Buchholz Traded To Philly For 2B/DH Josh Tobias

koufax37

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The frustrating inconsistency of Clay can be put in the past with no hard feelings, and I root for him to flourish in Philadelphia. It would have been cool if we got Anderson Espinoza in return instead, but that's not how the world works. With Espinoza already gone, Drew P was a better bet than Clay B for the season, keeping everybody didn't really work, and given roster construction with or without him, there is little reason to think that Clay would have been worth $13m to us this season in value over other guys ready to take the ball.

So the trade by itself makes sense if you feel reasonably confident in Pomeranz and Wright, which I do, and you don't have a better trade lined up for one of them if you think Clay would be at a similar level. We clearly solidified the lefty heaviness of the rotation, depending on where Wright and Pomeranz fall, and that is a little concerning when facing unbalanced lineups like the 2016 Blue Jays in a short series. But I think better pitching trumps handedness, and "balance" is more important in a lineup than in a rotation.
 

JimD

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2011 will always be the great 'what if' in Buchholz's Sox career for me. He signed the contract extension that spring and pitched solidly before eventually landing on the DL, having made only 14 starts. The Red Sox would be a very different team today if Clay, at what should have been the peak of his career, could have been relied upon to pitch another 15 games that season.
 

Rovin Romine

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2011 will always be the great 'what if' in Buchholz's Sox career for me. He signed the contract extension that spring and pitched solidly before eventually landing on the DL, having made only 14 starts. The Red Sox would be a very different team today if Clay, at what should have been the peak of his career, could have been relied upon to pitch another 15 games that season.
Yeah. I always think of 2001 - if Nomar Garciaparra "could have been relied upon" not to have broken his wrist, if Pedro "could have been relied upon" to make another 12 starts.
 

rotundlio

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I've been a Josh Tobias admirer for years. What's up, Josh? Everyone to suggest that he maxes out as some sort of bench/utility player are simply wrong, screencap notwithstanding.

He was a New York-Penn League All-Star in 2015, the best player on the best team. I watched him every other day. He's a switch-hitter with outstanding discipline and even more outstanding pop, with 69 extra base hits already in parts of two seasons. Triple-slash is .301/.362/.439, about 30-40% better than average; he can play second, third, or left. He had 49 hits in our last 34 games including playoffs, 16 for extra bases, which was neat. Then he took the Sally League to task (137 wRC+) before heading off to Clearwater for a cuppa and finally faceplanting. Dude is ancient (born in 1992), but what a brilliant return! Holy shit! Let's get Darick Hall next!

I view Tobias as a prospect and will definitely follow him as closely
 
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BJBossman

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2011 will always be the great 'what if' in Buchholz's Sox career for me. He signed the contract extension that spring and pitched solidly before eventually landing on the DL, having made only 14 starts. The Red Sox would be a very different team today if Clay, at what should have been the peak of his career, could have been relied upon to pitch another 15 games that season.
Theo is probably still in Boston because the chicken and beer collapse doesn't happen.
 

BJBossman

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You think the beer and chicken mess (I call it a mess because the media made a mess of it, not because I buy into the narrative) is the reason Theo is in Chicago? Really?
Not the mess itself. Just the overall collapse of the team. But lets be honest, it's known as the great chicken and beer mess of 2011. Even though I agree that the actual chicken and beer probably had little effect of how it actually happened.

But if they don't meltdown and make the playoffs in 2011, do I think Theo leaves after 2011? Probably not.

Is it fair to think he may have left before now? Sure, that's a fair stance.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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Not the mess itself. Just the overall collapse of the team. But lets be honest, it's known as the great chicken and beer mess of 2011. Even though I agree that the actual chicken and beer probably had little effect of how it actually happened.

But if they don't meltdown and make the playoffs in 2011, do I think Theo leaves after 2011? Probably not.

Is it fair to think he may have left before now? Sure, that's a fair stance.
Got anything you can back that up with? I don't see any reason to assume Cubs weren't gonna come knocking with their offer of a promotion with more pay and more control one way or the other, so you need to provide something to convince people that Theo would have been likely to turn that down had the Sox won just one more game that year.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I agree with Snod. It might not have ended up so seemingly acrimonious (the whole compensation thing) and it wouldn't have had the feel of a guy running away with his tail between his legs, but there's no doubt the Cubs wanted Theo regardless of how 2011 ended. Hell, if they don't collapse like they did and instead make the playoffs and then fulfill all the "greatest team ever" hype by winning the World Series, I can still see Theo going to Chicago for a new challenge because he's "got nothing left to prove" in Boston.
 

BJBossman

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Got anything you can back that up with? I don't see any reason to assume Cubs weren't gonna come knocking with their offer of a promotion with more pay and more control one way or the other, so you need to provide something to convince people that Theo would have been likely to turn that down had the Sox won just one more game that year.
Besides that circus and finger pointing that came from that?

it changes the entire dynamics of it all. To say otherwise is just trying to be difficult on a message board.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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Besides that circus and finger pointing that came from that?

it changes the entire dynamics of it all. To say otherwise is just trying to be difficult on a message board.
No, it's not. It's asking you to support your claim with evidence. If you are unwilling or unable to do so, then your claim isn't even worth the paper it's printed on.
 

JimD

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Theo is probably still in Boston because the chicken and beer collapse doesn't happen.
I agree with the other posters that Theo likely was gone regardless, albeit less acrimoniously without the stain of the collapse. The real question in my mind is ... is Tito still here?
 

BJBossman

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Snodgrass'Muff

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Which point? You started with the assertion that Theo would still be in Boston today if beer and chicken hadn't happened. Then you moved the goal posts to it's a "fair stance" to say he may have left eventually anyway.

Now you post an article where Theo says he was leaving anyway, just a year later than it happened and you think I owe you an apology? Right.
 

Mr Jums

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Considering they made him the goat of 2011, yes.

And considering this: http://www.espn.com/boston/mlb/story/_/id/7147139/theo-epstein-writes-why-time-was-right-leave-boston-red-sox

I'd say my point stands.

Snoddy can get on his knees and apologize now.
Snod has no reason to apologize and I doubt he has any inclination to do so. All he asked was that you provide even the slightest hint of any type of evidence to back up the claim you were making. As enjoyable as it is to say whatever we want without any proof (I'm pretty sure Jose Batista would be a 50+ home run hitter in Fenway and they should give him whatever money he wants... actually that is fun!), the standard on this board as long as I've frequented it is to actually provide evidence for the arguments you make.

To your credit, you sort of tried. The thing is, the article actually says "Citing football legend Bill Walsh's theory that coaches and executives in team sports benefit from a change of scenery after 10 years or so in the same place, Epstein -- who spent the past nine years as general manager of the Red Sox -- explained he was initially thinking of leaving his hometown team after the 2012 season, when his contract was set to expire." and then after the Cubs spoke with him "I just couldn't envision a role at the Red Sox that would have satisfied the principles that (Bill) Walsh espoused that were resonating with me so much."

So what this article says, at best, Francona's firing secondary to the 2011 collapse led to Theo maybe leaving a year earlier than he'd already planned to. Given that your initial assertion was "Theo is probably still in Boston because the chicken and beer collapse doesn't happen." before all the goal post moving, you'll probably need slightly better evidence than that before you starting resting on your laurels and expecting apologies.

Edit: Snod beat me to it
 

BJBossman

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If you aren't gonna even bother to actually read it (which you clearly haven't read the whole thing...not even a little bit)...Just nevermind.
 
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Jun 2, 2016
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If you aren't gonna even bother to actually read it (which you clearly haven't read the whole thing...not even a little bit)...Just nevermind.
Reading comprehension fella. And just stop with this argument already. I think Snod and Jums summarized the article pretty well. You are taking this silly idea that Theo would still be in the Red Sox front office a little too far. You cannot draw that conclusion from a 2011 article for crying out loud.

Oh, and I read the whole article.
 

BJBossman

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Reading comprehension fella. And just stop with this argument already. I think Snod and Jums summarized the article pretty well. You are taking this silly idea that Theo would still be in the Red Sox front office a little too far. You cannot draw that conclusion from a 2011 article for crying out loud.

Oh, and I read the whole article.
He clearly said that he wouldn't have left if Tito hadn't been made one of the major scapegoats of the collapse and had stayed on as manager.

Where I will backtrack is that if it was going to be as long as Tito was a manager...I can't say that Tito would've gotten a new 5 year deal, but it also seem unlikely that Theo would've left after say 3 years with the team apparently in shambles. When he left the Sox were thought to be in great shape to compete for the WS for another 3 years (through 2014 when a lot of contracts came off the books). That obviously didn't play out, but it did appear to be a factor as well.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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He clearly said that he wouldn't have left if Tito hadn't been made one of the major scapegoats of the collapse and had stayed on as manager.
Probably =/= definitely and even if it did, it only would have meant through the date of the article, October 25th, 2011. His contract was up after the next season and he made it explicitly clear that he didn't even want ownership to offer a new contract because he was looking for a new challenge and was planning on leaving either way.

That you think this article supports your position that Theo would still be in Boston today (or even might have been as you moved the goalposts to later) is laughable. You demanding I get on my knees and apologize is, frankly, hilarious.

Your position isn't even close to tenable, which is why you're now trying to shift the conversation to the 2011 collapse playing some part in the timing of Theo's departure. But hey, it's everyone else that is being unreasonable, right?
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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Keep being difficult. Apparently that's your thing.

Clearly being right isn't.
What position have I taken that you can clearly identify and disprove?

I'll hang up and listen as I see no reason to continue trying to get through to you.

Edit: Removed some snark.
 
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Tyrone Biggums

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Probably =/= definitely and even if it did, it only would have meant through the date of the article, October 25th, 2011. His contract was up after the next season and he made it explicitly clear that he didn't even want ownership to offer a new contract because he was looking for a new challenge and was planning on leaving either way.

That you think this article supports your position that Theo would still be in Boston today (or even might have been as you moved the goalposts to later) is laughable. You demanding I get on my knees and apologize is, frankly, hilarious.

Your position isn't even close to tenable, which is why you're now trying to shift the conversation to the 2011 collapse playing some part in the timing of Theo's departure. But hey, it's everyone else that is being unreasonable, right?
Here's a different debate. Would Theo have wanted a different challenge if the Sox in 2011 had decided to phase Larry out and move Theo up in the food chain? Snod is correct that under the same chain of command Theo was gone. But I often wonder this. Theo is without a doubt the best GM in the history of this team. But let's not forget that everything happens for a reason. No one would even know who Theo Epstein was in Boston without Billy Beane. If Beane didn't back out of becoming GM then who knows what would have happened. Maybe David Ortiz still comes to Boston maybe not. But drafts would have been a lot different.

For what Clay gave the Red Sox organization it's about as much or slightly more than you would expect from someone picked in the supplimental 1st round. Not a bad prize all and all for allowing Pedro to walk.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
Dude is ancient (born in 1992)

I view Tobias as a prospect
I feel like the inherent tension between these statements needs pointing out. His performance at various levels of single-A would be somewhat encouraging....for a 20-year-old. For a guy who's just a few weeks younger than Xander and Mookie, I think "meh" is the right word.

Granted, his pro career is still very young, so maybe he can make up for lost time, put those skills you mention together to have a monster 2017, and then....well, and then get traded, I assume, since it looks like his most viable position is 2B and ours hopefully won't be replaceable for another couple of years at least.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Does anyone agree with rotundlio that Tobias is a legitimate prospect?
Fringe, at best. He's 24 and has no at bats above A ball. He did pretty well in A ball, but when promoted to A+, his strike out rate jumped from 14.2% (415PA) to 20.5% (146PA) and his ISO dropped from .140 to .103. Given the rest of his performance in A+, he's probably going to start the year in Salem. He's not a tremendous athlete/physical specimen and he's not that great defensively. He probably has the upside of Marco Hernandez.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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No, that's not what the articles says.

Here's what the article you linked says:

As ESPN’s Buster Olney wrote on Saturday, the Boston Red Sox will likely need to add another starting pitcher this winter. “It seems inevitable,” he writes, seeing as Eduardo Rodriguez recently tweaked his knee and the team has two other injury question marks in Steven Wright and Drew Pomeranz. A name that’s brought up is Clay Buchholz, whom the Red Sox traded to Philadelphia two weeks ago to shed his salary. Olney never says the Red Sox are targeting Buchholz specifically, or that they’re definitely going to add a pitcher, but that a pitcher like Buchholz makes sense.
Which is speculation based on Olney's speculation which was:

Trading Clay Buchholz made sense because of the luxury tax breaks the Red Sox stand to gain, but it seems inevitable that they will be looking for someone like him in the trade market.
At no point does either writer even hint that the Sox are in the market to reacquire Clay. Olney certainly doesn't and the article you linked makes a specific point to state that Olney doesn't. His own speculation is quite frankly worthless. It's quite clear reading Olney's article that he is simply making the point that Sox may need to go get a guy who fits the mold of what they just sent out. Nothing more. That the shitty Yahoo clearinghouse guy thinks this is worth noting, doesn't make it so.

Please read better or try harder.
 

MikeM

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So according to yahoo hot stove's analysis of Buster Olney the Sox are now in the market to reaquire clay.
Edit: PP got it.

Anyway, zero chance of that actually happening. Edro tweaking his knee doesn't really change anything there either. Post-Sale we have enough top end upside in our rotation now where we really don't need to be messing around with gambling $13m on a Clay Buchholz anymore.

If we end up wanting to add more depth they'll look around for a much cheaper flyer type.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Is it really a surprise that the Sox would be looking for another pitcher? Even without the Rodriguez tweak, there should never have been a doubt that they'd be in the market for another starter this winter. Only this new starter would have to either be on a minor league deal initially or have options that allowed them to put the guy in Pawtucket to begin the year. They weren't ever going to go into the season with just Owens, Elias, and Johnson as starting pitching depth at AAA.
 
Jul 21, 2005
50
I see that in retrospect the tone of the post that I thought I was imparting didn't come through at 2 am on New Years. I thought the headline of the article, which does actually imply the Sox might be looking to get Buch back, was absurd.