Yeah, that's a phenomenal description. Devers has one of my favorite swings I've seen in a while. It's a lot of fun to watch him do his thing.
Devers called up to Majors
- Thread starter DeadlySplitter
- Start date
They optioned Marrero and kept up Devers. Maybe this was reported elsewhere but I don't see it.
edit: Nevermind, in the Nunez thread.
edit: Nevermind, in the Nunez thread.
Good news. Two games is a bit of a mockery of Devers' standing with the team, which should be high in any case. He's not "fungible AAAA-guy who we plug holes with."
Yeah I wasn't crazy about the callup in a vacuum, but once you do it and acquire Nunez, keeping him up makes more sense.
Opposite-field power by a left-handed batter at Fenway is a wunnerful thing. Devers' second major-league home run just barely made it to the Monster ledge -- but it had enough loft to clear the wall, and it came on a high-and-outside fastball. Rafael's got the power tool.
More impressive, to me, is the DP that Devers started on Saturday (5th inning) while in a shift where he was positioned on the right side of the infield. He pivoted and made the throw to Bogaerts pretty well for a guy who'd never played that side of the infield until he got to the majors (they don't shift much in the minors).
I feel like Devers has the tools to be a good fielder, and has shown that. The arm is there, but it looks like he needs to work on getting his footwork down and planting properly before throwing. I think his issues have been more technique than ability. The glove and mobility have both looked good. He's very athletic for a kid who looks like he still has babyfat on him. And that easy swing velocity and power is special. He's like one of those pitchers who throws 99 without a high effort motion.
it's the epitome of small sample sizes, but devers is generating some impressive exit velocity in the early going:
devers / mlb average:
-avg exit velocity (94.53 / 87.58)
-avg distance (228.06 / 06)
-avg gen velocity (6.93 / -0.91)
-avg launch angle (8.18 / 12.14)
-avg height (30.27 / 39.24)
looks like he's hitting a lot of hard-hit line drives in the small sample of balls he's put in play.
devers / mlb average:
-avg exit velocity (94.53 / 87.58)
-avg distance (228.06 / 06)
-avg gen velocity (6.93 / -0.91)
-avg launch angle (8.18 / 12.14)
-avg height (30.27 / 39.24)
looks like he's hitting a lot of hard-hit line drives in the small sample of balls he's put in play.
Interesting point about the footwork. I was at the game on Saturday where he made the throwing error.my seat in the RF loge boxes was just to the outfield side of the 3b/15 alignment. When he positioned himself to make the throw it looked like he was aiming right at me .. which is to say 10 ft. To the right of first base. He needed to move a bit more before releasing the ball.
At this point I'm wondering how bad the D would have to be to send the bat down. Not that the D is bad, but both have been better than expected.
If he is anything remotely like the hitter he has shown there is no D that could be bad enough for him to be sent down. He could be moved to first or DH if it is that bad.
From what I have seen the D has potential to be decent so I don't think this will be even a question.
From what I have seen the D has potential to be decent so I don't think this will be even a question.
He seems to have good hands, reflexes, and a good enough arm. Things like footwork and positioning and other technique things can be learned.
Scott Lauber ESPN Staff Writer
"Sometimes out there I'll close my eyes and make contact, and wherever it goes, that's where it goes." --Red Sox rookie Rafael Devers, 4-for-4 with a double Monday night and 10-for-24 with two doubles and two homers in six big-league games.
"Sometimes out there I'll close my eyes and make contact, and wherever it goes, that's where it goes." --Red Sox rookie Rafael Devers, 4-for-4 with a double Monday night and 10-for-24 with two doubles and two homers in six big-league games.
Thanks to Baseball-Reference's Play Index:
Ruth also pitched 8.1 innings in his game, beating the Browns 4-2. ... Jones is also the youngest Red Sox hitter to have five hits in a game, going 5-for-6 in the second game of a doubleheader on July 9, 1965 at age 21, 211.
Ruth also pitched 8.1 innings in his game, beating the Browns 4-2. ... Jones is also the youngest Red Sox hitter to have five hits in a game, going 5-for-6 in the second game of a doubleheader on July 9, 1965 at age 21, 211.
Two hall of famers, one mediocre 9 year vet, and one dramatic injury changed career. I think that chart runs the full gamut of possible outcomes.
Is Exit Velocity predictable based on SSS?
It looks to me that Devers 95.23 MPH might be second to Aaron Judge's 96.23 MPH
If that is sustainable and he strikes out at anywhere near 20%, then what might we truly have here?
It looks to me that Devers 95.23 MPH might be second to Aaron Judge's 96.23 MPH
If that is sustainable and he strikes out at anywhere near 20%, then what might we truly have here?
I have no idea how long it takes to stabilize, but I'd be willing to bet it's more than 6 games.
That said, he hits the ball hard and I expect that to continue, even if there's regression due.
Here is something I found from a Baseball Prospectus article.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=28956
"At 40-something balls in play, we can get an average exit velocity for a hitter that is fairly reliable. To put that in some context, the batting stats that have the lowest point of reliability are things like swing rate and strikeout rate, which become reliable around 50 or 60 PA. Exit velocity requires a ball in play, so 40 balls in play might take a few more PAs, but the point where it’s “not a small sample size any more” is very quick to come in the season.
I think it’s worth adding in a caveat about these sorts of analyses that people don’t often heed. The idea that a number has become “reliable” is not the same thing as saying that the player is now that number and that going forward this is what we should expect out of him. Reliability in this sense is a retrospective number. I can look back on the first few weeks of the season, look at the Statcast leaderboard and feel pretty good that those 40 balls in play represent a good estimate of what a player’s actual “talent” for exit velocity was during that time which is now past. It’s not a bad assumption that he might continue at that talent level during the next 40 balls in play or the next 100 or the next 200, but it is an assumption.
Still, that’s a pretty low number. Exit velocity is pretty quick to stabilize for hitters."
To this point Devers has put the ball in play 19 times so it's probably not a reliable sample size yet.
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SSS and all, but he's been spraying the ball all over the place.
Dare I say his [potential] offensive profile is a bit...Beltre-esque at a glance? Not a ton of low-K, high ISO, plus hit-tool type hitters in the league anymore.
Dare I say his [potential] offensive profile is a bit...Beltre-esque at a glance? Not a ton of low-K, high ISO, plus hit-tool type hitters in the league anymore.
The spray chart seems to be an ideal one for a LHB at Fenway. Big Papi, Lynn, Yaz, among others made that sort of chart de rigeur for a lefty.
Papi was a dead pull hitter on the ground, hence the shift, no? If Devers has a gb profile that is more all fields he could neutralize the shift better.
I mentioned it in the game thread, but he's being pitched away a lot. Which makes since for a big left handed hitter just coming up. I suspect they are going to start busting him in more often and it'll be interesting to see if he can pull his hands in and pull the ball in on his hands. He got jammed pretty good on his last hit, but was strong enough to muscle it for a hit, but I'm interested in seeing how that adjustment goes.
I think it was against McAllister, but he went oppo between third and short on a 97mph heater low and away and it looked effortless. I think that bodes well for his ability to adjust and get to those inside pitches. Not saying he'll be on par with Mookie handling the inside heat, but if he can maintain good discipline, I don't see why he can't be at least average on inside pitches worth hitting.
It looks like they've mostly been going away and low with occasional high fast balls. But most stuff has been the outer half of the plate. It will be interesting to see how that changes, because that approach has certainly not been limiting his power so far.
How about the bugaboo for a lot of new guys, or even established guys in the majors, breaking balls? Still very SSS time but I have seen him hit some breaking balls very well. Last night his second hit was off a 74 mph curveball and his fourth was off a 91 mph slider. The other two were off fastballs. Nothing to put in the binder on how to go after him there.
The kid looks like the real deal. Enough so that when he slid headfirst into 1st I flinched hoping that he'd not get hurt. As much for what fun he is to watch right now as for the teams need for it.
I blinked at that. When You think about it its not so nuts though. At some point in a players swing the bat path is already committed. Like shooting a gun by pulling the trigger. After the trigger is pulled your eyes are not needed. Open or shut, at that point its going to hit the target or not.
It's actually been tested. With college players, having their eyes blocked for the last third of the pitch's trajectory didn't affect their contact rate. The paper is "Contribution of Visual Information about Ball Trajectory to Baseball Hitting Accuracy", and Mike talked about it on the .com: "How Do Hitters Perform With Their Eyes Wide Shut?"
It's a good article, but at a certain point I kept expecting him to write, "From these statistics, we deduced there might be something unusual about Fenway's LF. So we sent someone there and they reported there's this massive wall which foreshortens LF! Who could have suspected that hitters who could direct fly balls towards the wall would have an advantage?"
Nice ESPN article comparing Devers to Moncada so far:
http://www.espn.com/blog/boston/red-sox/post/_/id/53088/rafael-devers-is-giving-the-red-sox-the-production-yoan-moncada-couldnt
http://www.espn.com/blog/boston/red-sox/post/_/id/53088/rafael-devers-is-giving-the-red-sox-the-production-yoan-moncada-couldnt
True. Maybe the point is that Devers is especially capable of taking advantage of it. But this note was expressed in a way I hadn't seen before, and put statistically what we already knew intuitively.
"For instance, MLB hitters batted .071 AVG/.142 SLG on fly balls hit between 87.5 mph to 90 mph to LCF in 2014. They batted .444 AVG/.917 SLG on such fly balls at Fenway in 2014. Thirty-six such fly balls and 15 doubles. That is simply staggering. At 12 other MLB parks — including Coors Field — hitters garnered zero hits on those fly balls in 2014."
(Also, a special guest appearance in the comments)
Large meals and the Panda go together so well, even when he's the entrée.
So far Devers has hit home runs on one ball up, another up and away, and the third down and away. He has fought off two pitches up and in for singles. Sooner or later pitchers are going to have to challenge conventional wisdom, and work the left-handed slugger down and in.
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So it seems that the broadcast last night they were suggesting (and fangraphs is implying) he will have difficulty handling the inside pitch (or at least that will be the plan of attack) and pulling the ball - any evidence of that from minors? All I've seen is a kid who is hitting them where he is being pitched and showed excellent pitch recognition. Or is it simply, "well he hasn't had a lot of pull hits so therefore he can't" I can't find anything specific on Soxprospects other than a reference to power to all fields and ability to hit the outside pitch.
The obvious follow-up question here is whether he's good enough to use the wall when at Fenway and not hit those types of balls when not at Fenway.
36 of those kinds of fly balls over the course of 81 games doesn't seem like many, by two full teams, so perhaps we're only talking about 10 or so hits/outs by Devers in a whole season anyway.
Of his two opposite field home runs, Devers would have had a pop out on the most recent (42 degree launch angle, 98 mph exit velocity, caught for an out 98% of the time), but the first was 59% likely to land for a hit as it came off the bat at 99 mph with a 24 degree launch angle*. That ball was ripped no matter what park it was in.
I'm guessing he won't have too many true Fenway specials.
*numbers from the Fangraphs article linked above. Great read.
I'm guessing he won't have too many true Fenway specials.
*numbers from the Fangraphs article linked above. Great read.
