Bellinger, Benintendi, or Gallo?

[jon abbey]

OK, so this is a poll solely to determine which of these three you think will end up with the most bWAR in 2023. Contract size and fit on the team are irrelevant for this, I'm just curious to see what people think in a vacuum and compare it to results after the season.

 

[jon abbey]

Also it would be more prudent to wait until you see what teams they end up on, but don't do that, vote now.

 

[jon abbey]

Some info maybe not everyone knows:

Benintendi seemed to have lost most of his power already last year (5 HRs in 461 ABs) and then his Sept injury was a broken hamate bone in his wrist, and usually it takes a year or more to get back power after that injury. Also he is the worst defender of those three, as well as the least positionally flexible, but he still will almost certainly end up with the biggest deal of the three.

 

[mikeford]

Provided he doesn't end up back in NYC, I think it'll be Gallo.

 

[SemperFidelisSox]

Bellinger still gives you Gold Glove caliber defense, and Roto Baller has his wOBA increasing by 14 points with the shift ban.

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

So what actually happened to Bellinger? How do you go from an MVP caliber player to the depths he’s plunged to? Did he suffer a career destroying major injury ?

 

[simplicio]

Bellinger still gives you Gold Glove caliber defense, and Roto Baller has his wOBA increasing by 14 points with the shift ban.

Does he though? He certainly did his MVP year, but it's looked much more pedestrian since.

 

[koufax32]

So what actually happened to Bellinger? How do you go from an MVP caliber player to the depths he’s plunged to? Did he suffer a career destroying major injury ?

His right shoulder is shot after repeated dislocations/subluxations.

https://www.mlb.com/news/cody-bellinger-right-shoulder-surgery

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

His right shoulder is shot after repeated dislocations/subluxations.

https://www.mlb.com/news/cody-bellinger-right-shoulder-surgery

Thanks … I vote for Beni. Mind you, I don’t want any of them on the Red Sox.

 

[jon abbey]

This is a more recent article on Bellinger, pretty interesting. The shoulder was the first problem, but it seems like the real problem was a leg fracture and then an inability to fully trust his own leg strength, messing up his mechanics.

https://www.prospectslive.com/prospects-live/2022/10/20/the-downfall-and-possible-resurrection-of-cody-bellinger

 

[Sad Sam Jones]

Benintendi might still rank 3rd among them in potential, but I pick him, because through either injury or performance, he's the only one I'd feel comfortable predicting 100 games from next year.

 

[Blizzard of 1978]

Gallo because he walks a lot and still has power.

 

[jon abbey]

One thing we know for sure is that Gallo is by far the healthiest, his issues have been of the 'forgot how to hit baseballs' variety. He had just a 0.2 bWAR last year in 350 ABs despite very good defense as always, plus 19 HRs and a ton of walks as Blizzard said, but his teams (NYY then LAD) were still somehow an almost impossible 74-29 when he started, that's a 116-46 pace.

Oh, and he had 163 Ks in 350 ABs (!!!!). LAD did not give him a single AB in their 4 game NLDS loss to SD, Bellinger started the first two games and went 1-6 (a single) with 4 Ks.

 

[mikeford]

His right shoulder is shot after repeated dislocations/subluxations.

https://www.mlb.com/news/cody-bellinger-right-shoulder-surgery

Same thing that happened to Adrian Gonzalez IIRC

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Gallo is a career .199 hitter, he’s gotten worse in recent years but he’s never been one to make much contact. Benintendi seems like the best bet of the three given that he makes a lot more contact; of course he has the least power and perhaps the lowest perceived ceiling- but feels like his floor is a lot higher.

 

[Max Power]

Gallo is a career .199 hitter, he’s gotten worse in recent years but he’s never been one to make much contact. Benintendi seems like the best bet of the three given that he makes a lot more contact; of course he has the least power and perhaps the lowest perceived ceiling- but feels like his floor is a lot higher.

If I'm doing my Baseball-Reference Stathead searching right, Gallo could be the second position player in baseball history to finish his career with a batting average below .200 and more than 2500 plate appearances.

 

[Pablo's TB Lover]

Bellinger has the highest ceiling but I'm not sure if he'll make up the 2+ WAR difference between him and Benintendi this next season, so I voted Beni.

 

[streeter88]

Do the stats go to the second decimal? Seconding that we don't want any of them on the Red Sox in 2023. Even JBJ would be better.

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

Floor v. ceiling. I’d give Beni the highest floor because he can actually make contact more than once a week. Bellinger’s MVP gives him the ceiling. If we’re talking relatively low $ amounts, I’d take the risk with Bellinger. But I’d check the medicals 2 or 3 times!

 

[iddoc]

Do the stats go to the second decimal? Seconding that we don't want any of them on the Red Sox in 2023. Even JBJ would be better.

As much as I admired JBJ 2015-2020, I find it hard to believe that in 2023 he will be better than Benintendi who, as others have pointed out, has a higher floor than all of these guys. It would mean Verdugo in RF, however, unless he is replaced.

 

[streeter88]

As much as I admired JBJ 2015-2020, I find it hard to believe that in 2023 he will be better than Benintendi who, as others have pointed out, has a higher floor than all of these guys. It would mean Verdugo in RF, however, unless he is replaced.

Sorry I wasn’t clear. I don’t want any of them - nor do I want JBJ - on the Sox in 2023. I was just making the point that I think none of them will be even replacement level, and using JBJ as a modern Mendoza.

 

[Blizzard of 1978]

I will say Gallo did make the All-Star team in 2021, and I have a few Los Angeles Dodgers relative fans who have followed the Dodgers for decades and told me Bellinger is toast. They were happy he was let go.
So, with that info they gave me I will take Gallo. Gallo is not injured.
Respectfully, Ron

 

[OCD SS]

This is interesting for being a bad choice all around. I’d normally take Bennie, but I expect the hamate injury to really sap his BA. Gallo has the worst numbers of the 3 when he’s supposedly healthy, but still declining… that leaves Bellinger, who has the highest ceiling of the 3, and he’s now (going to be) playing on a make good contract, so I’m betting on Boras contract year magic.

 

[Blizzard of 1978]

A few more observations about Gallo. His war was 4.2 in 2021. Made the All- Star team. He has also more walks than Bennie in much less at bats in 2022, plus hit 19 bombs, while Bennie hit 5. Also Gallo is a great fielder and a arm. 6 foot 5. Could make a similar debate with Gallo vs Bellinger. Like why did the Dodgers trade for Gallo when they had Bellinger? I think Gallo is a sleeper good player this year.
One thing though Scott Boras is his agent like Bellinger, so this is going to be a very interesting off- season.
Respectfully, Ron.

 

[jon abbey]

This makes absolutely no sense, so hopefully someone reports it better at some point.

“But Benintendi was lost for the season with a fractured hamate bone — an injury that flummoxed the Yankees, since he’d had the injury previously and it’s typically fixed by removing the bone — making it nearly impossible to return.”

https://nypost.com/2022/11/28/yankees-could-have-andrew-benintendi-competition-from-astros/?utm_campaign=iphone_nyp&utm_source=pasteboard_app

 

[jon abbey]

All three of these guys are signed now, all to Central teams. Looks like according to collective SoSH, the Cubs got the best deal, but I’ll bump this in the future if I remember (anyone else is welcome to also, of course).

Benintendi 5/75 (CHW)
Bellinger 1/17.5 (CHC)
Gallo 1/11 (MIN)

 

[jon abbey]

Benintendi looks totally cooked, he hasn’t hit a ball 300 feet yet this season.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/andrew-benintendi-643217?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Benintendi looks totally cooked, he hasn’t hit a ball 300 feet all season.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/andrew-benintendi-643217?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

Meanwhile, on the other side of town, they're pretty happy with Bellinger.