Well, the Yankees are all in now on A-Rod getting suspended for the full year. Either that, or they never had any intention of staying under the cap.
They are now at $209,500,000 for 13 players under contract. They are getting about $36,500,000 back from other teams for Soriano and Wells. That's $173 million. With $10.8 required for benefits, and the need to pay their arbitration and players under contract, they are over without signing anyone else. There's really nobody they can trade to get salary relief from the 13 signed. Even if A-Rod is suspended for half the year, I don't know if they can stay under. Heck, they may not stay under even if he stays suspended for the whole year.
As an aside, a lawyer friend who has some experience in the area was telling me that he was surprised by how good A-Rod's complaint is in his lawsuit. He said he assumed that because A-Rod is a raving lunatic and his lawyers must be the same, but he said the complaint is really well written, surprisingly articulate, and might actually get some traction despite its conspiracy theory vibe. I would think the combination of the Yankees making repeated public statements about getting under the cap, and then blowing it away before the arbitrator's ruling comes down, certainly isn't going to hurt their argument that this is a big conspiracy designed to give the Yankees relief and keep the league's biggest market team happy.