Celtics vs Heat ECF Redux Discussion Thread

bosockboy

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How exactly have Tatum and Brown ever played collaboratively together. They were never a great fit. They never found a symbiotic rhythm. Your turn, now mine. Brown needs to go.

It needs to be done. Brown is maxed out as far as a player goes. He's All-NBA in name only. If half a dozen other guys play the requisite amount of games, he's nothing in All-NBA terms as people are reminded his good, but far from great. The guy has zero handle, brutal defensively especially off ball, mediocre passer and shooter. He's not going to get better. And everything I just described paints an ugly picture for a guy as he ages out of his prime..make him someone else's problem.
Easy to say, hard to do. Tatum will make this decision, and it’s extremely difficult to find fair value and a team he’ll commit to.
 

CoffeeNerdness

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To arrive at the answer moving forward let's step back and review the past along with how NBA coaching functions.

Let's begin with the Head Coach who relies on his assistants to handle specific responsibility....Joe had Ime's second-row assistants as HIS right-hand men (kinda sub-optimal, no?). Blaming Mazzulla for this years defense completely 100% ignores the facts that we know (or should know if we are following) such as it was Mazzulla who ran the defense last year. Do we have this short of a memory to not recall that it was his defensive schemes which put him in the position to be a man of interest for other Head Coaching interviews? Pointing toward a couple of games following elimination wins as evidence of defensive breakdowns is kinda silly. There were multiple stretches in this game when the Celtics has the Heat offense shut down for 20-24 seconds and some of them ended with a made 3 as the shot clock was going off.

A quick 5-second search pulls up many stories of last year but here's one quote from Brogdon when he first arrived in Boston....


In a recent interview with Bally Sports’ Brandon “Scoop B” Robinson, Celtics guard Malcolm Brogdon suggested it wasn’t Udoka who crafted Boston’s epic defense. Instead, it was current head coach Joe Mazzulla, who was promoted from his role as an assistant after Udoka’s suspension this fall.

Brogdon was traded to the Celtics this summer. He told Bally Sports he didn’t know much about Mazzulla prior to arriving in Boston. Brogdon explained he quickly learned his new coach may have been responsible for his club’s vaunted defense.

“A few guys told me that he was sort of the mastermind behind our defense and everything in the Finals, and his game plan, his adjustments, and his scouting reports were really good,” Brogdon said.
Is drop coverage on Curry really a strong bullet point on his resume? Seemed to work at first and then we know the rest of the story.

https://theathletic.com/3361968/2022/06/13/stephen-curry-celtics-defense-drop-nba-finals/

https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/warriors-vs-celtics-stephen-curry-is-torching-bostons-drop-coverage-so-will-ime-udoka-adjust-in-game-5/

Here's Will Hardy talking about getting team buy-in on defense(Ime).

"It’s trying to build relationships that aren’t just focused on X’s and O’s and offense and defense," Hardy said. "It’s trying to develop some level of human connection there, where it’s just coach-player, it’s person-to-person."
https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/celtics/ime-udokas-top-assistant-will-hardy-reveals-what-makes-celtics-coach-tick

I'm not sure a guy who wasn't here saying Joe was "sort of" the mastermind of the 2022 defense means as much as you think it does. JM might be good with X's and O's, I mean, Brad Stevens didn't hire the guy for no reason, but nonetheless, the team defense regressed under him once he got in the big chair.

Here's the man himself saying team defense goes beyond X's and O's:

Yeah, I mean, it’s not just this team this year. I think one of the staples of the Celtics over the last, you know since I’ve been here, the last four years and before it was we were always one of the top defenses in the league and the players bought into defense. So, I think it’s more of a testament to who they are. They know it’s important to win, if you want to get to where you want to get to and you know, individually our guys like to play defense and as a team we do too. So, you know, it’s just more about them. They want to do it.
https://985thesportshub.com/listicle/joe-mazzulla-explains-how-hes-made-the-celtics-buy-in-defensively/

It may be "silly" to point out the half a dozen times over games 6 & 7 where two defenders followed the screener, but to me, it's emblematic of a lack of focus and buy-in - we're not talking about a February away game in Charlotte here. The defense was less focused and cohesive on JM's watch.
 

greek_gawd_of_walks

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Easy to say, hard to do. Tatum will make this decision, and it’s extremely difficult to find fair value and a team he’ll commit to.
To me, it's easy to say, easy to do, at least from a financial standpoint. Brown and Tatum simply can't make up 100+ mil of a total salary situation. Not for a year, not for multiple years.

This isn't a winning formula. It hasn't ever been. And when you see how this entire team shrinks in the biggest moments, and Brown being an integral part of a large portion of these woes, it'd be insanity to double down.

I'm not saying change for the sake of change, but it's close to that. I can't watch this again. I've seen too much, too often. The same result all the damn time.

Changes, big ones, are needed.
 

bosockboy

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To me, it's easy to say, easy to do, at least from a financial standpoint. Brown and Tatum simply can't make up 100+ mil of a total salary situation. Not for a year, not for multiple years.

This isn't a winning formula. It hasn't ever been. And when you see how this entire team shrinks in the biggest moments, and Brown being an integral part of a large portion of these woes, it'd be insanity to double down.

I'm not saying change for the sake of change, but it's close to that. I can't watch this again. I've seen too much, too often. The same result all the damn time.

Changes, big ones, are needed.
I agree on the basketball part. If Tatum wants him to stay, he stays. It’s just how the NBA works.
 

BrotherMouzone

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How exactly have Tatum and Brown ever played collaboratively together. They were never a great fit. They never found a symbiotic rhythm. Your turn, now mine. Brown needs to go.

It needs to be done. Brown is maxed out as far as a player goes. He's All-NBA in name only. If half a dozen other guys play the requisite amount of games, he's nothing in All-NBA terms as people are reminded his good, but far from great. The guy has zero handle, brutal defensively especially off ball, mediocre passer and shooter. He's not going to get better. And everything I just described paints an ugly picture for a guy as he ages out of his prime..make him someone else's problem.
Man, judging by those attributes it's amazing this guy is even in the league! Does he do anything well?

Also, the duo that was "never a great fit" has made five conference finals together. I know it's all RINGZ RINGZ RINGZ and it's obviously very disappointing that they've never fully broken through and won a title (yet), but a little perspective is needed here. 90% of the league would love to have that type of mismatched fit.
 

BaseballJones

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The Tatum/Brown duo has accomplished more than the vast majority of duos their age has ever accomplished in NBA history. That’s simply a fact. They’ve been enormously successful together. That they haven’t yet reached the summit doesn’t mean they haven’t been awesome together.
 

greek_gawd_of_walks

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Man, judging by those attributes it's amazing this guy is even in the league! Does he do anything well?
Honestly, I'm shocked at how well he's done. For as good as he is, he's insanely limited in how he can do his thing. And he's nearing the age where you plateau. And then become worse. Guys don't discover how to dribble at 27. It's not going to happen for him. I wish it was, but it's not. If that's not going to happen, he really can't get better. Getting lost in rotations? Doesn't usually get better with age. He is who he is.

Do you honestly want to run this back? You thrilled with five conference finals? If that's your aim, we have the core to do exactly what's been described. We're incredibly successful. Cue the duck boats and unfurl the Colts banner.

I'm not being an asshole. I'm just done hoping for this team to magically learn how to win in the biggest moments. Five conference finals, an NBA finals and they still can't do it. Changes need to happen. I'd be thrilled to lose in a less talented way, almost. You've gone as far as you can with this group. Don't double down on this.
 
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BrotherMouzone

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Honestly, I'm shocked at how well he's done. For as good as he is, he's insanely limited in how he can do his thing. And he's nearing the age where you plateau. And then become worse. Guys don't discover how to dribble at 27. It's not going to happen for him. I wish it was, but it's not. If that's not going to happen, he really can't get better. Getting lost in rotations? Doesn't usually get better with age. He is who he is.

Do you honestly want to run this back? You thrilled with five conference finals? If that's your aim, we have the core to do exactly what's been described. We're incredibly successful. Cue the duck boats and unfurl the Colts banner.
That's obviously not what I said so don't put words in my mouth. I said it was very disappointing that this team hasn't broken through yet, while also acknowledging that it's extremely difficult to win a championship in professional sports. There's no magic bullet to win one of these things, you need to give yourself as many chances as possible. This duo has proven that at the very least you have a chance to win a championship every year, which most of the league can't say.

If a deal comes for Jaylen that Stevens thinks will make the team better, than I'm all for it. But taking someone's worst performance of the year and extrapolating it for the rest of his career is very short-sighted IMO.
 

soxin6

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Mazz is probably keeping his job. I just hope Brad doesn’t do it because of status quo bias. Assume the job was open, of the candidates willing to take the job, is Mazz the best one? If so, keep him. I was looking at some lists of who is available. It didn’t look great to me. Kenny Atkinson? Nurse is off the board and he was probably the only difference maker I saw. Brad and Wyc are in a better position to know than any of us.
I would take Atkinson over Mazz 100 times out of 100. He was a better coach than Mazz when he was with the Nets and now he has multiple years on the bench for Golden State.
 

BaseballJones

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Imagine if the management of the 80s Pistons broke up their core because they spent most of the 80s not getting over the hump. They’d have missed out on two NBA titles.

I could say the same thing about the 80s Bulls except that obviously you wouldn’t break them up since they had the best player in the world. But Detroit didn’t. Not only did they have to get past Boston and LA, but they had as a division rival a team that DID have the best player on the planet.
 

BigSoxFan

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Imagine if the management of the 80s Pistons broke up their core because they spent most of the 80s not getting over the hump. They’d have missed out on two NBA titles.

I could say the same thing about the 80s Bulls except that obviously you wouldn’t break them up since they had the best player in the world. But Detroit didn’t. Not only did they have to get past Boston and LA, but they had as a division rival a team that DID have the best player on the planet.
Imagine if the 2018-2021 Sixers had…
 

soxin6

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The Celtics need a real offensive identity and a defensive guru on the bench. You can do that with assistant coaches or they can bring in a new head coach, I don’t really care. They have not maximized the effectiveness of Brown and Tatum and this team just passes the ball around outside the three point line and shoots another three. When the push the pace and when they move the ball, they look unbeatable. But they don’t do that consistently and something has to force them to. The defensive effort seems to be tied to scoring, but there is nothing good about their offense. Either they are making shots or they lose. If the players don’t want to buy in to changing things, then some of them need to go. You cannot just keep doing the same things and hope they finally figure it out because they have shown that is very unlikely to happen.
 

Pablo's TB Lover

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I really really REALLY love the game of basketball and this Celtics team. I’m more sad than anything that I have to wait a few months to see them play again. This sucks the shit out of my ass.
Many games were frustrating this postseason, but man when things went well during the regular season and games 4, 5 & 6, this team was so enjoyable to watch. I was hoping to have another 2-3-4(?) games when things were clicking.

Scal and the beat writers go on all the time how Mazzulla is a completely different person from what he portrays in those press conferences.

Assistants matter, and Coach Joe had almost no help from his.
I don't blame Mazzulla for putting up a wall during the press conferences. It is TOUGH to be vulnerable when a first year coach at that age, there is a certain authority that needs to be manufactured. And that is without the circumstances of his "interim" hiring in the first place and that it took a long time before CJM even broke out of the interim label by the team.
 

tims4wins

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Man, I said after game 6 that the Celts won despite shooting 20% from 3 and the Heat shooting nearly 50% from 3, and the game shouldn't have even gone to the wire, so I expected some regression from both teams and therefore was pretty optimistic about how the shooting would go last night. Couldn't have been more wrong.
 

Cellar-Door

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Tatum appears to want him to stay, based on comments after the game last night.
I wouldn't read much into that, Tatum isn't the kind of guy who throws a teammate under the bus after a tough game, honestly, while Kobe is the guy he idolizes, he's really much more like Durant without the thin skin in terms of personality. His ideal life is to just play Basketball, hang out at home with his family/friends and play more ball.

I think the driver of whether Brown stays of goes will be Jaylen... if they offer him a deal and he says no he's gone, and they'll sell Tatum on it. I have never gotten the impression that Jaylen is a dealbreaker for Tatum, he just wants to play and win, if you can sell him on the deal he'll be fine.
 

RedOctober3829

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I wouldn't read much into that, Tatum isn't the kind of guy who throws a teammate under the bus after a tough game, honestly, while Kobe is the guy he idolizes, he's really much more like Durant without the thin skin in terms of personality. His ideal life is to just play Basketball, hang out at home with his family/friends and play more ball.

I think the driver of whether Brown stays of goes will be Jaylen... if they offer him a deal and he says no he's gone, and they'll sell Tatum on it. I have never gotten the impression that Jaylen is a dealbreaker for Tatum, he just wants to play and win, if you can sell him on the deal he'll be fine.
I kind of get the sense that if the Celtics offer Jaylen less than the supermax he won't take it.
 

BigSoxFan

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Yes got it. But also…breaking up that core hasn’t produced improved results either.
Because they did it after Simmons’ value had already cratered. But pissing away Butler and Bridges was definitely the death knell. I certainly hope the Jay’s figure it out. Will be a great sports story if they do.
 

8slim

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Imagine if the management of the 80s Pistons broke up their core because they spent most of the 80s not getting over the hump. They’d have missed out on two NBA titles.

I could say the same thing about the 80s Bulls except that obviously you wouldn’t break them up since they had the best player in the world. But Detroit didn’t. Not only did they have to get past Boston and LA, but they had as a division rival a team that DID have the best player on the planet.
Here's the problem with the "breaking through"/"look at these stars who didn't win a title until age X" stuff... For the most part, those teams had a dynastic franchise in their way that they needed time to overcome. The Pistons had to get past the Bird-led Celtics (obviously), then the Bulls had to get past the Pistons. We've talked about the 80s Bucks before, and they were blocked by the Cs and 76ers.

Needless to say, the Cs haven't had to stare down a singular franchise that's been blocking their ascendance to title winning team. This Heat team, while an incredible story and deserving of their Finals berth, is probably the weakest EC champ in decades. Last year's Warriors team was certainly not as strong as their editions from a few years ago. They lost to an good-but-not-great Heat team in the bubble. Etcetera.

The Cs keep losing to beatable teams, and they've done it with three different head coaches.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I don't blame Mazzulla for putting up a wall during the press conferences. It is TOUGH to be vulnerable when a first year coach at that age, there is a certain authority that needs to be manufactured. And that is without the circumstances of his "interim" hiring in the first place and that it took a long time before CJM even broke out of the interim label by the team.
Mazzulla was always Brads guy. He hired him as an Asst, he was the only coach required to be kept on staff per Brad during the interview process that landed Ime, and I'd have to imagine the only reason the interim tag remained deep into the season was per the lawyers. He's not going anywhere nor was he ever this offseason under the circumstances he was forced to coach under....and it got them to a EC G7 despite him flying alone on the bench without a support staff.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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Man, I said after game 6 that the Celts won despite shooting 20% from 3 and the Heat shooting nearly 50% from 3, and the game shouldn't have even gone to the wire, so I expected some regression from both teams and therefore was pretty optimistic about how the shooting would go last night. Couldn't have been more wrong.
The thing I couldn’t shake was the Heat at 60 percent on three point shooting against the Bucks in game 1. When they nearly matched against the Celtics in game 1 it got harder to dismiss as an anomaly. It is just something they are quite capable of doing if conditions are right and it is what the defense is giving them.

They ended up 48-108 in Boston for the series. They seem to see the rim really well there. The key to beating those fuckers is you have to take advantage when the threes are rimming out. The series I think was lost in game 2. If you look at the records of home teams winning game 2 after losing game 1, it is very high I believe.

I would argue that fourth quarter was the Celtics worst quarter of the season and was where the series was lost. It was even more important than the big quarter in game 1. They had the Heat on the ropes but couldn’t maintain through the end. They wasted a Heat 35 percent three game. You have to beat them when they do that, and that was that.
 

Pablo's TB Lover

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Mazzulla was always Brads guy. He hired him as an Asst, he was the only coach required to be kept on staff per Brad during the interview process that landed Ime, and I'd have to imagine the only reason the interim tag remained deep into the season was per the lawyers. He's not going anywhere nor was he ever this offseason under the circumstances he was forced to coach under....and it got them to a EC G7 despite him flying alone on the bench without a support staff.
Fair: I suppose Brad may have made Mazzulla more comfortable behind closed doors and told him the organization can't formally remove the interim tag until the escape plan from Ime was a little more clear. But also due to the lack of assistant depth previously mentioned by many of us, and the lack of a full offseason to calibrate, there were always going to be in-game and pre/post-game hiccups. But I think filling in below the HC position is the way to go here. Brad should be a very good scout of coaching at this point and having a moldable young coach like CJM will be a great opportunity to improve going into next year.
 

Toe Nash

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Imagine if the management of the 80s Pistons broke up their core because they spent most of the 80s not getting over the hump. They’d have missed out on two NBA titles.

I could say the same thing about the 80s Bulls except that obviously you wouldn’t break them up since they had the best player in the world. But Detroit didn’t. Not only did they have to get past Boston and LA, but they had as a division rival a team that DID have the best player on the planet.
So we should do the same thing and hope that everyone else gets injured and old? Do we have the best rebounder of all time hanging around playing 20 minutes a game?
 

Auger34

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They ended up 48-108 in Boston for the series. They seem to see the rim really welthere. The key to beating those fuckers is you have to take advantage when the threes are rimming out. The series I think was lost in game 2. If you look at the records of home teams winning game 2 after losing game 1, it is very high I believe.
I think the record was like 20-1 in the 7 game playoff era. That was an incredibly bad omen
 

Light-Tower-Power

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Shams reported that Rob was very sick last night and was throwing up in the locker room in between stints. Explains why he only played 13 minutes. Between him, Brogdon, and Tatum it really was a near-impossible uphill battle.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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What puzzles me about this series:

1. They knew they were going to see the zone. All series long they saw the zone. And yet, by game seven, they still didn't seem to have developed good zone-busting plays they could run.
According to Lowe podcast, they scored something like 1.4 ppp against MIA's zone in G5; it's not like they didn't know what to run against it. If they can't make 3Ps, it's going to be tough to bust a zone.
 

BigSoxFan

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Shams reported that Rob was very sick last night and was throwing up in the locker room in between stints. Explains why he only played 13 minutes. Between him, Brogdon, and Tatum it really was a near-impossible uphill battle.
I’m consoling myself with the likelihood that all those factors would have contributed to a very short NBA Finals appearance, had the Celtics been fortunate enough to win. Tatum’s ankle would have been especially problematic. It probably tightened up quite a bit overnight.
 

NomarsFool

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Maybe not "Perfect Storm" but it sure seemed like a confluence of factors were not in our favor. Of course, that just further cements the idea that you need to take care of business when you have the opportunity to take care of business.
 

bosockboy

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Maybe not "Perfect Storm" but it sure seemed like a confluence of factors were not in our favor. Of course, that just further cements the idea that you need to take care of business when you have the opportunity to take care of business.
Yep, should’ve never sniffed a Game 7.
 

Ed Hillel

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Shams reported that Rob was very sick last night and was throwing up in the locker room in between stints. Explains why he only played 13 minutes. Between him, Brogdon, and Tatum it really was a near-impossible uphill battle.
Norovirus is going around I believe. We all had it back to back to back to back over the span of 10 days. Maybe that's the parting gift for the Heat heading to Denver.
 

Nick Kaufman

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Honestly, I'm shocked at how well he's done. For as good as he is, he's insanely limited in how he can do his thing. And he's nearing the age where you plateau. And then become worse. Guys don't discover how to dribble at 27. It's not going to happen for him. I wish it was, but it's not. If that's not going to happen, he really can't get better. Getting lost in rotations? Doesn't usually get better with age. He is who he is.

Do you honestly want to run this back? You thrilled with five conference finals? If that's your aim, we have the core to do exactly what's been described. We're incredibly successful. Cue the duck boats and unfurl the Colts banner.

I'm not being an asshole. I'm just done hoping for this team to magically learn how to win in the biggest moments. Five conference finals, an NBA finals and they still can't do it. Changes need to happen. I'd be thrilled to lose in a less talented way, almost. You've gone as far as you can with this group. Don't double down on this.
FWIW, there's a lot I agree with on your criticism of Brown, but as a rule, players keep on improving on things that have to do with the understanding of the game. Put another way, players keep improving up until age 27 or so, then they start to physically decline. The smart ones forestall that physical decline and maintain the same or perhaps a slightly higher level of play by understanding the game better. It's only after they are in their thirties that the physical decline becomes overwhelming and the performance starts dropping steadily. In other words, I cannot preclude the possibility that Brown becomes better at dribbling or reading defenses. But sooner or later his leaping ability and explosiveness are going to start getting worse. And in that respect, Brown's game doesn't seem like one that ages well, unlike let's say Curry's.
 

Cellar-Door

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The one where he's furious that Al Horford threw the ball to the corner for a wide open 3 instead of trying to dunk on Bam, and argued it was proof they don't know how to beat zone was perhaps his "apex mountain"
 

Imbricus

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Okay, he's annoying, he's often wrong: but a lot of this is spot on, with regard to breaking the zone. Everyone's hanging out on the perimeter and no one is cutting to the basket for a possibly easy layup.

Why does everyone hang out on the perimeter? I don't know, but I wonder if part of it is Mazz's "I love threes" philosophy, which drives me nuts about the guy. He gets asked in post-game presser, "Did you take too many threes?" Clipped answer: "No." Well, if they aren't falling, you can't always count on variance to get you back to your average shooting percentage. You need to find another way to make a basket. This becomes particularly true if you know you're the better team, by raw talent, because you can win other ways.

All this reminds me of Shaq post-game, who was funny. He was shaking his head about the Celtics missing one three-pointer after another in the first quarter. He said something like, if players on his team missed 10 threes in a row, in the next huddle he's saying something like, "The next guy who shoots a three, I'm going to punch him in the face." I'm not Shaq-level here, but if the threes aren't falling, I think you at least need to be sure you're only taking really good threes in the flow of the offense.
 

NomarsFool

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Why does everyone hang out on the perimeter? I don't know, but I wonder if part of it is Mazz's "I love threes" philosophy, which drives me nuts about the guy. He gets asked in post-game presser, "Did you take too many threes?" Clipped answer: "No." Well, if they aren't falling, you can't always count on variance to get you back to your average shooting percentage. You need to find another way to make a basket. This becomes particularly true if you know you're the better team, by raw talent, because you can win other ways.
So, if you call "heads" on a coin flip three times in a row and lose, does that mean you should start calling "tails" on the next one? Assuming there is nothing wrong with the coin, the answer is "no". The assumption seems to be that there is some external reason why the threes aren't going in and you need to adjust the strategy - I'm not sure I agree with that. For an individual player - maybe they aren't feeling the touch on a given day - but as a team, I'm not seeing it.

That said, I did hear the clip where CJM was asked if he had any second thoughts or wished he had done anything differently in games 1-3 and his answer was "no". I thought that was unbelievably ridiculous. Any time you lose, it's pretty normal to have second thoughts and wonder if there is something that you could have done differently. The answer might be "no", but everyone should at least go back and think about whether there is something different that could have been done.
 

benhogan

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Okay, he's annoying, he's often wrong: but a lot of this is spot on, with regard to breaking the zone. Everyone's hanging out on the perimeter and no one is cutting to the basket for a possibly easy layup.

Why does everyone hang out on the perimeter? I don't know, but I wonder if part of it is Mazz's "I love threes" philosophy, which drives me nuts about the guy. He gets asked in post-game presser, "Did you take too many threes?" Clipped answer: "No." Well, if they aren't falling, you can't always count on variance to get you back to your average shooting percentage. You need to find another way to make a basket. This becomes particularly true if you know you're the better team, by raw talent, because you can win other ways.

All this reminds me of Shaq post-game, who was funny. He was shaking his head about the Celtics missing one three-pointer after another in the first quarter. He said something like, if players on his team missed 10 threes in a row, in the next huddle he's saying something like, "The next guy who shoots a three, I'm going to punch him in the face." I'm not Shaq-level here, but if the threes aren't falling, I think you at least need to be sure you're only taking really good threes in the flow of the offense.
Getting the ball into the middle is fundamental to breaking down a ZONE. Once the ball gets to the NAIL the weak side Corner guy needs to immediately cut baseline to the basket. Zero-player movement leads to the dreaded Potted Plant offense.

People will shout this down with variance and Miami 3pt luck, but Boston's approach was sub-optimal. Expect they will correct some of these flaws with better/more Seasoned Asst Coaches added this summer.
 

Toe Nash

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Why does everyone hang out on the perimeter? I don't know, but I wonder if part of it is Mazz's "I love threes" philosophy, which drives me nuts about the guy. He gets asked in post-game presser, "Did you take too many threes?" Clipped answer: "No." Well, if they aren't falling, you can't always count on variance to get you back to your average shooting percentage. You need to find another way to make a basket. This becomes particularly true if you know you're the better team, by raw talent, because you can win other ways.
Well, shooting 3s is the best way to come back into a game, but also, they did switch up the offense but their best player at doing that was playing on one foot and their second best committed 8 turnovers.

They won game 6 shooting 20% from 3, largely because Tatum and Brown scored 57 points while hitting 0 threes but getting 25 free throws. That's really hard to do and basically impossible with Tatum hobbled.
 

8slim

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So, if you call "heads" on a coin flip three times in a row and lose, does that mean you should start calling "tails" on the next one? Assuming there is nothing wrong with the coin, the answer is "no". The assumption seems to be that there is some external reason why the threes aren't going in and you need to adjust the strategy - I'm not sure I agree with that. For an individual player - maybe they aren't feeling the touch on a given day - but as a team, I'm not seeing it.
That’s all well and good over the course of the regular season. Big sample, “variance” evens out.

But in a win-or-go-home situation you *gotta* change tactics if 3 pointers aren’t falling. The idea that you just keep chucking, missing, shrug and say “what can you do?” drives me batty. These are pro ballers with a multitude of offensive skills.
 

kieckeredinthehead

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Jun 26, 2006
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People will shout this down with variance and Miami 3pt luck, but Boston's approach was sub-optimal. Expect they will correct some of these flaws with better/more Seasoned Asst Coaches added this summer.
Pre-2008, finance incorrectly treated loan failures as independent events. In 2016, election prognosticators incorrectly treated state level outcomes as independent events. I’m getting the sense that some teams (the Houston Hardens, the Slingin’ Mazullas) are incorrectly treating single three point shots as independent events rather than as nested within game and within series. There is literally no way that you get the Heat and Celtics 3 pt shooting this series through shot to shot random chance. p<0.0001. I don’t know WHY the Heat shot like Curry and the Celtics shot like Giannis, but that’s why they call them random effects.

Edit: to use the metaphor above, I bet a lot of teams are treating shot outcomes as being from the same coin, but it seems pretty obvious at this point that each game uses a differently weighted coin selected from a bag that changes series to series.

double edit: Just want to emphasize I’m using the 08 financial collapse and 16 election as examples of very smart people with a lot more to lose getting this wrong before anybody blithely insists that teams’ analysts are much more sophisticated than we could ever imagine.
 
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