Bellinger, Benintendi, or Gallo?

Which of these three will have the most bWAR in 2023?


  • Total voters
    175
  • Poll closed .

jon abbey

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OK, so this is a poll solely to determine which of these three you think will end up with the most bWAR in 2023. Contract size and fit on the team are irrelevant for this, I'm just curious to see what people think in a vacuum and compare it to results after the season.
 

jon abbey

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Also it would be more prudent to wait until you see what teams they end up on, but don't do that, vote now.
 

jon abbey

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Some info maybe not everyone knows:

Benintendi seemed to have lost most of his power already last year (5 HRs in 461 ABs) and then his Sept injury was a broken hamate bone in his wrist, and usually it takes a year or more to get back power after that injury. Also he is the worst defender of those three, as well as the least positionally flexible, but he still will almost certainly end up with the biggest deal of the three.
 

Sad Sam Jones

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May 5, 2017
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Benintendi might still rank 3rd among them in potential, but I pick him, because through either injury or performance, he's the only one I'd feel comfortable predicting 100 games from next year.
 

jon abbey

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One thing we know for sure is that Gallo is by far the healthiest, his issues have been of the 'forgot how to hit baseballs' variety. He had just a 0.2 bWAR last year in 350 ABs despite very good defense as always, plus 19 HRs and a ton of walks as Blizzard said, but his teams (NYY then LAD) were still somehow an almost impossible 74-29 when he started, that's a 116-46 pace.

Oh, and he had 163 Ks in 350 ABs (!!!!). LAD did not give him a single AB in their 4 game NLDS loss to SD, Bellinger started the first two games and went 1-6 (a single) with 4 Ks.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Jan 13, 2021
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Gallo is a career .199 hitter, he’s gotten worse in recent years but he’s never been one to make much contact. Benintendi seems like the best bet of the three given that he makes a lot more contact; of course he has the least power and perhaps the lowest perceived ceiling- but feels like his floor is a lot higher.
 

Max Power

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Jul 20, 2005
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Gallo is a career .199 hitter, he’s gotten worse in recent years but he’s never been one to make much contact. Benintendi seems like the best bet of the three given that he makes a lot more contact; of course he has the least power and perhaps the lowest perceived ceiling- but feels like his floor is a lot higher.
If I'm doing my Baseball-Reference Stathead searching right, Gallo could be the second position player in baseball history to finish his career with a batting average below .200 and more than 2500 plate appearances.
 

Pablo's TB Lover

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Sep 10, 2017
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Bellinger has the highest ceiling but I'm not sure if he'll make up the 2+ WAR difference between him and Benintendi this next season, so I voted Beni.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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Jul 15, 2005
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Floor v. ceiling. I’d give Beni the highest floor because he can actually make contact more than once a week. Bellinger’s MVP gives him the ceiling. If we’re talking relatively low $ amounts, I’d take the risk with Bellinger. But I’d check the medicals 2 or 3 times!
 

iddoc

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Nov 17, 2006
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Do the stats go to the second decimal? Seconding that we don't want any of them on the Red Sox in 2023. Even JBJ would be better.
As much as I admired JBJ 2015-2020, I find it hard to believe that in 2023 he will be better than Benintendi who, as others have pointed out, has a higher floor than all of these guys. It would mean Verdugo in RF, however, unless he is replaced.
 

streeter88

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Apr 2, 2006
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As much as I admired JBJ 2015-2020, I find it hard to believe that in 2023 he will be better than Benintendi who, as others have pointed out, has a higher floor than all of these guys. It would mean Verdugo in RF, however, unless he is replaced.
Sorry I wasn’t clear. I don’t want any of them - nor do I want JBJ - on the Sox in 2023. I was just making the point that I think none of them will be even replacement level, and using JBJ as a modern Mendoza.
 

Blizzard of 1978

@drballs
Sep 12, 2022
503
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I will say Gallo did make the All-Star team in 2021, and I have a few Los Angeles Dodgers relative fans who have followed the Dodgers for decades and told me Bellinger is toast. They were happy he was let go.
So, with that info they gave me I will take Gallo. Gallo is not injured.
Respectfully, Ron
 

OCD SS

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This is interesting for being a bad choice all around. I’d normally take Bennie, but I expect the hamate injury to really sap his BA. Gallo has the worst numbers of the 3 when he’s supposedly healthy, but still declining… that leaves Bellinger, who has the highest ceiling of the 3, and he’s now (going to be) playing on a make good contract, so I’m betting on Boras contract year magic.
 

Blizzard of 1978

@drballs
Sep 12, 2022
503
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A few more observations about Gallo. His war was 4.2 in 2021. Made the All- Star team. He has also more walks than Bennie in much less at bats in 2022, plus hit 19 bombs, while Bennie hit 5. Also Gallo is a great fielder and a arm. 6 foot 5. Could make a similar debate with Gallo vs Bellinger. Like why did the Dodgers trade for Gallo when they had Bellinger? I think Gallo is a sleeper good player this year.
One thing though Scott Boras is his agent like Bellinger, so this is going to be a very interesting off- season.
Respectfully, Ron.
 
Last edited:

jon abbey

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jon abbey

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All three of these guys are signed now, all to Central teams. Looks like according to collective SoSH, the Cubs got the best deal, but I’ll bump this in the future if I remember (anyone else is welcome to also, of course).

Benintendi 5/75 (CHW)
Bellinger 1/17.5 (CHC)
Gallo 1/11 (MIN)
 

jon abbey

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So Bellinger was clearly, far and away, the best choice here.
 

azsoxpatsfan

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May 23, 2014
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I’m personally loving the Bellinger comeback story. Insane that this poll seemed so reasonable at the start of the year, and now comparing Cody to Benny and Gallo is almost exactly the same by WAR as comparing Matt Olson to Pablo Reyes and Javi Baez
 

ehaz

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Sep 30, 2007
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Looks like the biggest thing for Bellinger's bounceback at the plate is cutting his K% all the way down to 16%, which is a personal best for him and in line with his MVP season. Last two years he was comfortably above 25%.

His batted ball data is very weird though. Bellinger's average exit velocity (19th percentile), barrel % (28th percentile), and hard hit rate (9th percentile) are all career worsts. Based on that batted ball data, his xwOBA is basically league average, but he's still producing like one of the best hitters in baseball.

I love his comeback story too so I'm hoping this isn't all smoke and mirrors, but I would be very nervous to be the GM that hands him his next contract. Nightengale suggested that Bellinger will be the biggest free agent after Ohtani and could get $200M and even approach $300M.
 

moondog80

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Sep 20, 2005
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Yeah, good for Bellinger but I would not want my team to be the highest bidder in the "is this for real?" auction.
 

simplicio

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Especially not us, his bat seems like a really poor fit for Fenway. Statcast has it suppressing 30% of his HR this year.