Are the 2015-2016 Celtics better or worse than the 2014-2015 Celtics?
- Thread starter Devizier
- Start date
Looking at it, it seems like part of it is that a lot of later 1st round guys just don't play at all, and then even the best rookies tend to not have much impact, so of the 15 -20 rookies who play, they all tend to mush into the same "generally shitty" category, and the total failures and suprisingly not terrible guys can come from anywhere within the range, since sometimes the best RPM is coming from not doing anything bad, so an older low ceiling player might have the best rookie year but never really improve. Where a guy like LaVine is terrible and everyone expects it because he's high upside but not ready and the team running him out there isn't trying to win.radsoxfan said:
Unless Durant spends next year on the sidelines with a broken foot there's a 0% chance that Boston matches them in the win column. Boston's best player, per RPM, couldn't crack OKC's starting five. To be brutally frank, I'm not sure that anyone on Boston could. Smart would probably have the best shot.bowiac said:
I don't buy that. You really think Amir Johnson for instance doesn't start for OKC?nighthob said:
I agree with the broader point that OKC is being underrated here however. That's a minutes distribution issue mostly. I'm trying not to get into the weeds of individual minutes projections yet, which has resulted in pretty "flat" minutes per game projections. If I ramp up Durant and Westbrook to 34 MPG, that OKC projection goes to 56 wins. If they let Enes Kanter sign with Portland, it goes to 58.
nighthob said:
Paul George, after snapping his leg in half on August 1st, is a legitimate MVP candidate? In a league with Lebron, Curry, Harden, Davis, et al?
I'll ultimately defer to your basketball knowledge, but I have my doubts he'll be the same player.
Realistically, nobody knows. I agree the mean projection should be that he won't come back 100% however.Erik Hanson's Hook said:
Cellar-Door said:
You kind of just explained why rookie RPM might not be totally random, right? (is that what you were trying to do?) Maybe non top ten 19 year olds picked on upside rather then current ability are going to really suck, while some other kind of rookie profile might only kind of suck. All rookies should probably be regressed to the mean, with the baseline being "all these guys are going to suck for the most part". But I'd be surprised if we couldn't do better than simply making their projections all identical.
Again, for the vast majority of the teams, it's unlikely to matter much. Rookies won't get enough minutes that it will be important if they are projected as -4.0 or -1.0. But for a small minority of teams like the TWolves last season, obviously in retrospect it would have been a good idea to downgrade LaVine pretty significantly from a standard rookie. Clearly in some cases you will end up being wrong, but I think you can probably do better than 50/50 if you shift the projections around based on a few relatively simple criteria.
The Celtics front court rotation has improved. Lee replaces Bass, Johnson probably pushes Zeller down the chart a notch, and one of Sullinger/Olynyk is available for trade. Among Lee, Sullinger and Olynyk, Stevens can deploy big men with more legitimate offensive skills than in 2014-5.
The Celtics back court rotation has improved. There is the problem of having too many 1.5 guards, but if anybody can find a good offensive structure for their combined duplicative skills, Stevens can. All the important offensive components are returning in Thomas, Smart and Bradley. Rozier might provide a spark off the bench; the rest of the draftees are unlikely to be relevant.
The Celtics will have better personnel, through trades, signings, and maturation. Their competition will be better too, and with Lee and Johnson, injuries must be expected. Still, it's nice to have an incentive to win, and having Ainge and Stevens work with common incentives may help as well.
Nobody likes watching a tank race.
The Celtics back court rotation has improved. There is the problem of having too many 1.5 guards, but if anybody can find a good offensive structure for their combined duplicative skills, Stevens can. All the important offensive components are returning in Thomas, Smart and Bradley. Rozier might provide a spark off the bench; the rest of the draftees are unlikely to be relevant.
The Celtics will have better personnel, through trades, signings, and maturation. Their competition will be better too, and with Lee and Johnson, injuries must be expected. Still, it's nice to have an incentive to win, and having Ainge and Stevens work with common incentives may help as well.
Nobody likes watching a tank race.
Hunter had a good showing today - seems like he needs some strength and conditioning work but may have the shot and the intengibles. Probably a non-factor this year but he might have a future.Sprowl said:
As for the bigs, I am really curious to see what Ainge and Stevens have in mind. I like all three of Zeller, Sullinger, and Olynyk, but they are all flawed in different ways and with Jerebko re-signed and Johnson and Lee on board there isn't a lot of room at the inn. Logic suggests that one or two of them will be moving to a new city - but which ones?
Wow - I really disagree. OKC is about to give Enes Kanter $15M rather than let Adams start. I think Johnson would be a no-brainer for them.nighthob said:
I think it might be more related to not wasting an asset that can be dealt next summer. A time when they'll be attempting to get KD to re-sign and there will be lots of potential trade partners with cap room for the deal. With KD down last year, Kanter's offense was needed in the starting five. I'm not sure that's the case anymore.bowiac said:
And version 3, pretty heavily regressing players who changed teams to the mean to account for increased uncertainty in role (sorry Amir). Also now using game-by-game win probabilities rather than pythagorean record, based on the 2015 schedule (which should largely resemble 2016).
This is just the result of heavy clumping between the 2 and 7 seeds (all teams between 46 and 43 wins). The Celtics' projected win hasn't gone up or anything.BigSoxFan said:
Nothing there seems too crazy to me honestly apart from maybe the low Bulls number. Atlanta probably overperformed last year, and lost DeMarre Carroll. Toronto added Carroll, but lost Amir Johnson. I'll poke around with what's happening with the Bulls rotation to cause that.
Edit - the Bulls number is mostly the result of rotoworld's depth charts only listing Joakim Noah at center, which is causing all the backup minutes to "spill over" to some low end backups. As mentioned earlier, the rotations are fully automated, which is going to cause some issues like this. Correcting for that Noah thing (putting some Pau minutes at center) moves the Bulls to 48 wins.
bowiac said:
It's years later and I still can't believe Sam Presti drafted Jeff Green over Joaqim Noah in the same year he drafted Kevin Durant. I can't believe any GM would draft two players in the top 5 who play the same position, much less a guy who is arguably the best GM in the league.
Then they traded for a washed up Kendrick Perkins. And they traded Harden without getting a solid center in return. For all the great things Presti has done for them center has been a glaring weakness for him.
Devizier said:
I do too. And I'm all for more tweaks to the system, as long as they are rational.
Unfortunately, each version so far the Celtics seem to be losing ground (many would say that's increasing the validity of the prediction of course).
Here's this same attempt from last season. (Ignore the coloring, that's for various prop bets):Devizier said:
EDIT - added a column with actual wins, the Vegas O/U, and result vs. Vegas.
bowiac said:
If they thought about it that way they would just have signed Johnson, though, so we can be pretty confident they do not see it as same as pure RPM does.
I don't know why I bother responding to you, but they are over the cap. They couldn't have "just signed Johnson."PedroKsBambino said:
bowiac said:
Right, they'd need a trade....but they had various options along the way had they valued it that way. Point being, its unlikely that is how they value the players. Agree we do not know for sure, though. I also agree with those who note that Presti is far from perfect, so him not valuing someone a certain way does not mean he's necessarily right.
Kanter is hugely overpaid on a max deal anyway---others have correctly assessed why it still may make sense for OKC, I think
So, from bowiac's chart if next time Kelly Olynyk pulls James's shoulder the Celtics have a shot at The Finals? Cool.
Actually though, it is remarkable that the East is so bad that a LeBron injury would give a chance. It's not as if players never get hurt.
Actually though, it is remarkable that the East is so bad that a LeBron injury would give a chance. It's not as if players never get hurt.
Eddie Jurak said:
RPM absolutely hates Bargnani, so presumably if he is projected to get many minutes he'll harm the Nets within this model.
There are some players RPM is too harsh on, but Bargnani isn't one of them. He's an absolutely terrible NBA player. As far as I can tell, he lacks any NBA-level skills sufficient to make it possible to find a role for him, or "put him in a position to succeed."Eddie Jurak said:
Given he signed for the minimum though, it seems the NBA has come around to that however, so I don't expect him to play much.
There were some decent players later (Millsap, Lowry, Rondo), but yeah, when in hindsight Ronnie Brewer was a clear top 10 talent, something has gone wrong.
That's a nice article. Maybe Hunter will earn some minutes for the C's this season. He may be that anti-James Young when it comes to instincts.
I could see Hunter getting 10 MPG as a pure shooter off the bench, especially if the Celtics want to go smallish and do something like Lee-Olynyk-Hunter-Bradley-Thomas as a second unit. That grouping might give up 125 points per 100, but man would it be a lot of fun to watch offensively.
Mickey looks pretty decent so far. Can hit the elbow J, block shots and even has shown some touch in the paint.
Hakim Warrick with better D wouldn't be too shabby at that point in the draft. For some reason Warrick sticks in my head as the prototype athletic tweener PF, although I was shocked to see how few blocks he collected over his career despite the nickname.
Hakim Warrick with better D wouldn't be too shabby at that point in the draft. For some reason Warrick sticks in my head as the prototype athletic tweener PF, although I was shocked to see how few blocks he collected over his career despite the nickname.
I don't know about you fellas but Smart, Bradley, Crowder, Lee & Johnson starting, with IT2, Rozier, Jerebko, (Sully/Oly) and Zeller off the bench seems like a much better team than the C's started last year with. The makings of a team are coming into shape and I can't wait to see Stevens work his magic.
Perhaps Bradley and Sully or Oly get traded for the SF we need and Crowder is pushed to backup where he belongs, Jerebko becomes the 3rd SF/3rd PF and Hunter becomes the 4th guard with IT starting. That scenario would be the next step forward for this team but they may not get the SF upgrade until the trading deadline or next offseason. In which case, see paragraph 1.
Perhaps Bradley and Sully or Oly get traded for the SF we need and Crowder is pushed to backup where he belongs, Jerebko becomes the 3rd SF/3rd PF and Hunter becomes the 4th guard with IT starting. That scenario would be the next step forward for this team but they may not get the SF upgrade until the trading deadline or next offseason. In which case, see paragraph 1.
Not a factor in the thread title but we officially opened up a roster spot with Gigi signing a long-term deal for 1.7m Euros with Fenerbahce. He posted on Twitter back in April his "thank you" letter to Boston fans but this makes it official. With the impending trade/waiving of Phil Pressey and Chris Babb in the next 24 hours this opens the door to then sign Mickey to our 15th guaranteed deal.
6'9" 242 lb Jonathan Holmes apparently turning some heads in Vegas - mostly for his ability to play some defense against bigger guys plus hitting 4 out of 6 from 3P range.
With just those two skills, he probably has a future in the NBA in its current form. Wonder if the Cs will be able to make room for him somehow.
With just those two skills, he probably has a future in the NBA in its current form. Wonder if the Cs will be able to make room for him somehow.
Pressey waived
gary washburn@GwashburnGlobe
#Celtics have decided to waive G Phil Pressey, according to NBA source.
gary washburn@GwashburnGlobe#Celtics have decided to waive G Phil Pressey, according to NBA source.
pretty disappointed DA couldn't find a conditional 2nd rounder for him...boca said:Pressey waived
#Celtics have decided to waive G Phil Pressey, according to NBA source.
if Luke Ridnour's contract can be traded 4 times...!
Counterpoint: he has no upside, is a below average defender, and is one of the worst offensive guards in the league.cardiacs said:
If you want a bad player, you can find someone with more upside for the minimum. If you want a bench warmer, you can find a more talented one than Pressey.
Holmes "looks" very comfortable out there in complete control of what he is looking to accomplish which speaks volumes for an Undrafted Rookie FA coming into a setting such as this. There will certainly be moves made in the coming weeks.....at the very least minor ones. Hopefully Holmes finds a spots here he looks like he can make it in this league.wade boggs chicken dinner said:
I think Holmes will be a Red Claw along with Mickey. Hopefully Ainge can do some 2-for-1 trades to free up roster space so they can give Holmes a contract rather than expose him to another team picking him up, as he has played almost as well as Mickey of late.
As for Pressey's departure, this is just one more step towards being a better team than last year. Pressey got 600 minutes last year, not huge but enough where he may have cost us a game with his general suckitude. By RPM he was one of the 10 worst PGs in the NBA, so fair to say the Celtics will find better production for those 600 minutes this year.