BEAT L.A. (The Gamethread)

E5 Yaz

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The Rays have to figure out a way to put an extended rally together or they won't get to Game 7
 

VORP Speed

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Roberts just announced that Tony Gonsolin will start game 6


Cc @VORP Speed
Yes. The non-Kershaw/Buehler games are the ones where the Rays should have an advantage. Not that it matters so much since they just need to win 2 games now, but from the beginning it seemed like they needed to win all the non-Kershaw/Buehler games and then figure out how to take 1 from Kershaw/Buehler.
 

terrynever

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Amazing that some relief pitchers are wearing down in postseason after just 60 games in regular season. These playoffs are tough with so few off-days. But I do wonder how Cash can manage his bullpen this way for 162 games and then the playoffs.
 

joe dokes

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Amazing that some relief pitchers are wearing down in postseason after just 60 games in regular season. These playoffs are tough with so few off-days. But I do wonder how Cash can manage his bullpen this way for 162 games and then the playoffs.
Not trying to be a wise-guy here, but if it was a 162-game season, he'd probably manage differently. Whether it would lead to a pennant is another issue.
 

jon abbey

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Amazing that some relief pitchers are wearing down in postseason after just 60 games in regular season. These playoffs are tough with so few off-days. But I do wonder how Cash can manage his bullpen this way for 162 games and then the playoffs.
Some of it is seeing the same pitchers 4 times in a week, that definitely helps the hitters.
 

E5 Yaz

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Some of it is seeing the same pitchers 4 times in a week, that definitely helps the hitters.
Yeah, this is the potential fatal flaw for teams w/o a deep rotation. Glasnow and Morton just haven't come through in this series, which over-exposes even a good bullpen.

Of course, if the Rays can;'t find a way to put up a crooked number, it won't matter
 

terrynever

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Not trying to be a wise-guy here, but if it was a 162-game season, he'd probably manage differently. Whether it would lead to a pennant is another issue.
Yes, that was my inner message, not conveyed properly. Did this 60-game sprint benefit the Rays? (Just stirring up VORP.)
 

jon abbey

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Good point. Of course, Yankee hitters saw the Rays in 10 games before September. And five more in October.
I think scouting is some of it, NY dominated AL East teams in 2019 (54-22) in part because of their thorough scouting, but in-person scouting was basically non-existent this year so NY lost that advantage. TB seemed completely prepared for NY all season this year, but it's much harder to prepare for the Dodgers who they didn't see all year.
 

terrynever

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I think scouting is some of it, NY dominated AL East teams in 2019 (54-22) in part because of their thorough scouting, but in-person scouting was basically non-existent this year so NY lost that advantage. TB seemed completely prepared for NY all season this year, but it's much harder to prepare for the Dodgers who they didn't see all year.
I agree there is a familiarity among division rivals, even in a pandemic season. But the Rays annually seem to scrape up two or three pitchers from the junk pile who add quality depth to their bullpen, at little cost.
Can the Yankees learn anything from Tampa’s roster-building strategy? Will Cashman use their success to change his model for shoring up bullpens? Are the Yankees seeing prospects through the prism of starting pitchers and not converting them sooner to the bullpen?
Cashman has done well finding gems among position player junk piles but his super bullpen scheme fell apart this season due to injuries and ineffectiveness.
I’m just watching this WS to see how the Rays can be beaten. Because next year they will add Wander Franco to the mix and beating Tampa will get even harder. Break up the Rays!
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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I agree there is a familiarity among division rivals, even in a pandemic season. But the Rays annually seem to scrape up two or three pitchers from the junk pile who add quality depth to their bullpen, at little cost.
Can the Yankees learn anything from Tampa’s roster-building strategy? Will Cashman use their success to change his model for shoring up bullpens? Are the Yankees seeing prospects through the prism of starting pitchers and not converting them sooner to the bullpen?
Cashman has done well finding gems among position player junk piles but his super bullpen scheme fell apart this season due to injuries and ineffectiveness.
I’m just watching this WS to see how the Rays can be beaten. Because next year they will add Wander Franco to the mix and beating Tampa will get even harder. Break up the Rays!
The fascinating thing about the Rays and the World series is that it features two of the teams that are at the bleeding edge of simply following the data. This isn't the old early aughts model of figuring out what metrics to use and then try to work that into the process.

Instead, it now it really seems as if they have abandoned old school traditional managing by feel and they will just play the probabilities in terms of match-ups and shifts. The big adjustment for fans is understanding that just because a shift gets beaten a few times doesn't mean its a failure. Its just the math working out how it should. That doesn't make watching it unfold any easier to stomach but it blunts the criticism that the strategy doesn't work.

It will be interesting to see if this approach gets wider acceptance or not.
 

terrynever

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The fascinating thing about the Rays and the World series is that it features two of the teams that are at the bleeding edge of simply following the data. This isn't the old early aughts model of figuring out what metrics to use and then try to work that into the process.

Instead, it now it really seems as if they have abandoned old school traditional managing by feel and they will just play the probabilities in terms of match-ups and shifts. The big adjustment for fans is understanding that just because a shift gets beaten a few times doesn't mean its a failure. Its just the math working out how it should. That doesn't make watching it unfold any easier to stomach but it blunts the criticism that the strategy doesn't work.

It will be interesting to see if this approach gets wider acceptance or not.
Thanks for putting into words what I’ve been thinking about while watching Kevin Cash manage games in recent years. It has been mostly aggravating for me, and for hitters, to see hard shots up the middle fielded routinely and turned into at least one out. Hitting it back through the box is so wrong in the shifting era. Matchups and shifts. I like your point about beating the shift not meaning much.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Thanks for putting into words what I’ve been thinking about while watching Kevin Cash manage games in recent years. It has been mostly aggravating for me, and for hitters, to see hard shots up the middle fielded routinely and turned into at least one out. Hitting it back through the box is so wrong in the shifting era. Matchups and shifts. I like your point about beating the shift not meaning much.
I don't know that I articulated it properly but I think both teams are asking their managers to follow a rules based approach that is unlike the game management most MLB fans are accustomed to.

What I would love to know more about is where managers have latitude. Does Cash have to follow a script for whom he uses as a defensive replacement or a PH? I am curious how far this gets taken in the extreme. At some point on the spectrum, the manager is simply an HR professional who is authorized to do press conferences.
 

terrynever

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I don't know that I articulated it properly but I think both teams are asking their managers to follow a rules based approach that is unlike the game management most MLB fans are accustomed to.

What I would love to know more about is where managers have latitude. Does Cash have to follow a script for whom he uses as a defensive replacement or a PH? I am curious how far this gets taken in the extreme. At some point on the spectrum, the manager is simply an HR professional who is authorized to do press conferences.
Yankees sort of went through this scrutiny after Game 2 against the Rays when Deivi Garcia opened for Mr. Happ. Cashman explained the Yankees’ process to Joel Sherman. My guess is Kevin Cash and the Rays use a similar approach, but maybe smarter, more cutting edge. I mean, the Yankees shift defenders but they have never used 4 outfielders, in my memory.

https://nypost.com/2020/10/07/brian-cashman-opens-up-on-yankees-mind-boggling-decision-sherman/
 

DeadlySplitter

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I am amused Brosseau has been a nothing (couple hits in WS game 1, but it was 8-1 at the time...) since the Chapman HR.

Meadows also has been awful all postseason... but got the HR off of Cole.
 

VORP Speed

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I don't know that I articulated it properly but I think both teams are asking their managers to follow a rules based approach that is unlike the game management most MLB fans are accustomed to.

What I would love to know more about is where managers have latitude. Does Cash have to follow a script for whom he uses as a defensive replacement or a PH? I am curious how far this gets taken in the extreme. At some point on the spectrum, the manager is simply an HR professional who is authorized to do press conferences.
The Rays have been doing this since Sternberg bought the team. It was what actually made Joe Maddon a super genius—being willing to be the public face of the analytics-driven decision-making. The level to which the analytics intrude into the in-game management has only increased as the amount of data available has exploded.

Manager has leeway for real-time in-game decisions but within a structured framework of data-driven views about matchups, pitch counts, times through the order, matching relievers to certain parts of the order or high/low leverage situations, etc. Things that are less context-dependent, like defensive positioning, are pretty well worked out ahead of time by the nerds.

HR professional doesn’t give the manager enough credit, it’s more like how a CEO of a private equity backed business would operate. He’s got to make real-time decisions, but he is doing it all in conjunction with a strong and active board of directors that is providing guidance, resources, extensively game-planning and ultimately makes the big, longer-term decisions. It’s actually a pretty effective way to run an organization, if not exactly heart-warming.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Yankees sort of went through this scrutiny after Game 2 against the Rays when Deivi Garcia opened for Mr. Happ. Cashman explained the Yankees’ process to Joel Sherman. My guess is Kevin Cash and the Rays use a similar approach, but maybe smarter, more cutting edge. I mean, the Yankees shift defenders but they have never used 4 outfielders, in my memory.

https://nypost.com/2020/10/07/brian-cashman-opens-up-on-yankees-mind-boggling-decision-sherman/
My guess is Cashman is headed this way based on anecdotes about how the Yankees do things now - based on comments during the round against Tampa, I seem to recall an announcing comment to the effect that Boone doesn't have much say over certain decisions. The MLB is really like the NBA where most decisions are a function of probabilities versus how someone looked during their pen session or hitting in the cage or how much they engaged with their manager before the game.

We may see the pendulum swing back someday but in-game management could actually be done by an algo of sorts with some human overlay for considerations not accounted for in the data (e.g. it says to go to Britton here but he tells Boone his arm hurts). The person doing the managing, on the other hand, is responsible explaining the lineup and process to the players, taking care of any personal or chemistry issues as well as speaking to the press.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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The Rays have been doing this since Sternberg bought the team. It was what actually made Joe Maddon a super genius—being willing to be the public face of the analytics-driven decision-making. The level to which the analytics intrude into the in-game management has only increased as the amount of data available has exploded.

Manager has leeway for real-time in-game decisions but within a structured framework of data-driven views about matchups, pitch counts, times through the order, matching relievers to certain parts of the order or high/low leverage situations, etc. Things that are less context-dependent, like defensive positioning, are pretty well worked out ahead of time by the nerds.

HR professional doesn’t give the manager enough credit, it’s more like how a CEO of a private equity backed business would operate. He’s got to make real-time decisions, but he is doing it all in conjunction with a strong and active board of directors that is providing guidance, resources, extensively game-planning and ultimately makes the big, longer-term decisions. It’s actually a pretty effective way to run an organization, if not exactly heart-warming.
And that is why the Rays are, by most measures except championships, a successful franchise. Its also likely why the Dodgers went so hard after Friedman. The hybrid approach to managing baseball - following some metrics but using an intuitive approach to other decisions - was clearly inefficient and Sternberg realized it. I mean, this is what happened on Wall Street in the 80s and beyond. The street digitized data, derived actionable intelligence and created models to take advantage of the access to better information. Sports have been slower to adjust because of the human element but the amount of money involved coupled with the value of moving to more of an information-based management style means its only a matter of time until gut-feel in-game adjustments are a relic of the past.

That said, your take is far better than mine - this is a CEO role but it is very structured.
 

terrynever

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Good discussion. The world is always changing. Baseball changes. We need a SABR historian to explain how Ty Cobb’s game was ruined by Babe Ruth and the long ball. 100 years later, we have evolved to a game of strikeouts, walks, home runs, every hitter swinging from his ass, wonderful athleticism, stellar fielding, and pitching up the wazoo. Babe would need a lighter bat today but Cobb might fit right in.
 
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VORP Speed

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To an earlier point, I don’t think the 60 game schedule particularly helped the Rays. What did help them was the 28 man roster. They make much better use of those last spots on the bench than most other teams.

I also don’t really think the bullpen is tiring. The familiarity over these long series becomes an issue but also bullpen performance is just a highly volatile thing. It’s mostly Anderson that is looking much more mortal in the post-season, and that started against Toronto in the WC series and has continued ever since. So doesn’t really seem like fatigue as much as a poorly timed regression or a slump. Over a long season the Rays do a fantastic job of cycling relievers through various leverage-acuity roles and letting them find their level at any given time. It’s an ever shifting thing and their momentum trading type of approach helps blunt the natural volatility a bit (along with the fact that they do an amazing job coaching up relievers, helping them focus on what’s most effective for them and setting them up for success). In a short postseason, it’s harder to shift things around and experiment so you’re more likely to dance with who brung ya even if performance starts to fall off a bit.
 

terrynever

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Rooting for the Rays to force a Game 7.

And yes, VORP, Rays have definitely used their 28 players better than most. Three more nobodies to make fans sit up and ask, “Who are these guys?”
 

VORP Speed

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Roberts insists Gonsolin is a starter, even though he was used as an opener in Game 2. Don't think you'll see the Rays go with their usual RHP platoon line-up...probably a more balanced approach in anticipation of early call to pen. Rays need to find some offense. They're just not beating the Dodgers 2-1. Game 6 was winnable. Seager looked out before scoring his run, Margot was bang bang on steal of home. Got to Kershaw a bit but couldn't get a big hit. It's not Kershaw tonight. A bit of Gonsolin plus the pen is very beatable. Blake Snell wants to be an ace, this is the moment to prove it. Get 5 solid innings before the pen takes over. It will be all hands on deck tonight. Wouldn't be surprised to see Glasnow for a few batters. Live to fight another day.
 

loshjott

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Rooting for the Rays to force a Game 7.

And yes, VORP, Rays have definitely used their 28 players better than most. Three more nobodies to make fans sit up and ask, “Who are these guys?”
Rooting for the Rays to force a Game 7 also. Give me that extra game of baseball. And give me one more day of the Nats being the champs.
 

terrynever

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Rooting for the Rays to force a Game 7 also. Give me that extra game of baseball. And give me one more day of the Nats being the champs.
In a pandemic, we really need a Game 7. I wonder if the TV ratings are up with most of us staying home at night?
 

SemperFidelisSox

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One of the greatest moments in World Series history came in Game 4, and it happened a little after midnight. How many kids were asleep when Phillips was running around the outfield in celebration. Either change the start times or continue to find ways to shorten games.