Arsenal 2014-2015: Ugh. Your banter stinks.

[coremiller]

These posts are great stuff, blueguitar. I'll try to give a more thoughtful response when I have time, but overall I agree mainly with your conclusions. I think it also shows why players like Ozil, who is almost like a support striker that likes to float around when played at his best offensively, are very hard to fit into contemporary tactics. Mourinho had this issue as well with Mata and decided to get rid. I would love for Ozil to work out at Arsenal but there is part of me that wonders whether the team would not be better off selling him this summer and putting those funds toward a massive purchase of a World Class striker and/or center back.

 
Silva is a similar sort of player for City and he's fine there.  Their standard formation is something like 4-2-3-1 with Fernandinho holding, Toure as the B2B, Nasri left, Navas right, Aguero up top, and Silva playing between the lines.  
 
The issue, I think is this.  If you play Ozil centrally as a #10, you can only include two other central midfielders, and one of those two has to be explicitly defensive.  If Flamini/Coquelln is the defensive mid, that means that only one of Ramsey, Wilshire, Cazorla, and Arteta is going to play.
 
OTOH, if you start Ozil wide and he drifts in, you lack width, as Sach points out.  You can compensate by pushing the fullbacks up, but that means you need quick centerbacks willing to spread wide to cover for them and positionally sound central midfielders who will drop deep to cover the middle when the FBs push up and the CBs spread wide -- the whole system of players has to react to shift the shape to cover where the space is.  Arsenal's central midfielders are generally not very good at that sort of fluid defensive positioning game.  Indeed, if the whole point of pushing Ozil wide is to get two or three of Ramsey/Wilshire/Cazorla/Arteta on the pitch, and then you ask them to play deep to cover for attacking fullbacks, you are neutering part of their whole value, which is their ability to support the attack.  Arteta can sort of play that game, but he's old and getting slower by the day.  
 
So the issue is not Ozil per se, it's that Ozil's strengths and weaknesses don't mesh very well with the strengths and weaknesses of the other players in the squad.  What I think is strange about all this is that the general attitude seems to be that this is Ozil's problem, that he needs to adapt his game or be shipped out.  I see it the other way -- Ozil is the best (or 2nd best, now that Sanchez is there) player in the squad, and it's really a Ramsey/Wilshire/Cazorla problem, those guys need to learn more tactical discipline and figure out how to play within a system that allows a player of Ozil's caliber to flourish.  Because Ozil when healthy and in form is absolutely one of the world's best players.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Silva is a similar sort of player for City and he's fine there.  Their standard formation is something like 4-2-3-1 with Fernandinho holding, Toure as the B2B, Nasri left, Navas right, Aguero up top, and Silva playing between the lines.

They mainly play that or the 4-2-2-2 formation but I'm not sure that he's really "fine there," at least in European play. Silva is probably a better fit for integration into a three man midfield than Ozil but the lack of a setup featuring a real three man midfield has been one of their huge issues in Europe, making it really difficult for them to control games.
 

The issue, I think is this.  If you play Ozil centrally as a #10, you can only include two other central midfielders, and one of those two has to be explicitly defensive.  If Flamini/Coquelln is the defensive mid, that means that only one of Ramsey, Wilshire, Cazorla, and Arteta is going to play.
 
OTOH, if you start Ozil wide and he drifts in, you lack width, as Sach points out.  You can compensate by pushing the fullbacks up, but that means you need quick centerbacks willing to spread wide to cover for them and positionally sound central midfielders who will drop deep to cover the middle when the FBs push up and the CBs spread wide -- the whole system of players has to react to shift the shape to cover where the space is.  Arsenal's central midfielders are generally not very good at that sort of fluid defensive positioning game.  Indeed, if the whole point of pushing Ozil wide is to get two or three of Ramsey/Wilshire/Cazorla/Arteta on the pitch, and then you ask them to play deep to cover for attacking fullbacks, you are neutering part of their whole value, which is their ability to support the attack.  Arteta can sort of play that game, but he's old and getting slower by the day.  
 
So the issue is not Ozil per se, it's that Ozil's strengths and weaknesses don't mesh very well with the strengths and weaknesses of the other players in the squad.  What I think is strange about all this is that the general attitude seems to be that this is Ozil's problem, that he needs to adapt his game or be shipped out.  I see it the other way -- Ozil is the best (or 2nd best, now that Sanchez is there) player in the squad, and it's really a Ramsey/Wilshire/Cazorla problem, those guys need to learn more tactical discipline and figure out how to play within a system that allows a player of Ozil's caliber to flourish.  Because Ozil when healthy and in form is absolutely one of the world's best players.

I agree with a lot of this but I also think Ozil is just a hard player to build around because he's not accustomed to being part of a cohesive bank of three or four defensively in front of the backs (instead, he's used to playing higher up the pitch and waiting for outlet balls) and because his game is all about drifting around the pitch looking for space, which means he's often out of position when you turn the ball over. Wenger faces the same issues that Mourinho faced at Real and Low faced with Germany. Those two coaches had more talent at their disposal so it makes more sense for Wenger to go further in accommodating Ozil. But the reality is that basically every coach that has dealt with the "Ozil problem" has ultimately decided that he is a fantastic player to play centrally against weaker opposition but one that has to be moved to the wing in bigger games where you need a tougher and more cohesive three man midfield that can control the game more effectively.

 

[coremiller]

Part of the issue at Madrid was that Ronaldo doesn't do much defensively either.  One passenger you can make an exception for, but not two, and Ronaldo was always going to take priority.
 
The issue isn't playing Ozil wide vs. centrally (which you seem to mostly address), it's whether Ozil can play wide at all because he doesn't provide any width.  Low solved this by 1) playing with excellent width on the other side (Muller/Lahm), and 2) in Schweinsteiger, Khedira, and Kroos they had the sort of athletic, technical but tactically aware central midfielders who can compensate for and adjust to Ozil's wanderings and for fullbacks going forward.  Basically my point is that Wilshire and Ramsay need to play more like that, with that sort of discipline, and cut back a bit on all the forward runs into the final third.  Arsenal are in some sense in a better position than Germany to play Ozil wide, because they have actual left backs in Monreal and Gibbs (Germany were playing Howedes out of position), so they can use the fullback to create width on that side.  But having one player with a freeish role requires all the others to have real tactical discipline, which is not the strong suit of Arsenal's other 1st-choice midfielders.  This sort of shape still might be vulnerable at the back to a team that presses and has fast wingers (in the way that the only teams to give Germany much trouble defensively were Ghana and Algeria, by attacking them wide and directly at pace), but Ozil is also one of the best around at beating a press.  

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Part of the issue at Madrid was that Ronaldo doesn't do much defensively either.  One passenger you can make an exception for, but not two, and Ronaldo was always going to take priority.
 
The issue isn't playing Ozil wide vs. centrally (which you seem to mostly address), it's whether Ozil can play wide at all because he doesn't provide any width.  Low solved this by 1) playing with excellent width on the other side (Muller/Lahm), and 2) in Schweinsteiger, Khedira, and Kroos they had the sort of athletic, technical but tactically aware central midfielders who can compensate for and adjust to Ozil's wanderings and for fullbacks going forward.  Basically my point is that Wilshire and Ramsay need to play more like that, with that sort of discipline, and cut back a bit on all the forward runs into the final third.  Arsenal are in some sense in a better position than Germany to play Ozil wide, because they have actual left backs in Monreal and Gibbs (Germany were playing Howedes out of position), so they can use the fullback to create width on that side.  But having one player with a freeish role requires all the others to have real tactical discipline, which is not the strong suit of Arsenal's other 1st-choice midfielders.  This sort of shape still might be vulnerable at the back to a team that presses and has fast wingers (in the way that the only teams to give Germany much trouble defensively were Ghana and Algeria, by attacking them wide and directly at pace), but Ozil is also one of the best around at beating a press.  

 
I can't argue with any of that. Fwiw, if the other players are performing their roles, I don't think its a problem to play Ozil wide on the left and have him often tuck in and the fullback overlap for width, while the other fullback is more of a stay-at-home type.  This has kind of imbalance between the two sides has actually been a staple of a lot of Arsenal sides in the past, with a wide midfielder/winger on one side that often tucks in and a fullback that frequently overlaps, while the opposite side fullback stays at home more often.  So I think it can work fine, but the other players have to be on the same page, as you note.

 

[blueguitar322]

Good points by all.  It's relevant to note that Ozil has had a hard time with pundits and fans for quite a while.  I read an article just the other day (sorry for the goal.com link) that decried Ozil's performance in clasico matches against Barca.  He received tons of bad press, in Germany and internationally, for his performances in the World Cup.  
 
Despite that, it seems that Ozil is as reliable a creator of chances as there is in today's game:  
 

Ozil's Created Chances

Year	Team	Position	Chances Created per 90	Ranking
2014-5	Arsenal	1 game as #10, 5 as winger	2.3	3rd team
2014	Germany	7 games as winger	2.4	1st team
2013-4	Arsenal	24 games as #10, 1 as winger	3.2	4th EPL / 1st team
2012-3	Real Madrid	19 games as #10, 4 as winger	4	1st La Liga
2011-2	Real Madrid	17 games as #10, 17 as winger	3.5	1st La Liga
2010-1	Real Madrid	26 games as #10, 4 as winger	4.1	1st La Liga

 
 
If Ozil can re-assert his La Liga production, or Fall 2013's production, then he absolutely deserves to be in the squad and - I'd argue - play as #10.  As coremiller mentioned, Ozil is the second best attacking player in the squad, and only in-form Cazorla can provide what Ozil can.  The problem then becomes the other two midfield spots, as they need to both be very positionally aware. This requirement probably leaves Ozil, Cazorla, and Wilshere to split time as #10, which obviously isn't what Wenger wants.
 
I'm really not convinced that Ozil as a winger is really the best option for a team like Arsenal.  Germany can only play with German players, but Arsenal can buy just about anyone that's for sale (and some that aren't) as long as they can get a work permit.  As winger, Ozil's strengths (pulling defensive alignments out of position, creating chances) are minimized and his weaknesses (fighting for 50/50 balls, defensive awareness) are maximized.  Non-holding central midfielders don't typically ever have to cover anyone 1-on-1, they're in the center of the formation and can count on help from both sides.  Wingers, however, often have to track fullback runs and deal with frequent overloads.  The idea of Ozil and still-green Bellerin trying to handle three offensive players for a few seconds while waiting for help to arrive is a scary thought.  If Wenger is going to play Ozil as winger, he might as well just sell him. IMHO.

 

[dirtynine]

Any squad predictions for Sunday? Relatively
full strength? Brighton is showing some signs of life for the first time all year. Tiexiera, on loan from Liverpool, with a brace today.

 

[mikeford]

I'm hoping they rest Alexis and Cazorla, honestly. At least don't start them. Have them on the bench if things go haywire but Ozil at #10 and Giroud, Walcott and Ox/Rosicky/whoever else at LW should suffice for attacking purposes. 

 

[blueguitar322]

From Arsenal.com: Wenger: We Will Pay the Right Price [for Gabriel Paulista]
 

The Arsenal manager has confirmed that talks are ongoing with Villarreal over the potential signing of defender Gabriel Paulista. The Brazilian centre-back is yet to play for his national team so does not fit the minimum criteria for a work permit, but Wenger says the club will try to get the deal done this month. “We are talking at the moment. Can we find an agreement or not? I don’t know. We are slowly progressing but there’s a chance,” the manager said. “We are ready to pay the price we think is right for a good player, no matter what the price is. If we think it’s the right price we will pay. [The deal is] 50-50 at this moment. We respect the rules in England - when you buy a player who does not fulfil the criteria and needs a work permit, you go in front of a commission and they tell you yes or no. We will accept that.”

 
Hard to remember a time when Wenger was that open about the transfer process.
 
I've never seen Paulista play, so I took a quick look at some stats and how he matched up with other CBs (data from Whoscored, both league and CL):
 

Defensive Statstics per 90 (adjusted time of possession)

Team	Tackles	Dribbled Past	Tackle Success	Interceptions	Clearances	Blocks	Headers Won	Header Success	Giveaways
Gabriel Paulista	Villareal	1.1	0.4	75%	4.4	4.8	1.5	2.7	62%	0.5
Winston Reid	West Ham	1.5	0.4	80%	1.8	9.3	1.6	3.0	68%	0.7
Per Mertesacker	Arsenal	1.2	0.3	78%	2.2	6.0	1.2	3.2	70%	0.3
Laurent Koscielny	Arsenal	1.6	0.5	75%	4.5	5.9	1.7	2.8	49%	0.5
Vincent Kompany	City	2.2	0.9	72%	3.2	5.0	1.3	1.7	58%	0.3
John Terry	Chelsea	1.4	0.3	81%	0.9	5.6	1.3	2.8	73%	0.1
Diego Godin	Atletico Madrid	2.3	0.5	82%	3.8	7.2	1.2	4.5	73%	0.6
Sergio Ramos	Real Madrid	2.3	0.9	73%	4.0	4.9	1.8	3.8	67%	0.7

 
Note that the above statistics are per 90 minutes of playing time adjusted for team's time of possession.  E.g. Kompany's defensive stats at City, where they have 59.9% possession, would probably be higher if he played at West Ham, where Winston Reid enjoys only 46.6% possession.  Therefore I adjusted stats for a hypothetical 50-50 possession game.
 
Some quick conclusions about Paulista:

• Seems to be at the low end of the pack, which probably isn't surprising considering the company (Kompany?)
• Somewhat below average tackling rates and aerial win % but high interception rates make me think he's a CB who relies on his positioning and not brute strength
• The closest comp above seems to be Koscielny, who shares nearly identical tackle % and interception rate, with Koscielny somewhat more active with more tackles and equal aerial wins despite lower aerial win %
• I already knew this from watching him, but my goodness, Godin is a beast

Of course the statistics will never tell the whole story (how well does he communicate? how much pace does he have? does he man-mark so well as to prevent the ball coming his way? is he strong on set pieces?). Overall, though, I don't see any red flags from the above that would make me worried about his future at Arsenal, but it doesn't seem like he's going to step in and be an immediate world-beater.  Then again, he is only 24 after all.

 

[blueguitar322]

FourFourTwo chimes in on Paulista
 

Strengths
 
Besides his positional versatility, Paulista’s tenacity and aggression make him a great fit for the physical demands of the Premier League. He thrives on closely man-marking the opponent and using his reading of the game to outwit attackers, but he also knows when to get stuck in: he has won 16 out of 19 attempted tackles this season. Villarreal have garnered plaudits for their proficiency to play out from the back and Paulista’s technique has been central in making this tactic work. Comfortable with the ball at his feet, Paulista’s athleticism enables him to stride out of defence and help a fluid transition from defence to attack.
 
Weaknesses
 
If Paulista seems to have the stereotypical advantages of an Arsenal player – an intelligent, flexible ball-player – he also shares their typical shortfalls: lack of physical strength and aerial dominance, coupled with a slight tendency to overplay. Although he has developed physically and at 6ft 1.5in is no shrimp, he has been outmuscled by some of La Liga's beefier strikers and may find the Premier League demands more physicality. He needs to improve in aerial duels; Mertesacker aside, Arsenal lack a commanding presence but Paulista is unlikely to fully remedy this shortcoming. He has also been criticised for some decisions he has made in possession: his distribution-from-defence style suits Arsenal, but if a pass does not reach its intended target, his weaknesses may be highlighted.

 

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Wenger acknowledging they are in talks probably means it's close to done and dusted.

Everything I read suggests that Paulista profiles similarly to Kos and that he has earned rave reviews in La Liga. That said, he's been in Europe for a year and we don't have the greatest track record with Brazilians so we'll see. But I'm happy that we added much needed depth and that he seemingly has the upside to be groomed into a starter.

If the outcome of this window is that I never again have to see Flamini at DM or Monreal at CB in a meaningful game, I'll be pretty happy.

 

[mikeford]

The real question is can he get a UK work permit?

 

[Spacemans Bong]

Are we sure he doesn't have an EU passport?
 
He's Brazilian, but he's played in Spain for a couple years and he's from Sao Paulo, which is usually a good sign there's some floating Italian ancestry (and therefore entitlement to an Italian passport) around somewhere. 
 
Even then I think we could argue to the work permit tribunal that a guy we intend to play in the first team is likely to become a Brazilian squad member pretty soon. If he's coming he'll get minutes, which I think is key - you think about Friedel's work permit hell, he was a US goalkeeper (at a time when the USA was considered small fry - I don't think he has such problems today) who was usually coming to be a backup. 

 

[blueguitar322]

What I've read is that the UK is putting a new rule in place this summer, where work permits will be approved even without international caps as long as the transfer fee is greater than £10M.  Until this summer, all work permit requests for non-capped player are automatically denied and have to go through an appeals process, which is somewhat strict but has generated exceptions over recent history.  It is somewhat ridiculous that someone with one cap for e.g. Trinidad and Tobago would have an easier time getting a work permit than a guaranteed starter for the La Liga's 6th place team.
 
That's a good question about EU passport, which would make him exempt from the work permit application process thanks to the EU treaty, but Occam's razor would say if he had such a passport, both Villareal and Arsenal would know by now.

 

[mikeford]

He doesn't have one according to the Guardian

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

https://twitter.com/DarrenArsenal1/status/558366168516685824
 
This guy Darren is kind of a clown but I don't think he makes this kind of stuff (Wenger Q&A to bigwigs) up.  Also said apparently that Ozil and Walcott will start on Sunday, which is to be expected.

 

[Luis Taint]

Is there anyway to download Fox Sports 2 onto my PS4?

 

[miracleofmidre]

Campbell out on loan to Villareal, Paulista agreement in principle pending work permit it sounds like.

http://theshortfuse.sbnation.com/2015/1/24/7885133/gabriel-paulista-arsenal-transfer-news-villarreal-joel-campbell

 

[blueguitar322]

Confirmed by BBC.  Good signing, much needed depth.  Makes me less nervous about how shaky Mertesacker and Chambers have been so far this year.  Still sure that Mert/Kos will be starting pair for the rest of the season, but now Arsene has options in case of injury/loss of form.

 

[blueguitar322]

I am a bit disappointed about Campbell though - I was looking forward to seeing him get some playing time.  Apparently he never did enough to really earn Arsene's trust.

 

[mikeford]

 
 
ROZAY

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Paulista was apparently officially granted his work permit and will have a medical today and then the media presentation.  We'll see how he pans out but its fantastic to address our biggest need in the January transfer window with a week to spare.  Kallstrom who?
 
The fixture list is about to get congested (six matches from Feb 10 to March 1) but this could be a different sort of February/March for Arsenal - healthy team in good form that just received a nice transfer boost, relatively easy upcoming fixture list in the league, should be favorites to advance to the quarters in both UCL and FA Cup (pending the draw today).  I'm not counting any chickens but I'm optimistic about the next couple months.

 

[Conigliaro's Potential]

I'm surprised the work permit came so quickly - I thought it would likely come eventually, but to get that sorted and Paulista straight into the squad is very good business. In looking at the squad now, as long as you assume Bellerin/Chambers can cover right back and Coquelin remains in good form at DM (with Bielik/Flamini as backup), we're now pretty well covered everywhere, no? For the first time since September, I feel as though fourth place shouldn't be the limit of our ambition.

 

[blueguitar322]

Coming off of the high of the FA cup victory last year, as an Arsenal fan I wanted three primary things for the 2014-5 year: (1) better personnel, (2) more flexible tactics, and (3) fewer injuries.  Signing Alexis Sanchez early in the summer, along with hiring Shad Forsythe as trainer, provided a lot of initial optimism.  The refusal to sign adequate cover for defensive positions and the tepid start to the year (worst since 1982 through Nov 22), combined with numerous injuries, made for a somewhat depressing fall given expectations going into the year.
 
Now, nearing the end of the January transfer window, it's time to re-assess.
 
Personnel

• Striker was an issue last year as Giroud was really the only viable option (Bendtner lolwut?) and was absolutely run into the ground, starting almost every game.  This year the addition of Welbeck, along with the positional flexibility offered by Alexis, has really helped mitigate his loss to injury.  As much as Giroud is not really a world-class striker, it's clear that a not over-played Giroud is one of the key cogs that make Arsenal go. 
• Defensive midfield was the second primary concern, and unfortunately Wenger didn't do anything to mitigate for Flamini's positional recklessness and Arteta's age-induced decline.  Recently Coquelin has impressed, though it's a very small sample size and for all we know, he could be Arsenal's Jackie Bradley Jr - inspiration for a few games due to adding an element previously lacking (defensive security for Coq, speed for JBJ) but ultimately not ready for prime time.
• Defense wasn't really a concern going into the year but Arsene made it a concern when he refused to replace Vermaelen and was forced to play Monreal and later Debuchy as CBs to cover for Kos.  If Wenger had signed Gabriel last summer, it would have made life much easier.
• The brightest star in Arsenal's universe - nay, any universe - has been Alexis Sanchez.  He has almost single-handedly carried the team through a tactical transition littered with injuries.  Best signing Arsene has made since Fabregas.

Tactics
As I discussed in a previous post, I think Wenger went overboard hoping that a 4-1-4-1 would fix Arsenal's tendency to leak goals in big games.  Ultimately I think player selection plays a much bigger role.  Going forward, I hope he sticks with a 4-2-3-1 with Ozil as #10 and instructions for the midfield pivots to play more conservatively, but I somehow doubt that will happen.  Still, Wenger recognized issues and at least tried to fix the problem, even at the cost of shoehorning his most expensive player into a less productive position.
 
Injuries
Big disappointment here, though there's not nearly enough info to place blame on anyone's shoulders.  Some players have returned from injuries faster than expected (Ozil, Giroud, Debuchy) while others have taken longer (Walcott, Arteta).
 
Here's the list of the 19 players that have been injured during the year so far.

Spoiler

Giroud, Welbeck, Debuchy, Ozil, Walcott, Wilshere, Ramsey, Rosicky, Arteta, Koscielny, Gibbs, Monreal, Sanogo, Gnabry, Ospina, Szczesny, Flamini, Mertesacker, Diaby

 
Here's the list of all seven players who have been with the team since August without injury:

Spoiler

Alexis (knock on wood), Cazorla, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Campbell, Chambers, Bellerin, Emiliano Martinez

 
Given that Arteta, Wilshere, Debuchy and Diaby are the only long term (>1 month) injury problems at the moment (knock on wood repeatedly), and that Wenger finally has a full squad from which to select, I do see optimism for the rest of the year.  Arsenal are 3rd in RPI behind City and Chelsea, but ahead of Southampton (4th) and United (5th).  If the team keeps playing as they have been for the past two months, I think 3rd is a very reasonable expectation.  

 

[blueguitar322]

Middlesbrough at Arsenal

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Home against Boro in the next round of the FA Cup. They performed brilliantly against City but overall that's a great draw.

 

[sachmoney]

Home against Boro in the next round of the FA Cup. They performed brilliantly against City but overall that's a great draw.

I really just wanted a home draw and to avoid United or Liverpool. We got it. Additionally, those two clubs, if they advance, will have to play away from home. I also think that it's a good thing that Boro beat City. (Besides City being out) You don't want to be the next victim, so you have to take the opponent seriously.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

I really just wanted a home draw and to avoid United or Liverpool. We got it. Additionally, those two clubs, if they advance, will have to play away from home. I also think that it's a good thing that Boro beat City. (Besides City being out) You don't want to be the next victim, so you have to take the opponent seriously.

Yeah, I agree. It would be hard to take Boro lightly after what they did to City so I think Wenger will field a strong team and have us up for it. And the surrounding fixtures aren't that bad and don't involve significant travel - we play the 10th at home against Leicester, the FA cup tie will likely be on the 14th or 15th, and then we don't play until the 21st away to Palace.

 

[teddykgb]

FWIW, City fielded a strong team and it made no difference.  But I agree that Boro have already won their biggest match of the year, I can't see them getting as up for it again.  You'd have to fancy Arsenal given the teams remaining.

 

[SoxFanInCali]

Boro have definitely been scrappy in the cups.  Remember, it took a 14-13 shootout for Liverpool to get them out of the League Cup.
 
Don't underestimate an underdog on a run, though.  In 2008 I remember a lot of Chelsea fans got a good laugh at Liverpool's expense when Barnsley knocked the Reds out in the 5th round, right up until Barnsley beat Chelsea in the 6th.

 

[mikeford]

We've lost to crappier teams in both cups before, I'm glad this is at home though

 

[sachmoney]

Yeah, I'm not laughing at anyone. I'm just saying that, while it's an easier draw on paper, the fact that they beat a stronger City team is something that psychologically should give the Arsenal players something to get more hyped up about than just playing a lower league side. The game still needs to be played and Arsenal needs to respond to the challenge. It's just that the win over City has to perk your ears up. You can't take Boro lightly.
 
Arsenal are the current favorites to win the tournament, according to bookmakers.

 

[blueguitar322]

Middlesbrough will very possibly be an EPL team next year, they're no slouches.  Arsenal will come out prepared.  And if they lose, although the Arsenal fan in me will be disappointed, the soccer fan in me will revel in one of the all-time Cinderella stories, and will pull for Boro the rest of the way.

 

[Spacemans Bong]

Boro are a decent side, but their success is built on a good back four (including Jonathan Woodgate, who has miraculously played 25 games this year), which I think plays to Arsenal's strengths. I've got confidence our midfielders and Alexis have enough class to break through - I would be a little more worried if Boro were piling on the goals. They've only scored 42 goals, which is the lowest in the top six of the Championship.
 
I think they're probably more likely to try and soak up pressure and hope for a lucky break than have a go like Brighton did, especially away from home. That makes for excruciating viewing for an arsenal fan, but they usually get a goal or two eventually.

 

[soxfan121]

Boro are a decent side, but their success is built on a good back four (including Jonathan Woodgate, who has miraculously played 25 games this year), which I think plays to Arsenal's strengths. I've got confidence our midfielders and Alexis have enough class to break through - I would be a little more worried if Boro were piling on the goals. They've only scored 42 goals, which is the lowest in the top six of the Championship.
 
I think they're probably more likely to try and soak up pressure and hope for a lucky break than have a go like Brighton did, especially away from home. That makes for excruciating viewing for an arsenal fan, but they usually get a goal or two eventually.

 
I Bongered this and it unbelievably seems to be true. I say seems - and checked - not because the sources of Bonger and Bonguer are unreliable, but because the idea of Woodgate being healthy enough to walk without a limp is causing a "does not compute" warning in my brain.

 

[Spacemans Bong]

I know, I could scarcely believe it myself! He could get hurt at any moment, and he seems to come off the subs bench a fair amount, but this could be his 1985-86 Bill Walton year.

 

[sachmoney]

Paulista's signing has been confirmed by dot com.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Paulista's signing has been confirmed by dot com.

Sweet.

It appears that he really just goes by Gabriel and that Paulista isn't even part of his actual name (he's from Sao Paulo, so the Paulista is kind of like Bostonian).

 

[mikeford]

Very ugly chap, dont think he fits in with our side :lol:

 

[Luis Taint]

He looks like the guy Charlie Sheen kept hitting with the butt of his rifle, in Platoon.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Sanchez is a doubt for this Sunday.
 
I think this is a great opportunity to give him some rest.  He has played non-stop all year and the last thing we need to do is run him into the ground and have him either ineffective or missing time through injury during the spring.  This also helps solve some of our squad selection dilemmas, as we could play Santi-Ozil-Walcott (or Ox) behind Giroud.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

 
Sweet photo.
 
Ox is apparently out for Sunday and my guess is that Alexis gets a rest too.  I'd like to see the following lineup.  This is a great opportunity to give Ozil and Theo some minutes and hopefully grab a few goals at home against a pretty toothless Villa.
 
---Giroud--
Santi--Ozil--Walcott
---Coquelin--Ramsey
Gibbs--Kos--BFG--Bellerin
-----Ospina----

Subs: Szczesny, Chambers, Monreal, Flamini, Zelalem, Rosicky, Akpom

 

[sachmoney]

Another terrific performance. Solid at the back. Özil and Santi ran the show. For a supposed one man team, Arsenal had five different goal scorers and have had more different goal scorers than any other team. 

At the end of the day, Villa just aren't very good right now and Arsenal's form is peaking. It's a joy to watch this side against a team that poses no attacking threat. A very liberated performance.

 

[Conigliaro's Potential]

I got my seven-year-old son a subscription to the kid-oriented "Match of the Day" magazine for Christmas, and in the last issue there was a small feature ahead of Transfer Deadline Day which asked if Mesut Özil is the worst ever signing in Premier League history. I mean...I want to encourage my son to become a football fan, but to read rubbish like that? Wow.

 

[mikeford]

I got my seven-year-old son a subscription to the kid-oriented "Match of the Day" magazine for Christmas, and in the last issue there was a small feature ahead of Transfer Deadline Day which asked if Mesut Özil is the worst ever signing in Premier League history. I mean...I want to encourage my son to become a football fan, but to read rubbish like that? Wow.

this gif should answer that with a resounding no: 

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

This team is really fun to watch right now.  We'll see if we can maintain consistency but everything is coming together nicely in terms of form, health, and a relatively friend (if packed) upcoming fixture list.  The countdown to kickoff is going so fucking slow, so lets kill some time with Arsenal thoughts...
 
I think its pretty clear that 4-1-4-1 (or 4-3-3) with Sanchez and Ozil on the wings is the future Wenger sees for the team, given that he has recently played that formation in both home games that we plan to dominate against weaker opposition like Villa and in an away match against a tough team like City.  I think its probably the right call in the long run and, hopefully, the recent form is an indication that the players have gotten more accustomed to that setup.
 
On a highly related note, Ozil was fantastic today playing on the wing - both the goal and the assist were pure class and he was influential in a lot of other moments as well.  He could easily have had two goals (given the one called back) and two assists in this game.  All the work in the gym during his layoff really seems to have paid off as well, as he looks a lot stronger out there.
 
The Santi-Ramsey-Coquelin three man midfield continues to look awesome.  Villa is easy sledding since they're so unthreatening offensively, but Coquelin had a bunch of nice interceptions and breakups while Santi again bossed the match.
 
I'm not sure we have a single nailed on starter at fullback anymore.  Monreal has been in great form, especially in terms of defensive discipline, and seems to have temporarily jumped ahead of Gibbs on the depth chart.  Bellerin has taken his chance and run with it this year - Debuchy probably starts over him when fully healthy and in good form, but I don't think its a total slam dunk.
 
Chuba Akpom has been really impressive in his last two brief stints.  He did well to earn the penalty and put himself into very dangerous goal scoring positions on at least three other occasions (once Bellerin's cross didn't quite get to him, once Santi crossed a bit behind him with Akpom's run maybe a bit mistimed, and once he did well to get a header on target but just couldn't generate any power on it) that I can remember.  His contract expires this summer and he has apparently attracted a bunch of interest from other clubs (BvB, Feyenoord, and Twente have been mentioned) and I really hope Wenger is able to convince him to stick around.
 
Blueguitar mentioned somewhere upthread that our squad looks to be in really good shape moving forward and I agree wholeheartedly.  I also think that if we really settle on 4-1-4-1, the roles in the team will become more defined, which in my mind is a big plus for a team that has been maddening in recent years in its propensity to constantly shift players around.
 
CF: Giroud, Welbeck, Akpom?
Wing: Alexis, Ozil, Theo, Ox.
B2B: Ramsey, Cazorla, Wilshere, Rozza (also can play wing)
DM: Coquelin, Arteta
LB: Gibbs, Monreal
RB: Debuchy, Bellerin
CB: Kos, BFG, Gabriel, Chambers
GK: Szczesny, Ospina
 
I'm assuming that Flamini leaves this summer and Podolski stays at Inter permanently.  For simplicity, lets also assume that Campbell and Sanogo either extend their loans or are sold outright and put aside marginal players like Zelalem, Gnabry, Hayden, etc for the moment.
 
That's a really good team with depth almost everywhere.  The one obvious addition is a DM as its unclear whether Coquelin is really the guy moving forward and Arteta simply can't be trusted to stay healthy at this point anyway.  A player like Schneiderlin or Gundogan who can also play the B2B role and who offers more than Coquelin in possession as a passer and string puller would be perfect.  We may also still need a striker, especially if Akpom leaves, although our lack of a world class option there looks a lot less glaring now that we're getting such good production from our wingers. 
 
Very bullish on this team right now. 

 

[Spacemans Bong]

I was in the Club Level for yesterday. It was hard to walk out, due to free booze and having a raging hard-on.

 

[sachmoney]

I'm not sure we have a single nailed on starter at fullback anymore.  Monreal has been in great form, especially in terms of defensive discipline, and seems to have temporarily jumped ahead of Gibbs on the depth chart.  Bellerin has taken his chance and run with it this year - Debuchy probably starts over him when fully healthy and in good form, but I don't think its a total slam dunk.
 
Chuba Akpom has been really impressive in his last two brief stints.  He did well to earn the penalty and put himself into very dangerous goal scoring positions on at least three other occasions (once Bellerin's cross didn't quite get to him, once Santi crossed a bit behind him with Akpom's run maybe a bit mistimed, and once he did well to get a header on target but just couldn't generate any power on it) that I can remember.  His contract expires this summer and he has apparently attracted a bunch of interest from other clubs (BvB, Feyenoord, and Twente have been mentioned) and I really hope Wenger is able to convince him to stick around.

Competition is a great thing. Monreal has really outplayed Gibbs this year. I don't think Gibbs has played particularly poorly, but the team has looked better with Monreal in the line up. Hopefully, they push each other to get better.
 

I was in the Club Level for yesterday. It was hard to walk out, due to free booze and having a raging hard-on.

I'd have had a raging hard-on too if I was that close to Thierry and Bobby Pires.

 

[blueguitar322]

Chuba Akpom has signed a 4.5-year deal to stay with the club.  His previous deal expired this summer, and he had been stalked by Borussia Dortmund, City, Tottenham, etc.  19-year old English striker, he's showed tons of promise in recent games.  Now that Sanogo is on loan to Palace, Akpom should get some more minutes.  
 
Wenger is also "99 percent [certain] that [Coquelin] will stay here" even though his current deal expires in the summer as well.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Chuba Akpom has signed a 4.5-year deal to stay with the club.  His previous deal expired this summer, and he had been stalked by Borussia Dortmund, City, Tottenham, etc.  19-year old English striker, he's showed tons of promise in recent games.  Now that Sanogo is on loan to Palace, Akpom should get some more minutes. 

 
Great news regarding Akpom.  I really have liked what I have seen from him so far in his limited cameos with the first team.  I'm not sure he's the most technical player, especially at this age, but he's very quick, very direct, and seems to have a good nose for getting into goal scoring positions in the box.  A nice option to bring off the bench for 10-20 minutes when the defense is tired.  He's also only 19-years-old. 
 
On another note: Nice extended breakdown (starting about 1:45) from Gary Neville on Bellerin's play and improvement this year.

 

[blueguitar322]

 Alexis will miss the North London Derby
 

on the team news...
Welbeck is back in the group. Apart from that we have the same squad available as last week.

on Alexis...
The latest is that Alexis is not ready. He is not far away, the Leicester game is a possibility. He is of course very difficult to keep quiet! He is training but it's light training.

on Jack Wilshere...
Jack is back in full training next week, hopefully from Sunday.

on Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain…
Alex is still out, but he is starting to practice again, not full training.

on Serge Gnabry…
Serge will play on Monday night at Newcastle, with Bielik. Bielik is coming along very well.