A lot of the "ownership" involved moves seemed to involve Luchhino more often than the others, which might contribute to the feeling that things are more hands off since he's been gone a while. I expect that the big expenditures still go to Henry and Werner (the Story deal, for example) so eventually I expect them to have a role with the Bogaerts negotiations. Just not now.
I’m not a sabre guy and know he has some shortcomings. But is it accepted knowledge that Xander’s defense is “very bad”?
UZR likes him defensively. None of the other metrics do. "Very bad" might be a stretch, but he's considered below average overall.
And the thing about UZR is that it is even worse than it used to be for infielders, because its shift adjustment is just to exclude from consideration plays where shifts are employed. On teams that employ a bunch of shifts, this means the sample sizes are just way too small to be useful.
I could not agree more with this perspective. Bloom has been tasked with building a sustainable contender. Tying up a significant amount of a limited resource (salary cap space) on a player both exiting his prime production years and demonstrating some defensive fallibility does not seem like a sustainable team-building strategy.
FanGraphs had Bogaerts as the 16th best hitter in all of baseball last season, regardless of position. [edit: by WAR]
And Semien and Correas' are .810, and Story and Bichette's are .818 in pretty great hitting environments if we have to go down this route using this stat. .860 is insane as a shortstop.
I'm seeing him at 32 last year, 130 wRC+, tied with Altuve. How are you coming up with number 16 in baseball?
I understand why Bogaerts would be piste, but he needs to flèche some more leather if he’s looking for épée day.
How does the calculus change if you don't think he's a viable shortstop going forward? Is he still so fantastic relative to his peers that he deserves a significant raise at multiple years?
Semien isnt a materially better bet to play short going forward - hes never been good there and came to free agency a full year older. He's actually somewhat similar in that UZR likes him as a solid-average fielder but toth OAA and DRS think hes pretty poor. Obviously there's a ton more risk in Semien's bat (who is he the 2019/21 version or the guy he was his other 6 years where he was just bad). He seems a pretty good indication that Xander can bank on $150M+ and likely closer to $200M in a lighter infield year.
Well, Devers, Austin Riley and Jose Ramirez were the only 3B to hit better than Bogaerts. Bogaerts' offensive production would make him a top-five LF, too.
I'm going by their last 650 plate appearances like you were for all of those guys, most of which were in Toronto for Semien.
It kind of depends on how long the extension is, what team budget is, and what the luxury tax threshold is, doesn't it? Now 30M in his 39yo doesn't make sense, but I don't mind a .860 OPS hitter in LF, who can be your backup at 3B, SS, and 2B in case of someone's injury, even at 30M AAV in his mid-30's. I think the team, with historically a top 5 payroll, and one that keeps increasing revenue streams, can afford it. Not my money though. And it's still a better contract than Sale given the injury risks and intangibles.
I think this is often overlooked. Doesn't make much sense to pay full FA rates a year into the future, A LOT can happen.
You're missing the primary point of my post, which is that his offensive and defensive performance is diminishing as he ages out of his prime years. I will repost what I wrote upthread.
I don't think your math on Semien is right. He had 724 PA in Toronto at a 0.873 OPS at age 30 and 33 PA in Texas at a 0.379 OPS this season. It blends to around a 0.850 OPS.
Not going to do any cross-referencing to verify, but I hope those upset that Bloom is showing reluctance to pay up for Bogaerts right now aren't also folks who bemoan the Sale extension for coming "too soon". It's basically the same principle.
I also think that if you are trying to convince a guy, who has repeatedly said he wants to test out free agency, to forego this then you may wind up having to make an offer that is well more than you want to. If Bogaerts wants to be a free agent---to have for the first chance in his career to field offers from multiple teams and to have the opportunity to then seek out the best option for him in terms of contract AND situation---then the Sox would potentially need to pay a premium to convince him to not do that. Bogaerts has been very clear about his interest in opting out---so he may turn down a contract extension offer that is similar to an offer that is similar to what he ultimately signs in free agency. Especially when he knows that Boston at some point may ask him to move off SS. Why not at least see what offers are out there before you commit? Maybe he'll come back to Boston at terms we're happy/not happy with. Maybe he'll decide to take 10 years and 300 million (or more) to finish out his career missing the playoffs with the Orioles. Whatever happens, I fully expect him to go to FA----and that's even if the Sox are out of it at the deadline and he gets traded.
I think you’re missing how the FO approaches these deals, and that points to a key difference between Sale and X.
I think the answer is an unequivocal “no.”
Were you happy with the contributions from Hernandez, Renfroe, Whitlock, Schwarber and Pivetta last season? Verdugo seems to be doing OK. Trevor Story's had a very nice career to date. These are all guys that Bloom brought in, yes? Now let's shift to the work ahead. With an eye to next year and beyond, I'm guessing you want to see Devers extended as we all do, but he's not coming cheap. Who's the starting catcher next year? Vaz and Plawecki are both FAs after this season as are 2 of your 3 starting outfielders. Martinez's bat is leaving and Sale, Eovaldi, Paxton, Wacha and Hill may leave as many as 3 holes to fill in the starting rotation. How much do you want to lay out for a guy who fully intends to explore free agency when you already have a more than capable replacement in house at a time when 4 other bats are leaving your starting line up and there's no one in your rotation behind Houck and Pivetta?
I’m with your point, but as it stands right now their 2023 payroll is a few bills over $100m.
Even if X said, "I'll sign today for 10 years and 450 Million. Otherwise I'll try the market"? Sign him anyway?
I am unsure if you meant you believe they kept the right guy, or the team believed they did. But the right guy per bWAR, would have been the other HOFer - Pudge Fisk.
You were supposed to change your avatar back when the Sox hit $200 million in payroll. You never did.
I remember some reporting at that time that Rice was the guy to keep; Pudge was a 32 year old catcher at that time and given the physical toll of playing that position no one foresaw him playing well into his 40's. In any case I'm pleased with Jim Rice's career and IMHO you couldn't pick wrong between those two.
The Sox "braintrust" drafted Fisk's replacement in the 2nd round of the 79 draft. Can't have that kind of talent blocked.
The same place that every poster on this board gets their info from when they are theorizing what moves Bloom will make, or how Cora will utilize certain players, or which prospects should be kept or traded. Just a few examples for you. Now maybe you had trouble reading my post. At no point did I say I know. I used the term I think. If a pithy comment is all you can manage, you should probably refrain from posting. You make well known members look bad.
Thanks Lose.
