#DFG: Canceling the Noise

Is there any level of suspension that you would advise Tom to accept?


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Chuck Schilling

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Walpole Joe's Neighbor said:
More worms turning....
 
Science is on Tom's side. On Saturday, Patriots coach Bill Belichick gave a surreal press conference where he explained how the Patriots footballs could have deflated without any illegal action on his team's part. 
 
His explanation wasn't the clearest thing I'd ever heard, and I said so in a post covering the press conference. In response to my post, Kirk Hackett, a retired physicist who worked for the Air Force, emailed me to explain exactly how the Patriots' balls could have deflated even when the Colts' balls did not.
 
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/physicist-emailed-us-explain-exactly-143048032.html
I love how Dr Hackett winds up his letter:
 
 
Now, I have something bad to say about the media. You pinheads have been convicting Belichick and Brady without the facts or doing an investigation.

Some of you have even gone so far as to demand the Patriots be disqualified from the Super Bowl. Others have called Brady and/or Belichick a liar.

One of your colleagues at BI, Tony Manfred, is a prime offender.

In a just world, you the media, would be apologizing or get sued for everything you own. This was obviously done with malicious intent. Unfortunately, one of the more unjust aspects of press freedom is that the media is shielded from being sued by public figures. That leaves the media free, except by their own restraint, to lie, sensationalize, and slander. I have been noticing less and less restraint by the media.
 

TheoShmeo

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Stitch01 said:
I think Theo's point is that people make that implication because their jealous of success, which makes it kind of awesome, not that he thinks the Pats do anything wrong or that he thinks Spygate was a big deal.
Yes. 
 
The inch up thing was a FN to the main point.  The Pats are innovative as hell and are coached by the smartest coach in the NFL.
 
That creates awesome.
 
How about the low fumble rate?  The immediate reaction of the Haters is "see, the balls MUST be deflated; they would fumble more if not."  I love that we are so in their heads that they think that.  That it doesn't even begin to occur to them that BB drums into the players' heads that when they fumble, they fumble for 52 other guys and really the entire organization.  That players get benched for fumbling.  That coaching matters.
 

ifmanis5

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Ken's point #4 is great. The press is willfully not doing their job on this story. They're just waiting by the phone with some leaked news from the league office or it's a terrible hot sports take opinion. Literally zero actual reporting. Maybe talk to the refs of any league and see what they say since they control the balls all the time? Anybody?
 

PedroKsBambino

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kartvelo said:
1) Temperature affects pressure in all cities
2) Nobody has ever given a shit before
3) That's right, this happens all the time, naturally
4) No one can do that because no one's ever given it a moment's thought before
5) Bingo
 
The key thing to remember is that we don't have any evidence that game balls are regularly tested during or after games.  If they are, and what happened with Pats footballs is actually abnormal, that would be relevant....but so far as I know this is just an unknown.
 

LogansDad

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Chuck Schilling said:
I love how Dr Hackett winds up his letter:
Wait.... if the media can't be sued by "public figures", does that mean we can sue them for ruining the entire first week of the Super Bowl leadup for us?
 

ifmanis5

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For instance, the CFL. It's hella cold in Canada. Can anyone get a CFL ref on the phone and see how they do their jobs with keeping the balls in spec? It's like under 5 phone calls for that.
 

kartvelo

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LogansDad said:
Wait.... if the media can't be sued by "public figures", does that mean we can sue them for ruining the entire first week of the Super Bowl leadup for us?
Class action suit!
 

( . ) ( . ) and (_!_)

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ifmanis5 said:
For instance, the CFL. It's hella cold in Canada. Can anyone get a CFL ref on the phone and see how they do their jobs with keeping the balls in spec? It's like under 5 phone calls for that.
 
That would leave less time for the media members to spend at some free buffet.
 

KenTremendous

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ifmanis5 said:
For instance, the CFL. It's hella cold in Canada. Can anyone get a CFL ref on the phone and see how they do their jobs with keeping the balls in spec? It's like under 5 phone calls for that.
 
Exactly. This is science we're talking about. There have been thousands of football games played in cold weather, using footballs theoretically inflated at room temp. Even though the difference is tough for the layman to distinguish, there is no way on Earth this is the first time someone has noticed lower pressure in a football. I mean, for God's sake, how is some New England media outlet not testing this theory by having local high schools play flag football scrimmages in New Hampshire this week and testing the air pressure?
 

Hagios

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Hey, can someone please update the first post? I'm particularly interested in
 
* Bill Nye vs. Carnegie Mellon http://www.headsmartlabs.com/
 
* The rumor that only one of the balls was 2 PSI below, that the others were closer to 1. (I heard that on the radio, could be total hearsay)
 

Hoya81

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pappymojo said:
There was a post about 75 pages ago from a kicker who said that he has complained about this to the league repeatedly. Kickers like a firm ball. The kicker's balls are handled by the league. They set the pressure based on measurements taken in doors, but then for games played outdoors the balls get soft.
http://m.espn.go.com/general/blogs/blogpost?blogname=carolina-panthers&id=11945&src=desktop

Graham Gano from Carolina.


Proper inflation of the football has never mattered to the NFL outside of the kicking game, which is why they alone control the K-Balls.
 

singaporesoxfan

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ifmanis5 said:
For instance, the CFL. It's hella cold in Canada. Can anyone get a CFL ref on the phone and see how they do their jobs with keeping the balls in spec? It's like under 5 phone calls for that.
 
Here's the CFL rule book. They have the exact same 12.5-13.5 PSI range so it would be an interesting question.
 

 
SECTION 2 – THE BALL
The game is played with a ball made of Wilson Exclusive Game ball Leather in
four panels that shall be inflated to a pressure not less than 12 1/2 psi nor greater
than 13 1/2 psi. 
 

http://www.cfl.ca/page/game_rule_rule1
 

Jettisoned

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ifmanis5 said:
For instance, the CFL. It's hella cold in Canada. Can anyone get a CFL ref on the phone and see how they do their jobs with keeping the balls in spec? It's like under 5 phone calls for that.
 
The CFL season goes from July 1st to the end of November.  It doesn't get insanely cold that often during games.
 

DJnVa

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FWIW, as we wait for Florio to follow-up on his tweet about an "interesting" phone call, the Shark account is intimating that Florio's info is going to back up some of the things he's been tweeting.
 

TSC

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DrewDawg said:
FWIW, as we wait for Florio to follow-up on his tweet about an "interesting" phone call, the Shark account is intimating that Florio's info is going to back up some of the things he's been tweeting.
Has the Shark account been right on anything it's tweeted out so far?
 

DJnVa

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TheShynessClinic said:
Has the Shark account been right on anything it's tweeted out so far?
 
Well, until the NFL actually says what the investigation revealed, no one has been "right" yet have they?
 
My point is more that Florio is considered a somewhat connected guy and if whatever he's talking about backs up something Sharks tweeted yesterday, it would start to lend credence to what they've said.
 
You can believe or not, that's up to you.
 

Shelterdog

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TheShynessClinic said:
Has the Shark account been right on anything it's tweeted out so far?
 
The Shark hasn't tweeted anything confirmable that actually proved to be right.  The Shark account did say that the NFL had nothing about a day before BB went all Mr. Wizard.
 

DJnVa

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Shelterdog said:
 
The Shark hasn't tweeted anything confirmable that actually proved to be right. 
 

Yep. Of course, neither has Mortenson. Or Schefter.
 

riboflav

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KenTremendous said:
 
Exactly. This is science we're talking about. There have been thousands of football games played in cold weather, using footballs theoretically inflated at room temp. Even though the difference is tough for the layman to distinguish, there is no way on Earth this is the first time someone has noticed lower pressure in a football. I mean, for God's sake, how is some New England media outlet not testing this theory by having local high schools play flag football scrimmages in New Hampshire this week and testing the air pressure?
 
Also regarding BB's discussion of pre-game prep possible raising the psi of the football.
 
Have a car? Every driver knows when checking tires there are two psi numbers to consider - one for when the tires are cold and one for when they're warm. My Durango tires are 33psi when cold and 37 when warm. So, if I drive them to from my house to the gas station three miles away to check and fill my tires, I'm inflating them to 37, not 33 (because their equilibrium is 33 but the friction and heat generated artificially inflates them by 4psi).
 
Seriously, like everyone knows this, everyone but Bill Nye.
 

Leather

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pappymojo said:
There was a post about 75 pages ago from a kicker who said that he has complained about this to the league repeatedly. Kickers like a firm ball. The kicker's balls are handled by the league. They set the pressure based on measurements taken in doors, but then for games played outdoors the balls get soft.
 
Temperature absolutely has an affect on field goal performance.  Not said explicitly here if that's due to pressure or another factor, but it suggests there is something to it.
 

nighthob

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KenTremendous said:
But assuming that it happens everywhere, because, science, then there must have been numerous times when footballs either had to be reinflated or were noticeably softer than those in Foxborough were last week. So...where are those stories/people? I want to hear from them.
I doubt that head coaches have played this trick before. And filling balls at the half might just be unique here. Up until now the procedure has been to submit them to the refs before the game for testing and that was the end of it.
 

MuellerMen

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Yossarian said:
tl;dr:
Nerds are not supposed to be good at football.
 
I actually think this is a surprisingly large part of the undercurrent against the Patriots and Belichick specifically.  At least from a public persona vantage point, he's the zenith of solving problems through cold intellect -- in terms of formations, game plans, draft maneuvering, and letting much-loved players go when it is their "time" or even beginning to look like their "time."  It's the opposite of the story we tell ourselves about how success is achieved in the NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE!!!1!, in which some combination of heart, instinct, and pure toughness is always responsible for a win -- and the absence of same is responsible for losses.  Belichick is relentlessly logical and practical in a sport that prides itself--from players, to fans, and even coaching and management to some extent--on red-blooded passion.  And the fact that he has unprecedented success with it MUST mean that something nefarious is involved.
 
Of course, the reality is far more complicated than that, but as we have to keep learning over and over again, complicated narratives don't lead SportsCenter and don't trend on Twitter.
This.  Great point.
 

Jettisoned

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riboflav said:
 
Also regarding BB's discussion of pre-game prep possible raising the psi of the football.
 
Have a car? Every driver knows when checking tires there are two psi numbers to consider - one for when the tires are cold and one for when they're warm. My Durango tires are 33psi when cold and 37 when warm. So, if I drive them to from my house to the gas station three miles away to check and fill my tires, I'm inflating them to 37, not 33 (because their equilibrium is 33 but the friction and heat generated artificially inflates them by 4psi).
 
Seriously, like everyone knows this, everyone but Bill Nye.
 
Also worth emphasizing that the tires are warmed by the friction between the tires and the road.  So yeah, rubbing the football could absolutely warm it.  Pretty depressing that a "prominent scientific expert" like Bill Nye doesn't even get this.  What's extra depressing is that being on TV looking geeky in a labcoat and bowtie makes you a scientific expert on everything in the minds of most Americans.
 

Devizier

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KenTremendous said:
 
Exactly. This is science we're talking about. There have been thousands of football games played in cold weather, using footballs theoretically inflated at room temp. Even though the difference is tough for the layman to distinguish, there is no way on Earth this is the first time someone has noticed lower pressure in a football. I mean, for God's sake, how is some New England media outlet not testing this theory by having local high schools play flag football scrimmages in New Hampshire this week and testing the air pressure?
 
Assuming you're the Ken Tremendous that I think you are, you know exactly why: Joe Morgan. laziness.
 
ETA: Money, cost/reward, etc. too.
 

Leather

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I think the Bill Nye thing is that he didn't even really respond with science; his response was basically "I'm a Seahawks fan, this isn't my problem; suck it Belichick!" 
 
Of course, he should have known that his non-response would be interpreted as a strict statement of scientific fact, because he's "the science guy." 
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Jettisoned said:
 
Also worth emphasizing that the tires are warmed by the friction between the tires and the road.  So yeah, rubbing the football could absolutely warm it.  Pretty depressing that a "prominent scientific expert" like Bill Nye doesn't even get this.  What's extra depressing is that being on TV looking geeky in a labcoat and bowtie makes you a scientific expert on everything in the minds of most Americans.
 
So you're saying Belichick should have come out dressed like Bunson Honeydew?
 

nighthob

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Jettisoned said:
Also worth emphasizing that the tires are warmed by the friction between the tires and the road.  So yeah, rubbing the football could absolutely warm it.  Pretty depressing that a "prominent scientific expert" like Bill Nye doesn't even get this.  What's extra depressing is that being on TV looking geeky in a labcoat and bowtie makes you a scientific expert on everything in the minds of most Americans.
While they're shaving with their brand new Occam's Razor.
 

Leather

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KenTremendous said:
 
Exactly. This is science we're talking about. There have been thousands of football games played in cold weather, using footballs theoretically inflated at room temp. Even though the difference is tough for the layman to distinguish, there is no way on Earth this is the first time someone has noticed lower pressure in a football. I mean, for God's sake, how is some New England media outlet not testing this theory by having local high schools play flag football scrimmages in New Hampshire this week and testing the air pressure?
 
ESPN itself did a study finding that Belichick was right (it was done prior to BB's press conference), and then took it down after Bill Nye trolled everyone.
 

Devizier

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drleather2001 said:
I think the Bill Nye thing is that he didn't even really respond with science; his response was basically "I'm a Seahawks fan, this isn't my problem; suck it Belichick!" 
 
Of course, he should have known that his non-response would be interpreted as a strict statement of scientific fact, because he's "the science guy." 
 
Yep, that piece was just a little bit of gentle ribbing from Nye. But he dropped that shit into a maelstrom of American Stupid, so that's what happens.
 

Stitch01

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Actually agree with todays Barstool hottake, if the Pats really did nothing wrong they shouldn't just let the NFL Friday news release this one away in the offseason.  Should have BB holding a press conference every week keeping this one on the front burner.
 

simplyeric

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kartvelo said:
Jesus Christ. Name one "line" that the Pats have "inched up to."
It's infuriating to me that even posters here will state repeatedly that the Pats are skirting the edges of the rules without providing one example of them skirting one fucking rule..
 
 
Like it or not, "Spygate" was that.
 
It was a completely arbitrary, stupid, and immaterial line, that had no impact whatsoever on anything.
 
But there was a line there, and it was crossed.  
 
It's just one of those stupid-ass things.  It technically crossed the line.  There's no getting around it.
 

Jettisoned

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ifmanis5 said:
True, end of November in Canada is like a sauna. Come on.
 
The regular season is done by early November and most of the Grey Cup games have been held in Toronto or Hamilton, which both have climates that are very slightly colder than Boston.  The coldest city with a CFL team is Edmonton, and the average daytime high temperature in early November there is about 40F.
 
It gets cold for CFL games sometimes here but it's not like that often enough for the referees to be experts about ball pressure fluctuations.  Also no one here would give a single shit about something like this.
 
 

djbayko

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drleather2001 said:
I think the Bill Nye thing is that he didn't even really respond with science; his response was basically "I'm a Seahawks fan, this isn't my problem; suck it Belichick!" 
 
Of course, he should have known that his non-response would be interpreted as a strict statement of scientific fact, because he's "the science guy." 
 
I also think Nye wasn't being creative enough.  He's envisioning a person sitting there rubbing a ball by hand.  I agree that it's pretty unbelievable that action would warm up the ball enough to affect the pressure by 1 psi, unless it was Superman.  However, if the team is using a lathe-like machine, for example, now we're getting somewhere.  I'd imagine such an approach is being used, considering they need to break in 12-24 balls per game (and probably more, given Tom's statement that he picks his favorites during the week).
 

SMU_Sox

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You know what? I'm at the point where I'm going to Troal Dahl. Listen, you moron(s). I'm smart and you're dumb. I have science and you have a lot of air between your ears that is rapidly deflating. I'm right and you're wrong and there is nothing you can do about it.
And if you don't have the minerals or the brains to talk about this without blathering like a raving tin foil hat lunatic then jog on. I'm done. See you after the Pats win. I'm out.
Until the NFL releases something one way or the other this travesty of journalism has gone on long enough.
 

Leather

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djbayko said:
 
I also think Nye wasn't being creative enough.  He's envisioning a person sitting there rubbing a ball by hand.  I agree that it's pretty unbelievable that action would warm up the ball enough to affect the pressure by 1 psi, unless it was Superman.  However, if the team is using a lathe-like machine, for example, now we're getting somewhere.  I'd imagine such an approach is being used, considering they need to break in 12-24 balls per game (and probably more, given Tom's statement that he picks his favorites during the week).
 
I'd wager he never actually watched the press conference; that someone (ESPN) told him something like:
 
"Hey, so Belichick is saying the Pats are off the hook because the Patriots rub their ball really vigorously before the measurement, or something. Care to comment?"
 

kartvelo

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djbayko said:
 
I also think Nye wasn't being creative enough.  He's envisioning a person sitting there rubbing a ball by hand.  I agree that it's pretty unbelievable that action would warm up the ball enough to affect the pressure by 1 psi, unless it was Superman.  However, if the team is using a lathe-like machine, for example, now we're getting somewhere.  I'd imagine such an approach is being used, considering they need to break in 12-24 balls per game (and probably more, given Tom's statement that he picks his favorites during the week).
He was joking. He had no clue what he was stepping into. He may not even be aware of what came of it.
 

Steve Dillard

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The science being in dispute is merely frosting on the main point. It's the ref's duty to make sure the ball is at least 12.5

The media's focus on the frosting, and what Bill Nye vs. Carnegie Mellon vs. MIT has to say about those interesting subtle points misses the most basic part of what Bill said.
 
“When the footballs are delivered to the officials’ locker room, the officials were asked to inflate them to 12.5 PSI,” Belichick said. “What exactly they did, I don’t know. But for the purposes of our study, that’s what we did. We set them at 12.5. That’s at the discretion of the official, though. Regardless of what we ask for, it’s the official’s discretion to put them where he wants.”
Mike Florio is exactly right:
So who inflates the footballs? Thursday’s “I have no explanation” Bill Belichick made clear it’s the team that was putting the minimum required amount of 12.5 PSI into the balls before the game, and that any naturally-occurring deflation was necessarily taking the footballs under the low end of the one-pound acceptable range from 12.5 to 13.5 PSI. Saturday’s “I have an extensive explanation” Bill Belichick said the Patriots simply ask the officials to inflate the footballs to 12.5 PSI, but that it’s ultimately the “official’s discretion” as to how much air will be put in the footballs.
I think the clear "legal" answer is its the ref's job.
 
"The Referee shall be the sole judge as to whether all balls offered for play comply with these specifications. A pump is to be furnished by the home club, and the balls shall remain under the supervision of the Referee until they are delivered to the ball attendant just prior to the start of the game."
I think the "science" frosting was just added to provide cover for the fact that the Pats only got them close to the lower range, so that any fluctuation could bring them under. They could have said "the balls we gave them probably were never 12.5" Instead, they added the "rubbing/heating" to give the Pats cover for saying the balls were at 12.5 when they gave them to the refs. As Bill said:
“Obviously with our footballs being inflated to the 12.5-pound range, any deflation would then take us under that specification limit,”
 

Fred not Lynn

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Unless of course it's one of those weeks in November when it's -20...which happen plenty enough, too.

I would think you might have bigger changes to the ball psi in Calgary during a Chinook when the barometric pressure plummets as high winds bring in a low pressure system. That leads to this other thougt, what changes might have occured with the barometric pressure during the Pats-Colts game? It was a pretty unsettled weather day, so did something happen there?
 

E5 Yaz

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There's been more thought in this thread about what Bill Nye said, than Nye put thought into his responses
 

djbayko

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drleather2001 said:
ESPN itself did a study finding that Belichick was right (it was done prior to BB's press conference), and then took it down after Bill Nye trolled everyone.
 
As mentioned upthread, you have the timeline wrong.  The video was taken down a day before Nye was on TV due to NFL restrictions on live game footage.  The video is back up with the footage replaced with stills.
 
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=12226086

 
John BrenkusVerified account@Sport_Science

@FrankSolenskyhttps://twitter.com/FrankSolensky @eggwarm yes, NFL footage we used originally had on-line restrictions. We replaced the footage with stills- no restrictions
 


9:54 AM - 26 Jan 2015
 

steveluck7

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CBS sports minute on 98.5 with Jim Rome. He doesn't believe Brady and, guess what?!?! He found ANOTHER butt-hurt ex NFL-er to back him up. Derrick Mason says there's no way a QB wouldn't know what was hapening.
 
There's gotta be some sort of "beaten by the Patriots" filter when these producers and hosts are looking for guests.
 

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Bill Belichick's impromptu Saturday press conference was fascinating for numerous reasons, but perhaps the most surreal moment came when the Patriots coach cited a character from a 23-year-old movie in explaining his naivete in matters of ball deflation.
 
"I'm not a scientist. I'm not an expert in footballs. I'm not an expert in football measurements. I'm just telling you what I know," Belichick said Saturday. "I would not say I'm Mona Lisa Vito of the football world, as she was in the car-expertise area."
 
The Mona Lisa Vito reference -- delivered in a dry manner and without a trace of humor -- was a deft call back to My Cousin Vinny and the character played by Marisa Tomei. The actress won an Oscar for her performance in the 1992 comedy, and on Monday, she was a call-in guest on The Rich Eisen Show.
 
Eisen asked Tomei what it's been like to get suddenly, inexplicably, dropped into the biggest sports story of the year.
 
"It's pretty funny," she replied. "I was on a plane from Miami and my phone was just lighting up when I got off."
 
"I kind of had to catch up on what was going on and the whole ball-gate or deflate-gate."
 
Tomei called Belichick's deflated football explanation "pretty darn believable," adding that she believed the coach "underrated himself" as an expert on the topic. She texted with My Cousin Vinny co-star Joe Pesci about the moment.
 
Tomei was asked if she believed Mona Lisa could bail Brady and Belichick out of their predicament the way she did for like Vinny's cousin.
 
"That's a lot of pressure on Mona Lisa. I think she'd want to because, you know, who doesn't love him? But, I don't know, ultimately maybe, you know, she's a New Yorker. So she's a Jets fan."
 
"I don't know. It depends how many other cases are queue, perhaps. But he was definitely, you know, 'dead on balls accurate,' as she would say. One more moment, I know they have more important challenges at hand, as he well said."
 
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000463524/article/marisa-tomei-belichick-was-pretty-darn-believable?campaign=Twitter_atn