BA and their annual projected NY lineups

jon abbey

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Jul 15, 2005
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While waiting for this year's edition of Baseball America's Prospect Handbook to arrive, I realized I still had the last few editions also, back to 2017. Each year one thing they do is a projected lineup 3 years ahead, so I thought those might be fun to look at in juxtaposition. So the 2020 one is from the 2017 edition going into the 2017 season, etc...

projected 2020/2021/2022/2023 lineups:

C: Gary Sanchez/Sanchez/Sanchez/Sanchez
1B: Greg Bird/Bird/Luke Voit/Voit
2B: Jorge Mateo/Torres/Torres/Oswald Peraza
SS: Gleyber Torres/Gregorius/Gregorius/Torres
3B: Didi Gregorius/Miguel Andujar/Andujar/Gio Urshela
LF: Clint Frazier/Frazier/Frazier/Stanton
CF: Blake Rutherford/Estevan Florial/Aaron Hicks/Jasson Dominguez
RF: Aaron Judge/Judge/Judge/Judge
DH: Jacoby Ellsbury/Giancarlo Stanton/Stanton/Andujar
#1 SP: Masahiro Tanaka/Luis Severino/Severino/Gerrit Cole
#2 SP: James Kaprielian/Sheffield/Tanaka/Severino
#3 SP: Justus Sheffield/Sonny Gray/James Paxton/Paxton
#4 SP: Chance Adams/Adams/Jonathan Loaisiga/Domingo German
#5 SP: Michael Pineda/Albert Abreu/Jordan Montgomery/Clarke Schmidt
closer: Dellin Betances/Aroldis Chapman/Chapman/Luis Medina

So the 2020 one has almost nothing right (just Sanchez/Gleyber/Judge/Tanaka) but still those are some interesting names in the 2023 predictions, Jasson of course but also Clarke Schmidt (who looked good today) and my guy Luis Medina at closer (!), plus Oswald Peraza who was not really on my radar much but everyone seems to be in love with now.
 

jon abbey

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Jul 15, 2005
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If anyone still has the 2016 edition and wouldn't mind typing in the list in there, I would be curious to see that.
 

Rough Carrigan

reasons within Reason
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SoSH Member
While waiting for this year's edition of Baseball America's Prospect Handbook to arrive, I realized I still had the last few editions also, back to 2017. Each year one thing they do is a projected lineup 3 years ahead, so I thought those might be fun to look at in juxtaposition. So the 2020 one is from the 2017 edition going into the 2017 season, etc...

projected 2020/2021/2022/2023 lineups:

C: Gary Sanchez/Sanchez/Sanchez/Sanchez
1B: Greg Bird/Bird/Luke Voit/Voit
2B: Jorge Mateo/Torres/Torres/Oswald Peraza
SS: Gleyber Torres/Gregorius/Gregorius/Torres
3B: Didi Gregorius/Miguel Andujar/Andujar/Gio Urshela
LF: Clint Frazier/Frazier/Frazier/Stanton
CF: Blake Rutherford/Estevan Florial/Aaron Hicks/Jasson Dominguez
RF: Aaron Judge/Judge/Judge/Judge
DH: Jacoby Ellsbury/Giancarlo Stanton/Stanton/Andujar
#1 SP: Masahiro Tanaka/Luis Severino/Severino/Gerrit Cole
#2 SP: James Kaprielian/Sheffield/Tanaka/Severino
#3 SP: Justus Sheffield/Sonny Gray/James Paxton/Paxton
#4 SP: Chance Adams/Adams/Jonathan Loaisiga/Domingo German
#5 SP: Michael Pineda/Albert Abreu/Jordan Montgomery/Clarke Schmidt
closer: Dellin Betances/Aroldis Chapman/Chapman/Luis Medina

So the 2020 one has almost nothing right (just Sanchez/Gleyber/Judge/Tanaka) but still those are some interesting names in the 2023 predictions, Jasson of course but also Clarke Schmidt (who looked good today) and my guy Luis Medina at closer (!), plus Oswald Peraza who was not really on my radar much but everyone seems to be in love with now.
I think it's pretty much par for the course that they don't get anything right. These things are always organization projections of what they'll do 5 years out. They always ignore the strong possibility of prospect flameouts. They can't factor in trade acquisitions or the loss of some of the expected lineup to trades. I haven't tried to keep track of 'em for 5 years but I remember looking at one for the Dodgers from, maybe 2016 and they similarly missed what their actual team was a few years later.
 

jon abbey

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Jul 15, 2005
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Three years out, but yeah. I like how ballsy they are, it would be easy to say LeMahieu for 2B for NY now for instance, but instead they go with a 19 year old who had a .681 OPS in 183 ABs in low A last year. Medina for closer I understand much better, but he is 20 and barely got to high A last year (he is on the 40 man already though).
 

jon abbey

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Jul 15, 2005
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Also I like that they gave up on Tanaka for a year in the middle. And how about all that Clint belief!