#DFG: Canceling the Noise

Is there any level of suspension that you would advise Tom to accept?


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TheoShmeo

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Amarshal2, Smith can participate in settlement negotiations even if he is not listed as a co-counsel in the case.
 

bakahump

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"what do you mean you didnt find anything.......Look deeper....there MUST be something."
 

nighthob

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amarshal2 said:
My totally naive take is that this is related to settlement.  If they're going to be coming to a compromise he wants to be involved in the discussions.  If there's no settlement then there's no reason for him to be involved unless they need him for his legal mind.
Wouldn't the NFLPA head need to be there anyway as a principal? Can any members of Sam, Horn, & Sons LLP offer some illumination?
 

Myt1

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There's a lot of those kinds of things here. "Are you lying or incompetent or leading a which hunt?" :) Tough trilemma

And sorry again.
 

SeoulSoxFan

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@PatsPropaganda just tweeted out this lovely pic:
 
https://twitter.com/PatsPropaganda/status/629386039728058369/photo/1
 

 
The level of deception, double-speak, and outright lies are getting more and more absurd each day. 
 

Harry Hooper

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It's been over a week, and we still Know nothing about Judge Berman's NFL team allegiance? Color me disappointed.
 

troparra

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I personally love footnote #44, which deals with the post-game ball measurements. Lots of uncertainties with the data, they claimed, so no science could be done. Luckily they had rock solid data for pregame and halftime measurements (though it is odd that having no actual pregame measurements is not considered an uncertainty). 
 
 
44  Although these measurements were recorded in conditions similar to those present during halftime, information concerning the timing of these measurements, the pressure levels at which these eight footballs started the second half and the identity of the four Colts footballs tested after the game (specifically, whether they were the same footballs that had been tested at halftime) is significantly less certain than the information about similar issues concerning the pre-game or halftime periods. As a result, our experts concluded that that the post-game measurements did not provide a scientifically reasonable basis on which to conduct a comparative analysis similar to that performed using the pre-game and halftime measurements.
 

Ed Hillel

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Bleedred

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Don Buddin's GS said:
Andrew Garda of Sports on Earth provides his Deflategate Liar power rankings. I'm not real quick on the uptake, so I had to read it twice before I figured out that down arrow = good; up arrow = bad:

http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/141507986/deflategate-liar-power-rankings-roger-goodell
The first comment at the bottom is a pretty nice takedown of the article:
 
This article shows why there is nothing Tom Brady can do to clear his name. Despite there being not a shred of credible evidence that footballs were tampered with, Tom Brady is quilty because the author believes he is. This article is textbook confirmation bias in the guise of fair and balanced reporting : "I find it impossible to believe that IF this was going on, Belichick didn't know." And this: "There's too much smoke for there to be no fire, and IF the balls were deflated, he knew. " For the author there is clearly no "if" at all. He has made up his mind and the facts, while perhaps inconvenient, long ago stopped mattering. The only thing we know for sure is the NFL has leaked incorrect information to compliant reporters and as the latest releases have shown, Goodell has lied. The NFL's misinformation campaign has created all the smoke the author refers to. But despite his concession that they cannot be trusted - where there is smoke there must be fire. Really? On one side we have a straight arrow QB whose wife once said of him, "Tom is the most naive person I have ever met." On the other side we have Roger Goodell and his record of abuse of power. This is so typical of what passes for journalism today. One side says the most outrageously inaccurate things, and all reporters can come up with is "a pox on both their houses". It is intellectually lazy, and morally pathetic.
 

drbretto

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Don Buddin's GS said:
Andrew Garda of Sports on Earth provides his Deflategate Liar power rankings. I'm not real quick on the uptake, so I had to read it twice before I figured out that down arrow = good; up arrow = bad:

http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/141507986/deflategate-liar-power-rankings-roger-goodell
 
It's nice to see more people calling out liars, but he's still rather sure of himself that "something" happened based on "deflator" texts. Baby steps, but I still find that infuriating. 
 

Leather

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drbretto said:
 
It's nice to see more people calling out liars, but he's still rather sure of himself that "something" happened based on "deflator" texts. Baby steps, but I still find that infuriating. 
 
That column looks like it was written a week ago.
 

Moosey

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In fairness, with pictures like Brady holding the goat I don't have a hard time believing he is quilty.
 
Seems like he would enjoy a good one to wrap up in.
 

m0ckduck

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Bleedred said:
One side says the most outrageously inaccurate things, and all reporters can come up with is "a pox on both their houses". It is intellectually lazy, and morally pathetic.
 
God, this perfectly describes the media tendency that I've found the most frustrating throughout this saga. Not the blatant liars, shills, hacks and water-carriers— those I expect and can live with. But the reasonable, thinking people (Charles Pierce's Grantland pieces come to mind) who can't quite bring themselves to call a spade a spade and instead abide in the 'shame on both parties!' stance. It comes out of a perfectly normal, skeptical conservative impulse— one that's perfectly understandable, and yet has done as much as anything else to sell the NFL's line to the public and (mis)shape public opinion. 
 

mwonow

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drbretto said:
 
It's nice to see more people calling out liars, but he's still rather sure of himself that "something" happened based on "deflator" texts. Baby steps, but I still find that infuriating. 
 
Is it my limited comprehension, or...isn't the correct term "'deflator' text"? There was only one, right? 
 

drbretto

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mwonow said:
 
Is it my limited comprehension, or...isn't the correct term "'deflator' text"? There was only one, right? 
 
One "They call me the deflator!" during the offseason and one "deflate and give someone that jkt" that goes with the away game pic. Technically, you're right. Only one of them says deflatOR, but it's two texts with a word derived from deflate. 
 

Investor 11

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mwonow said:
 
Is it my limited comprehension, or...isn't the correct term "'deflator' text"? There was only one, right? 
Two if memory serves me correctly. One during the Green Bay game where he said something to the effect of deflate and give the jacket. And the second one, where he commented that the only thing deflating was TB's passer rating.
 

ishmael

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crystalline said:
 
 
Edit: Remember, Goodell makes $40M per year.  I'd argue that luck played a large role getting him in that position -- luck to be the son of a Senator, luck to be mentored by Tagliabue, luck to barely win the commissioner election over Levy. I think we'd all agree there are dozens if not hundreds of people that could do an equally good job - maybe less good on short-term outcome of contract negotiations, better on player discipline, but probably better on long-term stability of the sport. It makes me crazy when people say guys like Goodell deserve every penny because they work hard. He's in that position in part because of skill, but in part because of luck and circumstance.
Even his daddy was lucky. Two political appointments (after the death of a sitting House Representative and Senator).
 

geoduck no quahog

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troparra said:
I personally love footnote #44, which deals with the post-game ball measurements. Lots of uncertainties with the data, they claimed, so no science could be done. Luckily they had rock solid data for pregame and halftime measurements (though it is odd that having no actual pregame measurements is not considered an uncertainty). 
 
 
Footnote #44A
 
44A  Although these measurements were recorded in conditions similar to those present during the start of the game, information concerning the timing of these measurements, the pressure levels at which these 15 footballs started the first half and the history of the footballs tested during halftime (specifically, whether they were actually gauged before the game, using which pressure gauge, and used under what conditions) is significantly less certain than the information about alleged issues concerning pre-game tampering would suggest. As a result, our experts concluded that that the half-time measurements did not provide a scientifically reasonable basis on which to conduct a comparative analysis, particularly when taking into account the Ideal Gas Law and transient effects.
 
 

twothousandone

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joe dokes said:
The situation doesn't arise all that often, but within that limited context it's not *that* rare for a  judge to say something like "I am constrained by precedent to find 'x'," or "If the court were writing on a clean slate, it might decide differently."  That said, the mine run of judges would likely avoid it altogether and go with something like, "even if a review of the evidence shows that deflation is unlikely to have occurred; that Mr. Brady's involvement is even less likely; and that the League's refusal to control media leaks was a reprehensible lapse -- all subjects on which the court offers no opinion -- this court's review is limited to x, y, and z."
If I'm right, the judge had all this information a few days before it was released. If that's true, he may have already come to the conclusions of many of the unaffiliated press -- Goodell is a snake. Does the timing offer the possibility that this is EXACTLY why he is pushing for a settlement? It makes sense that he says to Goodell "I've seen the evidence, and there is none. You railroaded this guy and the team. He's not guilty of anything, and you are guilty of being a snake. But you are allowed under the CBA to do what you did. Find a way to settle this, or my ruling will uphold your decision, while also highlighting with copious detail how wrong it is." And then says to Brady "I don't believe you did anything wrong. You're innocent of what you've been accused. But that's not the matter in front of me. In front of me is process, and what Goodell did is permissible under the CBA. If you want to be exonerated by this court, yet still suspended for four games, that's where we are heading. Reach a settlement."
But, I really don't have a good understanding of the standards for "notice."
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Don Buddin's GS said:
Andrew Garda of Sports on Earth provides his Deflategate Liar power rankings. I'm not real quick on the uptake, so I had to read it twice before I figured out that down arrow = good; up arrow = bad:

http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/141507986/deflategate-liar-power-rankings-roger-goodell
SoE has gone completely to shit since Pos left. They're articles are masturbatory drivel and I'm actually surprised hey let that comment through (though not surprised by the fact it had the author's bullshit rebuttal attached), as I've pointed out factual errors in many articles they've had and they never get "approved". A few weeks ago someone there stated that Nomar was originally going to Texas in the ARod trade and it took two days for it my comment simply citing the error to get approved, after the article had bumped off the front page and it was back dated. They are junk.
 

Myt1

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twothousandone said:
If I'm right, the judge had all this information a few days before it was released. If that's true, he may have already come to the conclusions of many of the unaffiliated press -- Goodell is a snake. Does the timing offer the possibility that this is EXACTLY why he is pushing for a settlement? It makes sense that he says to Goodell "I've seen the evidence, and there is none. You railroaded this guy and the team. He's not guilty of anything, and you are guilty of being a snake. But you are allowed under the CBA to do what you did. Find a way to settle this, or my ruling will uphold your decision, while also highlighting with copious detail how wrong it is." And then says to Brady "I don't believe you did anything wrong. You're innocent of what you've been accused. But that's not the matter in front of me. In front of me is process, and what Goodell did is permissible under the CBA. If you want to be exonerated by this court, yet still suspended for four games, that's where we are heading. Reach a settlement."
But, I really don't have a good understanding of the standards for "notice."
If the suspension is upheld, Goodell doesn't care why or what the judge says. If the suspension is overturned, Goodell doesn't particularly care why or what the judge says.

Everyone needs to stop thinking that Goodell will suddenly grow a sense of shame and settle for the purposes of avoiding having a judge point out what any person with an ounce of care for the sport or logic and reason knows: the emperor has no clothes. That cat is out of the bag with the release of the transcripts basically dragging the national media to finally do their job. The only way the NFL settles is to avoid precedent or to keep a suspension longer than they think they'd get with a decision.
 

Van Everyman

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One thing has been bugging me in the wake of the transcript and what Troy Vincent testified to about not including the science...

I'm sure this point was made about a thousand posts back. But how is it remotely possible that no one in the League office seemed to understand that temperature could impact the inflation levels of the balls? Doesn't every asshole with a car know that you don't overinflate your tires in the summer? Isn't this something everyone is told during drivers Ed when they are like 16 years old? Did the League somehow not think this applied to footballs?

I feel like for all our bellyaching over League officials and the media being ignorant of the Ideal Gas Law, at the core of it, this isn't exactly rocket science. It's pretty basic physics that the vast majority of people have some basic understanding of.
 

riboflav

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Van Everyman said:
One thing has been bugging me in the wake of the transcript and what Troy Vincent testified to about not including the science...

I'm sure this point was made about a thousand posts back. But how is it remotely possible that no one in the League office seemed to understand that temperature could impact the inflation levels of the balls? Doesn't every asshole with a car know that you don't overinflate your tires in the summer? Isn't this something everyone is told during drivers Ed when they are like 16 years old? Did the League somehow not think this applied to footballs?

I feel like for all our bellyaching over League officials and the media being ignorant of the Ideal Gas Law, at the core of it, this isn't exactly rocket science. It's pretty basic physics that the vast majority of people have some basic understanding of.
 
Or anyone who has left a football or basketball in a cold garage over the winter. That said, my guess is that no one really considered that a football could lose more than 1 psi in just a couple hours.
 

PaulinMyrBch

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Van Everyman said:
One thing has been bugging me in the wake of the transcript and what Troy Vincent testified to about not including the science...

I'm sure this point was made about a thousand posts back. But how is it remotely possible that no one in the League office seemed to understand that temperature could impact the inflation levels of the balls? Doesn't every asshole with a car know that you don't overinflate your tires in the summer? Isn't this something everyone is told during drivers Ed when they are like 16 years old? Did the League somehow not think this applied to footballs?

I feel like for all our bellyaching over League officials and the media being ignorant of the Ideal Gas Law, at the core of it, this isn't exactly rocket science. It's pretty basic physics that the vast majority of people have some basic understanding of.
 
And apparently these idiots who work in the NFL, some with heavy sports backrounds, still don't understand why the basketball they left outside overnight when they were 10 years old didn't bounce nearly as high the next day. Surely I'm not the only kid that was asking his buddies the next day, "does anyone have a pump and a needle?"
 
Edit: Ribo and I were mental sympatico, but he types faster.
 

EricFeczko

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crystalline said:
Totally agree with you.


But we should realize that this is what Exponent DOES. They get paid to take often flimsy facts and wrap them with in-depth statistics and science analysis, to produce a convincing argument for their client. The whole point of the report is to distract readers from the poor data with detailed statistics and costly experiments with engineering test rigs.


And they've basically pulled many of us in -- arguing more about the statistics than about the data and the conclusions.
While I mostly agree, I would quibble that you can use a statistically rigorous (e.g. via sampling/resampling techniques) approach to test whether the data are interpretable or not. There are two questions one can answer with statistics, "Is there a significant difference of PSI differences between the colts and pats balls?", or "Do we have sufficient data to determine whether their is a significant difference of PSI differences between the colts and pats balls?".

Of course, when one performs such analyses to answer the latter question, the answer is a definitive "no". Exponent did not perform such analyses in the first place. Ironically, the exponent statistician mentioned the importance of statistical power in her testimony and then in the same answer basically said that it doesn't matter because the p values are so low (which is just plain wrong).


The real problem I had with the report is that a) it presents a circular argument, which has been covered ad nauseum, and b) contradicts one interpretation of Wells' testimony (page 286-287):

 
 
You know, the first question we asked just
6 looking at the raw numbers, was whether or not there
7 was a difference. If you just looked at the
8 numbers, it looks like the Patriots' balls drop more
9 than the Colts.
10 And then the question is, is that drop as a
11 result of chance or something else? And so that was
12 the question about statistical significance, just
13 looking at the raw numbers. Because if they had
14 told us it's just chance, maybe it's not there and
15 you don't spend a lot more money.
I'm not sure what's meant by this last comment and unfortunately, kessler didn't press him on it (perhaps out of professional respect). One interpetation is that Wells' team started the investigation by looking at the statistics, and then proceeded with collecting the non-science evidence (e.g. communications, interviews, etc.). However, this appears to be contradicted by the exponent report, which states that the assumptions underlying the tests were provided by Wells' team, and these assumptions were based on non-science evidence. The other interpretation is that Wells' was merely referring to whether Exponent would be retained for further testing.
 
A simple question of, "When you say spend a lot more money, are you referring to further testing by exponent or evidence gathering by your team?" would have cleared it up.
 
This lack of questioning is an example of what bothered me about the experts on both sides and the line of questioning by kessler. Instead of focusing on the data, assumptions made, and whether Wells' biased exponent's report and was lying about it, they focused on experiments and analytic approaches that are really tangential to the question at hand.

This whole debacle is a great lesson in how NOT to use science, and how proper scientific method can be obscured by an avalanche of irrelevant testing.
 

twothousandone

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Myt1 said:
If the suspension is upheld, Goodell doesn't care why or what the judge says. If the suspension is overturned, Goodell doesn't particularly care why or what the judge says.
You don't think, and you don't think Goodell thinks, a scathing statement from the judge,even while affirming the decision, marks the beginning of the end? You think the owners will be okay with that?
 

Ed Hillel

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riboflav said:
 
Or anyone who has left a football or basketball in a cold garage over the winter. That said, my guess is that no one really considered that a football could lose more than 1 psi in just a couple hours.
The guy who should know is Kensil. He apparently "randomly" goes around during games to make sure everything is in order. Apparently football deflation has never been an issue or something.
 

Average Reds

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twothousandone said:
You don't think, and you don't think Goodell thinks, a scathing statement from the judge,even while affirming the decision, marks the beginning of the end? You think the owners will be okay with that?
It would be a short term victory and a long term loss. But Goodell and the owners seem to be thinking short term these days.
 

EricFeczko

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twothousandone said:
You don't think, and you don't think Goodell thinks, a scathing statement from the judge,even while affirming the decision, marks the beginning of the end? You think the owners will be okay with that?
Absolutely not, and many owners won't care. Goddell and many of the owners appear to lack any sense of self.
 

Tony C

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If they blandly lose, it'll pass just like all the previous overturns. But there's been so much attention on this and an increasing amount of attention on the NFL's lies and incompetence, that a scathing decision will be a huge blow to the golden boy's tenure. In other words: if there are soundbites from a judge that can be turned into TV fodder, then it'll matter. 
 

Average Reds

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Tony C said:
If they blandly lose, it'll pass just like all the previous overturns. But there's been so much attention on this and an increasing amount of attention on the NFL's lies and incompetence, that a scathing decision will be a huge blow to the golden boy's tenure. In other words: if there are soundbites from a judge that can be turned into TV fodder, then it'll matter. 
A "bland loss" would be far worse for the NFL than a victory where the Judge scolds them in his opinion.

This is a power struggle against the players union and he owners are used to getting their way in these matters. Victory is all they care about.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Goodell has already been scolded before in defeat, and it clearly had no bearing on future power abuses.
 

mwonow

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twothousandone said:
You don't think, and you don't think Goodell thinks, a scathing statement from the judge,even while affirming the decision, marks the beginning of the end? You think the owners will be okay with that?
 
 
EricFeczko said:
Absolutely not, and many owners won't care. Goddell and many of the owners appear to lack any sense of self.
 
 
Average Reds said:
A "bland loss" would be far worse for the NFL than a victory where the Judge scolds them in his opinion.

This is a power struggle against the players union and he owners are used to getting their way in these matters. Victory is all they care about.
 
(Collectively) this - Goodell is just looking to put a W in his closet, and if he does, he'll get attaboys from his bosses. It should be clear that the NFL cares more about posture than narrative...
 

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If Walt Anderson knew what a shitstorm was going to ensue, he would have guaged the damned balls!  I almost feel bad for him, but no.  He is one I'd like to see under oath.  
 
He should man up and admit he gave them a cursory examination, no gauge, and this whole thing is just a misunderstanding.  That, if it happened, might be enough to bring down ol' Rog.
 

Myt1

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twothousandone said:
You don't think, and you don't think Goodell thinks, a scathing statement from the judge,even while affirming the decision, marks the beginning of the end? You think the owners will be okay with that?
He was overturned and basically called a liar by a federal judge already. And he made the league a national laughing stock with the Rice debacle. The notion that a win with some mean language but that generally affirms the power of the commissioner is the line that must not be passed sort of ignores the historical record on this.

I mean, who the hell knows what the owners will do? But if their past behavior is any indication, this is less than nothing.
 

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Eddie Jurak said:
More probable than not, maybe?  
Means Anderson would have told a pretty big lie as a means of covering his own ass and would further mean he has no integrity to not stand up and say anything while watching TB and the Pats get railroaded, but crazier things have happened.
 

Eddie Jurak

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tims4wins said:
Means Anderson would have told a pretty big lie as a means of covering his own ass and would further mean he has no integrity to not stand up and say anything while watching TB and the Pats get railroaded, but crazier things have happened.
Yeah.  But it might have seemed like an innocous one at the time.  In the end, I'm going with "less probable than not", but I think it is at least plausible.  
 

tims4wins

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Agreed - white lie as a CYA and then the whole thing blew up and got so big so fast and he feared for his job so never spoke up. Possible, though not probable. We'll likely never know
 

Harry Hooper

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Eddie Jurak said:
Yeah.  But it might have seemed like an innocous one at the time.  In the end, I'm going with "less probable than not", but I think it is at least plausible.  
 
 
Given that McNally got up and walked out of the officials' locker room with the ball bag (unaccompanied by any official) both before the 1st half AND before the 2nd half of the AFCCG, it is way more than plausible! That was SOP on getting balls out onto the field, but Anderson turned that into an unprecedented phenomenon in his career on the order of the sun setting in the East.
 
Pre-game, they probably gauged maybe 4 or 5  of the footballs, and then let the rest slide.
 
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Immediately after donning the gold jacket signifying entry into the Pro Football Hall of Fame on Thursday night, former NFL G.M. Ron Wolf was congratulated by Commissioner Roger Goodell. And Wolf had a message for Goodell, as captured by the NFL Network microphones.

Way to go on that Brady thing, Wolf said.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/08/07/ron-wolf-to-goodell-way-to-go-on-that-brady-thing/

F U, Ron Wolf. Way to enhance your big hall of fame moment. (Unless you were slamming the commish, in which case not so much F U as Bravo.) Oh, and F U, Rog. Laugh it up while the walls, we hope and pray, start tumbling down. What a pair of DBs.

Edit: typo
 

tims4wins

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There are cameras in the Refs locker room, right? Because they have footage of McNally leaving twice. And the Pats have saved that footage, right? Why couldn't they rewind it a bit and check to see whether Anderson measured all of the balls (and which friggin gauge he used)? Why haven't I thought of this before?
 

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tims4wins said:
There are cameras in the Refs locker room, right? Because they have footage of McNally leaving twice. And the Pats have saved that footage, right? Why couldn't they rewind it a bit and check to see whether Anderson measured all of the balls (and which friggin gauge he used)? Why haven't I thought of this before?
Having cameras in the locker room makes no sense. I'd assume the cameras are in the hallway