Celebrating what is

RG33

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I love that Walker appears to turn and see AV and yell “dammit!”
I took it more as he was talking smack to him after running it back 65 yards and I had the reaction of “the kicker ran you down and tackled you from behind guy”.

Either way, what a great play — running him down was hard enough, but that tackle was absolute fundamental and timing perfection. I’m guessing Belichick may have shown that approximately 350 times in the film room the following week.
 

Preacher

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I took it more as he was talking smack to him after running it back 65 yards and I had the reaction of “the kicker ran you down and tackled you from behind guy”.

Either way, what a great play — running him down was hard enough, but that tackle was absolute fundamental and timing perfection. I’m guessing Belichick may have shown that approximately 350 times in the film room the following week.
Back in 1996, he was the Assistant Head Coach and Defensive Backs Coach. I can imagine him showing that clip to the DBs when someone missed a tackle saying something about how the place kicker can tackle better. Something akin to his Johnny Foxboro comments to Brady.
 

E5 Yaz

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Watching the AV clip, I hadn't remembered just how lousy a kickoff it was. He kicked from the 30 and Walker caught it at the 11
 

RG33

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Watching the AV clip, I hadn't remembered just how lousy a kickoff it was. He kicked from the 30 and Walker caught it at the 11
I’m comfortable saying that nobody remembered how good or bad the kickoff was. Don’t beat yourself up over it. Things will be better this year. . .
 

tims4wins

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Watching the AV clip, I hadn't remembered just how lousy a kickoff it was. He kicked from the 30 and Walker caught it at the 11
I’m comfortable saying that nobody remembered how good or bad the kickoff was. Don’t beat yourself up over it. Things will be better this year. . .
1) Kickoffs used to be from the 30 instead of the 35
2) Pretty sure it was unseasonably cold in Dallas for that (December?) game
3) AV never had a great leg, just a good leg. He probably kicked way more 40+ FGs in Indy than NE, by virtue of it being a dome, and in general the way kickers improved over the course of his career (somewhat akin to passing, actually)
 

tims4wins

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God we are so lucky. A single down year. Miami Cleveland Denver Pittsburgh and Baltimore are all going to be done playing after next weekend.
 

Dollar

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God we are so lucky. A single down year. Miami Cleveland Denver Pittsburgh and Baltimore are all going to be done playing after next weekend.
Not only that, but if my finagling of the Playoff Scenario tool is correct then the Pats still have a chance at the 1 seed. It would take a quasi-miracle (beating Miami, Jets over Bills, Texans over Titans, Broncos over Chiefs) but just the fact that it's still in play is crazy. What a season after the 2020 shitshow.

edit: I see this was covered in the Playoff Chase thread. Knew I should have looked there first!
 

Caspir

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The Patriots down year was also better than many team’s up years. These are franchises that haven’t played a meaningful football game in November, December or January in like a decade. I don’t think they’re a Super Bowl contender, but stranger things have happened and they’re in the tournament, so they’ve already overachieved based on my expectations coming into the year.
 

Cotillion

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The Patriots down year was also better than many team’s up years. These are franchises that haven’t played a meaningful football game in November, December or January in like a decade. I don’t think they’re a Super Bowl contender, but stranger things have happened and they’re in the tournament, so they’ve already overachieved based on my expectations coming into the year.
Playoffs was definitively one of my “nice to haves”. So this year is a rousing success. They also seem to have something viable at QB (hope he makes a 2nd year jump) which was my main want out of this season.
 

BigSoxFan

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Top 3 scoring teams in NFL:
1) Dallas
2) Tampa Bay
3) New England

Fewest PA in NFL:

1) New England
 

tims4wins

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Top 3 scoring teams in NFL:
1) Dallas
2) Tampa Bay
3) New England

Fewest PA in NFL:

1) New England
There are some errors in your list. The Pats are 8th in points.

Dallas 479
TB 470
Buffalo 456
KC 452
Cincy 444
LAC 442
Indy 440
Pats 438

Also, Buffalo is #2 in points allowed at 270, so they lead the Pats in point differential 177-168
 

BaseballJones

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2019 vs 2021

Points scored
2019: #7
2021: #8

Yards gained
2019: #15
2021: #16

Points allowed
2019: #1
2021: #1

Yards allowed
2019: #1
2021: #3

Point differential
2019: #2
2021: #2

Yards differential
2019: #4
2021: #9

Eerily similar. Except the 2019 team felt like the end of an era, and this team feels like the beginning of one.
 

wilked

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Feels a bit absurd that Titans will have that all important bye. Thems the shakes though…
 

BaseballJones

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Good for the Titans. They've dealt with some major issues this year and have persevered. Plus I like them a lot more than the Chiefs.
 

BigSoxFan

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There are some errors in your list. The Pats are 8th in points.

Dallas 479
TB 470
Buffalo 456
KC 452
Cincy 444
LAC 442
Indy 440
Pats 438

Also, Buffalo is #2 in points allowed at 270, so they lead the Pats in point differential 177-168
Ah, dammit. Didn’t realize that Yahoo had already updated for yesterday’s games. Either way, still pretty cool.
 

BigSoxFan

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There are some errors in your list. The Pats are 8th in points.

Dallas 479
TB 470
Buffalo 456
KC 452
Cincy 444
LAC 442
Indy 440
Pats 438

Also, Buffalo is #2 in points allowed at 270, so they lead the Pats in point differential 177-168
Ah, dammit. Didn’t realize that Yahoo had already updated for yesterday’s games. Either way, still pretty cool.
 

Ralphwiggum

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A couple of numbers to illustrate just how much better the Pats (and TB) have been compared with the#2 coach and QB during the last few years:

-If BB retired tomorrow Andy Reid would have to go 71-5 over his next 76 games to match BB’s winning percentage. To say nothing of being 5 Super Bowls short.

-If TB retired tomorrow Aaron Rodgers would have to go 104-5 over his next 109 games to match Brady’s winning percentage and of course is 6 Super Bowls short of Brady also.
 

DJnVa

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Article on Pats FA spending on how other teams may or may not copy that.

The Patriots pay: How Bill Belichick's spending spree succeeded and what it means for the league – The Athletic

“I’ve had multiple players reject the idea of playing for the Patriots over the years, even with Tom (at quarterback),” an agent said. “That’s because people have this misconception that it’s not fun to play for Bill. It’s an answer for individual players, except for one thing — whoever pays the most money 99 percent of the time gets the player. I don’t give a fuck if you’re Jacksonville, the Jets, the Dolphins or the Patriots. Give the guy the biggest contract, and he’s usually going to come to you.

“If you want to fuck around and come from a team where it’s a laissez-faire attitude, and they know they’re going to win six games then they’re going to fire the GM and head coach, then yeah, Bill Belichick is not your guy.”
 

tims4wins

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Archer1979

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21st Century Stats... New England has missed the playoffs three times in the 21st Century. With two of those misses being due to tie-breakers, there has been only one season (last year) where the Patriots have a played a game while not in playoff contention.

Meanwhile in Tampa Bay, Tom Brady has yet to play in a game in the 21st Century where his team was not in playoff contention.
 

tims4wins

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Saw a tweet that this is only the Pats 4th road playoff game in the last 15 years (13 @ Den, 15 @ Den, 18 @ KC). Which is amazing.

Funnier still is that the Dolphins have only played 2 playoff games during that span. The Bills are about to play their 6th, and the Jets have also played 6.
 

BaseballJones

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The Patriots in the playoffs under Belichick on the road:

Jan 27, 2002 - NE 24, Pit 17. The Pats' offense did very little in this game. Brady got hurt and Bledsoe played half the game, throwing for 102 yards and a TD. But it was the special teams that won the day for NE, getting a blocked FG for a TD and a 55 yard punt return for a TD.

Jan 23, 2005 - NE 41, Pit 27. NE opened the game with a bang, Brady connecting with Deion Branch for a huge game on the opening possession. The Pats went up 24-3 at the half before Pittsburgh started climbing back into the game. Sort of. The closest they got was 31-20 early in the fourth quarter, but the Pats scored 10 in a row to bury the Steelers.

Jan 14, 2006 - Den 27, NE 13. The famous Ben Watson play running down Champ Bailey. The Pats dominated the game in terms of yards gained (420-286). Brady threw for 341 yards. But the Pats had 5 turnovers. Yikes. The Pats also failed to convert on a 4th and 1 from the Den 36 on the Pats' second possession. Denver scored 10 points in the last 1:45 of the first half. Following a fumble by Kevin Faulk, Denver got a 39-yard DPI on Asante Samuel that set up a one-yard TD, and then on the ensuing kickoff, Ellis Hobbs fumbled the return, allowing Denver to kick a FG. Still down just 17-6 with the ball on the Bronco 5 yard line, Brady threw an ill-advised pick to Bailey, who returned it to the NE 1. That was a bad call by the refs because Watson punched it out of the end zone, which should have been a Patriots' touchback, but the refs (wrongly) called it out at the 1 yard line. Denver's ensuing TD sealed the game.

Jan 14, 2007 - NE 24, SD 21. The Chargers led most of this game before the Pats made a big fourth quarter comeback, scoring 11 straight points to end the game. Brady had 3 interceptions, but they turned SD over 4 times, including a key one after SD had intercepted NE and the returner lost the football, allowing NE to get the ball right back.

Jan 21, 2007 - Ind 38, NE 34. The game where the Pats came in with a massive flu epidemic, and the Colts cranked up the heat in the dome. Pats still led 21-3 before Indy got what turned out to be a key field goal just at the end of the first half to make it 21-6 and feel more like a game and less like a blowout. Indy came storming back in the second half as it was clear the Pats were gassed. Still, NE held a 34-31 lead late in the fourth before Peyton led them on the game-winning TD drive.

Jan 19, 2014 - Den 26, NE 16. This was a really really good Bronco team with a record setting offense. They basically manhandled the Patriots the whole game, dominating in points, yards, and time of possession. They did everything better than the Patriots that day, and it's actually kind of surprising that the final score was as close as it was.

Jan 24, 2016 - Den 20, NE 18. The Pats were all kinds of beat up going into this game. Brady got absolutely crushed all game long. The Pats blew HFA by blowing a game against (who else) Miami. The Pats dominated most of the game, but made some key mistakes along the way. A key Brady interception. Jamie Collins' two blown coverages on Owen Daniels. Going for a 4th and 1 and failing midway through the fourth quarter from the Denver 16. Going for a 4th and 6 and failing late in the fourth quarter from the Denver 14. Almost a miracle comeback but it fell two points short.

Jan 20, 2019 - NE 37, KC 31. Incredible game. The Pats got up big early, and had a chance for more but a Brady INT in KC's end zone stifled one drive. Still, the Pats were up 14-0 at the half against a high powered KC offense. The Chiefs made a huge comeback and sent the game into OT, but the Pats marched down the field in OT, converting three third downs along the way, for the winning score. NE dominated the stats, 524 yards to 290, 36 first downs to 18, and 43:59 TOP to 20:53. Maybe the most impressive playoff performance in the BB/TB era.

So by my count, NE is 4-4 on the road in the playoffs under Belichick. Six of the eight were in the conference championship game.

Total score in those 8 games: NE 207, Opp 207 (25.9 to 25.9)
 

Al Zarilla

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Saw a tweet that this is only the Pats 4th road playoff game in the last 15 years (13 @ Den, 15 @ Den, 18 @ KC). Which is amazing.

Funnier still is that the Dolphins have only played 2 playoff games during that span. The Bills are about to play their 6th, and the Jets have also played 6.
The Jets have been in 6? Were they playing under a different name, or does it include the Namath teams? :)
 

Deathofthebambino

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Saw a tweet that this is only the Pats 4th road playoff game in the last 15 years (13 @ Den, 15 @ Den, 18 @ KC). Which is amazing.

Funnier still is that the Dolphins have only played 2 playoff games during that span. The Bills are about to play their 6th, and the Jets have also played 6.
This is Derek Carr's first start in the NFL playoffs (he was hurt one time the Raiders made it and Connor Cook played). I found that remarkable.
 

BuellMiller

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Mar 25, 2015
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The Patriots in the playoffs under Belichick on the road:

Jan 23, 2005 - NE 41, Pit 27. NE opened the game with a bang, Brady connecting with Deion Branch for a huge game on the opening possession. The Pats went up 24-3 at the half before Pittsburgh started climbing back into the game. Sort of. The closest they got was 31-20** early in the fourth quarter, but the Pats scored 10 in a row to bury the Steelers.

Jan 14, 2006 - Den 27, NE 13. The famous Ben Watson play running down Champ Bailey. The Pats dominated the game in terms of yards gained (420-286). Brady threw for 341 yards. But the Pats had 5 turnovers. Yikes. The Pats also failed to convert on a 4th and 1 from the Den 36 on the Pats' second possession. Denver scored 10 points in the last 1:45 of the first half. Following a fumble by Kevin Faulk, Denver got a 39-yard DPI on Asante Samuel that set up a one-yard TD***, and then on the ensuing kickoff, Ellis Hobbs fumbled the return, allowing Denver to kick a FG. Still down just 17-6 with the ball on the Bronco 5 yard line, Brady threw an ill-advised pick to Bailey, who returned it to the NE 1. That was a bad call by the refs because Watson punched it out of the end zone, which should have been a Patriots' touchback, but the refs (wrongly) called it out at the 1 yard line. Denver's ensuing TD sealed the game.


Jan 19, 2014 - Den 26, NE 16. This was a really really good Bronco team with a record setting offense. They basically manhandled the Patriots the whole game****, dominating in points, yards, and time of possession. They did everything better than the Patriots that day, and it's actually kind of surprising that the final score was as close as it was.
A few notes:
**: I remember being a little scared of the Steelers coming back, until they kicked a FG to make it 31-20 when they had it 4th and goal down by 14 in the 4th quarter.
***: That DPI on Samuel was by far the most egregious call in that game (even considering the Watson play). When even Phil Simms was like "That was not PI" you know it was bad.
****: It was just one drive, and they did make it into the Patriots side of the field, but the first Broncos drive where Talib was healthy (before his run in with Welker in the 2nd drive, I believe), they did force the Broncos to punt. Of course, that was the only time all game that a Broncos drive didn't end in points or kneeldown.
 

BaseballJones

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If these teams make the Super Bowl, here's how many appearances they'll have:

SF: 8
KC: 5
LA: 5
Cin: 3

Meanwhile, the Patriots have been to the Super Bowl *ELEVEN* times. Three more than any other franchise. That's just...ridiculous.
 

BaseballJones

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Mahomes vs Brady, first four years as a starter (both basically sat their true rookie season):

Mahomes
- 1528-2310 (66.1%), 18,707 yds, 8.1 y/a, 151 td, 36 int, 106.1 rating
- 49-13 (.790) regular season record
- 8-3 (.727) playoff record
- 2 AFC championships
- 1 Super Bowl championship
- 1 MVP
- 1 SB MVP
- 4x pro bowl
- 1x all pro
- 74 AV

Brady
- 1242-2015 (61.6%), 13,919 yds, 6.9 y/a, 97 td, 52 int, 87.5 rating
- 48-14 (.774) regular season record
- 9-0 (1.000) playoff record
- 3 AFC championships
- 3 Super Bowl championships
- 2 Super Bowl MVP
- 2x pro bowl
- 52 AV

Mahomes has the better individual stats and accomplishments. Of course, the rules to heavily favor the passing game changed after Brady's first four years, so it's difficult to measure one set of stats against the other. That said, I'm ok with saying that Mahomes individually has been better his first four years than Brady was during his first four years. The playoff record is what sticks out though. Mahomes' is really good. Brady's was off the charts.
 

Hendu for Kutch

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Mahomes vs Brady, first four years as a starter (both basically sat their true rookie season):

Mahomes
- 1528-2310 (66.1%), 18,707 yds, 8.1 y/a, 151 td, 36 int, 106.1 rating
- 49-13 (.790) regular season record
- 8-3 (.727) playoff record
- 2 AFC championships
- 1 Super Bowl championship
- 1 MVP
- 1 SB MVP
- 4x pro bowl
- 1x all pro
- 74 AV

Brady
- 1242-2015 (61.6%), 13,919 yds, 6.9 y/a, 97 td, 52 int, 87.5 rating
- 48-14 (.774) regular season record
- 9-0 (1.000) playoff record
- 3 AFC championships
- 3 Super Bowl championships
- 2 Super Bowl MVP
- 2x pro bowl
- 52 AV

Mahomes has the better individual stats and accomplishments. Of course, the rules to heavily favor the passing game changed after Brady's first four years, so it's difficult to measure one set of stats against the other. That said, I'm ok with saying that Mahomes individually has been better his first four years than Brady was during his first four years. The playoff record is what sticks out though. Mahomes' is really good. Brady's was off the charts.
Their starting circumstances were also very different. Mahomes took over a team that had already been in the playoffs 3 straight years and has had 2 All-Pro weapons the whole time. Brady took over a 5-11 team and had very mediocre skill position players, albeit with better defenses.

Mahomes is great, but he definitely had the runway paved for him with that setup and it was easy to see that if he was good the Chiefs were going to be very good. What Brady and the Patriots did was shocking, they were voted least likely to make the playoffs in the next 5 seasons by league executives going into 2001.
 

BaseballJones

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One reason why it's so hard to build (and maintain) a dynasty in the NFL. Using statistical production and cost to the team (according to Spotrac's "Earnings" category, which I think means cap hit?):

Patrick Mahomes

2018, age 23 ($1.2m) - 383-580 (66.0%), 5097 yds, 50 td, 12 int, 113.8 rating, 22 AV
2019, age 24 ($1.9m) - 319-484 (65.9%), 4031 yds, 26 td, 5 int, 105.3 rating, 17 AV
2020, age 25 ($10.9m) - 390-588 (66.3%), 4740 yds, 38 td, 6 int, 108.2 rating, 17 AV
2021, age 26 ($22.8m) - 436-658 (66.3%), 4839 yds, 37 td, 13 int, 98.5 rating, 18 AV
2022, age 27 ($29.5m)
2023, age 28 ($40.5m)
2024, age 29 ($38.0m)
2025, age 30 ($42.0m)
2026, age 31 ($42.0m)
2027, age 32 ($60.0m)

So he's been terrific, obviously, for his whole career. But he produced at a RIDICULOUS level in 2018, while only making $1.2 million. This year he was still fantastic, but his production sure didn't *improve* from what it was in 2018. In fact, it decreased. Considerably. Yet he was making 17x what he made in 2018. Even if his production goes back up (which it might - he's awesome), he'll be taking up an ever-increasing amount of cap space for the Chiefs. That'll make it harder and harder for the team to put good pieces around him. Even if they restructure his contract, unless he pulls a Brady and takes way less than he could, he'll still be making way more money for the production he gives them.

This isn't to say they can't win another Super Bowl with him. Who knows. They might win multiple. But it just goes to show how hard it is to build and maintain a dynasty - the most important player (QB) begins to take on a ridiculous amount of cap space.
 

snowmanny

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Their starting circumstances were also very different. Mahomes took over a team that had already been in the playoffs 3 straight years and has had 2 All-Pro weapons the whole time. Brady took over a 5-11 team and had very mediocre skill position players, albeit with better defenses.

Mahomes is great, but he definitely had the runway paved for him with that setup and it was easy to see that if he was good the Chiefs were going to be very good. What Brady and the Patriots did was shocking, they were voted least likely to make the playoffs in the next 5 seasons by league executives going into 2001.
5-11 and 0-2 with their biggest weapon on offense available for one game the rest of the way.
 

Helmet Head

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I am currently watching the KC AFC Championship game. Hogan’s 3rd and 8 catch in the 4th quarter doesn’t get enough credit. Down 21-17 and he had no business making that catch. Completely ridiculous.
 

jmcc5400

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Terrible pick at the end of the half. 2 Flacco specials (Browner interference was legit; not sure about Revis). Now 14 down. Not looking good.