First rule I ever learned ... "know your audience"It doesn't take much to put 2 and 2 together.
First rule I ever learned ... "know your audience"It doesn't take much to put 2 and 2 together.
Bogaerts feels more like Robbie Cano. (Or what JA said, oops).This is an excellent post, jon. The part that’s hard for fans is that it’s coming with both Xander and Devers at the same time, and only a couple years after the Mookie situation. And yes, some people are still upset at the Lester thing, which my understanding was Lucchino-driven.
Personally, I don’t want Bloom signing anybody to 12-year/$400M deals, no matter how much I love the players. But the flip side is that you are essentially running your Jeter, Bernie and Posada out of town. I actually wonder if they move Xander at the deadline instead of losing him for nothing. It seems hard to believe but … it was hard to believe with Mookie as well. And Bloom got a pretty good return.
Come on.... Being far apart on offers does not equal or mean it was an insulting offer...Judging by what this FO did with Betts, everyone should tend to believe this report Heyman or not. Everyone is too focused on where it came from and not the substance of it. You think it's BS because you don't want to believe they would offer Bogaerts such an unbelievably low deal. Bogaerts himself on the record confirmed that the two sides were way off a couple of weeks ago. It doesn't take much to put 2 and 2 together.
I'll just note that the way Heyman wrote gives me some pause. He wrote: "who has an opt-out after the season on the deal that pays him $20 million annually through 2024, received an offer from Boston to simply add one year to the three he has his left on his deal. Sources suggest it was for about $30 million in that extra year, bringing his potential total to about $90 million."Judging by what this FO did with Betts, everyone should tend to believe this report Heyman or not. Everyone is too focused on where it came from and not the substance of it. You think it's BS because you don't want to believe they would offer Bogaerts such an unbelievably low deal. Bogaerts himself on the record confirmed that the two sides were way off a couple of weeks ago. It doesn't take much to put 2 and 2 together.
You may think that, but only one person's feeling on it matters and that's the person on the receiving end.Come on.... Being far apart on offers does not equal or mean it was an insulting offer...
I could want a $400M dollar salary and my employer count counter with $300M..
and again, the only person who has reported it being an "insulting offer" is Heyman,
It’s currently unclear if there will still be a QO system this winter:I'm unsure of the rules of a qualifying offer, but, if Xander should remain with the Sox for the entire season, and opts out after the world series, can the Sox tag him with a qualifying offer?
It's still up in the air whether such a thing will exist come winter. One of the agreements in the new CBA is that the owners and players have until sometime in July to agree to an international draft system. If they do, the compensation for free agents (qualifying offer compensation) goes away. If there is no international draft, the comp picks remain.I'm unsure of the rules of a qualifying offer, but, if Xander should remain with the Sox for the entire season, and opts out after the world series, can the Sox tag him with a qualifying offer?
Yorke is in high A and just turned 20 two weeks ago, he is not playing for the Red Sox this year.I wouldn't be surprised at all if they traded Xander in July for 2B/RF/C/P, and move Story to SS, especially if Downs and/or Yorke show promise May/June.
He has a full no trade clause.I wouldn't be surprised at all if they traded Xander in July for 2B/RF/C/P, and move Story to SS, especially if Downs and/or Yorke show promise May/June.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RrkVyXFsx6YYou may think that, but only one person's feeling on it matters and that's the person on the receiving end.
I'm thinking of an extend and trade, with his permission. That was you get more for him, too, than a mere rental.
Arroyo for this year. Arauz backing up both Arroyo and Story.Yorke is in high A and just turned 20 two weeks ago, he is not playing for the Red Sox this year.
What incentive would Xander have to sign an extension when he can just wait 2-3 more months to hit the open market? I don't think he'd care about helping the Sox get more for him in that situation.I'm thinking of an extend and trade, with his permission. That was you get more for him, too, than a mere rental.
That would make sense for neither side. Xander wants to get to unrestricted free agency, and have potentially 30 teams bidding for him. He’s not giving that up when he’s 2 months away from it.I'm thinking of an extend and trade, with his permission. That was you get more for him, too, than a mere rental.
Casas could well be up (and ideally mashing) by summer. If that happens, I wonder if its totally decoupled or if it would inform the choices Bloom makes for X and D if one assumes they end up moving down the defensive value chart to over next couple years.Yorke is in high A and just turned 20 two weeks ago, he is not playing for the Red Sox this year.
I would think it's pretty silly because there is no way he's going to take it.How does the offer look if you don't think Xander is a SS going forward? 4/$90 doesn't seem so egregious for a 3B.
So far his AAA slash line over 435 PA is .190/.272/.336/.608. Not hard to see why scouts would be down on his ability to hit big league pitching.A couple of people here have mentioned Downs as a contributor. Not trying to derail the thread too much, but the guys on SoxProspects are VERY bearish on Downs right now. They're not completely writing him off, but they say he may never be able to hit major-league pitching.
They're not only basing on this year's and last year's performance, but their own in-person looks at him in Spring Training.So far his AAA slash line over 435 PA is .190/.272/.336/.608. Not hard to see why scouts would be down on his ability to hit big league pitching.
Machado was in the conversation for 2nd best player in baseball when he signed that contract and Rendon was coming off of 4 huge years in a row and a year where he finished 3rd in MVP. Bogaerts really isn't that close to their caliber in terms of consistency or peak potential, he's pretty far behind.Really? Machado got 10/300 (or if you consider he was 4 years younger than Bogaerts when he got the deal, call it 6/180). Rendon got 7/245 (same age as Bogaerts when signed). Bogaerts may be slightly behind both of those guys as a 3B, but he's not that far behind them. 4/90 is Story AAV at a shorter length. That just doesn't sit right given they just gave Story his deal and they're the same age. At least make it the same length as Story's deal.
I dont think its particularly likely that X is getting into the $250 to $300M range of those deals, but there is a massive chasm between those deals and the reported offer.The fact that the Rendon deal looks pretty terrible and the Machado one just ok should give everyone pause, too, no? I like Boagerts, he’s a really good player but it seems pretty likely that the Sox got his best years. To give him an increasing amount of money as he declines, especially when we have potential in house replacements, doesn’t seem like a really great idea.
The Sox might go for that. Don't see Bogaerts doing it. He's opting out now to get the proverbial last big deal. If he was okay with hitting free agency at 33, he just wouldn't opt-out. I don't think an extra $30M makes a difference to him, even if it would increase his salary into the elite echelon of SS with Lindor and Seager and Correa.Would either side consider adding $30M to the existing contract, thus making it 3/$90?
Would cover the years until Mayer is ready and give X a chance at hitting the market at 33, but with $30M more guaranteed.
FWIW...I'm guessing Bogaerts was pleased with the last contract that he signed. A contract that afforded him an opt out at the end of this season. An opt out that he has publicly stated that he will take advantage of. If he indeed is opting out, does it matter what the Sox have recently offered? If they want him back, we'll see what they are willing to pony up against whatever other offers are made.If the 4/90 part is true, they should be insulted at that offer and I don't blame them for not countering that. That is a Jon Lester-esque type of lowball.
What does Boras have to lose by mischaracterizing the offer or spinning it to make it seem worse than it actually was? As long as he represents players, the teams will have to deal with him.but I struggle to see the reasoning behind making such an offer - he wasnt going to take it and is low enough that it could be viewed as insulting. For what its worth, if Heyman's reporting is coming from Boras, itd be shocking if that offer was not made. He has no reason to give specifics that are wrong and risks burning some credibility for minimal or no gain.
I don't think he has much of anything to lose for the reasons you state. And I can see where he might see a benefit to "leaking" that his player is insulted (whether it's true or not) as a way to apply pressure through the media. Especially in a market like Boston where sports radio hosts and listeners are rabid and eager to jump on any perceived controversy with both feet.What does Boras have to lose by mischaracterizing the offer or spinning it to make it seem worse than it actually was? As long as he represents players, the teams will have to deal with him.
And I doubt Chaim is going to get into a pissing war with Boras over an offer made this early in the process.
And no matter how or why Chaim communicated "adding one year at $30M" onto X's contract, I'm sure no one expects this to be the last offer BOS makes.
FWIW, Mazz on the radio today talked about doubting Boras was presenting all the details on this offer.I don't think he has much of anything to lose for the reasons you state. And I can see where he might see a benefit to "leaking" that his player is insulted (whether it's true or not) as a way to apply pressure through the media. Especially in a market like Boston where sports radio hosts and listeners are rabid and eager to jump on any perceived controversy with both feet.
Like someone said earlier though, it's unlikely Bloom is going to change tack because of what callers on Felger and Mazz, or columnists like Shank, or posters on SoSH might say about him.
I dont see any gain to making numbers up so the downside might be limited, but theres no real pay off. I'm inclined to believe the report if it is Boras - it may have been an initial offer that has since been revised, but it seems really unlikely to me that he just made up the numbers. This isnt slightly low (its really really low) so mischaracterizing it somewhat is somewhat irrelevant.What does Boras have to lose by mischaracterizing the offer or spinning it to make it seem worse than it actually was? As long as he represents players, the teams will have to deal with him.
And I doubt Chaim is going to get into a pissing war with Boras over an offer made this early in the process.
And no matter how or why Chaim communicated "adding one year at $30M" onto X's contract, I'm sure no one expects this to be the last offer BOS makes.
This is my fear with both X and Devers. The Sox offer is so low from what they are looking for that they jump right into free agency. The first team that offers a big contract and they are gone. Whereas if they can find closer ground, they might wait for the Sox final offer before looking elsewhere.Judging by what this FO did with Betts, everyone should tend to believe this report Heyman or not. Everyone is too focused on where it came from and not the substance of it. You think it's BS because you don't want to believe they would offer Bogaerts such an unbelievably low deal. Bogaerts himself on the record confirmed that the two sides were way off a couple of weeks ago. It doesn't take much to put 2 and 2 together.
So they're going to go to free agency because they want big contracts but not let one of the biggest payroll teams bid on them? Yeah that makes no sense, if they get to free agency and the Sox outbid everyone else there's a huge chance that they'll re-sign.This is my fear with both X and Devers. The Sox offer is so low from what they are looking for that they jump right into free agency. The first team that offers a big contract and they are gone. Whereas if they can find closer ground, they might wait for the Sox final offer before looking elsewhere.
You can't "find closer ground" when you fly away from the table.This is my fear with both X and Devers. The Sox offer is so low from what they are looking for that they jump right into free agency. The first team that offers a big contract and they are gone. Whereas if they can find closer ground, they might wait for the Sox final offer before looking elsewhere.
Exactly. I happen to think Bloom knows what he's doing, and this will work out for the franchise in the end.That’s true for me as well.
i think reactions are amplified by the larger concern, lessened somewhat by Story, of a RaysNorth operation.
If we aren’t going to resign the drafted and developed stars (didn’t say homegrown!) then it’s potentially going to take time for the longer tail of farm led teams to mature.
We’ve got Devers and X for more than this year, which may offer the bridge to Casas/Yorke-Mayer/etc., or maybe Bloom feels the better way to invest going forward is pitching, but it’s hard not to read the tea leaves and see both X and D walking.
That said, I can imagine Bloom finding a way to spend the $60m annual tied up in their theoretical future contracts on better win/$ investments.
Personally, I hope Bloom identifies a better inflection point to sign younger players to long term deals…this seems like a good thing forMLB overall.
I don't know where people get this idea that other baseball reporters like Passan or Olney or Rosenthal are completely reliable, everyone gets fed info from agents and teams, Heyman is just more obvious about it.Has their been any other source corroborating this info other then Heyman and the Post or are we still taking unsubstantiated claims and treating them like gospel?
I think you're correct about Bloom especially as he's not emotionally attached the way Ben Cherington would have been as the guy who initially brought him up or even Dave Dombrowski as the guy who gave him his current contract. Bloom can assess the situation objectively in a way we fans can't.It is less about the source and more about the numbers. It is good that Olney and Speier find it credible, but if it was just Oleny or just Speiers reporting this, I would still wonder why this page was exploding. I also don't understand why this matters. It is not hard to imagine that Bloom is lukewarm on a thirty year old shortstop who is very bad on defense and has been for a number of years.
I kind of wonder if Ownership is taking a more hands off approach at this point. If we go through the FO heads since the Ownership has taken over, we can probably identify a few moves that were more ownership directed. Since Theo left the Sox have gone through a fest or famine roller coaster and perhaps ownership wants to see what Bloom can do on his own without their interference. I am not sure if the point I am trying to make is clear, but I feel that Ownership's attachments might not come into play here. That being said you are right. Ownership is probably the wild card here.I think you're correct about Bloom especially as he's not emotionally attached the way Ben Cherington would have been as the guy who initially brought him up or even Dave Dombrowski as the guy who gave him his current contract. Bloom can assess the situation objectively in a way we fans can't.
But for a player like Bogaerts, it wouldn't be unreasonable to think that ownership, who should have some emotional attachment to a player they signed as a teenager and have watched come up through their system and blossom into a star over the course of a decade+. And it would make all kinds of sense if they would direct Bloom to act with their emotional attachment in mind. Basically, if they want to pay Bogie what he's asking, they will regardless of what the objective analysis might be.
That said, it's probably too early for them to be involved at all. Bogaerts is under contract for four more years until that day in November when he exercises the opt-out. There's no urgency on their part to insert themselves yet. So for the time being, it's the logical and objective approach. Which apparently allows for Boras to employ the histrionic "he's insulted" approach to rile the media.