Peter King MMQB column today.
This is why Goodell should spare the rod:
1. Brady’s one of the greatest players of all time, an NFL golden child and ambassador for the game. There is no definitive proof in the Wells report that he ordered footballs to be doctored to his advantage.
2. Robert Kraft is a favored-nation owner, and he’s helped make the league a juggernaut.
3. Reading between the Johnny Knoxvillesque humor and texts from two Patriot employees, there is still no smoking gun among the 243 pages of the Wells report.
4. The league knows Brady will appeal any punishment that would take him off the field. Given the NFL’s recent record in appeals that happen outside Park Avenue (Ray Rice won, Adrian Peterson won), and given that there’s no smoking gun, I wouldn’t put much money on Brady having to miss any games. A suspension keeps the story in the headlines. The NFL always says it wants people to pay attention to the action on the field. Well, a suspension for Brady would put the attention, for multiple months, on a likely Brady appeal.
5. As Mike Reiss of ESPN Boston pointed out Sunday, there have been two recent violations regarding fair play with footballs. One happened last November, when TV cameras at the Minnesota-Carolina game in frigid Minneapolis caught footballs being warmed up by sideline heaters. That’s a rules violation, but the teams were simply warned not to do it again. In 2012, the Chargers were found to be using towels with stickum on the sidelines, presumably for players to be able to grip the footballs better. The team was fined $25,000. Is the presumption that Brady was using footballs about 1 pound per square inch under the minimum limit worth a multigame suspension compared to the other two violations? The other two violations were proven. This one is “more probable than not,” according to the Wells report.
6. Officials used two gauges at halftime of the AFC Championship Game to measure the air pressure in 11 New England footballs and four Indianapolis footballs. On page 113 of the Wells report, after a description of the scientific Ideal Gas Law (eyes glaze over), Wells says the Patriots footballs should have measured between 11.32 psi and 11.52 psi. The average of one gauge for the 11 balls was 11.49 psi, on the upper range of what the balls should measure. The average of the other gauge was 11.11 psi, clearly lower than what the balls should have measured. Average all 22 readings, and you get 11.30 … two-one-hundredths lower what the Ideal Gas Law would have allowed for balls that started the day at 12.5 psi. You’re going to suspend someone—never mind a franchise quarterback, never mind without a smoking gun—for an air-pressure measurement of 11.30 when the allowable measurement would have been 11.32?
http://mmqb.si.com/2015/05/11/dante-fowler-jaguars-tom-brady-deflategate-nfl-peter-king/2/This is why Goodell should come down hard:
1. As commissioner, he can’t treat the best player in the league any differently from the 53rd[SIZE=13.333333015442px] [/SIZE]man on the roster if there’s been a rules violation.
2. It doesn’t matter that Kraft is a cornerstone own
3. Brady should have handed over his phone, with a Brady/Patriots lawyer on hand to figure which texts/emails/calls are applicable to this case. As Mike Florio of Pro Football Talkreported Sunday, high-level staffers in the NFL office—and presumably Goodell—handed over cell phones to be forensically examined during the Robert Mueller investigation into whether anyone in the league office saw the Ray Rice domestic violence video before it aired on TMZ.
4. The weight of the circumstantial evidence against Brady and the two Patriot employees is heavy.
5. The other 31 teams are watching to see if Goodell treats the Patriots with most-favored-nation status, or like any other one of the NFL franchises.
Goodell will be a piñata regardless what decision he makes. (I know the league says it’s Goodell and executive VP Troy Vincent making the call, but this one’s going to have Goodell’s name on it. It has to.)
I continue to feel this way: I feel strongly that a suspension for Brady is coming this week, because of the time and energy and “more probable than not” evidence in the Wells report. But I keep coming back to the fact that there’s just too much gray area here, and too much doubt. I’d slap the Patriots with something, but not a potential season-altering suspension for the franchise quarterback.
My call: I’d give Brady one game, two tops, for failing to turn over his cell phone and the evidence within. This is too important to rely on half-truths and maybes. Goodell, who I believe will come down harshly, can’t listen to the noise. He has to listen to the truth, and the proof.