Collins traded to Cleveland per Schefter

[Joe D Reid]

BB seems to view attitude as innate and non-coachable. That leads him to give up on talented guys because he can't or won't get help them get their heads on straight. The flipside, of course, is that he's the world-historical leader in coaching up more limited guys with good attitudes.

I think this is why he tends to do better with talented guys who are on their second or third team--they've already had the s--t scared out of them and are ready to listen. Greedily, I just wish he could figure out how to salvage more of his own draftees.

 

[Dollar]

Seriously. He just about single-handedly won the game against the Texans with probably one of the best defensive performances of the Belichick era. That said, he hasn't been as consistent as in past years, and he may have lost a step or two in terms of mobility, but let's not act like he's been 2009 Adalius Thomas out there.

 

[Bowlerman9]

How can you trade a pick that you don't yet have? Compensatory picks don't get awarded until March.

The deal itself is probably contingent on the Browns getting the pick. ie "The Browns will send a compensatory third round pick. If the Browns to not receive a compensatory third round pick, the pick reverts to the Browns 4th round pick"

Since the formula for compensatory picks has been cracked and its pretty apparent the Browns will get the last pick in the 3rd round, the Patriots made the deal. Chances are the fallback is the Browns 4th round pick, which would be potentially one pick later (or even the same, possibly).

 

[Ralphwiggum]

I'm not saying those statements are untrue, just that I haven't seen the press overtly criticizing Collins for his play this season, or talking about any locker room issues or unreasonable money demands. But as soon as he's gone, those narratives start being pushed. It's obvious that internally the organization believes at least one of those things is true to some degree, but it's funny to see the little smear campaign start almost immediately from people with strong Patriots connections.

I'm not even a big Collins fan, always thought he was an extremely boom or bust player that never consistently lived up to his athletic potential. I just think he's still one of the team's top 2 LB'ers and if it means they have to now rely on a 6th round pick and an assortment of early round disappointments at that position I'd like the return on that move to be a little better than just anticipating a third round compensatory selection by one year.

Those narratives get pushed after a trade like this gets made, because trades like this don't get made because BB woke up this morning thinking "I feel like trading someone today". Knowing what we know about how BB operates there have to be rational reasons behind doing something like this. So the press starts asking questions and they get some reasonable answers, or people start speculating. Either way, I'm pretty sure BB would have been fine saying nothing about the trade other than "we do what we think makes the team better" or something, as I don't think he cares if the fans or the media understands what goes into these decisions beyond that cliché.

Questioning whether they should have traded Collins at all is completely fair. I guess I don't see this front office as one that particularly needs or cares about smear campaigns. It's a curious trade and people want to know why. One person's smear campaign is another person's attempt at figuring out what BB was thinking when he made the trade.

 

[Shelterdog]

I am surprised and knowing what I know (which isn't much) I wouldn't have made the trade. I would have tried to get Collins back into game shape; he has to be at least valuable as depth even if Roberts is going to get most of the snaps.

A positive to me is that this would presumably make it more likely they re-sign Hightower and Butler, both of whom I think are more important than Collins.

Butler is a restricted free agent. He almost certainly plays for the Pats next year even if he isn't re-signed long term.

There's probably some cool game theory to be applied to the Hightower negotiaton dynamics--Hightower now knows he's the number one target and that the pats don't have much of a backup, but he also knows the pats absolutely will use the tag on him (and not possibly use it on Collins).

 

[Mugsy's Jock]

Pats Starting Linebackers and their draft position:
Hightower (#25, 2012)
Roberts (#214, 2016)
Ninkovich (#135, 2006)

Pats Back-Up Linebackers and their draft position:
McLellin (#19, 2012)
Mingo (#6, 2014)
Van Noy (#40, 2013)

Pats DL Linebackers and their draft position
Freeney (undrafted 2011)

The point? Well, there's some pedigree talent on the bench. Whether it's good or not is TBD.

 

[H78]

I am surprised and knowing what I know (which isn't much) I wouldn't have made the trade. I would have tried to get Collins back into game shape; he has to be at least valuable as depth even if Roberts is going to get most of the snaps.

A positive to me is that this would presumably make it more likely they re-sign Hightower and Butler, both of whom I think are more important than Collins.

I really think Butler is important to bring back...for the right price. He's gotten torched a few times this year too (he does gamble often in coverage) and, at least to my eyes, he's taken a bit of a step back this year as well. He's certainly a good player, but if he's looking for top CB money he should get it elsewhere.

Hightower is a stud and priority #1 IMO.

 

[brandonchristensen]

Damn...Happy...Halloween?

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

I'm wondering if BB would like a redo on the Jones trade?

 

[dbn]

I appreciate what rodderick is saying. However, I think it's less chasing the guy out of town with torches and pitchforks, and more Monday-morning QB-ing. He's gone in a surprise trade, so there must be a reason. Well, let's look at the most likely reasons.

 

[ifmanis5]

Remember the Hightower, Jones, Collins thread where everyone debated who was most important to the team. Well now BB has weighed in.

Funny, was just thinking about that thread. I think I said Collins was overrated and everyone else had Collins as #1 by a long shot. It's sobering how far he fell so fast. Maybe he knew he wasn't getting the money and was acting out? His talent is unquestioned but he disappeared a lot. As did Jones in the AFCCG. Maybe rebuilding without those guys will make it more consistent? Wow, gutsy move on a team where it's Super Bowl or failure.

 

[tims4wins]

I really think Butler is important to bring back...for the right price. He's gotten torched a few times this year too (he does gamble often in coverage) and, at least to my eyes, he's taken a bit of a step back this year as well. He's certainly a good player, but if he's looking for top CB money he should get it elsewhere.

Hightower is a stud and priority #1 IMO.

BB himself said that Butler has been great these last 3 weeks, but there was an implication that he wasn't all that great before.

 

[Shelterdog]

Those narratives get pushed after a trade like this gets made, because trades like this don't get made because BB woke up this morning thinking "I feel like trading someone today". Knowing what we know about how BB operates there have to be rational reasons behind doing something like this. So the press starts asking questions and they get some reasonable answers, or people start speculating. Either way, I'm pretty sure BB would have been fine saying nothing about the trade other than "we do what we think makes the team better" or something, as I don't think he cares if the fans or the media understands what goes into these decisions beyond that cliché.

Questioning whether they should have traded Collins at all is completely fair. I guess I don't see this front office as one that particularly needs or cares about smear campaigns. It's a curious trade and people want to know why. One person's smear campaign is another person's attempt at figuring out what BB was thinking when he made the trade.

Right. You've got to work backwards on thise things. Probably the greatest mind in football history thought that he'd rather have roughly the 68th pick in the 2017 draft than probably getting about the same pick in the 2018 draft and half a season of Collins; given how small the marginal value is you've got to wonder why. Maybe it scews up long term free agency plans but that's unlikely. Maybe he really values the third round comp pick a lot more this year than next year but that doesn't seem right--BB thinks that having a pick now verse later is worth less than a round or else he wouldn't keep making that type of trade, and late third round picks generally don't work out.

The answer that you're stuck with is that BB thinks that having Collins doesn't help this year's team much, if at all.

 

[Mooch]

Seriously. He just about single-handedly won the game against the Texans with probably one of the best defensive performances of the Belichick era. That said, he hasn't been as consistent as in past years, and he may have lost a step or two in terms of mobility, but let's not act like he's been 2009 Adalius Thomas out there.

That highlight package on Collins wasn't that impressive at all. I counted at least 8 plays where Collins was either the second guy in on a tackle or a Texans player slipped and fell at his feet. In fact, there were only two real standout plays by Collins that game: The pick where he dropped into zone coverage and Osweiler threw a terribly stupid ball in the middle, and a legit studly play when he blew up Grimes on a swing pass to the flat. Maybe you could add one more when Collins stopped Blue on a between the tackles run but that was a long way from "single-handedly winning" anything.

 

[Jnai]

Huh.

I suppose the deal makes sense from the Pats perspective if for some reason he is still hurt or not putting in what BB perceives to be 100% effort or getting effectively benched for Elandon Roberts.

But someone sell me on why this makes sense for Cleveland? Why do they want to acquire a one year rental now? There's no possible rental that would be worth it for a third round pick, not even rental Brady or rental Roethlisberger or rental Von Miller. The team is 0-8. Even if you win out you don't make the playoffs in the AFC. Why are you acquiring a player that has such marginal value?

 

[Cellar-Door]

That's not exactly going to give you a picture of his overall play.
I don't think anyone is disputing that he's had a few really good plays this season, it's the balance of his play that people have concerns with.
1 sack, and 4 QB hits in 6 games isn't exactly tearing it up as a pass rusher, and his run D has been dubious. I

 

[sodenj5]

Huh.

I suppose the deal makes sense from the Pats perspective if for some reason he is still hurt or not putting in what BB perceives to be 100% effort or getting effectively benched for Elandon Roberts.

But someone sell me on why this makes sense for Cleveland? Why do they want to acquire a one year rental now? There's no possible rental that would be worth it for a third round pick, not even rental Brady or rental Roethlisberger or rental Von Miller. The team is 0-8. Even if you win out you don't make the playoffs in the AFC. Why are you acquiring a player that has such marginal value?

Because they're going to sign him long term. They have a shit ton of cap space, and could free up even more if they trade away Joe Thomas or Joe Haden.

 

[RedOctober3829]

That's not exactly going to give you a picture of his overall play.
I mean adding 1 PBU and 1 hold drawn in itself feels like reaching for something good.
I don't think anyone is disputing that he's had a few really good plays this season, it's the balance of his play that people have concerns with.
1 sack, and 4 hits in 6 games isn't exactly tearing it up as a pass rusher, and his run D has been dubious.

So keep Roberts in his elevated role and play Collins in a different role. He does so many things that can help the defense like putting him in on passing downs and let him go rush the passer. A player that talented should not be traded for the return they got in his walk year when they can get a 3rd for him by simply not signing him in March.

 

[Hoodie Sleeves]

The answer that you're stuck with is that BB thinks that having Collins doesn't help this year's team much, if at all.

Yeah - my guess is that Roberts is playing Collins out of a job (or playing well enough that Collins isn't a huge plus), and BB would rather have Roberts get the lions share of the playtime - so he's cashing in while Collins still has value (10 games or so as Roberts' backup is going to significantly effect his next contract).

They typically only give out 3 or 4 third rounders - last year the cutoff was about $11M APY, and that's adjusted for playing time, so there's a real chance that if he was going to get demoted, he's not getting a 3rd round compensation pick.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Heard on WEEI, so apologies for no link, but Ordway just read an excerpt from an interview Collinsdid earlier in the year. He was asked if he preferred watching college football or professional and his answer was "Neither. I didn't grow up watching football and I still don't. Chandler Jones and I used to talk about it when he was here, we don't watch football other than our game tapes."

I can't imagine BB liked to hear that.

 

[Mooch]

So keep Roberts in his elevated role and play Collins in a different role. He does so many things that can help the defense like putting him in on passing downs and let him go rush the passer. A player that talented should not be traded for the return they got in his walk year when they can get a 3rd for him by simply not signing him in March.

So far this season, Collins hasn't played much on third down and hasn't been productive in those situations: Only 7 tackles on third down and 0 sacks. Collins, unless he's blitzing the A Gap, isn't a very good pass rusher at all.

 

[CoffeeNerdness]

I think maybe the hip was lingering and maybe that was effecting his play in a contract year. Maybe he started overcompensating by freelancing more than usual in hopes of making big plays that would lead to big $$$. That GIF from yesterday reeks of some Troy Polamalu do or die bullshit where he completely sold out to make a flashy play. They obviously liked him enough that he was worth a $11 mil. but the pursuit of Von Miller cash could have made him an on field liability.

I'm guessing they like him well enough because (grain of salt) he always seemed like a good dude to me, so instead of cutting his playing time- which they were likely resigned to doing because of the injury lingering and his drop off in play- they did him a solid and shipped him off to CLE where he'll probably play 90% of the D snaps, can freelance to his heart's content, and get that big pay day if he makes enough plays..

Probably not worth a whole lot, but in the past few weeks I've noticed Collins on those shots from the bus to entering the stadium and he seemed much flashier than he has in the past. Hauling a bunch of matched designer leather bags while sporting some crazy hairdo. The guy might just be all about the flash. Maybe the millions he stacked on his rookie contract have been pissed away. Who knows.

 

[rodderick]

So far this season, Collins hasn't played much on third down and hasn't been productive in those situations: Only 7 tackles on third down and 0 sacks. Collins, unless he's blitzing the A Gap, isn't a very good pass rusher at all.

What other opportunities aside from A Gap blitzes does Collins even get to rush the passer?

 

[RedOctober3829]

So far this season, Collins hasn't played much on third down and hasn't been productive in those situations: Only 7 tackles on third down and 0 sacks. Collins, unless he's blitzing the A Gap, isn't a very good pass rusher at all.

He completely blew up Buffalo's left tackle yesterday in the 4th quarter rushing the passer. He wasn't put in the position to rush off the edge nearly enough to take advantage of his skill.

 

[CantKeepmedown]

Heard on WEEI, so apologies for no link, but Ordway just read an excerpt from an interview Collinsdid earlier in the year. He was asked if he preferred watching college football or professional and his answer was "Neither. I didn't grow up watching football and I still don't. Chandler Jones and I used to talk about it when he was here, we don't watch football other than our game tapes."

I can't imagine BB liked to hear that.

http://www.improper.com/life-style/going-strong

 

[Stitch01]

One bad play doesn't mean a guy should be traded. I assume there was more going on.

That being said, I don't really understand this move at all. At least get someone back along with the pick.

The move is predicated on BB wanting to play Roberts over Collins, the move makes sense in that context. Whether to agree with that assessment is a different story.

 

[Stitch01]

Remember the Hightower, Jones, Collins thread where everyone debated who was most important to the team. Well now BB has weighed in.

Ha, probably going to weigh in further when none of them are on the team in 2017.

Half joking, my HOT TAKE for the offseason is that Hightower gets resigned and Butler is 1st-round tendered and the team doesn't match an offer sheet if one is extended.

 

[Ale Xander]

What RO said is 100% correct, and even if you don't want to start him at defense, he has the skills to be a tremendous special teams player while being injury insurance.

 

[Zososoxfan]

That highlight package on Collins wasn't that impressive at all. I counted at least 8 plays where Collins was either the second guy in on a tackle or a Texans player slipped and fell at his feet. In fact, there were only two real standout plays by Collins that game: The pick where he dropped into zone coverage and Osweiler threw a terribly stupid ball in the middle, and a legit studly play when he blew up Grimes on a swing pass to the flat. Maybe you could add one more when Collins stopped Blue on a between the tackles run but that was a long way from "single-handedly winning" anything.

Agreed, I went into that video expecting to be wistful and instead I just got angry at the NFL for being shitty at covering its own sport. I liked Collins a lot because with his athleticism it was easy. His failure against Daniels last year was so surprising to me precisely because he was that illusive LB who could cover TEs. I'm still extremely surprised by this trade because he likely still had a role on this team, no matter how diminished, so I have to think attitude and contract played into this. The compensation surprises me a bit, but I think BB was picky with who he was going to trade with. Cleveland was an easy partner because they've already played and Cleveland ain't going to the PO. If BB was trying to send a message (I doubt it, but it may have been a secondary consideration), going from first to worst likely gets that across. Most importantly, hoping to see a trade in the near future that has this make more sense.

 

[Bowlerman9]

Huh.

I suppose the deal makes sense from the Pats perspective if for some reason he is still hurt or not putting in what BB perceives to be 100% effort or getting effectively benched for Elandon Roberts.

But someone sell me on why this makes sense for Cleveland? Why do they want to acquire a one year rental now? There's no possible rental that would be worth it for a third round pick, not even rental Brady or rental Roethlisberger or rental Von Miller. The team is 0-8. Even if you win out you don't make the playoffs in the AFC. Why are you acquiring a player that has such marginal value?

If it's only a one year rental, they will get a 2018 3rd round comp pick when he leaves (assuming he gets $10M/yr as a UFA).

The Browns will have somewhere between $60-$80M to spend next year. Having him for 1/15 (franchise) or something in the $12-$15M range on a long term deal is well worth it for a team void of talent. They cant keep drafting 14 guys every year and hope some pan out. They need to trade picks for talent when the situation is right.

 

[Carmine Hose]

I'm on the fence about the necessity of a trade. I can see the merits about getting compensation rather than letting him walk for a 2018 comp pick. But I am also leery about the depth issue as Hightower, as dominant as he is, has a bad injury history.

That said, when the decision to trade him is made, I can't believe they couldn't've gotten anything more than a 3rd round comp pick, even scratching off teams they would trade with (AFC East foes, AFC contenders). I would've suspected you could eek out a 2nd somewhere. Even a regular 3rd from anyone is better than a comp 3rd.

 

[Stitch01]

Unless Jerry Jones is involved, how often does a team get a 2nd round pick for a non quarterback in a midseason trade in the NFL, particularly one that's a free agent this offseason? That's a fair bit of draft capital for 8 games of a player stepping in to a brand new scheme, you have to really have the stars align with a team in GFIN mode to get that sort of return. Its a big reason why big NFL trade deadline deals almost never happen, Im not surprised this was the return.

Id disagree with the comment made upthread (cant find it quickly right now) that this is doing Collins a solid if they are going to cut back his playing time. Instead of being on national TV and in a few playoff games in January he's going to be off in Siberia with a team that can both franchise him because they have essentially unlimited cap room and not really give a fuck if he holds out because they're going 3-13 next year anyways. Lol boo hoo, he's going to get $15MM next year anyways, but that giant Von Miller payday he was chasing just got moved out to 2018 and now he needs to produce in the mean time.

 

[Hoodie Sleeves]

. I'm still extremely surprised by this trade because he likely still had a role on this team, no matter how diminished, so I have to think attitude and contract played into this.

Playing time is part of the comp pick formula, so if you play him in a reduced role, not only does it negatively affect his next contract, but whatever he gets is discounted further in the formula. You don't get a 2018 3rd. You get a 2018 4th or 5th.

Are people as concerned if we're comparing a 2017 3rd comp vs a 2018 5th?

 

[AB in DC]

So keep Roberts in his elevated role and play Collins in a different role. He does so many things that can help the defense like putting him in on passing downs and let him go rush the passer. A player that talented should not be traded for the return they got in his walk year when they can get a 3rd for him by simply not signing him in March.

Exactly. If Collins isn't playing well, you bench him. It shouldn't have been any more complicated than that.

With all of the FAs at the end of this year, and Brady's age, the window is closing fast. Trading an asset just for a slightly better comp pick in the future isn't something a win-now team should be doing.

 

[NickEsasky]

My issue is that we are worse today than we were yesterday and the upside is a pick between the 3rd and 4th round (maybe). That's bad value for a guy you drafted in the second round when you have legit Super Bowl aspirations. There's a chance this team has 2 more rings if Bill doesn't make moves like this that weaken a really good team.

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

Okay. Regular season stats:

• 2014 (15 games): 4 sacks / 74 tackles
• 2015 (12 games): 6 sacks / 51 tackles
• 2016 (6 games): 1 sack / 31 tackles

Collins is 34th LB in combined tackles, although leading NE. 2 INTs ties him 2nd with 2 others.

 

[joe dokes]

People talk about his talent. But if BB thinks that he's not turning that talent into skill, then he's gone. And in a sport where all coaches -- from the best to the worst -- say some variation of "Its hard to tell how player x played without looking at the film," I find it hard to believe that people question the move "because Collins was so good." Maybe he wasn't. (or maybe not as good as Roberts and a humbled-and coached-up Mingo combine to be).

If Collins sacks the QB but was supposed to covering the wide open RB who would've caught the TD but for the sack, is that still a good play?

If his play has him *this* close to playing nothing but special teams, then a 3rd round pick is pretty good.

 

[Stitch01]

Exactly. If Collins isn't playing well, you bench him. It shouldn't have been any more complicated than that.

With all of the FAs at the end of this year, and Brady's age, the window is closing fast. Trading an asset just for a slightly better comp pick in the future isn't something a win-now team should be doing.

All evidence suggests the Patriots don't consider themselves a win-now team and don't execute player moves to maximize the Brady window. We can all debate about whether this is a good thing or a bad thing, but we have transaction after transaction to match BB rhetoric that shows this isn't how the Patriots operate or view their franchise.

My issue is that we are worse today than we were yesterday and the upside is a pick between the 3rd and 4th round (maybe). That's bad value for a guy you drafted in the second round when you have legit Super Bowl aspirations. There's a chance this team has 2 more rings if Bill doesn't make moves like this that weaken a really good team.

There's also a chance they have one less ring and aren't contending anymore because they decided to GFIN in previous seasons and whiffed.

 

[CoffeeNerdness]

If you're Jamie Collins and you get a massively reduced role or even worse become a just a special teamer as you're on the verge of a monster life changing contract would you just play it cool? If you're BB do you want that potentially squeaky wheel in your clubhouse?

 

[Hoodie Sleeves]

There's a chance this team has 2 more rings if Bill doesn't make moves like this that weaken a really good team.

And there's a chance they have 4 less if he doesn't make moves like this.

The entire reason that the Patriots have been good for so long is that BB doesn't sacrifice the future for today. Bill Belichick (right or wrong) has made it perfectly clear that he doesn't think there's "a window". He thinks the team is better off with a 3rd round pick than 8 games of Collins - that's completely consistent with what they've been doing for the last 15 years.

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

Unless Jerry Jones is involved, how often does a team get a 2nd round pick for a non quarterback in a midseason trade in the NFL, particularly one that's a free agent this offseason? That's a fair bit of draft capital for 8 games of a player stepping in to a brand new scheme, you have to really have the stars align with a team in GFIN mode to get that sort of return. Its a big reason why big NFL trade deadline deals almost never happen, Im not surprised this was the return.

I was just wondering if any other GM in the league makes this trade. As one of the few guys not stuck in mediocrity and not constantly looking over his shoulder, BB has the freedom to do what he wants. Of course, that angle is what helps keep he and the Patriots as far from mediocrity as any football team has ever been over such a stretch of time. Most just don't have the luxury of doing anything risky, never mind trading a purported starting linebacker in the middle of the season as a Super Bowl favorite.

That all works for me, it's part of the winning package, but I don't really care to find out what Mingo and Van Noy can do should Hightower pick up another injury and/or Roberts hit a rookie wall.

 

[NickEsasky]

And there's a chance they have 4 less if he doesn't make moves like this.

The entire reason that the Patriots have been good for so long is that BB doesn't sacrifice the future for today. Bill Belichick (right or wrong) has made it perfectly clear that he doesn't think there's "a window". He thinks the team is better off with a 3rd round pick than 8 games of Collins - that's completely consistent with what they've been doing for the last 15 years.

All true and a fair point. However, I just hope we aren't lamenting this trade come January if we're starting Mingo and Van Noy in the AFC championship game.

 

[Cellar-Door]

If people are talking about playing him on special teams, or only a few plays a game..... isn't a guaranteed 3rd rounder a pretty damn good return for 8 games of a non-core special teamer or 2nd/3rd string LB? I mean that's basically Barkevious Mingo who we got for a whole season for a 5th.

 

[Stitch01]

I was just wondering if any other GM in the league makes this trade. As one of the few guys not stuck in mediocrity and not constantly looking over his shoulder, BB has the freedom to do what he wants. Of course, that angle is what helps keep he and the Patriots as far from mediocrity as any football team has ever been over such a stretch of time. Most just don't have the luxury of doing anything risky, never mind trading a purported starting linebacker in the middle of the season as a Super Bowl favorite.

That all works for me, it's part of the winning package, but I don't really care to find out what Mingo and Van Noy can do should Hightower pick up another injury and/or Roberts hit a rookie wall.

Yeah, its the unique combination of 100% autonomy, 100% job security, and 100% giving no fucks about what anyone outside the organization thinks. It used to be a bigger advantage before people got smarter about trading future first round picks, but it still helps as long as BB still has his fastball.

Also count me among not wanting to find out how strong the island of misfit toys draft chart is.

 

[H78]

All true and a fair point. However, I just hope we aren't lamenting this trade come January if we're starting Mingo and Van Noy in the AFC championship game.

As someone else mentioned, in the last AFCCG Collins proved to be our biggest liability.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Unless Jerry Jones is involved, how often does a team get a 2nd round pick for a non quarterback in a midseason trade in the NFL, particularly one that's a free agent this offseason? That's a fair bit of draft capital for 8 games of a player stepping in to a brand new scheme, you have to really have the stars align with a team in GFIN mode to get that sort of return. Its a big reason why big NFL trade deadline deals almost never happen, Im not surprised this was the return.

Id disagree with the comment made upthread (cant find it quickly right now) that this is doing Collins a solid if they are going to cut back his playing time. Instead of being on national TV and in a few playoff games in January he's going to be off in Siberia with a team that can both franchise him because they have essentially unlimited cap room and not really give a fuck if he holds out because they're going 3-13 next year anyways. Lol boo hoo, he's going to get $15MM next year anyways, but that giant Von Miller payday he was chasing just got moved out to 2018 and now he needs to produce in the mean time.

I'll add that if he had been looking that bad on film that it was getting him benched (and presumably contributed to getting traded), I would assume other teams noticed as well, helping to lower his value. If he had a year left on his deal, sure you might have time to think you can coach him up and fix it. But as you say, not in 8 games.

 

[Super Nomario]

So keep Roberts in his elevated role and play Collins in a different role. He does so many things that can help the defense like putting him in on passing downs and let him go rush the passer. A player that talented should not be traded for the return they got in his walk year when they can get a 3rd for him by simply not signing him in March.

I agree, which is why I suspect there was a coaching / chemistry issue here. Either Collins wasn't taking coaching or they felt like he was / was going to be a locker room issue or both.

All evidence suggests the Patriots don't consider themselves a win-now team and don't execute player moves to maximize the Brady window. We can all debate about whether this is a good thing or a bad thing, but we have transaction after transaction to match BB rhetoric that shows this isn't how the Patriots operate or view their franchise.

My issue is that we are worse today than we were yesterday and the upside is a pick between the 3rd and 4th round (maybe). That's bad value for a guy you drafted in the second round when you have legit Super Bowl aspirations. There's a chance this team has 2 more rings if Bill doesn't make moves like this that weaken a really good team.

There's also a chance they have one less ring and aren't contending anymore because they decided to GFIN in previous seasons and whiffed.

If you want an example of a team that's always in GFIN mode and has screwed themselves, the New Orleans Saints come to mind. Always trading up in the draft, always signing FAs (they haven't had a comp pick in a decade), always up against the cap because they're backloading contracts. I'll cast my lot with Belichick instead.

 

[pappymojo]

There is no guarantee that the Patriots would have been awarded a 3rd round comp pick (let alone any comp pick) if they let him walk after this year. There is also no guarantee that the Browns will be awarded a 3rd round pick either (to trade to the Patriots) but if the Browns do not have a 3rd round comp pick, they send us their 4th round pick. So at the very least the Patriots have guaranteed themselves compensation in return for Collins.

http://overthecap.com/the-basics-and-methodology-of-projecting-the-nfls-compensatory-draft-picks/
http://overthecap.com/the-basics-and-methodology-of-projecting-the-nfls-compensatory-draft-picks/

Each qualifying player has a value based on his contract, playing time and postseason honors, and that value corresponds to a round in the draft. In the compensatory equation, each qualifying player that a team signs cancels out a qualifying player that the team lost whose value is the highest in the same round. If there are no lost players remaining in that round, the signed player cancels out the lost player whose value is the next-highest. A signed player will cancel out a lost player whose value falls in a higher round only if there are no remaining lost players. After all of a team’s qualifying signed players have canceled out a lost player, the team can receive a comp pick for each qualifying player who remains. For example, consider a team that loses one qualifying player whose value falls in the third round and another qualifying player whose value falls in the sixth round but signs a qualifying player whose value falls in the third round. That team would receive a sixth-round comp pick because the signed player would cancel out the loss of the higher-valued player.

Let's say that the Patriots didn't make this trade, played out the year with Collins, and then in the off-season lost Collins to free agency. But let's say that the Patriots signed Alshon Jeffery to a similar contract. In that scenario, the Patriots don't get anything as compensation for losing Collins because signing Jeffery would offset losing Collins.

 

[NortheasternPJ]

If people are talking about playing him on special teams, or only a few plays a game..... isn't a guaranteed 3rd rounder a pretty damn good return for 8 games of a non-core special teamer or 2nd/3rd string LB? I mean that's basically Barkevious Mingo who we got for a whole season for a 5th.

Small point but it isn't a guaranteed 3rd rounder. It could easily be the 1st pick of the 4th if they don't get a comp. pick.

 

[CoffeeNerdness]

The tweet in the Van Noy thread proclaiming he'd become Jamie Collins 2.0 in New England has certainly taken on a new tone.