Celtics vs Heat ECF Redux Discussion Thread

OurF'ingCity

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slamminsammya

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This article has the odds - https://www.sportsinsights.com/blog/nlcs-game-7-analysis-st-louis-cardinals-vs-san-francisco-giants/ - but I'm not a bettor so not exactly sure how to interpret. Since it says that all but two times the home team was the favorite, I'm thinking the MFYs were favorites but I could certainly be wrong about that.
This article has the Red Sox as favored: https://www.sportsinsights.com/blog/nlcs-game-7-analysis-st-louis-cardinals-vs-san-francisco-giants/

The odds were
2004 ALCS Red Sox Yankees
-166/+158​
-153/+145​
37%​
10-3 BOS


Not sure what the second to last column is referring to but both odds there have the Sox favored.
 

OurF'ingCity

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This article has the Red Sox as favored: https://www.sportsinsights.com/blog/nlcs-game-7-analysis-st-louis-cardinals-vs-san-francisco-giants/

The odds were
2004 ALCS Red Sox Yankees
-166/+158​
-153/+145​
37%​
10-3 BOS


Not sure what the second to last column is referring to but both odds there have the Sox favored.
I think you're reading that wrong, I think the odds are listed as Home/Away. It's the only way the comment about the road team being only favored twice makes sense.
 

mcpickl

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Do we want that though? With White in particular I think we'd want him out there as much as possible unless he gets into foul trouble. I thought he was one of their better defenders in Game 6, to say nothing of the couple of huge threes he hit.
I'd like to keep them both under 40 minutes, yeah.

If Brogdon isn't completely compromised and can give you the 5-6 minutes around the quarter breaks in each half to get Smart/White down to around 37 minutes each, I think that'd be helpful in keeping them more fresh late.
 

lovegtm

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That is super unfair to the efforts Nick went to to bring evidence specifically about basketball. I assume you didn't bother reading the quotes, and just decided to be a dick to him anyway?

And, God forbid someone brings some actual research to the table to help answer questions, and has a discussion about it with other posters. If you want to keep your ball talk low-brow, there's always *gestures at the rest of the internet*.
was having a bad day; I'll delete
 

JCizzle

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Do we want that though? With White in particular I think we'd want him out there as much as possible unless he gets into foul trouble. I thought he was one of their better defenders in Game 6, to say nothing of the couple of huge threes he hit.
Yeah, I think Brogdon playing is a pretty big negative unless he can actually hit threes.
 

Euclis20

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If Brogdon comes back and plays like he has for the entire series (7 ppg, 33% from the field and 19% from 3) then obviously his presence isn't too helpful, especially considering that regardless of his health, he's the worst defender in the top 8. Gotta hope him being available means there's a chance he can be effective on offense. They definitely missed him in game 6:

-They were godawful from 3, and he was arguably their best 3 point shooter this year.
-Jaylen's foul trouble during the game was a major issue, and while he didn't end up missing much time, it definitely changed how aggressive he could be on defense. Having Brogdon available off the bench obviously would've taken some of the pressure off.
-Grant was awful. 1 point and 3 rebounds in 22 minutes, but Boston essentially had no choice but to play him with Brogdon out.

I think it's very likely to be a repeat of game 5 for him (0-2 and pulled after just 8 minutes with him clearly hurting), but I think it's worth a shot to keep him available, the upside is too great to ignore (far more than just grabbing a few extra minutes of rest for White/Smart).
 

Ferm Sheller

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Question: If you were to go to Boston to hang out near the Garden tonight, where would you go to watch the game? Can’t afford the current ticket prices (Should have pounced yesterday), but would love to take my boy to be around the energy and excitement of a Game 7.
Banners? Lots of TVs and a good place to watch the game. Trouble is, you're going to have to compete with the Garden crowd after the game gets out.

https://www.bannerskitchenandtap.com/
 

Ferm Sheller

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Second Banners possibly being your best shot. I'm not sure if any of the other bars/restaurants around the Garden will be letting under 21 in tonight.
Great point. The boy does not yet look old enough for a fake ID. :)
I took my son (underage) to Banners for Game 5 against Philly and it was no problem. Lots of kids in there. Just need to sit at a table, not the bar, of course.
 

finnVT

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Is this real or is this another one of those “Boston is 187-0 in games reffed by Scott Foster” things?
Per this (https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/MIA/2023_referees.html) it looks like they were 0-5, not 0-10. And that the C's were 5-1, not 7-2. I'm not sure where the discrepancy comes from though.

More generally though, MIA all time is 62-51 with Brothers, while BOS is 64-51. And in the playoffs, BOS is 7-17, while MIA is 17-10. (https://www.basketball-reference.com/referees/brothto99r.html#all_refs-summary). There's nothing to it.
 

Tudor Fever

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An advantage of Brogdon being available is that he might be better chew-up-a-few-minutes bench option than Grant if Grant has another terrible game. Joe needs to have a quick hook on Brogdon, though.
 

nighthob

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Lol…
The simple solution (assuming that this was called correctly) would be to not allow any player that has lost his dribble to touch the ball after a fumble - at least until the ball has bounced twice or someone else has touched the ball.
I think that’s what most people assumed was the rule anyway. I know if I was playing pickup ball and fumbled the ball after ending a dribble I wouldn’t think to try to touch it again - unless it bounced twice or someone else touched it. Certainly if I did and I was called on it, I wouldn’t feel like I had any right to complain.
I'm pretty sure that's covered by the rule prohibiting a player from passing the ball to himself. Which Butler has also done this series...
 

joe dokes

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Agree on all accounts, he was classic Marcus in the 1st half. Getting underneath Alpha's, drawing charges, and frustrating them is his special sauce. He couldn't come close to do that after 35mins. 42mins is just too much

I would have agreed with you by using my memory, but re-watched this AM. They actually were going early, it wasn't their classic prevent offense. They attacked early enough, but just couldn't get a shot to go down or get a friendly whistle.
Thanks for looking. I sure didn't. Just memories from other games, I suppose.
 

nighthob

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Do we want that though? With White in particular I think we'd want him out there as much as possible unless he gets into foul trouble. I thought he was one of their better defenders in Game 6, to say nothing of the couple of huge threes he hit.
I expect that Brogdon is just there to give Marcus and White a little more rest.
 

Devizier

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this story is really picking up some life. Have to imagine it will reach the Celtics. Bad karma/mojo for a team already reeling
I mean it’s a nothingburger since if the Heat lose they have no immediate plans regardless. Practically speaking you make the plans for Denver and cancel if you have to.
 

jablo1312

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Brogdon can in theory help keep their turnover rate low as a backup PG (though that wasn't the case earlier in this series). Just getting a few competent minutes each half, which includes not shooting if his arms not feeling healthy, could be key just to get White + Smart a little bit of rest.

Shooting variance was a huge story from g6, but the Celtics need to clean up their 3 pt defense. In the first half they gave up 5-6 wide open 3's to good shooters mostly as a result of mis-communications:

View: https://youtu.be/0buSm0LWrWM?t=21


View: https://youtu.be/0buSm0LWrWM?t=87


View: https://youtu.be/0buSm0LWrWM?t=100


View: https://youtu.be/0buSm0LWrWM?t=132


View: https://youtu.be/0buSm0LWrWM?t=171


The last 2 especially were pretty egregious. Hope they can clean this up before tn.
 

BaseballJones

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I'm pretty sure that's covered by the rule prohibiting a player from passing the ball to himself. Which Butler has also done this series...
FYI - you are allowed to take the ball (if you haven't dribbled yet) and toss it down the court, and after it bounces, pick it up, and then shoot it. Or, if you threw the ball with one hand, you can gather the ball after it's bounced with one hand in a dribbling motion (you know how some people "gather" a loose ball by dribbling it instead of grabbing it THEN dribbling it?). That's all legal.

What you can't do is toss it downcourt, then grab it with both hands and start dribbling again.
 

Auger34

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I mean it’s a nothingburger since if the Heat lose they have no immediate plans regardless. Practically speaking you make the plans for Denver and cancel if you have to.
You’re 100% right but when it comes to motivation/bulletin board material, logic is thrown out of the window most of the time.
 

Kliq

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Posting here to avoid game thread nonsense, but I don't think the Heat really got THAT many better looks tonight than the Celtics. Celtics have really struggled from three, even with decent looks, while Heat have really shot lights out.
 

DeadlySplitter

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I would have liked to see this game played out with Tatum 100%. It just cascaded down to Brown needing to ball handle more and... we saw what happened.

Brad has another tough summer ahead.
 

Jimy Hendrix

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Posting here to avoid game thread nonsense, but I don't think the Heat really got THAT many better looks tonight than the Celtics. Celtics have really struggled from three, even with decent looks, while Heat have really shot lights out.
We’ve struggled on the good threes, but we’re taking so many bad threes too. Every time they just walk up and hoist one without even a pass, my soul dies a little.
 

Kliq

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We’ve struggled on the good threes, but we’re taking so many bad threes too. Every time they just walk up and hoist one without even a pass, my soul dies a little.
I feel like the hoists though are a sympytom of Tatum not being able to create anything.
 

Devizier

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We’ve struggled on the good threes, but we’re taking so many bad threes too. Every time they just walk up and hoist one without even a pass, my soul dies a little.
I haven’t criticized Coach Joe very much but at some point you can’t just shoot your way out of these kinds of slumps. Try and work some different action. I don’t know.
 

CaptainLaddie

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FWIW I'm terrified of the Heat. They're certainly not more talented than the Celtics but good lord Spo is an elite elite elite Coach and as much as I want CJM to be great, he's not Spo. Add in that the Heat will never play stupid, they won't commit dumb turnovers, and they are absolutely going to compete for every loose ball and every inch... man.

Based on talent alone, it should be 4-1 Celtics. I'm expecting 7 and I'm terrified to say that I think the Heat will win because they just have an enormous amount of confidence and skill.
WELP
 

blueline

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I would have liked to see this game played out with Tatum 100%. It just cascaded down to Brown needing to ball handle more and... we saw what happened.

Brad has another tough summer ahead.
I think looking back on this game with time the Tatum injury is going to be the dominant thread, but I'm really holding it in right now. I'm so mad and disappointed with tonight's performance and the overall trajectory of this team.
 

Pablo's TB Lover

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A) Brogdon getting 7 straight minutes of run in the first half was 7 minutes too much.
B) D. White was the ONLY guy who realized the magnitude of the JT injury and took it upon himself to try and create more offense. Everyone else just stayed within their current role and did not go above and beyond.
C) Cs let the Heat dictate the pace from the jump. Next to zero run outs and fast break attempts.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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Credit to Miami for overcoming a crushing loss and making sure they did not end up as a historical note.

The Celtics could use a little of their resilience. Fuck.
 

4 6 3 DP

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Even watching Joe in the press conference, moment is just so too big for him.

Wyc is a smart businessman - can't imagine he's going to write the checks he's going to need to with that guy running the show. You don't put real coaches around a figurehead. You get a real leader.
 

InstaFace

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Posting here to avoid game thread nonsense, but I don't think the Heat really got THAT many better looks tonight than the Celtics. Celtics have really struggled from three, even with decent looks, while Heat have really shot lights out.
This was the game in a nutshell. Was Tatum affected by the ankle, especially on D? Yeah, but moreso in the second half, and there weren't too many plays he gave up. Was the reffing off a bit at times? Sure. But none of that added up to a 19 point deficit. It was entirely the 3 point shooting. Was the same in Game 6, but somehow we got away with it. I said at the time, we weren't going to shoot 7 for 35 from deep again. But God help me, we somehow shot worse. Same % roughly but on even higher volume.

I dunno what happened to our 3s. Maybe it was Brogdon out. Jaylen certainly didn't look to catch and shoot his 3s, very tentative when catching it beyond the arc. Maybe theirs were wide open more and ours were locked down and taken with hands in the face. I dunno, I can't think straight right now. But with a more even performance from 3, that game is a lot closer and other things can start to matter. As it was, there's no real story here other than the 3s.
 

CaptainLaddie

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Last two games from 3, 16-77. That's hard to comprehend.
Just ran this on Stathead.

This year three teams shot at least 70 3PA in a 2-game span and made less than 21% of them. Those teams went 1-5 combined in those games.

The Celtics haven't *had* a 2-game span like this in team history -- except in the 2018-19 playoffs in two of those games in the Bucks series.

https://stathead.com/tiny/ctchI