Angst von Buchholz

[mulluysavage]

Its his knee? Or, "Its his knee?"

http://www.mlb.com/r/article?ymd=20140527&content_id=77061820&notebook_id=77062196&vkey=notebook_bos&c_id=bos

 

[ToeKneeArmAss]

Here is the Verducci article I linked to in the 2012 CB thread on spin rates. I thought it might be helpful to post it in here so people don't have to click back through. 
 
I compiled the info in the table below at the excellent brooksbaseball.net site from the Buchholz player card.  The table below has the pitch use % by month and year with the whiff % per pitch type directly underneath for the same month and year.
 
[tablegrid= Buchholz Pitch Usage % and Whiff % ]Usage % Fourseam Sinker Cutter Curve Change Split 14-Apr 23.95 15.81 30 12.79 6.51 10.93 14-May 36.07 17.42 28.28 7.99 6.15 3.48 Whiff % Fourseam Sinker Change Curve Cutter Split 14-Apr 2.91 4.41 17.86 9.09 15.5 12.77 14-May 5.11 2.35 10 2.56 10.87 17.65               Usage % Fourseam Sinker Cutter Curve Change Split 13-Apr 29.22 21.25 21.25 15.18 13.09 0 13-May 31.3 17.22 22.04 14.07 11.48 3.89 13-Jun 23.26 21.51 29.07 15.12 6.98 4.07 13-Sep 30.1 20.16 26.7 12.3 7.33 3.4 13-Oct 25.07 25.67 24.18 11.64 10.75 2.69 Whiff % Fourseam Sinker Change Curve Cutter Split 13-Apr 8.44 0.89 28.99 6.25 7.14 0 13-May 8.88 6.45 25.81 6.58 8.4 42.86 13-Jun 7.5 5.41 16.67 11.54 10 28.57   13-Sep 8.7 7.79 17.86 8.51 12.75 0   13-Oct 5.95 12.79 19.44 0 12.35 22.22                   Usage % Fourseam Sinker Cutter Curve Slider Change Split 12-Apr 21.47 26.42 21.65 18.53 1.65 10.28 0 12-May 21.41 24.32 18.71 20.58 0 14.14 0.83 12-Jun 35.7 8.04 21.51 13.48 0 15.84 5.44 12-Jul 30.22 18.18 18.43 14 0 11.06 8.11 12-Aug 23.86 15.31 21.47 14.12 0 15.31 9.94 12-Sep 16.47 24.34 21 17.18 0 13.84 7.16 12-Oct 32.73 3.64 21.82 18.18 0 14.55 9.09 Whiff % Fourseam Sinker Change Slider Curve Cutter Split 12-Apr 4.27 0.69 10.71 22.22 12.87 6.78 0 12-May 0.97 4.27 17.65 0 13.13 11.11 0 12-Jun 3.97 2.94 17.91 0 17.54 8.79 17.39 12-Jul 7.32 6.76 17.78 0 3.51 8 21.21 12-Aug 2.5 2.6 18.18 0 9.86 6.48 12 12-Sep 1.45 4.9 27.59 0 20.83 10.23 26.67 12-Oct 5.56 0 37.5 0 0 8.33 0                 Usage % Fourseam Sinker Cutter Curve Change     11-Apr 23.87 29.89 15.7 11.83 18.71     11-May 10.85 37.8 21.53 10.34 19.49     11-Jun 6.5 44.4 18.77 19.49 10.83     Whiff % Fourseam Sinker Change Curve Cutter     11-Apr 3.6 5.04 17.24 3.64 10.96     11-May 1.56 6.28 22.61 8.2 11.81     11-Jun 0 5.69 26.67 7.41 7.69                     Usage % Fourseam Sinker Cutter Curve Change     10-Apr 28.87 22.3 18.31 9.15 21.36     10-May 28.39 26.79 18.5 7.66 18.66 10-Jun 42.56 10.76 19.22 8.47 18.99 10-Jul 12.12 34.85 25.76 8.59 18.69 10-Aug 22.93 31.41 20.04 9.44 16.18 10-Sep 24.67 26.64 20.09 8.73 19.87 Whiff % Fourseam Sinker Change Curve Cutter 10-Apr 5.69 11.58 25.27 17.95 24.36 10-May 5.06 2.38 23.08 8.33 8.62 10-Jun 2.69 0 22.89 2.7 8.33 10-Jul 0 2.9 24.32 5.88 17.65 10-Aug 10.08 6.75 22.62 0 10.58 10-Sep 4.42 4.1 19.78 17.5 5.43 [/tablegrid]

 
An admittedly superficial analysis:
 
He seems to have lost confidence in the two secondary pitches that made us drool in his early years: his change and his curve.
 
Yet, the whiff % on both seems to be holding up.
 
So - why the lack of confidence?
 
Two possibilities:
 
1. He's getting lit up on the ones that aren't missed (this is knowable through deeper examination of the data - and is a rational reason to look for effectiveness elsewhere in his arsenal).
 
OR (cue scary music) ...
 
2. It hurts when he throws these pitches. 
 
My woefully inadequate understanding of anatomy suggests that the curve due to its twisting action engages different muscles than the fastball.  And the change may engage different muscles due to the advanced deceleration of the arm. So perhaps one of our resident othropedic types could opine as to whether it's possible that a structural condition could lead Clay to shy away from those historically highly effective secondary pitches, while still being able to throw a FB 934 mph without pain.
 
Perhaps an analysis that either confirms or eliminates hypothesis 1 will enhance or weaken the validity of hypothesis 2?

 

[Reverend]

Is it possible that there is a difference in that they are whiffing now because they don't expect to see it, whereas they used to whiff even if they thought it might be coming?
 
Which is to say: would the whiff rate be the same if he threw it more?
 
Obviously, we don't have data, but the issue of which direction the causation flows is key and, also obviously, I dunno.

 

[soxfan80000001]

Fourseam		Sinker		Cutter		Curve		Change		Split		Slider
	Usage	Whiff	Usage	Whiff	Usage	Whiff	Usage	Whiff	Usage	Whiff	Usage	Whiff	Usage	Whiff
10-Apr	28.9	5.7	22.3	11.6	18.3	24.4	9.2	18.0	21.4	25.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10-May	28.4	5.1	26.8	2.4	18.5	8.6	7.7	8.3	18.7	23.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10-Jun	42.6	2.7	10.8	0.0	19.2	8.3	8.5	2.7	19.0	22.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10-Jul	12.1	0.0	34.9	2.9	25.8	17.7	8.6	5.9	18.7	24.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10-Aug	22.9	10.1	31.4	6.8	20.0	10.6	9.4	0.0	16.2	22.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10-Sep	24.7	4.4	26.6	4.1	20.1	5.4	8.7	17.5	19.9	19.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-Apr	23.9	3.6	29.9	5.0	15.7	11.0	11.8	3.6	18.7	17.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-May	10.9	1.6	37.8	6.3	21.5	11.8	10.3	8.2	19.5	22.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-Jun	6.5	0.0	44.4	5.7	18.8	7.7	19.5	7.4	10.8	26.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-Apr	21.5	4.3	26.4	0.7	21.7	6.8	18.5	12.9	10.3	10.7	0.0	0.0	1.7	22.2
12-May	21.4	1.0	24.3	4.3	18.7	11.1	20.6	13.1	14.1	17.7	0.8	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-Jun	35.7	4.0	8.0	2.9	21.5	8.8	13.5	17.5	15.8	17.9	5.4	17.4	0.0	0.0
12-Jul	30.2	7.3	18.2	6.8	18.4	8.0	14.0	3.5	11.1	17.8	8.1	21.2	0.0	0.0
12-Aug	23.9	2.5	15.3	2.6	21.5	6.5	14.1	9.9	15.3	18.2	9.9	12.0	0.0	0.0
12-Sep	16.5	1.5	24.3	4.9	21.0	10.2	17.2	20.8	13.8	27.6	7.2	26.7	0.0	0.0
12-Oct	32.7	5.6	3.6	0.0	21.8	8.3	18.2	0.0	14.6	37.5	9.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
13-Apr	29.2	8.4	21.3	0.9	21.3	7.1	15.2	6.3	13.1	29.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
13-May	31.3	8.9	17.2	6.5	22.0	8.4	14.1	6.6	11.5	25.8	3.9	42.9	0.0	0.0
13-Jun	23.3	7.5	21.5	5.4	29.1	10.0	15.1	11.5	7.0	16.7	4.1	28.6	0.0	0.0
13-Sep	30.1	8.7	20.2	7.8	26.7	12.8	12.3	8.5	7.3	17.9	3.4	0.0	0.0	0.0
13-Oct	25.1	6.0	25.7	12.8	24.2	12.4	11.6	0.0	10.8	19.4	2.7	22.2	0.0	0.0
14-Apr	24.0	2.9	15.8	4.4	30.0	15.5	12.8	9.1	6.5	17.9	10.9	12.8	0.0	0.0
14-May	36.1	5.1	17.4	2.4	28.3	10.9	8.0	2.6	6.2	10.0	3.5	17.7	0.0	0.0

 
 
Same stuff as above, slightly re-arranged.

 

[MakMan44]

http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2014/06/08/clay-buchholz-on-simulated-game-something-thats-going-to-get-me-moving-forward/
 

“Whenever I was a little bit late today, I was able to correct to the next pitch instead of a whole bunch of baserunners and an inning blowing up on me. It was a lot better today,” Buchholz told reporters. “I feel like it was a straight line going to the plate, but being over-rotated makes you throw across your body, and that’s sort of why I was falling off a lot to the first-base side. The direction was a lot better today. Whenever I did mess up, I was able to fix it within the pitch.”

 
Sounds like most of his issues really were mental which leaves me wondering how well he's going to do when he gets back on the mound for an actual game.

 

[joe dokes]

http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2014/06/08/clay-buchholz-on-simulated-game-something-thats-going-to-get-me-moving-forward/
 
 
 
 
Sounds like most of his issues really were mental which leaves me wondering how well he's going to do when he gets back on the mound for an actual game.

 
 
I think EVERY pitcher in a horrible slump would sound the same way.  The only difference is that Buchholz attempts to talk in great detail about it instead of just giving in Nuke LaLoosh quotes.

 

[soxhop411]

Cherington was on with Jim Bowden today...
 
JIM BOWDEN ‏@JimBowdenESPNxm  19s
Cherington told us that they have identified a few subltle changes with Buchholz delivery and these adjustments should help his secondary Ps

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Does that translate to tipping? Or is it more about the actual execution of the pitch, do you think?

 

[Al Zarilla]

Does that translate to tipping? Or is it more about the actual execution of the pitch, do you think?

Buchholz tipping his pitches? Is there an allusion to that I'm missing?

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Buchholz tipping his pitches? Is there an allusion to that I'm missing?

 
No allusion to it, it just occurred to me that tipping is something that could conceivably make one or more secondary pitches less effective, and could be fixed by delivery tweaks. Just hoping some of the pitching mavens around here could shed light on whether that's a likely interpretation of what Ben said or not.

 

[Al Zarilla]

 
No allusion to it, it just occurred to me that tipping is something that could conceivably make one or more secondary pitches less effective, and could be fixed by delivery tweaks. Just hoping some of the pitching mavens around here could shed light on whether that's a likely interpretation of what Ben said or not.

Seems like in the past when some Sox pitchers were thought to be pitch tipping, Beckett for example, he'd have a really bad day with the long ball, giving up like 5 rocket HRs in a game. When a major league hitter knows what's coming, it's like batting practice. Buchholz seems to be more a victim of a bad BABIP and walks. BWDIK.

 

[mabrowndog]

Maureen Mullen
 

 
Righthander Clay Buchholz, on the DL since May 27 with a hyper-extended left knee, is scheduled to begin his rehab assignment Friday, throwing five innings for Pawtucket.

 

[mabrowndog]

With tonight's game rained out...
 
Brian MacPherson ‏@brianmacp 
PawSox announce Clay Buchholz will start first game of Saturday doubleheader, starting at 5:05 p.m.

 

[mabrowndog]

Edes on Buchholz' latest recovery regimen:
 

The Red Sox did not leave Buchholz to work these things out alone. Pitching coach Juan Nieves was fully invested, counseling Buchholz through video sessions and side work. Manager John Farrell met with him several times. His fellow starters all came out to watch him throw a simulated game Sunday in Detroit in an impressive show of solidarity.
 
And in his hour of need, Buchholz also turned to the man he has looked to so many times before when he has faltered. Last week, after finishing a bullpen session in Cleveland, Buchholz came up the clubhouse stairs. Trailing behind him was his father, Skip.
 
"He's been somebody throughout my career I go to," Buchholz said of his father. "He knows my mechanics and delivery better than anybody because he taught me everything.
 
"It's not necessarily that he truly understands what it's really like up here, because all they're doing is watching on TV -- thinking, 'Oh, he shouldn't have thrown that pitch' -- but it's good to have someone like him around. He went to Cleveland and Detroit and was home in Boston the last four days. He traveled around, gave his insight. It helped out."

Buchholz thinks he may have learned why he has been so ineffective. There have been some minor mechanical adjustments in his delivery; he said he noticed a big difference in his simulated game Sunday.
 
"When you're in the middle of a game and the strikes you throw get hit, it's hard to say, 'OK, step back and do less.' You always try to do more when you're struggling," Buchholz said. "That's what I was doing. I was trying to make every pitch perfect. I either was missing with it or missing in the zone, and every time I missed in the zone I was getting hit.
 
"It was tough to think about it out there when all that stuff is going on. The sim game I threw was a big step in the right direction as far as mechanics and getting feedback from the guys who were hitting. The ball was moving good when I was down in the zone. I haven't been down in the zone all year."

But Buchholz, who turns 30 in two months, knows more than tweaking his mechanics is required of him to become the pitcher he was. Yes, he may have altered his arm slot last season to find a position that would not make his shoulder hurt, and the movement of his pitches may have suffered for it, but it still goes beyond finding a way to thrive in new circumstances.
 
Buchholz needs his head right too.
 
"Yeah, it's about confidence," he said. "You've got to be confident and know that the pitch you're going to throw is going to work."

 
More from Gordon's ESPN Boston colleague, Jack McCluskey:
 

During his DL stay, Buchholz said he’s thrown several extended bullpen sessions (45-65 pitches) at higher-than-normal intensity and a simulated game, focusing on making the needed tweaks to his delivery.

Opponents were hitting .339 against Buchholz in 2014, far and away the worst average he’s allowed in his career (second highest is .299 in 2008).

So when he faces the Charlotte Knights on Saturday, Buchholz won’t be treating the outing like a glorified spring training tuneup. He wants to see results, and quickly.

“Hopefully just one start,” he said, asked the timetable for returning to the big club. “I don’t have to build up arm strength. That’s usually what rehab assignments are for, is to go out and gradually build your arm strength. But I hadn’t stopped throwing. I’ve been throwing bullpens the whole time. I feel like the arm strength’s gotten even better just by playing long toss and the bullpens and everything.

“So if everything goes fine tomorrow and there’s no hiccups, I don’t see a reason why [I have to stay down] ... unless they just wanted me to throw another game. Hopefully this will be my only one.”

 

[knucklecup]

Final line for Clay Buchholz in his rehab start for Pawtucket = 4.2 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 0 BB, 5 SO. 62 pitches 42 strikes.

 

[bobesox]

Does this qualify as hiccups?

 

[mabrowndog]

Final line for Clay Buchholz in his rehab start for Pawtucket = 4.2 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 0 BB, 5 SO. 62 pitches 42 strikes.

 
Carlos Sanchez got him for a solo shot (1-0 pitch) to lead off the 4th, and Blake Tekotte did the same with 2 outs in the 5th (1-1 pitch) to send him to the showers. Sanchez also tripled in the first & scored on a grounder. Both were batting lefty (Sanchez is a switch hitter). So really, there's all the day's damage on three pitches.
 
Still, no walks is good. Lots of strikes is even better.

 

[Toe Nash]

Would like to know the breakdown of swinging strikes vs called. Seems like that was as big a problem as any (until the last start where he couldn't find the zone) and would go a long way towards telling us if he has "stuff" back, even against minor leaguers. Anyone have this?

 

[MakMan44]

Buchholz giving up homers is definitely not a good sign.

He hasn't pitched in a real game situation in, what, a month? Like browndog said, the fact that he didn't give up any walks is incredibly encouraging. 

 

[Plympton91]

The fact that he didn't dominate minor leaguers is not.

 

[soxhop411]

The fact that he didn't dominate minor leaguers is not.

Read the post above you. He has not pitched in almost a month.

 

[mabrowndog]

Jesus H. Christ...
 
The main purpose of the rehab outing was to repeat his newly refined and tuned mechanics, to do so while delivering pitches in the strike zone, and to avoid incurring any injuries. That's it. I guarantee that if you ask Cherington, Farrell, Nieves, and Clay himself, that's all that was on Clay Buchholz's baseball to-do list for the day.
 
IT WAS NOT TO AVOID GIVING UP HOME RUNS.
 
Would it have been nice had he not been tagged for 2 dingers and a triple? Of course. But that wasn't the primary goal. Location issues (if there were any on those three hits; because for all we know right now they all could have been great chase swings on well-spotted pitches) can be further worked on once all concerned are satisfied that tonight's objective was achieved.

 

[Plympton91]

Read the post above you. He has not pitched in almost a month.

Read the articles above the post. Yes, he has been pitching regularly.

 

[MakMan44]

The fact that he didn't dominate minor leaguers is not.

I think he did fine. It'd be a lot less encouraging if it was AA or lower but it really does sound like he just made a few mistake pitches that he didn't get away with. Hopefully the results are better next time out but I'm with browndog, the BB total and strike to balls ratio was the most important note.

 

[Cuzittt]

Read the articles above the post. Yes, he has been pitching regularly.

Throwing (even off a mound) is different than pitching to live batters. You know this.

I would hope the Sox do not call him immediately up though. Another appearance in Pawtucket would be useful.

 

[richgedman'sghost]

Read the articles above the post. Yes, he has been pitching regularly.

Plympton, I'm not certain if you're being serious or not. Usually I find your baseball posts to be quite intelligent and thought out. Hopefully you recognize the difference between throwing off a bullpen on the side or the equilvent of batting practice and facing live hitters in a game situation. It was his first game pitching since the adjustments to his mechanics were discovered. As previously mentioned by Mark Brown and others, the importance of this outing were to maintain his mechanics etc..In addition Clay was facing AAA hitters not rookie or A ballers. Overall, a little patience is in order.

 

[Vegas Sox Fan]

I hope Clay pitches 7 no hit innings next time out so I can check this thread and hear about how he's wasting bullets in the minors. 

 

[MakMan44]

https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/478632216998993920

 

[mabrowndog]

Clay's done after 6 shutout IP on 2 H, 2 BB, 1 HBP & 5 Ks.
 
He had two brief bouts with control issues during the game: 7 balls in his first 8 pitches of the game, and then the 2 singles & a 4-pitch walk to load the bases in the 5th with no outs. But he sacked up and got out of trouble each time.
 
87 pitches, 51 strikes (59%) for the game. After the 8-pitch/7-ball start, it was 50 of 79 pitches for strikes (63%), with 11 on swings & misses.

 

[mfried]

Clay's done after 6 shutout IP on 2 H, 2 BB, 1 HBP & 5 Ks.
 
He had two brief bouts with control issues during the game: 7 balls in his first 8 pitches of the game, and then the 2 singles & a 4-pitch walk to load the bases in the 5th with no outs. But he sacked up and got out of trouble each time.
 
87 pitches, 51 strikes (59%) for the game. After the 8-pitch/7-ball start, it was 50 of 79 pitches for strikes (63%), with 11 on swings & misses.

Shockingly good results.  Give him a chance to look good in a couple of big-club starts and trade him (as part of a package) for Stanton.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Shockingly good results.  Give him a chance to look good in a couple of big-club starts and trade him (as part of a package) for Stanton.

 
That's a good one.  I needed a good belly laugh today.
 
What in the world would the Marlins want with Buchholz and the $13-39M he'd be owed after this season.  If they move Stanton, it's to save money in future years, not add salary.

 

[MakMan44]

Not to mention they have a fair amount of young pitching already. Clay may be a "known quantity" but it comes with a pretty sizable medical report.

 

[LostinNJ]

Arg. I can't beieve he's wasting his bullets in AAA.

 

[soxhop411]

Scott Lauber ‏@ScottLauber  44s
Clay Buchholz will make his next start for #RedSox. No decision yet on move to open rotation spot

 

[mfried]

 
That's a good one.  I needed a good belly laugh today.
 
What in the world would the Marlins want with Buchholz and the $13-39M he'd be owed after this season.  If they move Stanton, it's to save money in future years, not add salary.

Just joking.

 

[mabrowndog]

Aaron Leibowitz
 

 
"His changeup feel and execution was much improved, and the shape to his overall pitches was consistent, particularly with the way he threw his changeup today," said Farrell. "His final start was one that I think we all felt was needed, but he went about it the right way and comes back with some momentum."
 
Buchholz flew to Oakland after Thursday's start to rejoin the big league team. His Red Sox return will likely come next week, though Farrell is not yet sure what day.
 
"We've got a number of things that are kind of moving parts, and I think as we get through this weekend, those decisions will become more clear," Farrell said.

 

[lexrageorge]

Arg. I can't beieve he's wasting his bullets in AAA.

I know; the team could really use his bat in the lineup right now.

 

[BosRedSox5]

I can never figure this guy out. 

Sure, I know he only pitched against the Astros today... but sometimes Clay looks like an absolute mess... and on other days he throws a complete game, three hit shutout while whiffing 12 and not walking anyone. Honestly, what causes a guy to go from looking like Cy Young to looking like a ham and egger every other appearance? 

Are his problems mechanical and thus prone to getting out of whack? Is he overly dependent on "stuff" and he has a hard time getting a feel for his pitches sometimes? What is up with him? 

 

[jscola85]

Didn't watch the game but heard it on the radio.  Sounded like his 2-seamer was just killing it today.  When he can throw that at 92-95 with great action, it is killer on lefties, and generates a lot of groundballs/weak contact.  The problem this year is he either wasn't getting the action we are used to seeing or he didn't have the command of it.  Today it seems he had both.

 

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

There have only been 37 shutouts in MLB this year so far. He's in some nice company at tied for 7th for most shutouts, with 1. 
 
It's hard not to give him a lot of rope when he's so clearly capable of excellence, but if he needs another player to make half his starts every year, that's certainly hard for roster construction. 
 
Having to eat half a dozen starts where he puts up a 6 ERA is tough, too. 

 

[soxhop411]

There have only been 37 shutouts in MLB this year so far. He's in some nice company at tied for 7th for most shutouts, with 1. 
 
It's hard not to give him a lot of rope when he's so clearly capable of excellence, but if he needs another player to make half his starts every year, that's certainly hard for roster construction. 
 
Having to eat half a dozen starts where he puts up a 6 ERA is tough, too. 

Do we even know if he was healthy for the first part of this year? When he is healthy (see last year and his starts this year since being off the DL) he pitches like a #2 like you said...

 

[Plympton91]

That was a season changing performance by Buchholz today. If I'm Cherington that was the sign I would have been looking for to be putting the trades on hold for the next two weeks. Except perhaps Peavy, for whom a trade would probably actually improve the 2014 team.

This pitching staff can support a 10 game winning streak if they get any run support at all, and that appears to be improving ever so little.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

He also had a very friendly umpire who had a nice wide strike zone for both teams today.  The Sox adjusted pretty quickly (and the 'Stros pitchers didn't take as much advantage as Clay did), but I bet if you plotted out his called strikes you'd see more than a dozen that were 2-4 inches outside (and mostly on the upper part of the zone)

 

[Rovin Romine]

That was a season changing performance by Buchholz today. If I'm Cherington that was the sign I would have been looking for to be putting the trades on hold for the next two weeks. Except perhaps Peavy, for whom a trade would probably actually improve the 2014 team.

This pitching staff can support a 10 game winning streak if they get any run support at all, and that appears to be improving ever so little.

 
Seattle is 6 games over .500 at the second WC spot.  Baltimore is 10 games over .500 for the AL East.  The Angels are 20 games over .500 for the first WC spot.  
 
The Sox are 9 games under .500. 
 
So we'd really only need a 15 game winning streak, while the rest of the AL played .500 ball, to be in contention for the second WC spot.  Or (to avoid the playoff game) we'd need a 19 game winning streak while Baltimore played .500 ball and Toronto, NYY, and Tampa didn't improve their own records.  And then we'd have to play at an over .500 clip (most likely) to maintain that spot.  
 
Has the "season" really "changed"?  Buchholz has 14 starts left?  Even if he went 14-0, that's only a 7 game swing in the overall standings.  

 

[jscola85]

I don't think it necessarily changes this season, but a couple more of those starts from Buchholz may change their willingness to make a more substantial trade.  If they feel really good going into next year with at least a 1-2 punch of Lackey-Buchholz (and hopefully Lester as well), they may feel closer to competing in 2015 and thus less willing to give up assets of near-term value (2014-2016) in exchanges for assets of long-term value (2016+).

 

[MalzoneExpress]

 
Seattle is 6 games over .500 at the second WC spot.  Baltimore is 10 games over .500 for the AL East.  The Angels are 20 games over .500 for the first WC spot.  
 
The Sox are 9 games under .500. 
 
So we'd really only need a 15 game winning streak, while the rest of the AL played .500 ball, to be in contention for the second WC spot.  Or (to avoid the playoff game) we'd need a 19 game winning streak while Baltimore played .500 ball and Toronto, NYY, and Tampa didn't improve their own records.  And then we'd have to play at an over .500 clip (most likely) to maintain that spot.  
 
Has the "season" really "changed"?  Buchholz has 14 starts left?  Even if he went 14-0, that's only a 7 game swing in the overall standings.  

 

[Drek717]

That was a season changing performance by Buchholz today. If I'm Cherington that was the sign I would have been looking for to be putting the trades on hold for the next two weeks. Except perhaps Peavy, for whom a trade would probably actually improve the 2014 team.

This pitching staff can support a 10 game winning streak if they get any run support at all, and that appears to be improving ever so little.

Good god lets hope Cherington shares none of these same notions.  Sell anything not tied down for 2015 except the handful of guys they're willing to pay for (Lester, Koji, Miller would be the only ones worth considering really).
 
There needs to be better performance, I'll grant you that, but the idea of such an improvement putting the Sox back into contention after over half a season of bottom dweller player is just not realistic.  Get the young guys hitting, get Buchholz and the young guys pitching well.  Then we'll know how much is needed to get back into it for 2015.

 

[judyb]

Good god lets hope Cherington shares none of these same notions.  Sell anything not tied down for 2015 except the handful of guys they're willing to pay for (Lester, Koji, Miller would be the only ones worth considering really).
 
There needs to be better performance, I'll grant you that, but the idea of such an improvement putting the Sox back into contention after over half a season of bottom dweller player is just not realistic.  Get the young guys hitting, get Buchholz and the young guys pitching well.  Then we'll know how much is needed to get back into it for 2015.

Does it even matter if they're willing to pay and are going to try to keep Lester, Koji, and Miller? What exactly are they going to pass up in trades for Peavy, Drew, Gomes, Breslow, or Badenhop that they can't get in post deadline deals or would regret missing the opportunity to get later?

 

[Mugsy's Jock]

The more important question...why would teams make trades for Peavy, Drew, Gomes, Breslow, or Badenhop now when it's quite likely that better players will become available? I doubt there's much of a market for these guys yet, you'd have to give them away.

Well, the Cardinals getting a few extra starts out of Peavy by acquiring him now could have a tangible effect on their standings at the end of the season.
 
And the same is true for the other spare parts, though less obviously than for a starting pitcher.

 

[judyb]

Well, the Cardinals getting a few extra starts out of Peavy by acquiring him now could have a tangible effect on their standings at the end of the season.
 
And the same is true for the other spare parts, though less obviously than for a starting pitcher.

I think if the Cardinals or any other team felt that way about acquiring Peavy, he would already be gone, whether the Red Sox have given up on 2014 or not.