Ben Simmons wants out of Philadelphia

[JM3]

I wouldn't trade Maxey for Mitchell (I mean I would because I could flip Davion for more, but in terms of what I expect from their careers).

Maxey is over 2 years younger than Mitchell & already had a pretty decent rookie year.

When Davion was Maxey's age. He was taking a redshirt year after transferring from Auburn, where he averaged 3.7 points & 2.1 fouls per game.

I don't believe in Mitchell's 44.7% 3-point year - he shot 64.1% from the line.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

I wouldn't trade Maxey for Mitchell (I mean I would because I could flip Davion for more, but in terms of what I expect from their careers).

Maxey is over 2 years younger than Mitchell & already had a pretty decent rookie year.

When Davion was Maxey's age. He was taking a redshirt year after transferring from Auburn, where he averaged 3.7 points & 2.1 fouls per game.

I don't believe in Mitchell's 44.7% 3-point year - he shot 64.1% from the line.

A lot of players improve from the FT line with age too though. Check out Lonzo Ball.. There are lots of Lonzo like players in recent years where the 3 point sample size in college is bigger than the FT sample size. Sometimes twice as big or more.

What is more indictive of his future from 3 point range in the NBA? Shooting 65.7% from the FT line on 175 FTA or shooting 37.6% from 3 on 298 3PA? I'd say the latter.

Looking at someone's FT% might tell you if they can add a 3 point shot later in their career or improve from 3. I'm not sure it tells you much about a player who has already had success from 3 on a much bigger sample size. At some point you have to acknowledge the bigger sample size as being more predictive.

How is Lonzo Ball shooting 67.3% from the FT line in college in 98 FTA more predictive than him shooting 41.2% on 194 3PA? Can someone make the argument for me? I don't see it.

 

[Devizier]

The closest thing to fair value is Brogdon+.

The Levert leak has to be coming from the Pacers. The guy has played 47, 45, and 40 games the last three seasons.

 

[JM3]

Lonzo is weird. Weird looking shot. He's a career 56% free throw shooter even after last year's 78%. He also shot 3s poorly his 1st 2 years before shooting 38% the last 2 years.

Not really sure if you can say any of his shooting in college was particularly predictive? He's certainly not an elite shooter. I like Lonzo, though.

Re Davion, I wouldn't be shocked if he was a 38% 3 point shooter. I would be shocked if he's a 45% 3 point shooter.

Just outta idle curiosity matching best 3p% last year with college free throw %. Here is all 50 players who shot at least 40% 3s last year.

Spoiler

Joe Harris 72.2% (40.7% 3s)
Marcus Morris 66% (35.8% 3s)
Bobby Portis 73.7% (36.5% 3s)
Bryn Forbes 82.1% (43.5%)
Joe Ingles (Int) 73.9% (35.1%)
Seth Curry 82.7% (39.4%)
Kevin Durant 81.6% (40.4%)
Luke Kennard 86.7% (38.3%)
Michael Porter Jr. 77.8% (30%)
Cameron Payne 78.1% (35.9%)
Bogdan Bogdanović (Int) 80.1% (38.9%)
Reggie Jackson 75.3% (35.1%)
Desmond Bane 80.4% (43.3%)
Anfernee Simons N/A
Mikal Bridges 84.5% (40%)
Georges Niang 76.3% (37.5%)
Sterling Brown 77% (45.1%)
Wayne Ellington 80.9 (39.7%)
Stephen Curry 87.6% (41.2%)
Zach LaVine 69.1% (37.5%)
Alec Burks 80.4% (31.3%)
Gordon Hayward 82.4% (36.9%)
Khris Middleton 76.8% (32.1%)
Evan Fournier (Int) 75.9% (28.3%)
Mike Conley 69.4% (30.4%)
Jeff Green 70% (35.9%)
De'Anthony Melton 70.6% (28.4%)
Paul George 80.3% (39.6%)
Norman Powell 74.6% (31.4%)
Payton Pritchard 80% (37.9%)
Julius Randle 70.6% (16.7%)
Reggie Bullock 72% (38.7%)
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 75.2% (33.9%)
Maxi Kleber (Int) 83.4% (35.6%)
Carmelo Anthony 70.6% (33.7%)
Tyrese Haliburton 77.5% (42.6%)
Kent Bazemore 58.1% (33.4%)
Jamal Murray 78.3% (40.8%)
Duncan Robinson 86.4% (41.9%)
Danilo Gallinari (Int) 82.2% (34.9%)
Jalen Brunson 82% (39.3%)
Danny Green 84.5% (37.5%)
Nicolas Batum (Int) 76% (32.6%)
Kyrie Irving 90.1% (46.2%)
Lauri Markkanen 83.5% (42.3%)
C.J. McCollum 82.5% (37.7%)
R.J. Barrett 66.5% (30.8%)
Malik Monk 82.2% (39.7%)
Miles Bridges 77.6% (37.5%)
Nikola Vučević (Int) 75.6% (35.7%)

*The international stats include recent tournaments since they were in the league too because I was too lazy to extract. Shouldn't impact stats too much, though.

The only 1 who shot free throws worse than Davion in college?

Spoiler

KENT BAZEMORE

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Re Davion, I wouldn't be shocked if he was a 38% 3 point shooter. I would be shocked if he's a 45% 3 point shooter.

I'd be shocked if anyone was a 45% 3 point shooter considering that list is Steve Kerr and Steve Kerr only. I'd be shocked if Aaron Nesmith was a 52.2% 3 point shooter too.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/fg3_pct_career.html

I'd guess Banes and MPJ are in for some regression, Maybe even PP. It's hard to shoot over 40% every year from 3. There are 14-15 current players with career 3 point % over 40%.

I think all 3 are very good and I wouldn't be shocked if they shot around 40% for their careers but Banes and MPJ are currently at 43 and 44%.

 

[JM3]

Fair, I should have just said I wouldn't be surprised if he was a pretty good 3 point shooter but would be shocked if he's elite.

 

[benhogan]

If Philly waits to trade Simmons until January, what is Morey's downside other than a regular-season win or two?

 

[JM3]

If Philly waits to trade Simmons until January, what is Morey's downside other than a regular-season win or two?

Less wins, teams being less interested in trying to build around BS on the fly in the middle of the season when he's sat out for months.

I almost feel like if they're going to wait until January, they're better off waiting until next off season.

If the offers really are that untenable, holding out for something unexpected happening, or next off season when there are 0 free agents I guess makes sense. But there's definitely an opportunity cost the longer he sits out, & his stock isn't going to rise without playing.

 

[benhogan]

Less wins, teams being less interested in trying to build around BS on the fly in the middle of the season when he's sat out for months.

I almost feel like if they're going to wait until January, they're better off waiting until next off season.

Yea they wait for teams to underperform, injuries, desperation set in. More players become available to be moved after Dec 15th

I can't see Morey going for LeVert/Turner flotsam n jetsam

A regular-season win or 2 and $300K/game more in his owners pocket

 

[mauf]

A lot of players improve from the FT line with age too though. Check out Lonzo Ball.. There are lots of Lonzo like players in recent years where the 3 point sample size in college is bigger than the FT sample size. Sometimes twice as big or more.

What is more indictive of his future from 3 point range in the NBA? Shooting 65.7% from the FT line on 175 FTA or shooting 37.6% from 3 on 298 3PA? I'd say the latter.

Looking at someone's FT% might tell you if they can add a 3 point shot later in their career or improve from 3. I'm not sure it tells you much about a player who has already had success from 3 on a much bigger sample size. At some point you have to acknowledge the bigger sample size as being more predictive.

How is Lonzo Ball shooting 67.3% from the FT line in college in 98 FTA more predictive than him shooting 41.2% on 194 3PA? Can someone make the argument for me? I don't see it.

I believe the theory is that FT% isolates the shooting tool, whereas 3P% is in large part a function of how the team uses a player. (How open were the looks he got? How many 3s did he jack up as the shot clock was winding down? Etc.) So even if you have fewer FTAs than 3PAs, at least it’s a “clean” measure.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

If Philly waits to trade Simmons until January, what is Morey's downside other than a regular-season win or two?

If PHI gets off to a slow start, 80 quadrillion questions about what's going on with Ben?

 

[benhogan]

If PHI gets off to a slow start, 80 quadrillion questions about what's going on with Ben?

sign me & 28 other fan bases up for that!...but probably still doesn't move Morey one bit, he's not taking 50 cents on the dollar for a 3x All-Star signed on a 4yr deal

Plus if they really underperform because Ben isn't there then that's on Doc/Embiid. Maybe they will think next time before throwing someone under the bus after a playoff loss.

Embiid doesn't appear to be letting up on Simmons, so he'll be happy to take those questions

 

[sezwho]

sign me & 28 other fan bases up for that!...but probably still doesn't move Morey one bit, he's not taking 50 cents on the dollar for a 3x All-Star signed on a 4yr deal

Plus if they really underperform because Ben isn't there then that's on Doc/Embiid. Maybe they will think next time before throwing someone under the bus after a playoff loss.

Embiid doesn't appear to be letting up on Simmons, so he'll be happy to take those questions

As others have said, It also means Morey is kicking part of a season of Embiid away if he doesn’t blink. Not having even 66c/$ worth of Ben in assets into the season has a cost on top of the significant distractions

 

[benhogan]

As others have said, It also means Morey is kicking part of a season of Embiid away if he doesn’t blink. Not having even 66c/$ worth of Ben in assets into the season has a cost on top of the significant distractions

They are fine as long as they don't punt Embiid's playoff season.
Kicking 1-2 Oct-Dec games while playing Maxey shouldn't make Morey blink

IMO any deal offered now will be there in January

 

[Cesar Crespo]

As others have said, It also means Morey is kicking part of a season of Embiid away if he doesn’t blink. Not having even 66c/$ worth of Ben in assets into the season has a cost on top of the significant distractions

Not going to argue what 50 cents or 75 cents to the dollar is in regards to Ben Simmons, but some of the deals with lesser assets going back arguably make the 76ers a better team than they would be with Ben Simmons. They definitely make the team better than playing whoever replaces Simmons internally. It's also not necessarily whether you want Simmons vs Brogdon, it's more would you rather have Brogdon playing for 30 minutes or having those minutes be distributed among the likes of Thybulle, Maxey and Milton?

I could maybe see a trade where Indy moves Brogdon and LeVert for Simmons.

Philly gets Brogdon, LeVert
Indy gets Simmons, Hield, Davion Mitchell
Sac gets Turner, Maxey

Maybe Philly at least takes the phone call? I'd have to imagine the other teams would say yes, even if the Pacers did so begrudgingly. I think the Kings would be all over it and might have to give up a little more. Whether it's more to the 76ers or Pacers I don't know. Even if you hate Myles Turner, it's hard to say Sacramento wouldn't be an amazing fit for him.

 

[mauf]

What happened to Buddy Hield? He seemed like a useful piece a year ago. He’s 28, which isn’t young, but it seems could at least bounce back to his 2018-20 self.

I’m skeptical that the Kings will part with real assets (such as Fox) to unload Hield’s contract, but I’m basing that purely on stats — haven’t watched Hield play since before the pandemic.

 

[sezwho]

They are fine as long as they don't punt Embiid's playoff season.
Kicking 1-2 Oct-Dec games while playing Maxey shouldn't make Morey blink

IMO any deal offered now will be there in January

I guess that’s the bet.

Ultimately it’s about Morey weighing the downside risks of going into the season limping against the hope that a better deal appears.

If Ben is pining for the fjords while the Sixers struggle, I’m not sure what else appears on the table.

Perhaps there’s some chess here in that they model the likelihood of a franchise landscape altering injury, but maybe just checkers: all current deals are awful

 

[Cesar Crespo]

What happened to Buddy Hield? He seemed like a useful piece a year ago. He’s 28, which isn’t young, but it seems could at least bounce back to his 2018-20 self.

I’m skeptical that the Kings will part with real assets (such as Fox) to unload Hield’s contract, but I’m basing that purely on stats — haven’t watched Hield play since before the pandemic.

He had a slow start offensively and slipped defensively so people heavily focused on that. He can probably still be a useful piece in the right situation. The Kings are a nightmare when it comes to defense so it's hard to make much of anything. I'm sure Hield is part of the cause, but how much of the blame goes to him, I dunno.

 

[EvilEmpire]

As others have said, It also means Morey is kicking part of a season of Embiid away if he doesn’t blink. Not having even 66c/$ worth of Ben in assets into the season has a cost on top of the significant distractions

Maybe a shit return now, especially if it has to be pick heavy, which certainly won't help them this season, costs them games across the entire season whereas a little better return in December/January costs them a few games early that they make up in the second half because they got more talent/better fit back by waiting.

Edit: Morey and the rest of the organization is going to get second guessed no matter what. Safer to wait and at least have the widest range of potential options.

 

[JM3]

Not really sure where the 76ers are going to Make up 32 minutes per game.

Jumping Maxey from 15 to 26 = 11
Shake from 23 to 28 = 5
Thybulle from 20 to 25 = 5
Korkmaz from 19 to 23 = 4
Springer can have the other 7 minutes?

Drummond basically replaces Howard's minutes. Can't play with Embiid.

Idk, just seems like it's going to be a problem. Especially when Embiid doesn't play - his career high in games is 64.

 

[benhogan]

I guess that’s the bet.

Ultimately it’s about Morey weighing the downside risks of going into the season limping against the hope that a better deal appears.

If Ben is pining for the fjords while the Sixers struggle, I’m not sure what else appears on the table.

Perhaps there’s some chess here in that they model the likelihood of a franchise landscape altering injury, but maybe just checkers: all current deals are awful

Any player that was signed this summer is unavailable right now.

The player pool increases after Dec 15th.

Many teams would love Simmons but are handcuffed until then.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Not really sure where the 76ers are going to Make up 32 minutes per game.

Jumping Maxey from 15 to 26 = 11
Shake from 23 to 28 = 5
Thybulle from 20 to 25 = 5
Korkmaz from 19 to 23 = 4
Springer can have the other 7 minutes?

Drummond basically replaces Howard's minutes. Can't play with Embiid.

Idk, just seems like it's going to be a problem. Especially when Embiid doesn't play - his career high in games is 64.

The cascade effect of losing 1 starting quality player and replacing it with nothing is huge. We saw it with Gordon Hayward. Evan Fournier isn't Gordon Hayward but the C's were much better when the acquired him.

Add in the fact that injuries happen, and you are using the 14th and 15th player on a semi regular basis. They also can't replace Simmons roster spot, though I guess they could just suit up a G League player... not much better.

 

[benhogan]

Not really sure where the 76ers are going to Make up 32 minutes per game.

Jumping Maxey from 15 to 26 = 11
Shake from 23 to 28 = 5
Thybulle from 20 to 25 = 5
Korkmaz from 19 to 23 = 4
Springer can have the other 7 minutes?

Drummond basically replaces Howard's minutes. Can't play with Embiid.

Idk, just seems like it's going to be a problem. Especially when Embiid doesn't play - his career-high in games is 64.

Milton Maxey will share ballhandling duties. Thybulle is a good defender he'll play more

Clearly a downgrade. But at least they'll shoot. The minutes may increase those 3 trade values and it would be for 3 months

I just don't see Morey hitting the panic button and getting Pritch slapped. Adding Myles Turner would be a lesser version of the Embiid/Horford horror show

 

[lexrageorge]

Morey will have no problem waiting until December to make a trade. No need to overthink it.

 

[JM3]

Milton Maxey will share ballhandling duties. Thybulle is a good defender he'll play more

Clearly a downgrade. But at least they'll shoot. The minutes may increase those 3 trade values and it would be for 3 months

I just don't see Morey hitting the panic button and getting Pritch slapped. Adding Myles Turner would be a lesser version of the Embiid/Horford horror show

Thybulle is a good defender - but he shoots both less & worse than Simmons, & he's not as good of a defender.

Shake/Maxey will shoot, but not that efficiently & with Embiid/Harris/Curry meh efficiency scoring isn't a huge need. Neither has been a plus outside shooter, yet. Neither is an exceptional passer.

They have some really big holes right now. I don't disagree that they'll wait if the offers are absolutely terrible, but they could really suffer recordwise.

 

[benhogan]

Thybulle is a good defender - but he shoots both less & worse than Simmons, & he's not as good of a defender.

Shake/Maxey will shoot, but not that efficiently & with Embiid/Harris/Curry meh efficiency scoring isn't a huge need. Neither has been a plus outside shooter, yet. Neither is an exceptional passer.

They have some really big holes right now. I don't disagree that they'll wait if the offers are absolutely terrible, but they could really suffer recordwise.

Yea it is a big hole. Ben Simmons is a good player, that's what we've been debating for weeks. It's also the first 3mths of a long NBA regular season. Philly will survive, maybe a couple of games worse.

If they are really bad record-wise, without him, Morey could make an argument that BS is very undervalued. He'd probably be able to convince 1 of 29 to agree with him by January

 

[Euclis20]

Philly will be fine in the regular season without Simmons, until Embiid takes his annual 20 game injury break. Without their two stars, Philly is a mid-level lottery team at best. They could pile up the losses quickly.

 

[johnmd20]

Philly will be fine in the regular season without Simmons, until Embiid takes his annual 20 game injury break. Without their two stars, Philly is a mid-level lottery team at best. They could pile up the losses quickly.

How many teams would be great if they lost their two best players? How would Milwaukee be without Giannis and Khris?

 

[benhogan]

Philly will be fine in the regular season without Simmons, until Embiid takes his annual 20 game injury break. Without their two stars, Philly is a mid-level lottery team at best. They could pile up the losses quickly.

Agreed, every team is a lottery team without their top 2 players.

Still don't see that forcing Morey's hand

 

[Swedgin]

Apologies if this was already posted, but this Philly Voice story got a lot of traction on NBA twitter last night:

Despite assurances through various media members of note, a league source says the financial significance of holding out is starting to take hold in Ben Simmons' camp.

After being fined for missing Philadelphia's preseason loss to the Toronto Raptors on Monday night — a penalty of roughly $360,000 — Simmons' representation had another discussion with the players association in which it was reiterated they would be unable to recoup the money being deducted from the $8.25 million sitting in escrow, sources say, and it was communicated to the Sixers that these early fines were perhaps higher than they expected.

I appreciated the shot at Windhorst, who has been carrying a whole lot of water for Klutch in his podcasting and reporting about the Simmons saga and has beat the "Simmons will get his money" drum loudly.

 

[sezwho]

Any player that was signed this summer is unavailable right now.

The player pool increases after Dec 15th.

Many teams would love Simmons but are handcuffed until then.

Thanks for highlighting, that might well inform a choice for the Sixers to stand pat until then

 

[Euclis20]

How many teams would be great if they lost their two best players? How would Milwaukee be without Giannis and Khris?

Agreed, every team is a lottery team without their top 2 players.

Still don't see that forcing Morey's hand

That's kind of the point though. They're already down one (apparently), and the other is the most injury prone superstar in the league (maybe 2nd to Kawhi). Can't say that about the Bucks, or any other playoff level team. It's easy to say the Sixers can afford to wait until December or the trade deadline because it's just the regular season and losing a few extra games won't hurt them, but when Embiid misses his usual quarter of the season (maybe more if he's shouldering a bigger load than normal with Simmons out), the Sixers could easily drop to the play in games, or out of the playoffs entirely. That's the danger of waiting.

I agree that I don't see this forcing Morey's hand, but it's far from a given that this Sixers team without Simmons (or 50-75% of his trade equivalent) finishes with a top 6 team in the east.

 

[Tony C]

Euclis is very convincing. The pressure is going to mount on Morey very quickly were Embiid to get injured...and that's not an unlikely event.

If Philly starts losing and fans start (er...continue?) boo-ing, I think that's easier to ignore in a fantasy basketball bubble than in real life. It's not like Morey has so much cred that he's insulated from fan pressure. He's not the BB of the NFL or the Pat Riley of the NBA; he's a smartest guy in the room type who has had problems getting his teams over the hump and has made some distinctly awful moves recently -- not acquiring Harden and the Paul/Westbrook moves, specifically.

If it's late Nov and Embiid is hobbling and Simmons is home and the 76ers are struggling for the #8 seed..would you feel secure if you're in his shoes that it was worth waiting until December for the unlikely event that Beal or his ilk all of a sudden are available? I get why that's the smart move in a bubble; but if a more immediate option comes open that is 85 cents on the $, that has to be tempting.

 

[lexrageorge]

Looking at the schedule, Philly plays 31 games on or before 12/15. Grouping their opponents into tiers of difficulty, you can see it's moderately difficult, and it does include a long western trip through Utah, Denver, Portland, Sacramento and San Francisco. And there is another game against the Nets on 12/16 that I did not include.

Tier 1, 5 games: Nets, Bucks, Jazz (2), Denver,

Tier 2, 13 games: NYK (2), Hawks (2), Blazers (2), Raptors, Pacers, Kings, Warriors (2), Celtics, Heat

Tier 3, 11 games: NO, Pistons (2), Bulls (2), OKC, TWolves, Magic, Hornets (2), Memphis

Still, if Embiid is available for 20-25 of those games, the Sixers should be able to stay around 0.500 or so. If not, they do have a problem, but I can see Morey waiting for as long as he can. I doubt very much the trade market for a Simmons will dry up after opening night, and by 12/15 other teams will have their needs and injuries as well.

 

[EvilEmpire]

Is Morey being offered anything right now that would change the trajectory of the team if Embiid gets injured early? Maybe he is, but I doubt it.

The Sixers are vulnerable if Embiid gets injured. Simmons isn't coming back and they almost certainly aren't getting a player as good as he is, even with his flaws. Picks aren't going to help much. I don't think picks and the pu pu platter are going to rescue the Sixers if Embiid goes down for anything serious.

Hell, a serious injury might take some pressure off of Morey because a lost season could become a reality no matter what he does. The fans will blame Simmons anyway.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Hell, a serious injury might take some pressure off of Morey because a lost season could become a reality no matter what he does. The fans will blame Simmons anyway.

That's probably what Sam Hinkie would do - take this opportunity to rest up Embiid; let Simmons sit another season; grab a top 5 pick; and Trust the Process.

 

[Van Everyman]

Edit: Bad comment

 

[Cesar Crespo]

I’m just glad @LondonSox isn’t alive to see this.

Are they confirmed dead or did they just leave SoSH?

 

[EvilEmpire]

I’m just glad @LondonSox isn’t alive to see this.

The guy had some issues. I have no idea if he is alive or dead, but one way to make sure you never log into SOSH again is to make jokes like that.

 

[Van Everyman]

Oh jeez, I wasn’t trying to imply he’s actually dead. Just that he was a Sixers diehard who left SoSH. I’ll take it down.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

FWIW, I took him to be referring to LondonSox' SoSH life (which is fair commentary, imo) rather than his actual physical one (which I agree would be inappropriate and unkind)

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Oh jeez, I wasn’t trying to imply he’s actually dead. Just that he was a Sixers diehard who left SoSH. I’ll take it down.

I'm just familiar with the poster and saw his last 2 posts. The last of which says nothing more than "Good bye." His 2nd to last post is in the depression thread.

 

[Van Everyman]

Oh god, I’m so sorry. That was not my intention at all.

 

[EvilEmpire]

Oh god, I’m so sorry. That was not my intention at all.

Thanks, we appreciate that.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Is Morey being offered anything right now that would change the trajectory of the team if Embiid gets injured early? Maybe he is, but I doubt it.

The Sixers are vulnerable if Embiid gets injured. Simmons isn't coming back and they almost certainly aren't getting a player as good as he is, even with his flaws. Picks aren't going to help much. I don't think picks and the pu pu platter are going to rescue the Sixers if Embiid goes down for anything serious.

Hell, a serious injury might take some pressure off of Morey because a lost season could become a reality no matter what he does. The fans will blame Simmons anyway.

Possible, but could go the other way. In part because fans ALWAYS think their team is gonna get a ransom so a vocal part of the fanbase is going to be saying... "Morey's ego kept him from trading for (player x) and he wasted a season of Embiid's prime" There would also be a bunch of "Morey is just trying to cover his ass after he wouldn't trade that bum Simmons for Harden"! in the mix.

 

[benhogan]

Whenever Morey does trade Simmons, he'll definitely be selling low. I'd say Ben's value has never been lower over the last 4yrs.

Must be crushing their front office

 

[Jimbodandy]

Whenever Morey does trade Simmons, he'll definitely be selling low. I'd say Ben's value has never been lower over the last 4yrs.

Must be crushing their front office

Well he's getting older and not a lick better. His value would be declining even if he weren't holding out.

 

[Swedgin]

Well he's getting older and not a lick better. His value would be declining even if he weren't holding out.

All trades involve internal and external leverage. Internal = we are happy to keep player x on our roster. External = other suitors and/or the potential trader partner's internal considerations (e.g. the Lakers trading for AD were strongly motivated by Lebron's age and/or Klutch not to simply wait for AD to hit FA and waste a year of Lebron prime/post-prime).

The hold out impacts on Philly's internal leverage to a degree. I doubt other GM's gave much credence to Morey's assurances that he was happy to keep Simmons on the roster even before the public trade demand. However, the hold out/demand remove even that fig leaf. So it then becomes a question of timing. Simmons hold out is an effort not just to remove Morey's internal leverage, but to create internal pressure to make a deal. This thread has gone back and forth on the efficacy of that strategy.

The real challenge for the Sixers is the relative absence of external leverage. There does not appear a robust market for Simmons' services at the moment. Does anyone here think that if Dame, Tatum. Jaylen, Booker etc. made a public trade demand, that the Blazers, Celts, Suns etc. would not have multiple really good to great offers on the table almost immediately?

Morey's betting his external leverage will improve with the passage of time. As has been discussed, the rules allow more players to traded come December. Likewise, other teams may feel internal pressure to get Simmons once the season gets underway.

 

[Jimbodandy]

All trades involve internal and external leverage. Internal = we are happy to keep player x on our roster. External = other suitors and/or the potential trader partner's internal considerations (e.g. the Lakers trading for AD were strongly motivated by Lebron's age and/or Klutch not to simply wait for AD to hit FA and waste a year of Lebron prime/post-prime).

The hold out impacts on Philly's internal leverage to a degree. I doubt other GM's gave much credence to Morey's assurances that he was happy to keep Simmons on the roster even before the public trade demand. However, the hold out/demand remove even that fig leaf. So it then becomes a question of timing. Simmons will hold out is an effort not just to remove Morey's internal leverage, but to create internal pressure to make a deal. This thread has gone back and forth on the efficacy of that strategy.

The real challenge for the Sixers is the relative absence of external leverage. There does not appear a robust market for Simmons' services at the moment. Does anyone here think that if Dame, Tatum. Jaylen, Booker etc. made a public trade demand, that the Blazers, Celts, Suns etc. would not have multiple really good to great offers on the table almost immediately?

Morey's betting his external leverage will improve with the passage of time. As has been discussed, the rules allow more players to traded come December. Likewise, other teams may feel internal pressure to get Simmons once the season gets underway.

Morey has motivation to make a deal now obviously. So if he isn't, the current offers are shit. I'm wicked bearish on Ben, but he’s way too good of a player to take garbage back just because of a busted situation.

Some are arguing that it can get worse. If Philly starts poorly, the oressure to do something ratchets up. That's a fair pov. But it can also get better. If another team with expectations starts slowly, especially if their sitting GM is on the hot seat, things could open up. And in December, the pool of potential players in return increases substantially, as you note.

Whole thing is dicey and fascinating.

 

[benhogan]

Morey has motivation to make a deal now obviously. So if he isn't, the current offers are shit. I'm wicked bearish on Ben, but he’s way too good of a player to take garbage back just because of a busted situation.

Some are arguing that it can get worse. If Philly starts poorly, the oressure to do something ratchets up. That's a fair pov. But it can also get better. If another team with expectations starts slowly, especially if their sitting GM is on the hot seat, things could open up. And in December, the pool of potential players in return increases substantially, as you note.

Whole thing is dicey and fascinating.

It is especially fascinating since it's a continuation of the 76ers soap opera.

Every NBA team is in lollipops and unicorn euphoria at the moment. All NBA teams have some sort of title/playoffs/play-in game aspirations.

We'll get reality, underperformance, injuries, & GM desperation by the winter solstice. Then the idea of changing the narrative by adding a young All-Star will seem more attractive.