Cespedes stays with Mets

[RedOctober3829]

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 12s12 seconds ago
So full Cespedes deal with #Mets, per sources: Three years, $75M, full no-trade clause, opt-out after one year. Pending physical.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 38m38 minutes ago
If Cespedes opts out with #Mets, his one-year salary will be $27.5M, second-highest AAV ever for a position player. @jonheyman first.

 

[jon abbey]

They are going to play him in CF mostly so they can play Conforto and Granderson in the corners. Coupled with the addition of Asdrubal Cabrera as the starting SS, that is not a good defensive team.

 

[luckiestman]

They are going to play him in CF mostly so they can play Conforto and Granderson in the corners. Coupled with the addition of Asdrubal Cabrera as the starting SS, that is not a good defensive team.

Who needs defense with that rotation?

 

[jon abbey]

Who needs defense with that rotation?

http://atmlb.com/1KEAu6T

 

[Sprowl]

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 12s12 seconds ago
So full Cespedes deal with #Mets, per sources: Three years, $75M, full no-trade clause, opt-out after one year. Pending physical.

So David Price is a bargain after all.

 

[brandonchristensen]

Holy shit...that's expensive.

 

[InsideTheParker]

I never saw the per annum offer from the Nats. It must have been way less.

 

[Omar's Wacky Neighbor]

I never saw the per annum offer from the Nats. It must have been way less.

Earlier this week, there was talk of $90m for five years. (WFAN)

 

[Saints Rest]

Is it just me or are there a lot more opt-outs happening? The word was that the Mets wanted a one year deal; was the opt-out their way of trying to make it happen?

 

[AlNipper49]

Holy shit...that's expensive.

It is...but I actually wouldn't mind it as a Mets fan. He's a player that brings a lot of risk and if be happy paying a little extra to cushion against downside risk

Can you tell that I root for a team that employs Pablo Sandoval?

 

[Darnell's Son]

Is it just me or are there a lot more opt-outs happening? The word was that the Mets wanted a one year deal; was the opt-out their way of trying to make it happen?

I think players want the options, and are giving money up for them, because the CBA is up after this year, and they're hoping that the players win the deal. If the players win, then they can opt out into the new market.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Gotta give Cespedes and his agents a lot of credit. He's been bucking the system since he defected. First he turns down a reported 6/36M from the Marlins to initially sign in Oakland for 4/36M. Then he gets it written into his contract that the team has to outright release him at the end of the four years even though he would be arb-eligible rather than an unrestricted free agent. On top of that was the clause that prohibited being tendered a qualifying offer so he avoided the draft pick anchor. Now he's signed the richest one year deal in history with the option to stick around for two more years and another ~$50M if he has a bad season. And if he does opt-out next winter, it will be into a much weaker outfield market where he arguably would be the best available and could get a bigger longer deal.

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

It's an imperfect comparison, but I'm reminded of a 30-year-old Andruw Jones getting a big-money two-year deal from the Dodgers. I imagine this will work out better than that, though.

 

[Erik Hanson's Hook]

Can you tell that I root for a team that employs Pablo Sandoval?

This is great.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 40m40 minutes ago
Cespedes eligible for qualifying offer if he opts out after one year. #Mets will get compensation pick if they make him QO and he departs.

 

[LondonSox]

The thing with these opt outs is the teams are selling an option but so far that hasn't gone wrong so people have got more and more aggressive.

Seen this trick a million times in financial markets. Smart people start selling an option at a good price (the early opt outs weren't that bad and limited downside) then everyone starts doing it and the price keeps falling as no one sees the downside.

Then it ends epically badly and we backlash to where no one sells one ever again... For like 3 years (ps this is where you want to do them).

The Mets just did Merrill Lynch in the financial crisis. If it works they'll keep doing it until it goes to shit. This will end in tears.
They have convinced themselves that this is how to get him on a one year deal. If he's bad (possible) or gets hurt (also) then this contract will be the highest average year deal ever. For cespedes lol.

 

[jon abbey]

The FA market is so barren next offseason that it would really take a disastrous performance by Cespedes plus a lingering injury issue for him to not opt out. This move is OK on the field (I still think in a vacuum that Mets management would have preferred to go with an OF of Conforto/Lagares/Granderson plus De Aza, as well as Dilson Herrera at 2B instead of Walker) but they will likely make back quite a bit of that money in good will with their fans who were very loudly clamoring for this. If you add in the likely additional draft pick they'll get when he opts out next year, pretty good move all in all IMO.

 

[Rough Carrigan]

They are going to play him in CF mostly so they can play Conforto and Granderson in the corners. Coupled with the addition of Asdrubal Cabrera as the starting SS, that is not a good defensive team.

Oh my god. Seriously?
That's like telling your pitchers that they'd better strike out every single batter possible. Cespedes is stretched in LEFT field, never mind center. They saw him in left for a couple months and they want to put him in center? I wouldn't put him in center if Derek Lowe in his prime was starting that night's game.

 

[MakMan44]

Oh my god. Seriously?
That's like telling your pitchers that they'd better strike out every single batter possible. Cespedes is stretched in LEFT field, never mind center. They saw him in left for a couple months and they want to put him in center? I wouldn't put him in center if Derek Lowe in his prime was starting that night's game.

He played center a lot for the Mets in the first go around.

In fact, he played nearly double the innings in CF compared to LF for the Mets last season.

 

[Rough Carrigan]

He played center a lot for the Mets in the first go around.

In fact, he played nearly double the innings in CF compared to LF for the Mets last season.

I didn't realize the proportions were such. I would have guessed they were the opposite, twice as much left.
The fielding bible has him as -8 in center last year, in about 40 games. Yikes. SSS and all but yikes.

 

[moondog80]

The thing with these opt outs is the teams are selling an option but so far that hasn't gone wrong so people have got more and more aggressive.

Seen this trick a million times in financial markets. Smart people start selling an option at a good price (the early opt outs weren't that bad and limited downside) then everyone starts doing it and the price keeps falling as no one sees the downside.

Then it ends epically badly and we backlash to where no one sells one ever again... For like 3 years (ps this is where you want to do them).

The Mets just did Merrill Lynch in the financial crisis. If it works they'll keep doing it until it goes to shit. This will end in tears.
They have convinced themselves that this is how to get him on a one year deal. If he's bad (possible) or gets hurt (also) then this contract will be the highest average year deal ever. For cespedes lol.

But even if it goes bad, it's only a three year deal. I doubt they end up in tears.

 

[Gdiguy]

But even if it goes bad, it's only a three year deal. I doubt they end up in tears.

Which is also good timing, since that's about when their pitching staff will start to get expensive (Harvey's a little older, but DeGrom/Syndergaard are arb eligible starting 2018). So it's definitely a lot of money, but I don't think the risk level here is too bad for the Mets.

 

[LondonSox]

It's a three year deal with the highest aav ever. For a guy who isn't that good and can't play centre field. It's crazy they are hoping to get a year and a draft pick. Given a limited payroll it's a big commitment.

 

[AlNipper49]

They have limited payroll but arguably the best pre-arb 1-3 staff in recent memory. Next year's class sucks and Cespedes gives the lineup some punch. The signing will not impact negotiations with their starters over the next few years, and gives them less likelihood they'll squander those years.

What else could they do with the money over the next year or two? It's a finite payroll but with new money coming in it doesn't strike me that it doesn't leave them with ANY flexibility

I wouldn't be jumping for joy as a Mets fan but I wouldn't be disappointed either

 

[Average Reds]

Got a text from a Mets fan who works with me. I should note that he's not clever enough to be ironic:

"Great to see that Cespedes taking a pay cut to stay. This should be a model for free agents."

I know they are still suffering from Madoff-induced PTSD, but in my experience Mets fans are the most deluded of all sports fans.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

I know it's probably never going to come out but I would be fascinated to learn how the Mets ended up at 3/$75 with the opt-out. Seems like the Mets took the most downside risk of all the possibilities. Once they were willing to give up the 1st year opt-out, I'm surprised the Mets couldn't get $5/90 or in that ballpark. That way if Cespedes gets a major injury, they have some chance to recoup a good portion of the contract - which is likely to be impossible just on a three-year deal.

At least the Mets got their player I guess.

 

[MakMan44]

I know it's probably never going to come out but I would be fascinated to learn how the Mets ended up at 3/$75 with the opt-out. Seems like the Mets took the most downside risk of all the possibilities. Once they were willing to give up the 1st year opt-out, I'm surprised the Mets couldn't get $5/90 or in that ballpark. That way if Cespedes gets a major injury, they have some chance to recoup a good portion of the contract - which is likely to be impossible just on a three-year deal.

At least the Mets got their player I guess.

They didn't want him at that length.

 

[moondog80]

They didn't want him at that length.

I think it's the other way around. You think the Mets wouldn't offer him a two year extension at 7.5 mil per year, for his age 33 and 34 seasons? And that there's any chances Cespedes would accept it? 7.5 mil will be close to 4th OF money by that point.

 

[MakMan44]

I think it's the other way around. You think the Mets wouldn't offer him a two year extension at 7.5 mil per year, for his age 33 and 34 seasons? And that there's any chances Cespedes would accept it? 7.5 mil will be close to 4th OF money by that point.

No I don't. There's been nothing to suggest that the Mets wanted to go beyond 3 years. In fact, all offseason long they were reported be offering short terms deal, and I'd argue that 3 years is actually beyond what they wanted to go.

 

[moondog80]

No I don't. There's been nothing to suggest that the Mets wanted to go beyond 3 years. In fact, all offseason long they were reported be offering short terms deal, and I'd argue that 3 years is actually beyond what they wanted to go.

I think that's implied to mean "beyond 3 years on a deal that would reasonably be accepted". Obviously there's a point where the rule goes out the window. Would they they also choose 75/3 over 80/4 because they just don't want to go to 4 years?

In 3 years the Alejandro DeAzas of the world (5.75 mil in 2016) will be getting 7.5 mil. Of course the Mets would do it.

 

[MakMan44]

I think that's implied to mean "beyond 3 years on a deal that would reasonably be accepted". Obviously there's a point where the rule goes out the window. Would they they also choose 75/3 over 80/4 because they just don't want to go to 4 years?

In 3 years the Alejandro DeAzas of the world (5.75 mil in 2016) will be getting 7.5 mil. Of course the Mets would do it.

Personally, I think the Mets want Cespedes to opt out after the 1st season. I think they were willing to do 3 years because in the case he opts in next season, they'll get out from under the deal (and this has been mentioned in this thread), right around the time their pitching will get expensive.

And if Cespedes valued length over dollar amount, he'd gone with the Nats 5 year deal, so it's silly to argue that Cespedes would have even taken that type of offer from the Mets.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Personally, I think the Mets want Cespedes to opt out after the 1st season. I think they were willing to do 3 years because in the case he opts in next season, they'll get out from under the deal (and this has been mentioned in this thread), right around the time their pitching will get expensive.

And if Cespedes valued length over dollar amount, he'd gone with the Nats 5 year deal, so it's silly to argue that Cespedes would have even taken that type of offer from the Mets.

Please God let's not turn this into a discussion but opt-outs, but once the Mets agreed to the one-year opt-out, their next strategy should have been to limit their downside liability. In my mind, 2/$55 would have been better than 3/$75; as would have 4/$80 or 5/$90, and it's hard to imagine Cespedes turning down any of them so long as he got the first year opt-out, but as I said, we'll never know how the negotiations went.

 

[moondog80]

Please God let's not turn this into a discussion but opt-outs, but once the Mets agreed to the one-year opt-out, their next strategy should have been to limit their downside liability. In my mind, 2/$55 would have been better than 3/$75; as would have 4/$80 or 5/$90, and it's hard to imagine Cespedes turning down any of them so long as he got the first year opt-out, but as I said, we'll never know how the negotiations went.

Without getting into whether the opt out is inherently good or not, I think it's certainly good if offering it means you get a deal that is only 3 years in length from a 30 year old.

This is an outstanding deal for the Mets. Talk about the highest paid AAV position player ever is silly; salaries go up every year so it's always going to be one of the few players who have hit FA in the past year or so to hold that title, until a generational guy like Harper comes along and really blows it up (like A-Rod did). Yes, they paid a bit of a premium in AAV, but Justin Upton just got 132/6, and he was lower that Cespedes on many FA lists; even if Cespedes could "only" have gotten 120/6, I'd say that 45/3 on the back end of that deal is well worth avoiding.

 

[Gdiguy]

even if Cespedes could "only" have gotten 120/6, I'd say that 45/3 on the back end of that deal is well worth avoiding.

I think this is especially true with the Mets pitching situation. Yeah, maybe he'd be worth a little more than 45/3 on the end of that deal... but the downside risk that he's terrible right when they need to decide to spend to keep pitchers would be very bad. If you think the Wilpons get bad press now, dealing DeGrom or Syndergaard because they can't pay them because they're paying $15M to a benched (or waived) Cespedes would be the absolute worst case.

I really think this is pretty good for the Mets - unless they were going to put up the money for Upton (which has its own risks, as he could easily become Crawford 2.0), the outfield market was quite blah. They got a fan favorite on a short deal, and worst case if he falls back to his career averages there'll still probably be a team that would take him with 10-20 million thrown in.