Fascinating. I forgot about that one.
Pickings are mighty slim in that category, though. I don't think that package is enough to get someone like Jarred Vanderbilt or P.J. Washington, so you're looking at guys like Nunn.
Cavalry Candidates
- Thread starter bakahump
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Pickings are mighty slim in that category, though. I don't think that package is enough to get someone like Jarred Vanderbilt or P.J. Washington, so you're looking at guys like Nunn.
Hamidou Diallo is an option, Korkmaz, Garrison Mathews, Kenrich Williams, Jalen McDaniels, Nickeal Alexander-Walker,
I like Kenrich Williams as a Grant supplement/possibly cheaper replacement but not a whole lot of those other guys.
As far as predicting Jaylen’s future, let’s not link it to Wall…. It’s been an open secret Wall’s knees are trashed and have been for a long time. As far as I know, Jaylen has had no such issues.
As far as Jaylen and the SuperMax, I agree 5/290 sounds steep. I get that he may not be open to a discount since his current contract is below market, but the Celtics don’t have to bid against themselves either.
What’s the best he can get on the open market? 4/much less than 290 right? Would he reject that same deal from Boston just because they’re theoretically able to offer more?
In general I’m in the “In Brad We Trust” camp. I think he has a better feel for how the Jaylen thing will play out and any below the surface issues that might exist.
I’m totally fine with the status quo, but if Brad wants to trade Jaylen for KD….LFG.
The weird thing about this is that Wall was extremely durable without any long-term knee issues until he signed his contract……while it was Jaylen who has missed time with knee tendinitis a couple times in his early 20’s that Ainge admittedly was concerned about iirc.
I think it's an ego/image thing. The conventional wisdom is that the top 10 (or whatever) players are underpaid with a max or supermax. I'm sure on a night like Friday when Tatum was getting MVP chants at the line while shooting 3/15, he says to himself, "no effing way I'm taking a dollar less than the max."
The words “Max” and “SuperMax” have clout, add street cred, add brand cred, and basically places them at the apex of the elite. These things matter….especially to kids in their 20’s who have dreamed about being in this class.
I can’t keep track of what was publicly available at the time and what I’ve heard through the grapevine that long ago… but he’s had long term knee issues.
Quick google search shows he was shut down at the end of 2016 with knee issues and had surgery on both knees May 2016 to remove loose bodies. Before signing his max contract.
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I agree, but only the Celtics can offer the “SuperMax”, right?
Would he choose to leave for another team‘s Max offer over the Celtics offering the same? Or something more than Max but less than SuperMax?
Maybe he would leave on principle, I don’t know. Seems like something Jaylen might do actually…
SuperMax is so much cake that nobody leaves it on the table. I mean, you can, I suppose, but we're not talking +5% or something.
If JB qualifies for that, the Cs will offer it, and he'll almost certainly take it. As it should be. And that has nothing to do with whether Durant is available or not. Hell, even Westbrook and Wall have been traded on their "albatross" deals. This isn't the Luol Deng days.
I might not have been too clear but what happens if Brad says, we love you Jaylen but we don’t want to bid against ourselves and can’t afford to pay you 58M per year.
Here is your “Max contract” offer that’s as much as any other team is allowed to bid. 4 years and X million (someone here knows I’m sure
)If Brad thinks SuperMax is really the only option (maybe it is) to keep Jaylen, I can understand it being a tough call.
https://www.spotrac.com/news/next-contract-series-jaylen-brown-1572/
If he doesn't make All-NBA or they refuse to offer it to him then the options are:
Re-sign at 5/249 with BOS
Sign anywhere at 4/185
First 4 years of the BOS deal is 192M so... if he thinks he can get another max deal the difference is pretty minimal.
Supermax first 4 years are 225, so a huge difference, plus the gap on where you start your next deal is huge too.
If Jaylen is eligible for Supermax he'll sign it (then maybe ask for a trade if he's unhappy), if he's not, then the Celtics don't have a particularly big advantage keeping him. The double-edged sword of the Supermax for fringe guys, same as Beal and a few others.
I'd also guess that if Jaylen is eligible for the Supermax and the Celtics don't offer it he'll be insulted and more likely to leave.
Honestly best possible thing for BOS would be Jaylen not making All-NBA this year.
I don't think the Brooklyn Nets trade Durant for the simple reason they just traded Kyrie. Never heard of a NBA team trading 2 of their major stars in a week. I guess we will find out on February 9th.
This is what I’m getting at… and certainly see the double edged nature of the super max unless a No Doubt top 5-10 player.
I assume Brad would have a sense if it would insult Jaylen and be a deal breaker.
If someone offered me a ton of money to stay at my current job (more than anyone else could offer) I doubt I’d leave because they theoretically could still offer more… but can see how things are different in the NBA.
But what if a bunch of other people were offerring you a similar ton of money, and saying "we want you to be our #1 guy, instead of #2"?
That's a part of it, a lot of guys would feel like those teams wanted them more.
True. It's also a lot easier to be "principled" when the lower offer is still 185M
Oh definitely not imo. The question for me isn’t if Jaylen will take the max here (only a fool wouldn’t) but whether Wyc will want to offer it to him. Let’s be clear though…..Wyc has ALWAYS had the final say on these matters. It is HIS call and not Brad’s. I’m guilty myself of pointing toward Brad as the defacto decision maker and while he may or may not want to pay Jaylen……if he does, it has to be signed off on by Wyc. Personally I don’t think either may feel comfortable with that contract. If that’s the case then I see Jaylen absolutely going somewhere else for less where he is feeling wanted.
I think we all agree Jaylen will stay if the Celtics can offer a Super Max and do offer a Super Max. Seems pretty obvious.
If the Celtics can offer the Super Max, don't make that offer, but still offer as much as any other team can offer (or more...but not up to Super Max level)...Jaylen will leave? I suppose if they think he will be insulted and leave for less money elsewhere, then a trade should be very much on the table.
My general take is unless you can get KD, you just wait it out with Jaylen, try to win this year with him, see if he's even eligible for the supermax, and if he is, then you start looking at whether to offer it or trade him, or neither.
KD almost certainly isn’t going anywhere so I agree with this. There is no reason for the Celtics to mess with a potential title team unless it’s for the KD opportunity.
For sure, I don't think anyone is interested in trading him for a lateral move right now.
A lot is probably riding on this playoff run though. A potential Max/Super Max for Jaylen looks different coming off a title vs a disappointing early exit/step backwards.
Celtics trade intel two days from the deadline
Durant:
Durant:
Some info on Grant, White, Pritchard, the TPE, and the buyout market as well.
Expecting just a BIG buyout signing
Wouldn't be shocked to see both PP & Grant traded. Especially if GW is grumbling to Brad about being a starter/RFA $$$. Ageless Al will potentially be the starting 4 for the next 2 seasons.
I can't imagine Grant is keeping his self-worth opinions to himself. Batman is hitting that hotline to PBS monthly.
Gallo/Grant/PP + 2nds? Begarin?
works for
Olynyk/Vanderbilt or
Plumlee/PJ
Both those deals would shore up Boston's frontcourt.
I do view Grant's RFA matching option as good value teamwise.
I love Grant. Love.
I know it was only one game, but he was a dog last night. Didn't hustle for anything. Has put up some stinkers in the last month or so. Hope he isn't in his own head too much.
I know it was only one game, but he was a dog last night. Didn't hustle for anything. Has put up some stinkers in the last month or so. Hope he isn't in his own head too much.
Yep, agreed on all counts. He hasn't been getting back in transition on D. It's embarrassing, he has failed on that front a few times over the last month.
Tatum has also been guilty on a few occasions.
Tatum is understandable due to his workload and big minutes. Grant...not so much.
But this is a unique situation. Those two love birds thought they were building a Super Team™ together. Durant might not be very happy now and/or in the future.
Frustrating with Grant in particular because so much of his game is built on being a hustle/glue guy. He acts sometimes like since he's added the occasional dribble-drive to his game, he doesn't have to do the little things.
I mean I'm sure he'll get his head straightened out when he realizes what he'll be getting paid for, but in the interim, it's been annoying.
Was it Grant getting in his own head too much or are we simply in the dog days of the season where guys find it hard to play hard in February against teams like Detroit?
Exactly. There were consecutive plays last night where sloth on the defensive end led to buckets, and I complained about his effort. My son was over and said "if Grant isn't hustling, what is he?". A hustling, switchable Grant who bangs 3s, drives closeouts, takes abuse with his body, and does the little things--that's a valuable guy. Grant who goes through the motions on one end and hot dogs on the other end, that's a deep bench guy. One of them gets 60M, one gets MLE.
Good point. Struck me only because he's usually a motor guy, but hell he could have foot pain or be battling a slow sinus thing or whatever.
If it was one game that might be true but he has been pretty bad for about 3 weeks now. I think he will bounce back but it is getting a little concerning.
Its this imo. And some folks are keying on his counting stats which are likely to suffer given the roster depth.
Maybe I am just too easy, or alternatively, maybe people are looking for reasons to complain about the team with the best record in the league.
However Grant is having a very good season statistically (63% TS!) and has been pretty efficient, save for an odd game here and there, even of late. If he had continued cooling off after December that might be cause for concern but he was decent stats-wise in January including towards the end of the month.
Given his role, I think he gets paid in the area he is expecting but maybe he is costing himself with a mini midseason swoon and his critics are right.
As a side note, I would not want a SoSH powered AI making contract decisions on free agents for the teams we follow. We would almost certainly miss out on almost all players for fear of making a dreaded overpay. We are almost never correct on our collective estimates and we skew low structurally. No data supports this view.
18 months in and Brad/Zarren have been on point with every signing, extension, & trade.
Expecting them to start overpaying for the 8th man in the rotation with RFA approaching doesn't seem like something they will engage in. I'm sure they have the data to back this up.
Expecting them to start overpaying for the 8th man in the rotation with RFA approaching doesn't seem like something they will engage in. I'm sure they have the data to back this up.
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When we here are able to accurately define value such that "overpay" and "underpay" actually mean something definitive, it will be the first time. We collectively suck at making and understanding markets.
I disagree. On the whole, SoSH is more informed than 99% of the sports media outlets out there. YMMV
From that article
But others say the Celtics are in no rush to move the third-year guard. One source close to the situation said, “He’s the best pure shooter on the roster. That has real value. Plus, how many games are you winning if other guards are hurt and all you have is Derrick (White)? Nothing against Derrick, but he’s not a 48-minute guard.
You aren't likely winning if both Brogdon and Smart go down. I wouldn't not trade Pritchard because of this unlikely scenario
I think this is right and as it looks increasingly unlikely KD becomes available, I think you do your relationship management with Jaylen too, find out where his head is at for the next steps.
I've read a bunch of articles about the Celtics and the nearing trade deadline, and what might happen. About the likeliest scenario I can see is that Brad really wants to use that TPE, and makes something happen related to that. If it's the right deal, he would consider tossing in Pritchard, or Williams, or even both. I think that's all we're going to see. I think right now Brad is thinking of small improvements he can make, to gird the Celts for the home stretch. A springy big man would be No. 1 on my list.
Wall was the exact opposite of extremely durable prior to signing the supermax. He’d already missed large portions of three or four seasons by then including the two years prior to the extension. A lot of us argued that the Wiz had catapulted past insanity into unsanity with that deal. Time proved that we were right.
Wall signed his extension in July of 2017, before the 2017-18 season. He had played 82, 78, 77, 79 regular season games in the 4 preceding years plus all 31 of his team's playoff games.
That's about as consistent and durable as you can get.
Edit- also it was mentioned that Wall was on a mediocre team... not really, they were the 4 seed, won a series and took the #1 seed to 7 games in the next round, they had almost their whole rotation age 27 or younger, they looked like a team on the rise. Wall got hurt the season after he agreed to the extension, and was a shell of himself before it even kicked in.
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Wall’s first knee injury happened while he was on his rookie deal and after his first extension he had surgery on both knees to clean out bone debris and calcium deposits. For players completely reliant on their athleticism, like Wall was, the knee problems were a huge flashing warning sign. Which is why many of us said that the Wiz were completely unsane to extend him.
Here are some specifics: https://www.nbcsports.com/washington/wizards/timeline-john-walls-injury-history-washington-wizards
- Sept. 28, 2012 – Diagnosed with a non-traumatic stress injury in his left knee during pre-season. Missed the first 33 games of the season – Wizards were 5-28 during that stretch.
- May 3, 2015 – Injures left wrist and hand in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Semi-finals against the Atlanta Hawks. He had five non-displaced fractures in his left wrist/hand, missed three games in the series.
- Dec. 6, 2015 – Banged his right knee in a game against the Dallas Mavericks. X-rays were negative, but Wall revealed that he was dealing with a bruise on the same knee prior to the injury. Did not miss any direct time.
- Apr. 6, 2016 – Wall listed as questionable with a sore right knee. Missed two games before being shut down with the team out of post-season contention. In total, he missed five games.
- May 5, 2016 – Undergoes a procedure on both of his knees. His left was to ‘excise calcific deposits’ to ease the pain and his right was to remove ‘loose bodies.’
- July 2017: Wall agrees to extension
- Nov. 16, 2017 –MRI after left knee discomfort. He received PRP (platelet-rich plasma) injections to reduce inflammation and missed nine games from Nov. 23 to Dec. 13.
- Jan. 30, 2018 – Consulted with knee specialist and will have a procedure on his left knee to ‘cleanup’ the area and ease pain. Expected to miss six to eight weeks after already missing a game.
- Feb. 5, 2019 - Wizards to announce that Wall will have surgery to repair a ruptured Achilles tendon.
Bills not dumb. He is pretty much free rolling this one. Oh wow sources hearing things on deadline day? No way! If the Celtics add anyone he can take credit, if Russ is moved he can take credit, etc. All reward with no risk…..well done marketing right here!
Simmons is enjoying the Robert California phase of his career, and nobody seems to mind.
This. I don't think he's doing anything with some kind of "told you so agenda." I think he's mocking the people who actually do that.
Is Simmons even that tied into the league anymore? It feels like his contacts and pals are now more in his line of work - content creation - than playing, coaching or front office roles. That likely means he still has better color than us ham and eggers however maybe he isn't as connected as he was a few years ago.
I know he’s tight with Grande as far as the Celtics are concerned.