no I think it's on point, BJ. No sports analysis will ever have a sufficient dataset to fully answer all questions and fully control for all variables. But neither is it useless: we can infer some things, and/or weight some things lower (while still not weighting their conclusions as zeroes). At the very least, we ought to be surprised that Philly did so well with their MVP out, and it raises followup questions for people to dig into, time and inclination permitting.
Fair. I think we saw in Game 1 why Philly may have been successful without Embiid:
(1) Harden is freed up to be...James Harden. And when Harden is Harden, he absolutely is an offensive monster.
and
(2) They play a lot faster and freer without him. He's a phenomenal player (Embiid), obviously, but he also slows things down for them and sometimes their offense gets really bogged down. And they have some dynamic players who won't touch the ball nearly as much with Embiid in the lineup. Maybe their team mix just works better without him.
And so with that in mind, here's looking at the games without Embiid...
at Tor (W, 112-90) - Maxey 44 points (9-12 from three!), Harden 11 points on 9 shots
at Was (W, 118-111) - Harden 23 points, 17 (!) assists, Maxey 28 points, Harris 16, Melton 16
vs Was (L, 121-111) - Maxey 32 points, Harden 24 points, Harris 16
vs NY (L, 106-104) - Maxey 31 points, Harden 23 points
vs Brk (W, 115-106) - Harris 24 points, Melton 22 points, Reed 19 points, Niang 16 (no Harden)
at Cha (L, 107-101) - Milton (not Melton) 22 points, Melton 20, Harris 19 (no Harden)
at Orl (W, 107-99) - Milton 24 points, Harris 23 points, Niang 18 (no Harden)
at Orl (W, 133-103) - Milton 29 points, Harris 25 (no Harden)
vs Ind (W, 129-126) - Harden 26 points, Harris 19, Melton 19, Maxey 17
vs Chi (L, 126-112) - Maxey 26, Harris 22, Harden 17 points, 11 assists
at Det (W, 123-111) - Maxey 23, Harden 20, Harrell 20, Reed 16, Niang 14
at Sac (W, 129-127) - Maxey 32, Harris 17, Harrell 17, Niang 17 (no Harden)
at Mia (W, 119-96) - Maxey 27, Harden 23, Harris 18, Reed 16
at Den (L, 116-111) - Maxey 29, Harris 16, Reed 16 (no Harden)
at Atl (W, 136-131) - McDaniels 24, Niang 24, House 22 (no Harden)
at Brk (W, 134-105) - Milton 20, McClung 20, King 20, Reed 17, 7 in double figures (no Harden)
at Brk (W, 96-88) - Harris 25, Harden 17 points, 11 assists, Maxey 16, Melton 15
at Bos (W, 119-115) - Harden 45, Maxey 26, Harris 18, Melton 17
It seems like other guys just step up and get the chance to shine. Harden (contrary to my thesis above) really hasn't exploded all the time when Embiid has been out, but he's definitely had some big games. Players like Maxey and Melton have been given more opportunity to shine, and as it turns out, they're both pretty good. Turns out Reed is pretty good too. Averaged 4.5 points a game in the regular season but has really done well when playing serious minutes without Embiid.