actual fine is 25K and I'm not even sure how significant that fine is by NFL standards. This is a league that fines guys 5K for wearing socks too low.dcmissle said:
I'll guess it's a 4 game suspension. Game 5, his first game back, would be against Indy and would generate near Super Bowl ratings. The NFL profits.
natpastime162 said:
Ref's don't "weigh" anything. Balls are gauged about 2.5 hours before kickoff. Read the report.
To me, it does look as the balls were tampered with and Brady knew about it. Let me put it another way. The balls may or may not have been tampered. But there's no way that that if they did, they weren't done so at the very least with Brady's tacit approval.
The problem is that the alleged crime is the equivalent of doing 60 in a 55.
The problem is that the alleged crime is the equivalent of doing 60 in a 55.
I haven't read the report, but I had hoped that Kraft would vigorously defend anything less than conclusive damning evidence, and rip the report to shreds. That he apparently is not and is willing to accept whatever RG hands down lead me to believe that it will not be hugely costly.
However the reputational damage is done.
The TB12 eventual press conference is going to be a shit show.
Next season should be fun.
However the reputational damage is done.
The TB12 eventual press conference is going to be a shit show.
Next season should be fun.
I'm unclear on a couple of your remarks:geoduck no quahog said:
Why must we accept an assumption that the balls were uniformly inflated at the start of the game? There's no evidence to that effect, or any reason to believe that anyone would have seen to it.
The text messages show that Brady requested that these guys make sure the refs didn't overinflate the footballs - when you say "by doing what he did," to what are you referring, and where's the evidence of "what he did?"
I've read the report. It's shit.
I read the report. I agree it's irrelevant to determining whether or not the balls were purposely deflated by McNally. I don't believe it's irrelevant to determining whether or not the NFL considered psi in footballs to be a serious matter before this incident. If it was that serious, I'm sure they would have used accurate gauges that didn't vary so much, they would have recorded pre-game psi, and they would have followed their own procedures for marking the ball (on the laces)geoduck no quahog said:
My understanding is that one of the assumptions used in the analysis on expected PSI difference due to temperate was that the Patriots footballs warmed for some time (edited, will have to find it in fine print have seen different times reported now) indoors before reading the PSI. If there was actually no delay in measuring the pressure (therefore balls were at outside temperature), then the report admits that temperature difference explains the PSI drop. This matches the math that has been explained many times before in this thread. I find it a lot more likely that some of their assumptions are a little off than that the patriots actually cheated to sneak an extra imperceptible .5 PSI out of each ball.geoduck no quahog said:
Also, I would just want to caution people on the accuracy and honesty of expert opinion on these types of matters. I have had the unfortunate pleasure to serve as an expert in a pending litigation and have gone back an forth multiple times against another "expert" that is nationally well known, and respected in their field. While nothing they are saying is technically untrue, this person is purposely manipulating assumptions in the fine print to drive a misleading claim, and this document/situation seems very similar. Many pages of garbage not related to the actual data to distract people, and the few key data points and assumptions are buried in the fine print.
Even the engineering firm they hired disagrees with you here. Their conclusions are based on the odd variable that they claim was set by the investigators. The first being that the locker room temperature increased by seven degrees between pre-game and halftime (counterintuitive as you would expect them to turn the temperature down if they were adjusting the climate of an empty room) If the locker room temperature is a constant 74, or a constant 67, or the balls were measured sooner b into the break then the readings are actually pretty normal. (and, yes, I've read it cover to cover and the Exponent section twice).geoduck no quahog said:
The fact that the text messages that Wells is betting so much on reveal a huge level of inconsistency in how the referees inflate the balls means that the pressure deviations also aren't all that abnormal.geoduck no quahog said:
So if the Colts balls were in fact under, where did Mort's leak of none of the Colts balls were under, only Pats balls were bad come from?
You know what Tom Brady is rich and is married to a beautiful woman that is richer than him.
Would any kind of penalty or fine really be that bad?
Would any kind of penalty or fine really be that bad?
ifmanis5 said:
I'm sure CBS would be real excited about Brady missing the game in Dallas the week before.
Yes. There's no evidence in this report, but it's packed full of baseless innuendo. Multiple breathless reminders that the bathroom "locks from the inside," and so on.Rosey Ruzicka said:
And after all the folks saying what a bastion of impeccable integrity PW is, this is not at all what I expected to see for a result, even setting aside the reckless unfounded conclusion.
It requires some serious Patriots blinders to read the report and not think the Pats did something wrong. Are you seriously getting into how many degrees it was in the officials' room at various times when you've got a guy on the Pats payroll calling himself "the deflator" and being compensated with equipment and autographs by Brady?
kartvelo said:
Yes, the entire science relies on both sets of footballs being gauged to within the accuracy of the "most preferable" (i.e., the gauge that best helps the Patriots) measurements. Wells and others state that this was done and there were witnesses. Still, the other damning evidence is (as pointed out) the large range of deviation within the Patriot's halftime measurements. This is not easily explained.
I guess one could read those text messages through rose-colored glasses...and I doubt my conclusion on them would stand up in court, but doesn't it seem to you that Brady was pissed about balls not being soft? There's texts that imply he and JJ were colluding about that. He clearly lied about not knowing the rules. Why all the phone conversations with JJ after the story broke, when he hadn't ever done that?
What psi was he deflating them from? Who were the leaks and why did they try to ruin the integrity of the super bowl? How many people did Brady give gear to? For a 200 page report, it answered very little in terms of integrity of the sport.nattysez said:
I think Brady probably knew and all that, but we sure could use some context on the autographs stuff. That could easily be read as a joke, and even if it wasn't, is it abnormal for players to give autographs to locker room attendants before the last home game of the season? It actually reads like a joke to me, though the other texts make it seem he was deflating the footballs, or was at least aware how Brady liked them.nattysez said:
JFC my boyfriend refused to turn off PTI when I asked- in the first 3 minutes, they've already brought race in ("after they've suspended so many black players, they have to punish Brady!") and are lobbying for losing a first-round pick, and millions of dollars of fines. In three minutes!!! Then I had to get up and leave the room because I was too angry.
Yes, but I am one of those "math" and "fact" type people that think that something as silly as "how many degrees it is in the officials room" actually matter to the PSI calculations.nattysez said:
Snark aside, I discount the texts to the point of almost ignoring them. In a separate litigation I have been involved in, many emails from a company were pulled. While the optics and wording in a few of them looked bad they really were not indications of any wrongdoing, but it did not stop prosecution from taking them out of context and implying wrongdoing. No amount of texts changes the fact that if you use the most likely temperature and time assumptions the the PSI differences are explained.
soxhop411 said:
I really hopes this happens. I mean there is no way Goodell is stupid enough to do this. The union would ape shit and the NFL would be opening itself up to an arbitrator which would be bad news bears for Goodell and the goof troop running the NFL
Rosey Ruzicka said:
I'll respond as best I can. I don't intend to be the report's only defender on the site.
Theoretical calculations take into account the time based impact on footballs re-warming during halftime. This is then backed up by experimental evidence. The Patriot's footballs were re-measured first. The total time lapse during measurements (from the time footballs were brought in - to the time they were re-bagged and brought out) was 13.5 minutes. There's a very small window of everything going the Patriot's way (condition of the ball, gauge inconsistencies, etc.) that if the Pats footballs were re-measured within 2 minutes of entering the warmer climate, the readings could be accommodated at the very edge of probability. It's very doubtful those footballs were all measured within 2 minutes.
There are charts that show the Colt's footballs measured exactly as predicted given the time-based warm-up (with measurements taken something like 6.5 minutes after being taken in - but still explainable if taken later). The Patriot's did not.
We're past that. It's the Patriot's.BoredViewer said:
And though I am dead certain his had no game impact, much the same can be said about Spy Gate. There we lost a first round pick (who cares about the fines).
The difference between the two are that we were not warned in advance as in Spygate, which is somewhat better, but also there is a player involved. An important one, which makes it worse.
Agree on the commentary that in Kraft's statement, he appears resigned rather than in a fighting mood. I dearly hope he has been tipped off on the likely penalty. I fear not.
This crowd mentality can be very dangerous when you have weak leadership. We impeached a President over lying about a BJ.
You aren't the only one who can read. Many in here have already read it cover to cover.geoduck no quahog said:
The scientific analysis is refutable - because it was based on assumptions provided by Wells. If those assumptions are off, then the science is off. For example, as posted earlier in the post release commentary - how long the balls were in the locker room at halftime before being tested would definitely affect the pressure readings - again the Ideal Gas Law. If they tested the balls at 2 minutes in the locker room, versus 4, the difference in those two minutes would most certainly show a different number. And then each subsequent minute means the balls yet to be tested were normalizing further. Yet, as stated above, that discrepancy alone is enough to account for a difference. Enough for the Pats balls to be well within acceptable limits for having started play at 12.5 psi. This means there would have been no tampering. No tampering, and the texts and all else are simply explainable as 'oh crap what is going on here' stuff. As I joked about above, if the officials called each other to talk, should that be construed as them covering up some failure to test pre-game?
Read the assumptions provided by the testing company. Up, down and sideways they spelled out all the assumptions they were working from. All provided by Wells. Garbage in - garbage out if the assumptions are flawed.
Further, if you work through the numbers in the various formulas and start changing them by 30 seconds, then a minute and seeing what happens to the output it clearly becomes obvious that it takes very little to get a variance to the numbers stated - and then stating that it is more than probable that an act outside of nature occurred is a gross mis-use of science. To then impugn any person who specifically has stated that his preferred preference is a legal 12.5 PSI, without any proof that he asked for lower PSI is irresponsible. [In my opinion, the report has texts indicating that Brady complained about the balls feeling like bricks during a previous game - and when put to the guage it showed they were 16 PSI. Assuming Brady wouldn't sabotage himself (nor Pats personnel), that indicates the balls were either tampered with by the opposition or by the referees over inflating them pre-game. I'd be more concerned with that - a referee tries to get a gambling edge by manipulating the game balls. It either matters or it doesn't what the PSI is. Hanging Brady out to dry over a disputable 0.5 PSI that he didn't physically create, but ignoring that another game involved balls 2.5 PSI too high is acceptable?]
The texting looks suspicious if framed the way Wells did, but it could also be framed in different terms if that is the message he wanted to convey. That said, the two Pats personnel look like morons.
I get that you are not a Pats fan, no big deal. But you don't get to state as 'fact' that something happened as a result of this report - there are plenty of problems with it. The biggest issue with the whole process is that organizationally the Patriots don't have an arbitration process with which to present these flaws - they have to accept the report - even if flawed/biased/whatever.
While I do think there's some smoke around the Pats doing wonky stuff with the footballs, the idea that Tom Brady was like handing out autographs and stuff to buy the gameday operators complicity in deflating the balls below 12.5 psi is pretty loltastic. Pretty sure he'd have just said "hey, let some air out of those footballs would you" and it would have been done without the memorabilia fest given the zero fucks the league gave about this process.
Well it depends. The report gives Kraft certain things; it clears him and BB from any complicity.Hoya81 said:
Now if Goodell were to attempt to suspend BB based on this report, you'd be looking at WWIII. I think you can rule that out.
I'm afraid you cannot rule out being stripped of a high draft pick. As for the TB suspension, the most effective club on that is wielded by the player and the union.
Hoya81 said:
There's nothing good for the Pats or the league that can come from appealing any discipline, and Kraft's a smart guy so he won't just start a fire to watch things burn.
On the other hand, Kraft probably is going to do everything in his power to get Goodell fired.
Like Watergate, it's the response that's more damning than the act. The problem is when there are seriously embarrassing acts that come out during disclosure, things that have nothing to do with the accusations (like JJ telling friends and family the signed football was the actual one, and not a sideline one). I fully understand why some things would be kept under wraps.
But now it's ugly. I'm afraid it has nothing to do with how stupid the whole issue is (we all know the scoring after halftime); and we now know more than one football team was pissed about Patriot's footballs. It's now about stupidity, and I think McNally is the stupidist of all.
But now it's ugly. I'm afraid it has nothing to do with how stupid the whole issue is (we all know the scoring after halftime); and we now know more than one football team was pissed about Patriot's footballs. It's now about stupidity, and I think McNally is the stupidist of all.
They only measured 4 of the Colts balls at the half. 4, you don't get to state that everything was groovy and only show 1/3 of the balls you want to use as a comparison. Any scientific review would throw this away as faulty. You are trying to generalize the science - and it doesn't work that way.geoduck no quahog said:
Brady 2 game suspension, loss of two paychecks
Pats loss of a 4nd round draft choice
Kraft must wear Jets green tie
Pats loss of a 4nd round draft choice
Kraft must wear Jets green tie