Celtics vs 76ers, Round 2 Discussion
- Thread starter DeadlySplitter
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I thought he looked fine defensively in the games he played against the Celtics this year but holy crap I can't believe he is collecting a $37.6M paycheck for his work.
The only thing I’d add to this is being smart with double teams. He is susceptible to turnovers if you flash the double just as he is spinning away from the baseline back into the teeth of the D. It’s an art form to time it right without fouling or opening an easy pass for him but this is an area Smart/White/Brogdon can really help frustrate him as long as the bigs hold up.
Even the Philly media are finding few reasons to favor the 76ers. Every matchup and stat favors Boston. Embiid has already layered in his excuse for this year’s playoffs. This is his legacy, how he will be remembered, as this gifted 7-foot-2 center who was never fully healthy when his team needed him the most.
Boston in five. Harden can’t finish and Embiid can’t stay healthy. Philly may have to get physical. Not even sure they can beat Boston in that department, although Tatum seems soft to me.
Boston in five. Harden can’t finish and Embiid can’t stay healthy. Philly may have to get physical. Not even sure they can beat Boston in that department, although Tatum seems soft to me.
You mean the same 538 that said BOS had an 80%+ chance of beating GS in the Finals last year?
That’s not good enough.
That’s how you saw the Finals? You saw a better team lose to plucky underdogs? I saw a hobbled and exhausted C’s team that was just done. Those were two variables that literally were not part of 538’s calculations and were discussed in pretty good detail here as flaws in the system.
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538 also had the C's at 53% favorites in the 2017 Eastern Conference Finals against the Cavs. That system doesn't give superstars (Lebron, Curry) enough credit.
I will never understand how people can blame this on fatigue. The game prior we crushed them by double digits then only had 3 games over 8 days along with the adrenaline of being 2 games from a Title.
Tatum: “That was part of something I wanted to change from my experience in the Finals and my level of fatigue.”
https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/knicks-heat-set-to-renew-rivalry-in-the-playoffs-that-once-featured-brawls-and-suspensions-in-the-1990s/
Ime Udoka used the word “fatigue” seven times in his press conference after losing Game 5. Six times in response to questions not directly on the topic.
https://nba.nbcsports.com/2022/06/16/celtics-showing-fatigue-late-in-nba-finals/
“I’m sure that’s part of it. Not only mental but physical as well, with Rob playing through some of the things he was, being in and out in previous series. It probably had a toll on Al where we had to overextend him at times. Jayson and Jaylen grinding us out, Marcus as well, all those guys had some bumps and bruises at some point. Having to fight those two hard-fought seven-game series.”
https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/celtics/did-fatigue-contribute-celtics-demise-nba-finals
As it turns out, pulling off an incredible midseason turnaround saps a team of significant energy. Though the Celtics had other reasons for dropping the NBA Finals to the Warriors in six games, Stevens believes fatigue factored into his team’s downfall. As he enters his second offseason as Boston’s president of basketball operations, one of his goals will be to alleviate some of the burden on the team’s best players, including Jayson Tatum. Stevens wants to make sure the Celtics are built to limit the wear and tear on their main pieces.
https://theathletic.com/3376949/2022/06/22/celtics-nba-finals-brad-stevens/
“I was just exhausted,” [Tatum] says. “Mentally, physically.”
https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/insider/story/_/id/35307668/jayson-tatum-six-months-nba-finals-loss-know-takes-now
https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/knicks-heat-set-to-renew-rivalry-in-the-playoffs-that-once-featured-brawls-and-suspensions-in-the-1990s/
Ime Udoka used the word “fatigue” seven times in his press conference after losing Game 5. Six times in response to questions not directly on the topic.
https://nba.nbcsports.com/2022/06/16/celtics-showing-fatigue-late-in-nba-finals/
“I’m sure that’s part of it. Not only mental but physical as well, with Rob playing through some of the things he was, being in and out in previous series. It probably had a toll on Al where we had to overextend him at times. Jayson and Jaylen grinding us out, Marcus as well, all those guys had some bumps and bruises at some point. Having to fight those two hard-fought seven-game series.”
https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/celtics/did-fatigue-contribute-celtics-demise-nba-finals
As it turns out, pulling off an incredible midseason turnaround saps a team of significant energy. Though the Celtics had other reasons for dropping the NBA Finals to the Warriors in six games, Stevens believes fatigue factored into his team’s downfall. As he enters his second offseason as Boston’s president of basketball operations, one of his goals will be to alleviate some of the burden on the team’s best players, including Jayson Tatum. Stevens wants to make sure the Celtics are built to limit the wear and tear on their main pieces.
https://theathletic.com/3376949/2022/06/22/celtics-nba-finals-brad-stevens/
“I was just exhausted,” [Tatum] says. “Mentally, physically.”
https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/insider/story/_/id/35307668/jayson-tatum-six-months-nba-finals-loss-know-takes-now
That Atl blown lead is brutal, but he might be fucked anyway:
View: https://twitter.com/timbontemps/status/1652353450280202248?s=42&t=-Ai-mpXJJ05V-SE-SPRBGA
View: https://twitter.com/timbontemps/status/1652353450280202248?s=42&t=-Ai-mpXJJ05V-SE-SPRBGA
PR quotes, really?
Funny how nobody was “exhausted” in G3 yet were gassed the following week with 2 days off between games. Hmmmm. Maybe the extra rest tired them out.
If the Celtics beat Atlanta in Game 5, Game 1 against Philly would have been tonight.
Oh, he's still upset about Game 5 from back on Tuesday. Ok.
Yeah 2 more days helps Jaylen's finger, it helps Time Lord's knees, Al's back... it's not all one-sided for Embiid. Maybe the only thing a few extra days can't help with is Celtics fans' anger management issues.
Maybe I'm not understanding, but the extra game absolutely helped Philly and did nothing good for Boston (at least regarding injuries and rest). If the Celtics had closed out Atlanta in 5, game 1 would be today and the Celtics would've had 3 full days of rest. Now game 1 is Monday, which means Boston still gets a full 3 days of rest, but had to play an additional game. All those nagging injuries for the Celtics didn't get better because they kept playing. Meanwhile Embiid (and Harden) got another 2 full days of rest, and for Embiid he'll have a full 10 days off between games. The extra game is bad to neutral for Boston, and neutral to good for Philly. Maybe there's value in getting into a competitive playoff series before you face a truly difficult opponent, otherwise there's no benefit to having to play game 6.
I'm not a mathematician or anything, but isn't Tuesday -> Sat and Thursday -> Monday the same amount of rest, what with the wear-and-tear of another game to boot?
Edit: already covered.
People can certainly discuss the cost of the game five lost to the Hawks but the Celtics are here - they lost the game and Philadelphia might benefit. Embiid and the 76ers got more rest and perhaps that will be the delta in the series. Its hard to see how we can reverse that loss though and maybe its time to discuss how they can beat the 6ers even if they are more healthy than they were yesterday or two days ago.
Philly gets to use the “rusty” excuse only for Game 1. Game 2 is going to be interesting.
We've probably seen Embiid enough over the years to know when the going gets tough Joel will be doubled over, hyperventilating, grabbing for his leg while the Celtics run down the court.
Although he hasn't done much against the C's this year Tyrese Maxey still scares me in an Andrew Toney-type way
View: https://twitter.com/JDumasReports/status/1652368387291619329
This suggests it's not a grade 1, but a grade 2. Take all this with a grain of salt. Dumas is a legit reporter, but who knows.
This suggests it's not a grade 1, but a grade 2. Take all this with a grain of salt. Dumas is a legit reporter, but who knows.
Cardio goes pretty rapidly, and I would take the under on the amount of cardio Embiid has done since getting hurt.
It's impossible to quantify, but there's absolutely value in bouncing back from an awful loss and closing out a series on the road against a fired-up opponent with nothing to lose. The mental (and physical) toughness that feat required should help the C's when adversity arises again this offseason, as it inevitably will.
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But game 2 would have been the same as it is. If Embiid misses game 1, he would also have missed game 1 in the reality where the Celts beat the Hawks in 5, and have been exactly as rested for game 2.
It’s a weird lie for the MVP candidate, coach and president to coordinate starting the day after the game and running a full year later.
It’s also a weird theory that human beings can never be tired as long as they have two full days rest. Maybe that’s why only one team has ever won three game 7s in a single postseason? Or why there are 30 year olds who have never seen the league leader in minutes win a championship?
Here’s the shot percentage by quarter in game 5: .474, .450, .360, .333, and everything was front rimmed. Hmmm. Maybe the adrenaline wore off.
Is mental fatigue not a thing? If so, wouldn't that favor experience versus youth?
For curiosity sake alone, I’d pay a lot of money to see Embiid’s MRI. A very atypical injury. Is there a video of the play it happened on?
If it’s a bad sprain, a month to full strength is optimistic but I can’t emphasize enough how weird an isolated LCL injury is in basketball.
Timelord is obviously way less valuable than Embiid, but in a general sense he takes the Celtics from clear favorites to “in the mix” in my opinion. So if Rob is also not healthy (he looked good early and terrible late vs Atl), that still is a huge factor.
If it’s a bad sprain, a month to full strength is optimistic but I can’t emphasize enough how weird an isolated LCL injury is in basketball.
Timelord is obviously way less valuable than Embiid, but in a general sense he takes the Celtics from clear favorites to “in the mix” in my opinion. So if Rob is also not healthy (he looked good early and terrible late vs Atl), that still is a huge factor.
Any conversation on how much you believe in 538's predictions that doesn't involve 2016 is like the Philly roster without Joel Embiid.
Great, thanks.
I honestly don’t see the isolated LCL injury. That requires your knee to bend out (varus), a pretty uncommon way to hurt your knee.
In my complete armchair opinion….He’s either got a bunch of things going on with his knee beyond the LCL or the injury isn’t that bad.
That's the glass half full view, and it's certainly valid. The glass half empty view would be that the bad habits we saw on and off last year in the playoffs and during the regular season are still an issue, one that could ultimately doom this team. Either could be true, or neither, or both.
Very, very interesting.
The latest reporting from The Athletic is that he has more going on than just the LCL sprain (which dovetails with what you’re saying).
However, I don’t think anyone should discount how much Doc loves to give himself excuses for his teams not living up to their talent
It’s almost always more complicated than they say in the media. So in the end, who knows.
I see a lot of the LA pro and college athletes (and never discuss here of course), but what people think is going on is often not what is actually going on.
His leg gets trapped between the fallen Brooklyn player's legs and his leg does sort of bend oddly. It happens at around 2 seconds into the video.
Perhaps I'm giving him too much credit, but I think Embiid is a sharp guy who cares about his legacy and reputation, and is deeply aware that people see him as soft and believe that he's to blame for the Sixers lack of postseason success (his conditioning repeatedly leading to early exits).
In this season, more than any before it -- because of his impending MVP coronation -- Embiid will be judged for what happens in the playoffs. Win the MVP, but lose in the second round again? He'll be (fairly or unfairly) labeled a failure. My guess is that he wants to avoid that at all costs.
Which is my long-winded way of saying that I think the injury is bad and he's in a lot of pain -- perhaps even the sort of injury that has the team doctors saying "he might be putting future effectiveness at risk if he tries to play through it." Otherwise, he'd push through it. Because perception is becoming reality.
In this season, more than any before it -- because of his impending MVP coronation -- Embiid will be judged for what happens in the playoffs. Win the MVP, but lose in the second round again? He'll be (fairly or unfairly) labeled a failure. My guess is that he wants to avoid that at all costs.
Which is my long-winded way of saying that I think the injury is bad and he's in a lot of pain -- perhaps even the sort of injury that has the team doctors saying "he might be putting future effectiveness at risk if he tries to play through it." Otherwise, he'd push through it. Because perception is becoming reality.
It's generally incomplete.
I don't see a much false info, mainly just not the whole story.
I see that, but still not sure I really see a typical LCL mechanism.
For the LCL to be the main issue, usually you need your knee to buckle out. Hard to describe without seeing it, but it's very uncommon.
So do you think there is “collateral” damage to the LCL injury? Cause pure LCL injuries seem to be relatively uncommon. PLC injury perhaps?
Could be.
If there isn't a "twist" of the knee (which I don't see too clearly on that video), I expect either meniscus or ACL/PCL more than MLC/LCL.