Bogaerts Does Not Seem Open to Moving off of SS

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat · Mar 15, 2022

I don't know why this would surprise anyone. People read way too much into his "down the road" comment. He'd probably move once Mayer arrives, unlikely before. He's signing his next contract as a shortstop, not a second baseman, left fielder, or multi-position guy.

j-man · Mar 15, 2022

keep building your farm team and withen 2 years u guys will be the rays with $

nvalvo · Mar 15, 2022

Petagine in a Bottle said:
New threads are good. And it certainly seems like Xander Bogaerts is not open to playing anywhere other than SS anytime soon.

“Bro, I’m a shortstop, man!”

Certainly seems like this makes the Correa signing a pipe dream, and potentially complicates what the team does with X down the road, no?

https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/red-sox/red-sox-star-xander-bogaerts-has-no-desire-change-positions-im-shortstop-man?cid=sm_npd_rsn_bos_fb_mn&fbclid=IwAR3SikjqZ9IFefr3RjvJs-ogitwK8oejY1BVahK5h_M1e8hmWopsySfSzbo#l0srulyz9i39p32wgp5

For me, it simplifies it.

Xander Bogaerts adds a bunch of value with his bat — like 2-3 wins a season. He's probably a bad defensive shortstop, however. How bad is tough to say: he's a player who the various metrics disagree on (UZR, which notably excludes shifted plays, likes him fine; DRS thinks he's giving almost a win back on defense every season). But the team's infield defense is inarguably bad (like 30th out of 30 in defensive efficiency bad), and he's the shortstop. He gets a fair amount of dWAR because it's a counting stat, he's been healthy, and he logs a lot of innings at shortstop.

I absolutely understand that he wants to go out on the market as a shortstop. As is his right. But I don't think I would sign him to another contract at FA shortstop dollars (i.e. $30m+ AAV) to be a shortstop. He's a good enough hitter to still be a pretty damned valuable player as a 2B, 3B, or corner OF, and he's a homegrown player whom I quite like, and would like to retain.

If he had two or three years left on his deal, I might ride it out and hope that Mayer is ready quickly. But he has one year left, pre-opt out, and will want to extend for 6, 7 or 8. If his stance is that he's a shortstop, full stop, then I'm thinking hard about moving on. Do we let him walk in FA? There is still some sort of draft compensation for departing FAs in the new CBA, but I don't understand the details of it yet. Do we trade him? Do we add Correa or Story now?

scottyno · Mar 15, 2022

No shit, he'll get more money as a shortstop than he would at another position, this should surprise literally no one. It'll be the same with Devers. Once they sign their long term deals and don't give up a premium for playing a worse position they'll become more amenable to switching.

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat · Mar 15, 2022

scottyno said:
No shit, he'll get more money as a shortstop than he would at another position, this should surprise literally no one. It'll be the same with Devers. Once they sign their long term deals and don't give up a premium for playing a worse position they'll become more amenable to switching.

They might.
Some are like Jeter.

NoXInNixon · Mar 15, 2022

scottyno said:
No shit, he'll get more money as a shortstop than he would at another position, this should surprise literally no one. It'll be the same with Devers. Once they sign their long term deals and don't give up a premium for playing a worse position they'll become more amenable to switching.

But if we sign him to a long term deal at a SS price, and he then moves to a worse position, it becomes a bad contract.

I'd rather let someone else sign him to that contract.

scottyno · Mar 15, 2022

NoXInNixon said:
But if we sign him to a long term deal at a SS price, and he then moves to a worse position, it becomes a bad contract.

I'd rather let someone else sign him to that contract.

That depends entirely on what the contract is and how his bat plays into his mid 30s. Current bat bogaerts, at any position, would easily be worth the 30-35m a year that top SSs are signing for now.

trs · Mar 16, 2022

scottyno said:
No shit, he'll get more money as a shortstop than he would at another position, this should surprise literally no one. It'll be the same with Devers. Once they sign their long term deals and don't give up a premium for playing a worse position they'll become more amenable to switching.

True, but wouldn't other teams have the same reasons to hesitate to ink him for SS money when it's getting closer and closer 6:00pm on his SS career?

As others have said, Bogaerts has every right to consider himself a shortstop and demand to be paid like one, but that being said his defensive metrics aren't classified, and for him just to hope that there's a rich team willing to overpay seems less and less likely these days.

Or of course the idea that his future at SS is limited could be completely overstated and he's gonna get paid a metric shit-ton. And deserve it.

Rovin Romine · Mar 16, 2022

scottyno said:
That depends entirely on what the contract is and how his bat plays into his mid 30s. Current bat bogaerts, at any position, would easily be worth the 30-35m a year that top SSs are signing for now.

Bogaerts was good for an OPS+ of 127 last year, and 128 the year before. Interestingly, there's a free agent with the same lifetime OPS+ of Boegarts, for the same number of seasons. Though his is one year older.

Odd that I don't see people clamoring to throw $30-35M at Nick Castellanos.

Manramsclan · Mar 16, 2022

Really makes you wonder if signing Correa and trading X is the direction they decide to go. I don't think it is, because there would be a lot of moving parts and it would be out of character to give a player a huge FA contract for this current FO but a case could be made. Correa's relative youth and better defensive profile would upgrade that side of the IF considerably, and the team as well for the next few years. He also has a bat that would profile at other positions down the road as he ages and if he already got his huge contract he would likely be more amenable to moving since it won't effect his bank account.

All of this would make me sick because I love Xander, but from a baseball and business perspective would really make sense to make this team a competitor in the short and long term.

scottyno · Mar 16, 2022

Rovin Romine said:
Bogaerts was good for an OPS+ of 127 last year, and 128 the year before. Interestingly, there's a free agent with the same lifetime OPS+ of Boegarts, for the same number of seasons. Though his is one year older.

Odd that I don't see people clamoring to throw $30-35M at Nick Castellanos.

Maybe because Bogaerts has consistently been worth 35m+ per value and Castellanos has been more like around 20m in value every year. Castellanos is terrible in the field at any position, there's no reason to think Bogaerts would be.

OCD SS · Mar 16, 2022

This was the off-season for the Sox to address their SS defense; I was hoping Baez would be the one to be left without a seat, but maybe they can get Story to fill a short term SS-2B slot while at hey figure it out.

There is no reason to worry about extending X. Let him play out his season and see where things stand. His market is unlikely to go up.

Minneapolis Millers · Apr 7, 2022

I love X. Irrationally so, I think. But I want him to sign for something between J.Ramirez’s deal and 7/$175M. If he’s looking for and gets more than that, fine. If we don’t offer something in that range, and he gets slightly more, bad on us. If he blows us off but signs ultimately for something less, then F you, thanks for the memories.

Yelling At Clouds · Apr 7, 2022

Something that I didn’t think about re: Bogaerts until recently is that if he opts out of his contract after this season, then it’s entirely possible if not likely that the best available FA shortstop will be… Carlos Correa again.

DeadlySplitter · Apr 7, 2022

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/33692496/shortstop-xander-bogaerts-boston-red-sox-remain-odds-contract-ahead-season-opener

Boston offered Bogaerts an extension during the offseason, but the 29-year-old turned down the offer. According to team sources, Bogaerts asked for a contract that paid him in line with the game's highest-paid shortstops: Carlos Correa (who makes $35.1 million with the Minnesota Twins), Francisco Lindor (who makes $34.1 million with the New York Mets) and Corey Seager (who makes $33 million with the Texas Rangers).

The Red Sox declined to match that request.

...

When asked about Bogaerts' future in Boston, one front-office official said the team remained open to bringing back the current leader of the Red Sox clubhouse but also stated that if Bogaerts has a strong 2022 season that drives up his price on the open market even further, it would lower the chances of the Red Sox signing him.

"We are not in the business of signing 10-year deals for a lot of money, because those contracts mostly do not work out well for teams," said the front-office member.

Rovin Romine · Apr 7, 2022

Prospects are volatile, but there's actually a non-zero chance something like this unfolds:

2022 - Xander SS, Story 2B, Devers 3B, Dalbec, 1B, JD DH
2023 - Story SS (probably league average defense in his age 30 year), Someone 2B, Devers 3B, Casas 1B, Dalbec DH.
2024 - Story/Mayer SS, Story/Yorke 2B, Binelas/Jordan 3B, Casas 1B, Dalbec DH.

It's possible they back the truck up for someone, and it's possible they deal prospects to address other weaknesses, but Xander and Devers are not defensive mainstays. A full year of development from their crop of 2024(ish) players may influence what kind of offer Xander and Devers get.

OCD SS · Apr 7, 2022

Correa, Lindor, Seager... one of these contracts is not like the others...

It's been interesting to hear pundits talk about Correa's deal as maybe representing a new paradigm for paying top tier FA talent, when really it's just the largest pillow contract that's ever been given out. The Twins are looking to get a good year with excess marginal value if he preforms well, and then he'll opt out. The Mets and Rangers are hoping for elite performance at the front (where they bank a good deal of excess value) with a manageable decline phase. Scherzer is a better example of basically paying closer to market value (say by WAR) over a short term deal.

If X is trying to get a yearly salary at this level, it gets tough. Would you pay him $140M over the next 4 years, likely to play 2B?

Bogaerts Does Not Seem Open to Moving off of SS

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