Does the CBA still have the clasue that if the extension is announced after a certain date in the season it starts counting for the cap in the next year? (that's what they did with Agon when they traded for him)
Buchholz Traded To Philly For 2B/DH Josh Tobias
- Thread starter Dr. Gonzo
- Start date
Going off the Jamie Garcia deal, I thought that Tobias would be exactly the kind of guy that would be included as the second guy in a Buchholz deal. The first being a pitcher with options that could spot start here or there. So on the one hand I thought they could do a little better, but on the other hand I don't have to watch him throw over to first 50 times an inning.
End of the season. Teams are responsible for the salary of every player who spends time on the roster during the year, pro-rated for how much time they're actually there. So if Buchholz was dumped at the deadline, the Sox would still be taxed for his salary to that point.
So a Roenis Elias level pitcher? I'm not excited about Tobias, but I don't think they were ever going to get anything that will have a material impact on their win expectancy this year.
This was precisely the tone of the interview I saw. Its not that easy to move guys in ST, and its also not that easy to get *that* many starters ready for both starting and relieving. He also said that the value of that extra starter dissipates as the season goes on because they can't throw more than 50 pitches anyway if they start. That's why I thought Wright was destined for 6th starterdom from the get-go.
Buchholz was frustrating, but I have no complaints.
His money counts for as long as he was on the roster. So at the deadline he'd have counted for a little more than half of his contract.
Honestly this was one of the gutsiest pitching performances I've ever seen, Buchholz had absolutely nothing and was very obviously either hurt or gassed or both.
If this is all you're going to get back why bother picking up the option? I know hind sight, etc., but this is disappointing.
Is it still true that an extension signed AFTER Opening Day would not alter the 2017 CBT calculation? Isn't that why the team waited on Gonzalez's extension until early April?
I'm a little surprised at the return. Even if it's just a salary dump. You have to think Clay's an excellent chance to be at least a league average starter in the NL, with the potential to be much better.
If Clay was a FA, coming off his performance last year, how much would the Phillies pay him for a one-year make good deal to upgrade the back end of their rotation. (We threw 10M at Masterson two years ago to be our #5.)
If Clay was a FA, coming off his performance last year, how much would the Phillies pay him for a one-year make good deal to upgrade the back end of their rotation. (We threw 10M at Masterson two years ago to be our #5.)
Looked again at that box score. Trip down memory lane. Pedroia and Bogaerts. That's it.
So if anyone else was wondering why the Phillies would bother picking up a guy like Clay:
For those on mobile it is Stark agreeing with Abraham that Clay is a perfect guy for them to flip at the deadline and is typical of all of their moves this offseason.
For those on mobile it is Stark agreeing with Abraham that Clay is a perfect guy for them to flip at the deadline and is typical of all of their moves this offseason.
Good question. I don't know, but I would be kind of surprised if those rules had changed -- neither side had a major problem with the existing rules.
Of course, it's not a given that a player will agree to assume injury risk through Spring Training on a club-favorable extension (or that the terms on April 1 will be the same as they would have been on February 15), so it may be necessary (or at least desirable) to have an extension hit this year's CBT number.
It's an effective way to turn cash into prospects, while also improving the product on the field. Good strategy for a team like the Phillies that doesn't have a reasonable chance to contend this year, but needs to do something to sell tickets.
I enjoyed the good Clay when he pitched, which as others noted, he actually did quite a bit. I have no issues with this move, if one guy of the 4 had to go, I thought it would be Clay b/c of the money, or Drew b/c of the fact he's a lefty. I'm not sure Drew is going to be better than Clay going forward, but even good Clay came with midseason injury breaks, bad Clay just came with inconsistency. I wish he was more of a workhorse or more reliable, but if he was, we'd have extended him ala Porcello and we'd all be bitching about 20m/yr value. So I'm good with it. Sale/Price/Porcello at the top of the rotation makes decisions about the bottom much easier to swallow.
Because they didn't have Sale yet, and Buchholz was somebody they could throw out there in 2017 if they needed to. Sale's acquisition created a situation where the Sox really did have more pitching than they needed, and Buchholz was, as many of us thought, the obvious guy to move. Especially since the fact that his salary matches up so closely with Sale's makes the Sale upgrade essentially payroll-neutral.
I too hoped we'd get a little more for him than this, but while I don't think the small return automatically makes picking up the option a bad move in retrospect, I think it does suggest that it wasn't as much of a no-brainer as some around here were saying. A guy who brings that little in trade value is very nearly a guy you can't trade at all, so they were, as it turns out, taking on some risk by picking up the option.
Because having no Buchholz but a Josh Tobias is better than having no Buchholz AND no Josh Tobias? Plus, they hadn't traded for Sale at that point. The hindsight about the option is... well... let's just go with puzzling.
Anyway, if we pull Buchholz off of projected payroll and guess at arb awards of something like:
Bogaerts - 5.5
Pomeranz - 4.5
JBJ - 3.5
Kelly - 2.5
Thornburg - 2.0
Abad - 2.0
Ross - 2.0
Holt - 1.5
Leon - 1.0
Workman - 1.0
We are probably looking at them being somewhere around 185-190M or so depending on benefits. (Cot's has them at 179M pre-trade.)
This trade was about hedging against a surprisingly high arb award and making sure they had a little room to maneuver during the season.
One Phillies blog has Tobias the 3rd ranked second baseman in the Phillies system, but if he can hit, he probably has value to the Sox. The write-up:
"3. Joshua Tobias: A = .304/.375/.444, 7 HR, 14.2% K, 7.5% BB, A+ = .254/.324/.357, 2 HR, 20.5% K, 8.2% BB
Again, a late season call up makes the higher level stats a bit sketchy to really read anything into. Tobias may be the weirdest of the weird guys at this position. His defense probably falls into the hot mess bucket per most reports, but dude just keeps hitting. Sure he’s playing at a level where he’s older than most players, but he can’t control that. Unless his defense makes sudden, lightspeed improvement Tobias won’t be an everyday Second Baseman. However, if he can hit reliably there may be a bench role for him as a Left Field, 3rd Base (where he played in College) and Second Base sub. It’s hard not to route for the guy to hit his way to the Majors in some role."
"3. Joshua Tobias: A = .304/.375/.444, 7 HR, 14.2% K, 7.5% BB, A+ = .254/.324/.357, 2 HR, 20.5% K, 8.2% BB
Again, a late season call up makes the higher level stats a bit sketchy to really read anything into. Tobias may be the weirdest of the weird guys at this position. His defense probably falls into the hot mess bucket per most reports, but dude just keeps hitting. Sure he’s playing at a level where he’s older than most players, but he can’t control that. Unless his defense makes sudden, lightspeed improvement Tobias won’t be an everyday Second Baseman. However, if he can hit reliably there may be a bench role for him as a Left Field, 3rd Base (where he played in College) and Second Base sub. It’s hard not to route for the guy to hit his way to the Majors in some role."
They signed Workman to 635K a few days ago. A few more coins in the couch cushions.
http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2016/12/boston_red_sox_brandon_workman.html
http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2016/12/boston_red_sox_brandon_workman.html
So, we just traded Buch + his money for a guy who might usurp Brock Holt? Great!
This. We're not signing EE now. In another thread, jokingly, I mentioned that we'd sign EE come June 1st, when compensation isn't tied to him anymore. This money, if it takes us enough below the threshold, means that DD can look at the roster come June and say: what do we need to win. Is it another Pomz type trade? Is it 3B help? Is it another reliever?
The Phillies really need to hope that Clay is good for a few months. Maybe he will be, knowing that he's not only guaranteed a spot. Maybe he won't be, knowing that he's pitching for his next contract/a better opportunity. I wish him the best - at his best, I loved watching him. At his worst, I couldn't watch the TV.
Also making him a free agent means he can go wherever. At least with the Sox in charge of his contract for one more year, he doesn't end up in Baltimore or Toronto.
Alex Speier@alexspeier
Dombrowski notes that Sox now have flexibility for in-season move(s) while staying below lux tax threshold.
Of course, with the farm system thoroughly depleted, it's unclear how much we'll be able to do then anyway.
Can you imagine the collective hari-kari if Buch was in the AL East and won an important game in the 2nd half of the season, let alone the playoffs?
Circle your calendars for June 12-15. 4 games at the Phils. We're gonna see him (if he hasn't been traded yet). Maybe preemptively lock the game thread now.
I wonder if someone like Solartes could be squeezed in financially now? The only item they need is another RHH 3B type. Or I imagine Plouffe is getting less expensive by the day.
I was at that game. Arguably my favorite regular season game I've been to (just counting the game itself, been many with pregame festivities that were amazing)
Really dislike the return here, you can never have enough starting pitching, now I realize we have 6 with no options but Tobias doesn't make us better.
Not looking forward to July when either we have too many injuries or Phils trade Buch to one of our rivals, or worse, we trade a lot more to get Buch back. Buch was an above average starter for us over his career and if healthy should be that for whomever he pitches.
Hoping we can reinvest these millions soon.
That's an unfair characterization of the system, of which none of its minor league teams have won a World Series - ever.
Additionally, some teams make trades that are about dumping salary in the middle of the season. The Sox would be in good position to swoop in there.
Maybe Wright's shoulder was still a question mark when the option was picked up, but it is not now. Who knows? Just because you can't think of reasons, doesn't mean there aren't any.
They may have just gotten one (not for this year, but perhaps for 2018-19). One intriguing thing about Tobias: he has hit LHP very well in his short pro career (.849 in 73 PA in 2015, .919 in 134 PA in 2016). Lots of asterisks there: small sample, he's old for his levels, etc., but it sort of makes it easier to see why DD found him attractive. He might turn out to be Rutledge's successor in the RHH-utility-guy-who-spells-Panda-vs.-LHP role.
Well, and also, as disappointed as I am with the return here, what exactly would be better if we hadn't picked up the option? Josh Tobias is probably an upgrade on Chad de la Guerra as Salem's 2B. Which is better than nothing, if not by much.
Maybe this guy turns out to be another Brock Holt. He's gotta sweet swing.
http://www.boston.com/sports/boston-red-sox/2016/12/20/meet-josh-tobias-the-prospect-acquired-in-exchange-for-clay-buchholz
http://www.boston.com/sports/boston-red-sox/2016/12/20/meet-josh-tobias-the-prospect-acquired-in-exchange-for-clay-buchholz
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I'd like to see a Venn diagram of people who think Buchholz sucks and people who think we didn't get much in return for him.
My fear is that the overlap is significant.
My fear is that the overlap is significant.
I'm confused by people who expected that our $13.5m 6th starter/bullpen long man would bring back a cheap 6th starter/bullpen long man with options. Tobias seems like a reasonable return to me for a slightly better (from the team's perspective) than market deal. Also, it makes sense to get this deal done now and not have to worry about Buchholz staying healthy through spring training.
But after May 1 or so, when that 7th starter has pitched about 7 innings out of the bullpen, he'd need 3 weeks to be a starter again. So maybe its a hedge against a season ending injury, but it isn't aganist a 21 day DL trip. Wright is that because it appears he can ramp up more quickly.
In not unhappy with the trade because it's mainly a salary dump, but I thought the Sox would get at least two youngsters in return, someone like Tobias and a single-A pitching lottery ticket, sort of like bargain-bin versions of Moncada and Kopech.
This guy won two rings with the Red Sox so for as frustrating as it was to watch him struggle at times (and throw over to first for comfort) I have nothing but love for the guy.
As for the return, unlike others here, I don't feel comfortable that I have enough information about Buchholz' market to say that Dombrowski didn't get the proper return. That said, it seems like some posters here do and I would be interested to see why they think the Sox got the wrong end of this deal. What other options were available to them? Why would waiting be better, especially when an injury could render Buchholz less attractive or not tradeable?
As for the return, unlike others here, I don't feel comfortable that I have enough information about Buchholz' market to say that Dombrowski didn't get the proper return. That said, it seems like some posters here do and I would be interested to see why they think the Sox got the wrong end of this deal. What other options were available to them? Why would waiting be better, especially when an injury could render Buchholz less attractive or not tradeable?
One reason waiting may be better would be you could choose what team he'd be on in August/September/October, plus other pitchers would be hurt and you could obtain leverage. That said, you and others are right about the Buch risk for injury.
Nobody is going to trade somebody with a super-high ceiling, no matter how raw or far away they are, for 13.5m and one year of Clay Buchholz.
I like the trade. Salary relief, roster relief (kinda strange why nobody is talking about this part,) more room for in-season flexibility, no more Clay injury/consistency angst. Now the team can use that money on a surplus bullpen arm or sit on it, the rotation is properly set the way it should be, and Wright can prepare to settle in as the 6th/swingman.
In theory, yes. But if DD and the baseball people think that Rodriguez and Pomerantz are more likely to succeed as starters (and Wright in the pen/swingman), then what would Buchholz's value be by summer? And if they dont think that he's among the two best starters, then starting him just to keep his trade value up would be asinine.
[QUOTE=" I like the trade. Salary relief, roster relief (kinda strange why nobody is talking about this part,) more room for in-season flexibility, no more Clay injury/consistency angst. Now the team can use that money on a surplus bullpen arm or sit on it, the rotation is properly set the way it should be, and Wright can prepare to settle in as the 6th/swingman.[/QUOTE]
I think its a possibility that they add someone like Trevor Plouffe on a similar deal to what Mitch Moreland just signed. He can play some 3B/1B and platoon with Panda if necessary. That would still leave them with around $8M for in-season manuevering
I think its a possibility that they add someone like Trevor Plouffe on a similar deal to what Mitch Moreland just signed. He can play some 3B/1B and platoon with Panda if necessary. That would still leave them with around $8M for in-season manuevering
My favorite posts in this thread have been those who are saying "why did we pick up his option if this is what we were getting for him?" (As if that logically follows.) Team saved $500K (versus simply not exercising his option) and got minor league fodder back. That's a huge win.
Godspeed, Clay.
Godspeed, Clay.
If you're worried about where he ends up post deadline, the only trade partners you would have would be potential postseason opponents, thus negating the purpose. A team not going anywhere isn't going to block a prospect from playing time to take Clay off your hands. It's not like he's selling tickets.
Ding ding ding.
Especially on such a high gamble proposition like Buchholz, who never really held any noteworthy trade value to begin with. Taking the risk that you end up eating salary or paying Buchholz $13m to come out of the pen, which would have been a complete mismanagement of financial resources, was never an option here. The reasoning/logic behind this trade begins and ends right there imo.
On to the how much money is left for minor roster tweaks debate.
A lot of folks seem to be downplaying the risk in this deal for the Phillies - yeah, he *could* net a nice haul if he's healthy and pitching well at the July deadline, but what are the odds of that given Clay's history? There's at least a 50/50 chance that he gets hurt or pitches inconsistently enough that Philadelphia has to eat the entire $13 million.
