Second round picks are not that worthless, at least financially. Second round picks do not have rookie scale limits, so players can be offered minimum salaries, either guaranteed or nonguaranteed.
Celtics Draft Pick Watch 2016
- Thread starter wutang112878
- Start date
If only there were an explanation of the rankings and how they get to them that people could read and understand and discuss in a way that isn't just willful ignorance tied to conjecture made in an argumentative and dismissive way.
I have read and understand how they are created. I see a flaw in valuing a pick based on the player who was selected there for many reasons. I see the value of a pick being tied to the team being able to select the player they have ranked highest on their board, development time table, positional need skews this very much as well.
A player like Rodney Hood was selected at 23. If he was taken at 22 by the Grizzlies he would probably be close to as valuable to them as he is now to the Jazz. If he would have been taken at 21 by the Thunder, he would have been a great piece for the Thunder, but his results wouldn't have been ranked as high for the methodology of this ranking. Maybe Hood is too recent to make an example out of. But if Philly had taken Hood at 12 instead of Saric the value of that pick would be much more than it is with Saric still overseas...
Also, I probably value this draft less because the Celts have many picks next year and in the future as well as what is on the roster now. Which shouldn't have anything to do with the rankings.
The Sixers are playing just some of the worst defensive basketball they have at any point in the rebuild. It's a really disappointing trend, and while it continues they're not winning more than a couple of games. Between this and the number of home games the Lakers have left I don't think at the moment that the Sixers can be "caught" for the worst record (the first of the three year tank btw).
So Lakers Suns for 2/3 it seems and then Timberwolves vs Nets for 4/5.
Unless something drastically changes that seems to be the debates then then lottery. The Lakers slipping to 3 would seem to leave them in a bad spot. Anyone jumps them they lose the pick to the Sixers.
So Lakers Suns for 2/3 it seems and then Timberwolves vs Nets for 4/5.
Unless something drastically changes that seems to be the debates then then lottery. The Lakers slipping to 3 would seem to leave them in a bad spot. Anyone jumps them they lose the pick to the Sixers.
It is not as much a statistically difference as you would think (or at least I would have thought):
At #2 worst record, Lakers have a ~44% to lose the pick at #4 or 5
At #3, they have a 53% chance to lose the pick at #4, 5 or 6
The draft pick haul of the 76ers the last few years is really incredible and I would think unprecedented. Then again their continued poor performance despite these picks is pretty amazing too.
At #2 worst record, Lakers have a ~44% to lose the pick at #4 or 5
At #3, they have a 53% chance to lose the pick at #4, 5 or 6
The draft pick haul of the 76ers the last few years is really incredible and I would think unprecedented. Then again their continued poor performance despite these picks is pretty amazing too.
This is correct. A better ranking might be based on expected surplus value for each pick. Or is tankathon using something VORP-related and I'm not aware of it?
alex len with 31. i understand that he's lately been playing pretty well when he's healthy.
Only 2 games worse than #5 Wolves. Lots of bad teams on the upcoming schedule for Brooklyn. Getting concerned we may fall to #5 when all is said and done, which would be a great outcome based on the trade but disappointing given that they spent so much time in the 3 spot. Can't believe Lopez stayed healthy all year.
Will be disappointing that Minny and Phoenix tanked as much as they did, but I imagine the pick is getting traded if it's not top-2 and that was always going to be a long shot. And who knows, maybe the ping pong balls fall the Cs' way for once.
...and a Lopez tip-in with 0.4 seconds left results in a Nets win. That's two last second wins against the Nuggets this season.
Brooklyn rests Young and Lopez against Minny, thanks guys! Back to two games behind Minny, two ahead of Los Suns.
And Dallas loses to Denver in OT. The Mavs are just 3.5 games up on the 9th seeded Jazz, and 9 of their next ten games are against playoff teams. The 10th is against the Pistons, who are in 9th in the EC and a half-game out of a playoff spot.
It's a long shot, but you can't out the possibility of the Cs getting two lottery picks without missing the playoffs.
It's a long shot, but you can't out the possibility of the Cs getting two lottery picks without missing the playoffs.
Lottery has no head to head tiebreakers. If two teams tie for 3rd they average 3rd and 4th, and each team gets that many combinations. If it isn't an integer they flip a coin for who gets the 1 extra combination.
Even if it is, they flip a coin to see who picks first in case neither team gets into the top 3.
Pick Updates
4- BKL. Phoenix winning two in a row gives leaves them just one game ahead of BKL in the loss column. MINN is two games up in the loss column at 5.
18- DAL. Losers of two in a row and hosting LAC tonight. They currently have 30 losses with a host of teams around them in the standings. #13 (WAS) has 32 losses while #21 (ATL) has 28 losses. This pick has a pretty wide range right now.
23- BOS. 7-3 in their last 10, the team has hurt their pick but no one is complaining. Could pass MEM in the standings, but that's likely it, so 24 looks to be the worst this pick could end up. MIA, ATL and CHA are all right behind the C's, all within 2 games in the loss column. The C's have a tough 12 game stretch coming up, so we'll have to keep an eye on these 3 teams in the east.
31- PHI. 1st pick in the 2nd all but locked up.
35- MIN. Could improve one spot, but we don't want it to, as it would mean they've fallen below BKL in the standing. Not going any lower.
49- DAL. Could fluctuate, like their 1st rounder.
52- MIA. Could fluctuate a bit, with a lot of downside, but who knows.
58- CLE. Enough with the picks already.
4- BKL. Phoenix winning two in a row gives leaves them just one game ahead of BKL in the loss column. MINN is two games up in the loss column at 5.
18- DAL. Losers of two in a row and hosting LAC tonight. They currently have 30 losses with a host of teams around them in the standings. #13 (WAS) has 32 losses while #21 (ATL) has 28 losses. This pick has a pretty wide range right now.
23- BOS. 7-3 in their last 10, the team has hurt their pick but no one is complaining. Could pass MEM in the standings, but that's likely it, so 24 looks to be the worst this pick could end up. MIA, ATL and CHA are all right behind the C's, all within 2 games in the loss column. The C's have a tough 12 game stretch coming up, so we'll have to keep an eye on these 3 teams in the east.
31- PHI. 1st pick in the 2nd all but locked up.
35- MIN. Could improve one spot, but we don't want it to, as it would mean they've fallen below BKL in the standing. Not going any lower.
49- DAL. Could fluctuate, like their 1st rounder.
52- MIA. Could fluctuate a bit, with a lot of downside, but who knows.
58- CLE. Enough with the picks already.
My longtime binky Alex Len returned from the All Star Break and found the "ON" switch in his second full season. He's putting up 19/13 in his last 8 including 31/15 and 19/16 in their last two games both wins.
Had no idea Len was playing that well. Hopefully he keeps it up.
Things to watch tonight:
4- BKL. Plays @ TOR. A loss would put them just 0.5 games ahead of PHO in the standings and even in the loss column.
Unfortunately, MIN lost last night to CHA and host the Spurs tonight, so they aren't making things easy, now just 1.5 games ahead of BKL in the loss column.
18- DAL. Lost last night to LAC, putting them in a 3 team tie for the 16-18 spots with the Bulls and Blazers. POR hosts WSH tonight.
23- BOS. No change. MIA and MEM, closest teams around them, join the C's on a day off.
Things to watch tonight:
4- BKL. Plays @ TOR. A loss would put them just 0.5 games ahead of PHO in the standings and even in the loss column.
Unfortunately, MIN lost last night to CHA and host the Spurs tonight, so they aren't making things easy, now just 1.5 games ahead of BKL in the loss column.
18- DAL. Lost last night to LAC, putting them in a 3 team tie for the 16-18 spots with the Bulls and Blazers. POR hosts WSH tonight.
23- BOS. No change. MIA and MEM, closest teams around them, join the C's on a day off.
An alternative and underrated draft pick watch is the Clippers. For a reason I'm not aware of off the top of my head (let's just say "because Billy King"), the Clippers have the right two swap 2nd rounders with Brooklyn unless they finish with a top 5 record. LAC is currently in 6th behind Toronto by half a game. So if they stay 6th or worse, Brooklyn's highest draft pick at season's end will be in the 52-55 range instead of low-to-mid-30s. In fact, according to this beautiful resource it looks like they don't have any natural 2nd rounders through 2020 (they'll get ours next year if we exercise the 1st round swap rights). Of course, it isn't particularly difficult or unique for teams to acquire an abundance of 2nd rounders, but it's pretty funny to see how bare the cupboard currently is.
Nets were up by 16 at the half in Toronto but the Raptors took over in the 2nd half to win by 5. BKN .5 game better than the Suns now.
Phoenix at home later tonight vs. New York in a very winnable game. The only thing I don't like is it's their first home game back after a road trip and coming off 2 straight wins. We need the Suns to win games like this.
Also tonight:
C's at home vs Memphis. A win would move them ahead of the Griz by a half game in the overall standings.
Dallas (improved from pick #18 to 16 in a matter of a few days) is hosting what should be a tight game vs DET. Houston, 1.5 back of Dallas, plays @ PHI.
C's at home vs Memphis. A win would move them ahead of the Griz by a half game in the overall standings.
Dallas (improved from pick #18 to 16 in a matter of a few days) is hosting what should be a tight game vs DET. Houston, 1.5 back of Dallas, plays @ PHI.
Even barer is Miami's cupboard. The Heat have: traded their 2016 second-round pick to Boston; their 2017 second-round pick to either Atlanta or Memphis; their 2018 second-round pick to whichever of Atlanta or Memphis did not get the 2017 pick; their 2019 second-round pick to Minnesota; their 2020 second-round pick to Boston; and their 2021 second-round pick to Portland. Their only potential second-round picks are 2016 from Orlando (protected for positions 31-55, so it will revert to Orlando) and 2018 from New Orleans (protected again for positions 31-55). Plus, they have traded away three first round picks (2016 or 2017; 2018 or 2019; and 2020) and have no first-round picks coming in return.
Is there any restrictions on how far out a team can trade their draft picks? If Danny can't package a lot of the picks this year for something greater it will be very beneficial to give a second round pick or two to Miami or any team for a second round pick as far out as 2020 or even later. This many late picks isn't good for the team or the players we select with them. Just have to trust that Danny can package them for something more than what they are worth. It will be interesting, that is for sure.
Miami trading away all their first round picks was a big thorn in their side when Lebron, Bosh, & Wade were trying to win their 7 championships. Just one or two young players would have been great pieces for their championship runs.
Miami trading away all their first round picks was a big thorn in their side when Lebron, Bosh, & Wade were trying to win their 7 championships. Just one or two young players would have been great pieces for their championship runs.
Well since Boston already owns Miami's 2020 2nd round pick, I'm going to say no, there is no restriction.
Only restriction I'm aware of is you can't trade your 1st rounder 2 years in a row.
Edit- there were also some 2021 1st rounders already traded. I don't think you see a lot of trades that far out just because there is so much uncertainty around draft classes and where that pick might end up as rosters evolve.
Only restriction I'm aware of is you can't trade your 1st rounder 2 years in a row.
Edit- there were also some 2021 1st rounders already traded. I don't think you see a lot of trades that far out just because there is so much uncertainty around draft classes and where that pick might end up as rosters evolve.
Okafor is out for the year. A shame - if it had happened earlier, the Sixers might not be a lock to finish with the 1 seed.
MEM and UTA also win. POR is getting waxed by GS - other than that, a good night for the draft picks.
DAL and HOU tied for 7th/8th spot in West, with POR 0.5 GA and UTA 3 GB.
Remaining schedules:
POR (16) - DAL(x2), SAC(x2), OKC(x2), LAC, SA, GS, PHI, MIN, ORL, NO, BOS, MIA, DEN
HOU (17) - MIN(x2), OKC(x2), LAC, MEM, TOR, CLE, UTA, DAL, PHX, LAL, SAC, CHA, ATL, IND, CHI
DAL (17) - POR(x2), GS(x2), LAC, SA, CLE, MEM, HOU, UTA, SAC, MIN, DEN, IND, CHA, NYK, DET
UTA (17) - PHX(x2), MIN(x2), LAL(x2), SAC, DAL, HOU, SA, GS, LAC, OKC, CLE, DEN, MIL, CHI
Red is games vs. .600+ teams. Blue is games vs. .400- teams.
Dallas has arguably the hardest schedule of the four teams, with 6 games versus the .600+ teams and only two against the sub-.400 teams. Utah has 5 games against the .600+ teams but seven versus the sub-.400 teams. It's certainly possible for DAL to fall out of the playoffs. Note that the remaining DAL-UTA game would decide the tiebreaker between the two teams.
DAL and HOU tied for 7th/8th spot in West, with POR 0.5 GA and UTA 3 GB.
Remaining schedules:
POR (16) - DAL(x2), SAC(x2), OKC(x2), LAC, SA, GS, PHI, MIN, ORL, NO, BOS, MIA, DEN
HOU (17) - MIN(x2), OKC(x2), LAC, MEM, TOR, CLE, UTA, DAL, PHX, LAL, SAC, CHA, ATL, IND, CHI
DAL (17) - POR(x2), GS(x2), LAC, SA, CLE, MEM, HOU, UTA, SAC, MIN, DEN, IND, CHA, NYK, DET
UTA (17) - PHX(x2), MIN(x2), LAL(x2), SAC, DAL, HOU, SA, GS, LAC, OKC, CLE, DEN, MIL, CHI
Red is games vs. .600+ teams. Blue is games vs. .400- teams.
Dallas has arguably the hardest schedule of the four teams, with 6 games versus the .600+ teams and only two against the sub-.400 teams. Utah has 5 games against the .600+ teams but seven versus the sub-.400 teams. It's certainly possible for DAL to fall out of the playoffs. Note that the remaining DAL-UTA game would decide the tiebreaker between the two teams.
Top 15 prospects (ranked by two or more of ESPN.com, SI.com, nbadraft.net, draftexpress.com)
Ben Simmons (1, 1, 1, 1)
Brandon Ingram (2, 2, 2, 2)
Dragan Bender (3, 4, 4, 4)
Henry Ellenson (4, 15, 17, 8)
Jaylen Brown (5, 3, 3, 3)
Jamal Murray (6, 7, 7, 7)
Kris Dunn (7, 5, 5, 5)
Buddy Hield (9, 8, 6, 9)
Jakob Poeltl (10, 10, 8, 6)
Skal Labissiere (11, 9, 11, 10)
Furkan Korkmaz (13, 12, 21, 18)
Deyonta Davis (14, 11, 12, 13)
Ivan Rabb (15, 21, 10, 14)
Demetrious Jackson (19, 14, 31, 11)
Ranked top 15 by only one of the four:
Wade Baldwin (6, SI)
Marquese Chriss (8, ESPN)
Dejounte Murray (9, ND)
Diamond Stone (12, ESPN)
Timothe Luwawu (12, DE)
Denzel Valentine (13, SI)
Domantas Sabonas (13, ND)
Brice Johnson (14, ND)
Stephen Zimmerman (15, ND)
Damien Jones (15, DE)
Ben Simmons (1, 1, 1, 1)
Brandon Ingram (2, 2, 2, 2)
Dragan Bender (3, 4, 4, 4)
Henry Ellenson (4, 15, 17, 8)
Jaylen Brown (5, 3, 3, 3)
Jamal Murray (6, 7, 7, 7)
Kris Dunn (7, 5, 5, 5)
Buddy Hield (9, 8, 6, 9)
Jakob Poeltl (10, 10, 8, 6)
Skal Labissiere (11, 9, 11, 10)
Furkan Korkmaz (13, 12, 21, 18)
Deyonta Davis (14, 11, 12, 13)
Ivan Rabb (15, 21, 10, 14)
Demetrious Jackson (19, 14, 31, 11)
Ranked top 15 by only one of the four:
Wade Baldwin (6, SI)
Marquese Chriss (8, ESPN)
Dejounte Murray (9, ND)
Diamond Stone (12, ESPN)
Timothe Luwawu (12, DE)
Denzel Valentine (13, SI)
Domantas Sabonas (13, ND)
Brice Johnson (14, ND)
Stephen Zimmerman (15, ND)
Damien Jones (15, DE)
Boy there are gonna be a TON of Foreign guys drafted in the first round if Deyonta Davis and Rabb are considered lottery picks.
The nets losing that game bodes well for the Celtics. It was some day for the sixers, Okafor is out for the season with a torn meniscus. Grant hurt himself and sent Covington to hospital on a stretcher in a freak clash and the actually quite interesting 2nd round big Holmes was hurt too. They lost 3 of their better players in the game and the emotional hit of the Okafor news and STILL won
Well Okafor was out so that helped a lot. He's one of their best players long term, but they are much better without him on the floor this year.