My take on the current rotation is as follows:
Buchholz - Looking far better than he did at any point last year. One bat instance against the Yankees aside, I have to believe that if this is what he looks like early he's only going to improve from here assuming he stays healthy. In that case he's a legitimate front line starter.
Porcello - Victim of an insanely bad bit of HR/FB luck that I expect to normalize. Best K/9 of his career so far, but the BB/9 is up too. Maybe nibbling a bit too much for those K's and as a result isn't pounding the low zone like he should. His GB% is down too, could also be stemming from this. The tools are there, his BABIP isn't freakish, he's just been terrifically unlucky on the long ball and has maybe gotten away from his game a bit too much in the wake of a big contract looking to be that strikeout guy. His LOB% is also well below career norms and league average. If both of those normalize he's a mid-3's ERA guy like we thought, simple as that. Solid #2. If they normalize, he fixes the BB/9, but keeps the K/9 he might just move into the borderline #1/#2 category by end of season. Worst case I'm expecting a high 3's ERA/solid #3 guy production.
Masterson - Had more good starts than the rest of the group other than Clay so far, but it really seems like he's doing it with pretty meh stuff. His HR/9 and HR/FB% are low, but then he's always been on the lower end and managed comparable rates for over 200 innings in 2011. If he can reduce the walks and his LOB% gets back to normal he could definitely still be a solid mid to back of the rotation starter. His velocity has ticked up in the last two starts per Pitchf/x as well, a continuation of that as he works back from the likely physical ailments of last year and in warmer weather could see some marked improvements.
Miley - Jekyll and Hyde act. Great start, horrible start, solid start, horrible start. Against the Yankees he looked like an ace. Against Washington he was throwing meatballs. Against Tampa a little walk happy and inconsistent but getting guys out and was effective into the sixth inning of a pitching battle. Then against Baltimore he blows up again. His career game logs suggest that he's a bit prone to outings like this, but not on an 'every other' ratio (he had three comparable stinkers in May of 2013 for example). I'd like to think that Farrell and Nieves can develop consistency from him, but if not it'll be hold on to your butts time every start.
Kelly - Most impressive starter so far to me. Has taken a clear step forward as a pitcher from last season. Electric stuff, still learning to command it. If Buchholz and Porcello settle into the steady front end guys making Kelly the #3 guy who needs help avoiding the occasional crooked number I would be quite happy with that. I have more patience for Kelly's struggles than any of the rest because he's at least shown real growth in many aspects of his game, he's just still struggling to keep everything in sync to avoid those bad innings.
It's only four starts but I'm cautiously optimistic that all of these guys have shown plenty to build on. You take the bad luck out of the equation and they obviously look much better as a group. I'm left with the concern that the bad luck isn't entirely "luck" though and that those low LOB% numbers stem from a real lack of middle relief hanging these guys out to dry when they do stumble in the 5th/6th/7th innings. Ogando looks like he's finding himself but the rest of that middle lot leaves me pretty worried and I'm not very confident that Koji is going to be 2013-2014 Koji this year. Really hoping that Barnes really nails down a bullpen spot real soon, hopefully at the expense of Mujica who is consistent in that he looks good enough between his blown saves to trick you into giving him another chance to blow a save, only to watch him blow it again.
If he offense heats up into the summer I think this staff will find stability to the point where they can win a lot of games with 5-7 runs scored and 3-5 runs given up. So I think they'll be real competitive. I don't think they'll survive this current rotation come playoff hunt time or into the playoffs unless a couple of these guys find real consistency. Even then I'm unsure if the ceilings of a lot of these guys is enough to go toe to toe with front line opposition in the playoffs. Buchholz and Kelly on their best days sure can, but they would need to be the two who find consistency for that.
In short, do they need a front line starter/ace on this staff? Not to compete for the division and make the playoffs, no. To win a World Series? I think they do. He might be on the team currently, waiting to pull open the shirt and reveal that big red 'S' on his chest, but if so he needs to find a phone booth and show up any time now.
Buchholz - Looking far better than he did at any point last year. One bat instance against the Yankees aside, I have to believe that if this is what he looks like early he's only going to improve from here assuming he stays healthy. In that case he's a legitimate front line starter.
Porcello - Victim of an insanely bad bit of HR/FB luck that I expect to normalize. Best K/9 of his career so far, but the BB/9 is up too. Maybe nibbling a bit too much for those K's and as a result isn't pounding the low zone like he should. His GB% is down too, could also be stemming from this. The tools are there, his BABIP isn't freakish, he's just been terrifically unlucky on the long ball and has maybe gotten away from his game a bit too much in the wake of a big contract looking to be that strikeout guy. His LOB% is also well below career norms and league average. If both of those normalize he's a mid-3's ERA guy like we thought, simple as that. Solid #2. If they normalize, he fixes the BB/9, but keeps the K/9 he might just move into the borderline #1/#2 category by end of season. Worst case I'm expecting a high 3's ERA/solid #3 guy production.
Masterson - Had more good starts than the rest of the group other than Clay so far, but it really seems like he's doing it with pretty meh stuff. His HR/9 and HR/FB% are low, but then he's always been on the lower end and managed comparable rates for over 200 innings in 2011. If he can reduce the walks and his LOB% gets back to normal he could definitely still be a solid mid to back of the rotation starter. His velocity has ticked up in the last two starts per Pitchf/x as well, a continuation of that as he works back from the likely physical ailments of last year and in warmer weather could see some marked improvements.
Miley - Jekyll and Hyde act. Great start, horrible start, solid start, horrible start. Against the Yankees he looked like an ace. Against Washington he was throwing meatballs. Against Tampa a little walk happy and inconsistent but getting guys out and was effective into the sixth inning of a pitching battle. Then against Baltimore he blows up again. His career game logs suggest that he's a bit prone to outings like this, but not on an 'every other' ratio (he had three comparable stinkers in May of 2013 for example). I'd like to think that Farrell and Nieves can develop consistency from him, but if not it'll be hold on to your butts time every start.
Kelly - Most impressive starter so far to me. Has taken a clear step forward as a pitcher from last season. Electric stuff, still learning to command it. If Buchholz and Porcello settle into the steady front end guys making Kelly the #3 guy who needs help avoiding the occasional crooked number I would be quite happy with that. I have more patience for Kelly's struggles than any of the rest because he's at least shown real growth in many aspects of his game, he's just still struggling to keep everything in sync to avoid those bad innings.
It's only four starts but I'm cautiously optimistic that all of these guys have shown plenty to build on. You take the bad luck out of the equation and they obviously look much better as a group. I'm left with the concern that the bad luck isn't entirely "luck" though and that those low LOB% numbers stem from a real lack of middle relief hanging these guys out to dry when they do stumble in the 5th/6th/7th innings. Ogando looks like he's finding himself but the rest of that middle lot leaves me pretty worried and I'm not very confident that Koji is going to be 2013-2014 Koji this year. Really hoping that Barnes really nails down a bullpen spot real soon, hopefully at the expense of Mujica who is consistent in that he looks good enough between his blown saves to trick you into giving him another chance to blow a save, only to watch him blow it again.
If he offense heats up into the summer I think this staff will find stability to the point where they can win a lot of games with 5-7 runs scored and 3-5 runs given up. So I think they'll be real competitive. I don't think they'll survive this current rotation come playoff hunt time or into the playoffs unless a couple of these guys find real consistency. Even then I'm unsure if the ceilings of a lot of these guys is enough to go toe to toe with front line opposition in the playoffs. Buchholz and Kelly on their best days sure can, but they would need to be the two who find consistency for that.
In short, do they need a front line starter/ace on this staff? Not to compete for the division and make the playoffs, no. To win a World Series? I think they do. He might be on the team currently, waiting to pull open the shirt and reveal that big red 'S' on his chest, but if so he needs to find a phone booth and show up any time now.