#DFG: Canceling the Noise

[ifmanis5]

Wells is clearly incensed that a) Brady refused a second interview b) Brady refused to give up his phone c) The Patriots assumed a sting operation was in place d) People publicly questioning his previous ties to the NFL office and how that might affect his objectivity e) Brady's agent publicly questioning his conclusions. That's why we heard from him today.

 

[RetractableRoof]

Again, forget the science. Put yourself into an investigator's shoes. Somebody who calls himself the "deflator" disappears wit the footballs before the official gives him permission, goes into a bathroom and lies about it (twice).
 
What would your conclusion be?
 
And how would you interpret the data to conform to your conclusion? Maybe most of the balls weren't below 12.5 at gametime, bu that doesn't mean McNally didn't fuck with them.

There was a moron in my neighborhood who was trying to convince everyone he was smooth with the ladies.  He referred to himself as the "molester".  He thought it was funny.  By your logic he should have been arraigned for sexual deviance - even though most of us were pretty sure he had never been within 50 feet of a girl to that point in his life.  Would have enjoyed being on the Sexual Offenders Registry as well.  So had their been an actual assault in the neighborhood, you are ok with someone like him going to jail over his own nickname?
 
Do I think McNally was a moron?  Yep.  Do I think there are relatively innocent reasons for him to have called himself that?  Yep.  Do I think he may have monkeyed with the balls?  Yep.  Do I think Brady was stupid enough to EVER tell them to take the pressure below the legal limit?  Nope.  I think McNally and Jastremski took it on themselves to interpret a comment from Brady to Jastremski such as "the softer the balls the better baby", as license to be a team player and monkey with the balls a bit.  My personal guess is that on the day, he took just a whisper or two out of each one if he did anything at all.  Or maybe took a tad more out of ball #1 assuming it would get used more - that kind of thing.  Figuring that tiny little bit might be good.  And despite that - I think the ball pressure is still explained away by the science and the poor investigative work pre-game, at half time, and post-game.  I'm thinking the irony of the situation is that he did nothing of significance to the balls the day of the AFCCG and is getting nailed for the 'attempt'.  That said, unless you have Brady on camera somewhere admitting (like Rice years later and the stickum) he did it, I'm thinking he is too smart to have been that careless.
 
All that said, I think you can't hang Brady without proof.  I think he has no need to give up his phone/emails.  And that in my mind, given the league leaks, and the likely tenor in the room (when did you stop beating your wife Mr. Brady?), he was within reason to decline to give them up.  And I think that Kraft stood up and took the Spygate punishment like a man and made it clear organizationally he didn't want any more games.  I think the Wells report made it clear that no one above the player knew about it.  I think Kraft stood up and said the team was clean and wanted an apology because he believed that it was - which means to me there was no organizational pressure/culture to bend the rules.  To then have RG bend the Patriots over when he did everything he could to run a clean shop.  I happen to also believe the Florio leak and that the Patriots offered to make McNally available for a phone followup interview (#5) - and then Wells got pissed about that.
 
And for the record, big name or not - Wells has proven that he was the wrong person for the job.  His firm lists the NFL as a client and therefore never should have been labeled an independent/impartial firm.  His report is so biased in so many areas that it could be taken apart by high school students.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Discretionary policy issues. Whose discretion because Roger has stated he didn't know. Theoretically speaking 

 

Colts general manager Ryan Grigson emailed David Gardi and Mike Kensil, both senior members of NFL football operations team, on Jan. 17, the day before the AFC Championship Game, raising concerns about deflated footballs used by the Patriots, according to the Wells Report. The email included a note from Colts equipment manager Sean Sullivan. Gardi replied to Grigson, saying Kensil would be at the game and would speak to the game officials about the concern. Kensil forwarded the email to NFL director of game operations  James Daniel, who then forwarded it to “other game operations personnel who would be at the game,” according to the report. Kensil also forwarded the email to Dean Blandino and Riveron, both senior members of the NFL officiating department. Riveron and Blandino decided they would tell Anderson, according to the report.

http://nesn.com/2015/05/ted-wells-nfl-didnt-take-initial-complaint-against-patriots-seriously/

 

[drbretto]

Okay, at least you agree that it isn't the only question.

But how isn't it trying to gain a competitive advantage? You don't don't know their motive. What if they want 10.0 but failed miserably or didn't have enough time or only had a needle with no gauge?

Furthermore, I'd argue the illegality of the action far outweighs the reality of on the field competitive advantage.

This is coming from someone (me) who isn't convinced of anyone's guilt yet.

 
There's no evidence to even suggest that they want 10.0. None whatsoever. There is actually quite a bit of consistent evidence that Brady likes it at exactly 12.5. Everything that has come out of this has pointed to that. I'm an Occam's Razor guy, and that tells me that the most likely scenario probably IS that the balls may have been fucked with after they have been checked, but that they were more than likely corrected to 12.5, which may be illegal in a procedural sense, but certainly doesn't warrant the ridiculous public outcry, suspension, fine or loss of draft picks. It warrants a private verbal warning.
 
Separately, I can use Occam's Razor to believe that Ted Wells genuinely believes that he is correct, but simply doesn't understand the science. I think he literally outlawyered himself and I think that this whole thing is so utterly fascinating because of the absolute ambiguity of the situation and just how much can come from it, rather than an issue that has anything to do with football. This shit terrifies me. I'm not proclaiming Brady's innocence, but for the sake of argument, imagine he genuinely is for a moment. Now imagine it was you having your entire life's work nullified by a witch hunt. Having been accused of a crime I did not commit before, I can tell you that the idea of that makes me literally sick. It brings up flashes of Budd Dwyer.

 

[Reverend]

I'm starting to think there's an economic class translation issue going on here. Wells wouldn't joke about something like this in text, and irony doesn't translate so well in this sort of thing.

It's part of the reason why I had to give an urbandictionary.com cite to a former colleague show that a defendant was using his work email to set up a drug deal.

 
I posted a couple of days ago that the idea of this all hanging on a 65 year old litigator interpreting texts was kind of insane.
 
Anyone reading my texts in a straightforward fashion would conclude that I "hate baseball" and thought that "baseball was stupid."

They'd also probably conclude I was a sociopath.

 

[Myt1]

I mean, this quickly becomes silly when you use an expected value chart on the inferences piled upon inferences. Draw conclusions generally in favor of cheating and say that, based on the evidence, there's a 70% chance that McNally deflated the balls after inspection. Now say that, based on the evidence, there's even a 70% chance that, if McNally deflated the balls post-inspection, he was doing so on Brady's orders or with his knowledge.

Then, you've got a 49% chance that Brady knew that the balls were being deflated post inspection and you fail to meet your burden.

 

[Mystic Merlin]

 
 
http://espn.go.com/blog/indianapolis-colts/post/_/id/12052/ted-wells-there-was-no-sting-operation-with-the-colts
 

 
So his client - oh wait, sorry, he is an 'independent' investigator - is merely incompetent and short-sighted?  Great!

 

[E5 Yaz]

They'd also probably conclude I was a sociopath.

 
Anyone?

 

[Myt1]

I posted a couple of days ago that the idea of this all hanging on a 65 year old litigator interpreting texts was kind of insane.
 
Anyone reading my texts in a straightforward fashion would conclude that I "hate baseball" and thought that "baseball was stupid."

They'd also probably conclude I was a sociopath.

Yes, yes. You're wonderful, WE KNOW.

It was rather prescient.

 

[Super Nomario]

Right. And even after then, Five months later in October 2014, he wasn't doing a very good job deflating if the ball was at 16 for the Jets game. It's a piece of out of place "evidence" that is so far taken out of context that it's laughably easy to point out how weak it is.

Yeah, almost all the text message stuff is really weak. If McNally was illegally deflating balls all season, why was Brady playing with 16s against the Jets? And if they only started manipulating the balls in the wake of the Jets game, what does it matter what McNally called himself six months earlier?
 
I do think, reading through the science, that some (but not all) of the pressure readings of the Patriots' balls suggest they were not at 12.5 to start the game (even assuming best-case scenario with respect to the gauges). Whether they were tampered with (vs just Anderson saying "close enough" or another explanation) is another matter. It's worth noting, the amount of tampering would be really small, for the most part - the most "off" ball was less than 1 PSI different than what would be explained by the Ideal Gas Law. The average difference in pressure drop between the New England balls and Indy's is ~0.7, and roughly half that can likely be explained by time differences. If the Patriots did tamper, it was something like taking 0.5 PSI out of half the balls, which is pretty shitty tampering.
 
One funny thing I noticed: the ball D'Qwell Jackson intercepted measured at 11.45, 11.35, and 11.75 on three separate readings, which raised the red flags in the first place. This shouldn't have raised red flags at all, because it's in the 11.32 to 11.52 range that is entirely explained by the Ideal Gas Law. If the NFL officials understood physics, they never would have bothered measuring the New England balls.

 

[ALiveH]

I completely disagree.  Even if Brady were completely guilty (I don't believe this to be the case), the punishment is so disproportionately over the top & without precedent, that Kraft should still go full nuclear.
 
The league played dirty with leaks in the media.  The league ran a sting for an insignificant technical rules violation that was blown up into the biggest cheating scandal in decades.  The league endorsed the sting & the leaks, as evidenced by the fact that no one from the league's office was fired, rebuked or disciplined in any way.  In fact, they're probably all getting a pat on the back.  That means that the next time there's another insignificant technical rules violation I'd expect the hammer to drop again.  A first round pick here (spygate), a first round pick there (deflategate), and what's to stop the next fabricated scandal and unjust taking of 1st round picks?  The league is full out playing dirty and out to get the Patriots for the crime of winning too much.
 
Kraft should fight this with every dirty trick he knows.  Leak all embarrassing information to the press.  Tell Belichick to run plays towards the sidelines directly at certain coaches (whoops).  Hire private investigators.  Complain about every rules infraction by other franchises to the league office & leak it to the press.  He doesn't have much other recourse, legal or otherwise it seems.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Good theory, I think, but for point c. If McNally was surreptitiously trying to get balls at the right pressure after the ref check, I'd guess he was checking them by feel and using an inflation needle instead of an actual gauge to let a little air out when necessary. Doubt he would take the time to actually gauge them. Too risky. With experience, he could probably keep them close to 12.5 without a gauge, but given the speed and secrecy involved, I'd guess he wouldn't have the time to be precise.

 
That definitely seems plausible.

 

[Doctor G]

My favorite part is Wells admitting the league didn't take the original complaint seriously. Suddenly, after gauging (actual gauge does not matter!) which way the wind was blowing the day after the AFCCG, it's serious enough to warrant a multi-million dollar investigation culminating in the harsher punishment levied against a franchise in league history? Amazing how we got from A to B here.

This might have been a guick heel turn to cover Walt Anderson's rather weak pregame recollections and record keeping.

 

[Reverend]

Yes, yes. You're wonderful, WE KNOW.

It was rather prescient.

 
I was agreeing with you, jerkstore. I hadn't actually thought about the class dynamic though. Of course, non-attorneys don't usually think of attorneys in terms of class as distinct from earnings.

Now that I think about it, we probably should.
 
[Disclosure: Raised by a lawyer.]

 

[Corsi]

So, Schefter is saying Brady has hired Jeffrey Kessler.
 
From 2011:
 

The players will be represented by Kessler, who ran this decertification play before (very successfully) during football’s last labor crisis in 1992. But Kessler, by many estimates, is more than an artful illusionist who makes unions disappear: he is one of the most prominent and provocative lawyers in sports.
 
An antitrust lawyer by trade, he has represented not only all four major team sports’ players unions, but also a basketball player who choked his coach (Latrell Sprewell), a football player who all but wanted to (Terrell Owens), a double-amputee sprinter (Oscar Pistorius) and a female runner suspected of not being female enough (Caster Semenya).
 

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/06/sports/football/06kessler.html

 

[crystalline]

 
Kraft should fight this with every dirty trick he knows.  Leak all embarrassing information to the press.  Tell Belichick to run plays towards the sidelines directly at certain coaches (whoops).  Hire private investigators.  Complain about every rules infraction by other franchises to the league office & leak it to the press.  He doesn't have much other recourse, legal or otherwise it seems.

 
If Kraft is a competent businessperson, which we believe he is, this is exactly what he won't do.
 
You don't take actions like this without a goal in mind.  The first thing he will do is figure out his goals.  Then he will take actions to pursue the goals.  He won't fight with dirty tricks just for pleasure.    
The summary by Saints Rest above is a good list of possible goals.  I also hope he will choose #3 as his goal and direct actions toward this.  If dirty tricks help him restore some of his and the Pats' good names, he can then use those dirty tricks.
 
We will see.

 

[Corsi]

Kessler also represented Ray Rice.
 

Kessler's background shows why Goodell has reason to worry. Goodell usually rules on appeals of league penalties for personal conduct violations. When an independent arbitrator previously heard an appeal of one of Goodell's decisions in 2012, Kessler successfully argued that Goodell overreached when he suspended players in the Bountygate case involving the New Orleans Saints.
 
"Jeffrey is really effective at cross-examining people," said Joseph Mole, an attorney who has worked with Kessler. "It's a lawyer vs. a witness. The rules sort of favor Jeffrey. ... It's hard to avoid where he wants to take you if you're a witness."
 

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/2014/11/03/nfl-roger-goodell-ray-rice-appeal-domestic-abuse-jeffrey-kessler/18444863/

 

[Reverend]

 
So, Schefter is saying Brady has hired Jeffrey Kessler.
 
From 2011:
 

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/06/sports/football/06kessler.html

 

 
Anti-trust? Heeeeeeeeelllllllllllooooooo...

 

[Reverend]

 
Kessler also represented Ray Rice.
 

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/2014/11/03/nfl-roger-goodell-ray-rice-appeal-domestic-abuse-jeffrey-kessler/18444863/

 

 
There are like at least a half a dozen people who post in this forum that could have won the Ray Rice case.
 
Edit: Maybe a dozen. Might be more.

 

[twibnotes]

Security film was overwritten. They could not look at past game day security footage. At least according to the report.

This is insane if true. They were making digital recording devices for security nearly 20 years ago. Anything of importance ought to have a long shelf life.

 

[Corsi]

From 2000:
 

Bill Belichick sued the Jets and the National Football League in federal court today to free himself of his contract with the Jets. He will learn Tuesday whether he can pursue a coaching job with another N.F.L. team.
 
In the United States District Court in Newark, Belichick filed for a restraining order against the Jets and the league, both of which contend he is under a valid contract that prevents him from going to another team without the Jets' permission.
 
One of his lawyers, Jeffrey Kessler, who specializes in antitrust cases, said, ''Belichick is being prevented from earning a living.''
 

http://articles.latimes.com/2011/nov/18/sports/la-sp-nba-jeffrey-kessler-20111119

 

[Marciano490]

 
So, Schefter is saying Brady has hired Jeffrey Kessler.
 
From 2011:
 

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/06/sports/football/06kessler.html

 

 
Couldn't they at least get someone who went to Harvard?

 

[jsinger121]

Kessler is the real deal and will go toe to toe with the NFL on this one. kessler has a great track record of kicking the NFL's ass in court.

 

[judyb]

There's no evidence to even suggest that they want 10.0. None whatsoever. There is actually quite a bit of consistent evidence that Brady likes it at exactly 12.5. Everything that has come out of this has pointed to that. I'm an Occam's Razor guy, and that tells me that the most likely scenario probably IS that the balls may have been fucked with after they have been checked, but that they were more than likely corrected to 12.5, which may be illegal in a procedural sense, but certainly doesn't warrant the ridiculous public outcry, suspension, fine or loss of draft picks. It warrants a private verbal warning.
 
Separately, I can use Occam's Razor to believe that Ted Wells genuinely believes that he is correct, but simply doesn't understand the science. I think he literally outlawyered himself and I think that this whole thing is so utterly fascinating because of the absolute ambiguity of the situation and just how much can come from it, rather than an issue that has anything to do with football. This shit terrifies me. I'm not proclaiming Brady's innocence, but for the sake of argument, imagine he genuinely is for a moment. Now imagine it was you having your entire life's work nullified by a witch hunt. Having been accused of a crime I did not commit before, I can tell you that the idea of that makes me literally sick. It brings up flashes of Budd Dwyer.

How could someone as intelligent as Ted Wells not understanding such elementary science be anything other than willful ignorance?

 

[Bob420]

I still don't get why McNally was involved at all if he wasn't doing something illegal. Wasn't it JJ'S job to prepare the balls? Couldn't he let the air out himself and get them to 12.5?

 

[Marciano490]

How could someone as intelligent as Ted Wells not understanding such elementary science be anything other than willful ignorance?

 
I think this is why most lawyers here are saying it reads more like advocacy than an internal investigation.  Sometimes, your client is screwed and you just have to grasp at the best arguments available and shade the evidence as best you can within ethical limits. 

 

[djbayko]

Thanks for not only ignoring my point, but being a dick about it. Nothing you says addresses the comment in question, which is "the deflator" comment. So many people are pointing to it being a smoking gun and ignoring the real possibility he deflated footballs legally, which is why he called himself that.

I'm sorry you interpreted it this way. If you heard me saying the words with the tone in my head, it certainly wasn't meant to be a dick comment. I understand your post was addressing more than this, but I was interested in this part only because it wasn't until this afternoon that I've really heard many people calling post-ref deflation to 12.5 as merely a "procedural infraction" (another poster's words, not yours). It genuinely shocks me that people can feel this way.

If you're a ball boy, and your job is to deliver balls to the refs and try to persuade them to stick to 12.5 psi, there is obviously a reason you do that - because there is no mistake that they are the authority. If you then needle the balls, even a little bit and stay within the legal range, you know perfectly well that you are beaking te rules. I believe it's disingenuous to minimize this action.

 

[Ed Hillel]

Oh damn, my bad. See what happens when we try to interpret texts of others?

The more you know...

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

 
I think this is why most lawyers here are saying it reads more like advocacy than an internal investigation.  Sometimes, your client is screwed and you just have to grasp at the best arguments available and shade the evidence as best you can within ethical limits. 

 
And then call a self-aggrandizing and defensive press conference to double down on everything from the bottom of your heart.

 

[dcmissle]

 
Anti-trust? Heeeeeeeeelllllllllllooooooo...

He chairs his firm's practice in that area, but his general notoriety stems from sports law. Kraft is not hiring him, Brady is, and Brady goes not need anti-trust claim to punch his way into court if Goodell refuses to appoint somebody else to review the discipline.

Kessler made mincemeat of the NFL in the Ray Rice matter, but honestly any of us here could have done so as well.

Tom is in good hands.

 

[Bergs]

Yeah, almost all the text message stuff is really weak. If McNally was illegally deflating balls all season, why was Brady playing with 16s against the Jets? And if they only started manipulating the balls in the wake of the Jets game, what does it matter what McNally called himself six months earlier?
 
I do think, reading through the science, that some (but not all) of the pressure readings of the Patriots' balls suggest they were not at 12.5 to start the game (even assuming best-case scenario with respect to the gauges). Whether they were tampered with (vs just Anderson saying "close enough" or another explanation) is another matter. It's worth noting, the amount of tampering would be really small, for the most part - the most "off" ball was less than 1 PSI different than what would be explained by the Ideal Gas Law. The average difference in pressure drop between the New England balls and Indy's is ~0.7, and roughly half that can likely be explained by time differences. If the Patriots did tamper, it was something like taking 0.5 PSI out of half the balls, which is pretty shitty tampering.
 
One funny thing I noticed: the ball D'Qwell Jackson intercepted measured at 11.45, 11.35, and 11.75 on three separate readings, which raised the red flags in the first place. This shouldn't have raised red flags at all, because it's in the 11.32 to 11.52 range that is entirely explained by the Ideal Gas Law. If the NFL officials understood physics, they never would have bothered measuring the New England balls.

 
Have you read this?
 
http://drewfustin.com/deflategate/
 

 
...that data almost suggests that nothing nefarious happened at all! The average halftime measurement was 11.49 psig in Logo Gauge units. This corresponds to a pre-game projected measurement on the Logo Gauge of 12.83 psig. I'm pretty sure that's greater than 12.5 psig, which is the arbitrary limit the NFL set. In fact, only 2 balls were projected to be lower than 12.5 psig (balls 4 and 10), which can be explained in a bazillion ways other than cheating (and according to Occam's razor, those other solutions are probably more realistic).

 

[Corsi]

Schefter on Colin Cowherd:
 

"I received a text today from someone who's connected to this story.  It said 'Brady's team is unreal."  I asked in what sense?  They said "Talented, big name lawyers. Yee, Kessler, etc. Prediction = won't miss a game."
 

 
2:45 mark: http://espn.go.com/espnradio/play?id=12872927

 

[Doctor G]

 
The Occam's Razor explanation for all this is so simple: Brady likes the balls at 12.5, he gets pissed when they're overly inflated, he tells JJ to tell McNally to make sure it never happens again and that he should get on the refs about keeping them at 12.5, McNally does pester the refs pregame but also sometimes gets told to fuck off by them or doesn't trust them, and when that happens he takes matters into his own hands by remeasuring them and letting a little air out to get them to 12.5.
 
In sum, the most likely scenario is that:
 
a) Brady never asked for balls below 12.5 or anything shady, just to pester refs.
b) Dumb and dumber decide somewhere along the line that its best to take matters into their own hands just to make sure.
c) McNally may or may not have done something shady in that bathroom, but if he did it was probably just to make sure the balls were at 12.5.
d) JJ and McNally lie to cover their asses during the investigation.  This actually hurts Brady in the end as it raises suspicion and leaves the door open to a broader conspiracy.
e) Wells/Goodell are happy to run with this.  They know that Brady is the target, not some clowns in the locker room.  They purposefully leave out the most strenuous denials from Brady about ever wanting balls below 12.5 or asking for rules to be broken.
f) Abuses of scientific integrity are then perpetrated in the attempt to prove that the balls started below 12.5 when that was never even the intention and quite likely never actually happened.

i definitely believe this is  as close to what happened as we can guess. On the night in question the refs  did reinflate a couple of Pats balls. They may have asked Mc Nally for a pump. Mc Nally could have freaked out and taken the balls into the bathroom for a quick check with one of thesehttps://www.google.com/search?q=football+pressure+gauge&rlz=1C1CHMD_enUS394&es_sm=93&tbm=isch&imgil=sxEN69hOV9gwbM%253A%253BCr0Qf0MzxOWcFM%253Bhttp%25253A%25252F%25252Fwww.greenbowsports.co.uk%25252Ffootball-ball-pressure-gauge.html&source=iu&pf=m&fir=sxEN69hOV9gwbM%253A%252CCr0Qf0MzxOWcFM%252C_&usg=__jhEdZ5YrRQgKKHOBnJiiz3uawIQ%3D&biw=800&bih=457&ved=0CDsQyjc&ei=cWtSVZuzDs7isATkqoHgDQ#imgrc=KRq_moib3l3BRM%253A%3Bi5rNjJdhIvbygM%3Bhttps%253A%252F%252Flintvwood.files.wordpress.com%252F2015%252F01%252Fdefalted-footballs-ap-012215.jpg%253Fw%253D650%3Bhttp%253A%252F%252Fwoodtv.com%252F2015%252F01%252F23%252Fnfl-says-no-conclusion-yet-on-pats-deflated-footballs%252F%3B650%3B370.
 
If the refs in general didn't seem too interested in ball pressure,  McNally  might not have seen adjusting the pressure back down to 12.5  as some kind of capital crime, but rather as simply keeping his QB happy and  just as innocuous as  assisting the refs in their locker room.

 

[Hoya81]

https://instagram.com/p/2mKcXZLkUK/

 

[Omar's Wacky Neighbor]

Schefter on Colin Cowherd:
 
Prediction = won't miss a game."
 
 
2:45 mark: http://espn.go.com/espnradio/play?id=12872927

But wasnt that a very realistic possibility 24 hours ago, within minutes of the punishment being announced......?

 

[nattysez]

Separately, I can use Occam's Razor to believe that Ted Wells genuinely believes that he is correct, but simply doesn't understand the science. I think he literally outlawyered himself and I think that this whole thing is so utterly fascinating because of the absolute ambiguity of the situation and just how much can come from it, rather than an issue that has anything to do with football. This shit terrifies me. I'm not proclaiming Brady's innocence, but for the sake of argument, imagine he genuinely is for a moment. Now imagine it was you having your entire life's work nullified by a witch hunt. Having been accused of a crime I did not commit before, I can tell you that the idea of that makes me literally sick. It brings up flashes of Budd Dwyer.

 
Yes, imagine that.  And further imagine that you had the ability to call any TV or radio station and be on the air in minutes.  Would you really just tell Jim Gray that you can't talk about it and then stop talking to the media?  Or would take a helicopter to Bristol and look directly into a camera and say "I have done absolutely nothing wrong.  I never intentionally played with underinflated balls.  I never instructed anyone to underinflate balls.  The only thing I only told anyone was to be sure that balls were inflated to 12.5PSI, as required by the rules.  This entire investigation is a joke, and I will devote the rest of my life to demonstrating my innocence."
 
I understand that the penalty is ridiculous, I understand Wells's logic is badly lacking, but I also think it's a bit much to assume that Brady is 100% innocent given all the facts here and the way he's been acting.

 

[Reverend]

He chairs his firm's practice in that area, but his general notoriety stems from sports law. Kraft is not hiring him, Brady is, and Brady goes not need anti-trust claim to punch his way into court if Goodell refuses to appoint somebody else to review the discipline.

Kessler made mincemeat of the NFL in the Ray Rice matter, but honestly any of us here could have done so as well.

Tom is in good hands.

 
Ah, thank you for that clarification. And yeah, I think a lot of you guys would have killed on Rice--that's the wildcard here, in that it's not clear the NFL tries to do things that will stand up, but just that look "right."

 

[pappymojo]

I still don't get why McNally was involved at all if he wasn't doing something illegal. Wasn't it JJ'S job to prepare the balls? Couldn't he let the air out himself and get them to 12.5?

Have you never had a boss who assigned his work to you?

 

[LuckyBen]

But wasnt that a very realistic possibility 24 hours ago, within minutes of the punishment being announced......?

RG looked no further than that pats on the back that he was going to get from handing down the punishment. Wouldn't surprise me if his lackeys saw the same thing.

 

[djbayko]

 
There's no evidence to even suggest that they want 10.0. None whatsoever. There is actually quite a bit of consistent evidence that Brady likes it at exactly 12.5. Everything that has come out of this has pointed to that. I'm an Occam's Razor guy, and that tells me that the most likely scenario probably IS that the balls may have been fucked with after they have been checked, but that they were more than likely corrected to 12.5, which may be illegal in a procedural sense, but certainly doesn't warrant the ridiculous public outcry, suspension, fine or loss of draft picks. It warrants a private verbal warning.
 
Separately, I can use Occam's Razor to believe that Ted Wells genuinely believes that he is correct, but simply doesn't understand the science. I think he literally outlawyered himself and I think that this whole thing is so utterly fascinating because of the absolute ambiguity of the situation and just how much can come from it, rather than an issue that has anything to do with football. This shit terrifies me. I'm not proclaiming Brady's innocence, but for the sake of argument, imagine he genuinely is for a moment. Now imagine it was you having your entire life's work nullified by a witch hunt. Having been accused of a crime I did not commit before, I can tell you that the idea of that makes me literally sick. It brings up flashes of Budd Dwyer.

I was talking in general. Whether there is evidence in this case thsr they wanted the balls at 12.5 is irrelevant. Manipulation of footballs after ref inspection cannot be tolerated under any circumstances. While I disagree with severity of punishment, the Wells Report and it's conclusions, and how this whole issue was dealt with from the start, I do agree with Goodell on this much.

As a side note, I believe people rely on Occam's Razor way too much on this forum and especially in cases like this. It is obvious, just by reading the thread that people's opinion on the theory requiring the fewest assumptions can be quite different.

 

[Shelterdog]

 
Yes, imagine that.  And further imagine that you had the ability to call any TV or radio station and be on the air in minutes.  Would you really just tell Jim Gray that you can't talk about it and then stop talking to the media?  Or would take a helicopter to Bristol and look directly into a camera and say "I have done absolutely nothing wrong.  I never intentionally played with underinflated balls.  I never instructed anyone to underinflate balls.  The only thing I only told anyone was to be sure that balls were inflated to 12.5PSI, as required by the rules.  This entire investigation is a joke, and I will devote the rest of my life to demonstrating my innocence."
 
I understand that the penalty is ridiculous, I understand Wells's logic is badly lacking, but I also think it's a bit much to assume that Brady is 100% innocent given all the facts here and the way he's been acting.

 
Well if I were stupid I might do that.  If I were smart I'd hire a guy like Kessler and do whatever the fuck he tells me to do.

 

[RSFnFL]

Schefter on Colin Cowherd:
 
 
2:45 mark: http://espn.go.com/espnradio/play?id=12872927

Would be great if it happened. 
 
Is there any opportunity to getting the draft picks back?

 

[rodderick]

 
Yes, imagine that.  And further imagine that you had the ability to call any TV or radio station and be on the air in minutes.  Would you really just tell Jim Gray that you can't talk about it and then stop talking to the media?  Or would take a helicopter to Bristol and look directly into a camera and say "I have done absolutely nothing wrong.  I never intentionally played with underinflated balls.  I never instructed anyone to underinflate balls.  The only thing I only told anyone was to be sure that balls were inflated to 12.5PSI, as required by the rules.  This entire investigation is a joke, and I will devote the rest of my life to demonstrating my innocence."
 
I understand that the penalty is ridiculous, I understand Wells's logic is badly lacking, but I also think it's a bit much to assume that Brady is 100% innocent given all the facts here and the way he's been acting.

Which facts are those, exactly? And it's laughable to think Brady should approach this situation recklessly, otherwise it's reflective of his guilt.

 

[tedseye]

Good theory, I think, but for point c. If McNally was surreptitiously trying to get balls at the right pressure after the ref check, I'd guess he was checking them by feel and using an inflation needle instead of an actual gauge to let a little air out when necessary. Doubt he would take the time to actually gauge them. Too risky. With experience, he could probably keep them close to 12.5 without a gauge, but given the speed and secrecy involved, I'd guess he wouldn't have the time to be precise.

Whether by gauge or needle alone, Bird may only have wanted to check two balls, not all 13. Anderson ' s recollection per Wells report was that pregame he only inflated two of the Pats' balls. (Of course, he would need to identify those two.)

 

[Bergs]

 
Well if I were stupid I might do that.  If I were smart I'd hire a guy like Kessler and do whatever the fuck he tells me to do.

 
This * infinity.

 

[Bob420]

Have you never had a boss who assigned his work to you?

So JJ'S job is to prepare the balls. He does everything except let the air out of them to get them to 12.5? Brings in someone else that constantly complains about doing it and requires benefits and gifts to do something as simple as let a little air out of it?

Doesn't seem like a boss/employee relationship. Was he even his boss?

 

[LuckyBen]

Whether by gauge or needle alone, Bird may only have wanted to check two balls, not all 13. Anderson ' s recollection per Wells report was that pregame he only inflated two of the Pats' balls. (Of course, he would need to identify those two.)

The ESPN sports science guy gave an interview and I forget the exact numbers he used. But basically said to feel the difference in 2 psi, you would be able to squeeze the ball an additional half the width of a nickel total. McNally just seems so incompetent, I can't see him being successful in that time testing two balls, let alone 12.

 

[pappymojo]

Whether by gauge or needle alone, Bird may only have wanted to check two balls, not all 13. Anderson ' s recollection per Wells report was that pregame he only inflated two of the Pats' balls. (Of course, he would need to identify those two.)

Well is this something where we believe Anderson's recollection or refute it? the Patriots turned in under inflated balls with instructions for the refs to inflate them to 12.5. The ref used a faulty gauge that incorrectly showed most of the balls to already be at 12.5. The refs fail to bring the balls within spec. The balls are brought from the locker room outside where they are further impacted by the weather. Officials measure balls with non-faulty gauges. Voila!

 

[Mooch]

Andrew Brandt just tweeted that Jeffrey Kessler has been added to Brady's legal team.

Giddyup.

 

[geoduck no quahog]

Don't want to sound like a broken record, but bending over backwards to try and explain things in the best light possible doesn't help in a non-legal case...or in a case that only needs to meet "more probable than not" criteria.
 
The scientific data is inconclusive and can be interpreted by different people in different ways (which gauge, accuracy of gauge, temperatures and humidity, timeline, etc.). The damning thing is that the data was interpreted only in the worst case with not enough caveat to explain the level of uncertainty. That sucks.
 
But, again, McNally was never involved in ball preparation, That was Jastremski. Why would McNally joke about being "the deflator"? He's not supposed to mess with the balls at all. Why would he joke about blowing them up like rugby balls or watermelons? He's not supposed to fuck with the balls at all. Why was he fucking with the balls?
 
There's no quality evidence that the balls were deflated below 12.5. There's no substantive evidence that Brady ever asked anyone to break the rules. There's "more probable than not" evidence that McNally broke the rules.
 
There's substantial evidence that Wells/Exponent manipulated the interpretation of data to come to a bias conclusion. There's substantial evidence that the officials were culpably negligent prior to the Colts game. There's circumstantial evidence that the league was trying to ambush the Patriots based on snitching from other teams. These three things should be bad enough to provoke outrage - more outrage than McNally's guilt.