Analysis of Celtics Games, '21-'22 Season

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Interesting that both MS and JB made comments that the Cs should run their offense through the bigs. I expect TL to get more touches but it will be interesting to see whether the Cs start going to him in crunch time. TL probably the best vision on the team.

Taylor Snow: "Jaylen Brown: "The more we play like we did today – playing through bigs, making the game easy – we start to grow, we start to learn, we start to win. And that’s what Celtics basketball is about."

Keith Smith: "Smart said the Celtics should keep running their offense through their bigs: "It pulls the defense away from the rim. That opens up a lot of stuff for us. We can cut, we can move the ball, get good looks. We have bigs who can pass. We need to keep using them."

View: https://twitter.com/taylorcsnow/status/1477032618155778049?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1477032618155778049%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.redditmedia.com%2Fmediaembed%2Frt41iu%3Fresponsive%3Dtrueis_nightmode%3Dfalse


View: https://twitter.com/KeithSmithNBA/status/1477029904445325315?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1477029904445325315%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.redditmedia.com%2Fmediaembed%2Frt3vpb%3Fresponsive%3Dtrueis_nightmode%3Dfalse
 

Cesar Crespo

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Interesting that both MS and JB made comments that the Cs should run their offense through the bigs. I expect TL to get more touches but it will be interesting to see whether the Cs start going to him in crunch time. TL probably the best vision on the team.

Taylor Snow: "Jaylen Brown: "The more we play like we did today – playing through bigs, making the game easy – we start to grow, we start to learn, we start to win. And that’s what Celtics basketball is about."

Keith Smith: "Smart said the Celtics should keep running their offense through their bigs: "It pulls the defense away from the rim. That opens up a lot of stuff for us. We can cut, we can move the ball, get good looks. We have bigs who can pass. We need to keep using them."

View: https://twitter.com/taylorcsnow/status/1477032618155778049?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1477032618155778049%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.redditmedia.com%2Fmediaembed%2Frt41iu%3Fresponsive%3Dtrueis_nightmode%3Dfalse


View: https://twitter.com/KeithSmithNBA/status/1477029904445325315?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1477029904445325315%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.redditmedia.com%2Fmediaembed%2Frt3vpb%3Fresponsive%3Dtrueis_nightmode%3Dfalse
I have been saying this all year. They haven't been using the one skill that makes TL more than fungible. Hopefully, they can play that way with Tatum.

edit: And Schroder. Just trade him already.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Interesting that both MS and JB made comments that the Cs should run their offense through the bigs. I expect TL to get more touches but it will be interesting to see whether the Cs start going to him in crunch time. TL probably the best vision on the team.
I think it is an obvious move for them now. One thing that should make it appealing is that they have 2 centers who can do this, so it is not like they need to change their offense when Rob is out of the game. Another is that Rob is not good on the low block. He's great at putbacks and lobs, but the next time he successfully posts someone up will probably be the first.
 

NomarsFool

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I liked seeing Grant generate some of his own offense by posting up some smaller players. Having him hit 3s is awesome, of course, but he also needs to be multidimensional. He’s also a pretty good cutter, I think.

I really am curious whether Ime thinks Al and RW together are his best lineup, or whether that is just a function of having wings out of commission?
 

Fishy1

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It gives Ime another reason to stagger Horford and Al's minutes (which should make both of them more effective) and puts so much less pressure on Jaylen and Jayson to create and, frankly, dribble. Makes a guy like Pritchard more viable too. With the floor spread and guys cutting, anybody who leaves Pritchard to double-team Jaylen or Tatum is asking for a wide-open three-pointer.

I'm honestly with HRB, I think this team has a big second-half run in them if they can just stay on the floor. It's a much deeper team than last year even if Schroder is sent packing: Grant Williams transforming into an excellent role-player plus Richardson playing like he has is probably as much depth as they need as long as the next man up is a shooter. And if the shooting comes around just as they're making these other adjustments... watch out. I mean, even if just Tatum starts shooting better, I'd be happy. But if him, Horford, Smart, and Brown all get hot at the same time? That would be fun.

I was never in the "this team is mentally weak camp." I think they've played really hard for a lot of the year on defense, and worked just as hard to get their offense working. They've had some miserable lapses late in games due to some hero-ball-nonsense, but even that we wouldn't have minded if at least some of those shots went in. It would be nice for them to find some rhythm by having the bigs run the offense. I wouldn't be suprised at all if that launches them toward the top of the standings.

A contender they are not. But I think there's a good chance this will be a really fun second-half of the regular season.
 

benhogan

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I liked seeing Grant generate some of his own offense by posting up some smaller players. Having him hit 3s is awesome, of course, but he also needs to be multidimensional. He’s also a pretty good cutter, I think.

I really am curious whether Ime thinks Al and RW together are his best lineup, or whether that is just a function of having wings out of commission?
with the New Year, maybe new beginnings?

Adv metrics (off/def/net rtg) 2-man lineups:

Horford/ Brown 360mins 104.4 / 99.5 / +4.9
Horford/Tatum 555mins 105 / 104.3 / +.7
Horford/Smart 549mins 107.1 / 107.5 / -.4

Horford/TL 235mins 98.1 / 102.3 / -4.2 (20 games)


TL/Brown 420mins 107.8 / 101.1 / +6.7
TL/Tatum 605mins 109.7 / 104.7 / +4.3
TL/ Smart 616mins 109.3 / 103.7 / +5.6

They are playing 2BIGZ primarily with Smart/Tatum/Brown, our 3 best/most efficient players, and they absolutely suck together. That's really amazing they are that inefficient.

Everything we were concerned about with 2BIGZ played out as expected. Clogged lanes, not enough 3pt shooting, less offensive efficiency when both are on the floor
The IMEdeau effect with the excessive minutes played by going 2BIGZ has worn Horford down in-game + fewer games played by both since TL is injury prone/Al age.

https://www.nba.com/stats/lineups/advanced/?Season=2021-22&SeasonType=Regular Season&TeamID=1610612738&GroupQuantity=2&sort=GROUP_NAME&dir=-1
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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They are 8-12 against 500 or better teams, which is ok I guess. 9-7 vs under 500 isn’t. Not sure what to make of it, especially when there are 9 teams within two games of 500.
 

Cesar Crespo

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They are 8-12 against 500 or better teams, which is ok I guess. 9-7 vs under 500 isn’t. Not sure what to make of it, especially when there are 9 teams within two games of 500.
There are like 5-6 good teams and a bunch of mediocrity. And no one has been playing at full strength. It's been a season of attrition.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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with the New Year, maybe new beginnings?

Adv metrics (off/def/net rtg) 2-man lineups:

Horford/ Brown 360mins 104.4 / 99.5 / +4.9
Horford/Tatum 555mins 105 / 104.3 / +.7
Horford/Smart 549mins 107.1 / 107.5 / -.4

Horford/TL 235mins 98.1 / 102.3 / -4.2 (20 games)


TL/Brown 420mins 107.8 / 101.1 / +6.7
TL/Tatum 605mins 109.7 / 104.7 / +4.3
TL/ Smart 616mins 109.3 / 103.7 / +5.6

They are playing 2BIGZ primarily with Smart/Tatum/Brown, our 3 best/most efficient players, and they absolutely suck together. That's really amazing they are that inefficient.

Everything we were concerned about with 2BIGZ played out as expected. Clogged lanes, not enough 3pt shooting, less offensive efficiency when both are on the floor
The IMEdeau effect with the excessive minutes played by going 2BIGZ has worn Horford down in-game + fewer games played by both since TL is injury prone/Al age.

https://www.nba.com/stats/lineups/advanced/?Season=2021-22&SeasonType=Regular Season&TeamID=1610612738&GroupQuantity=2&sort=GROUP_NAME&dir=-1
TL and Al are net -4.6 in 107 1Q minutes. That sounds bad but it's the 4th best 2-man lineup the Cs have (only two 2-man lineups the Cs have that have played over 100 minutes are positive: JB and TL at +12.1 in 121 1Q minutes and MS and TL are +0.8 in 185 1Q minutes. (Just to be complete, JB and MS are -1.1.in 139 1Q minutes).

In the 4Q, however, they are a disaster: -41 NRtg. Interestingly, however, according to NBA.com they have only played 16 minutes together. That seems low to me but who I am to argue with NBA.com?

So to answer the question upthread, I don't think Ime plays Al and TL together because he thinks it's the best lineup but likely it's best for team dynamics. (And, as a short aside, if playing Al and TL together at the beginning of games allows Ime to keep Al and TL apart at the end of the games, that would probably be a net positive.)
 
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chilidawg

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TL and Al are net -4.6 in 107 1Q minutes. That sounds bad but it's the 4th best 2-man lineup the Cs have (only two 2-man lineups the Cs have that have played over 100 minutes are positive: JB and TL at +12.1 in 121 1Q minutes and MS and TL are +0.8 in 185 1Q minutes. Just to be complete, JB and MS are -1.1.in 139 1Q minutes).

In the 4Q, however, they are a disaster: -41 NRtg. Interestingly, however, according to NBA.com they have only played 16 minutes together. That seems low to me but who I am to argue with NBA.com?

So to answer the question upthread, I don't think Ime plays Al and TL together because he thinks it's the best lineup but likely it's best for team dynamics. (And, as a short aside, if playing Al and TL together at the beginning of games allows Ime to keep Al and TL apart at the end of the games, that would probably be a net positive.)
FWIW the finishing lineups in both halves against the Suns had Richardson in place of Horford.
 

benhogan

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TL and Al are net -4.6 in 107 1Q minutes. That sounds bad but it's the 4th best 2-man lineup the Cs have (only two 2-man lineups the Cs have that have played over 100 minutes are positive: JB and TL at +12.1 in 121 1Q minutes and MS and TL are +0.8 in 185 1Q minutes. Just to be complete, JB and MS are -1.1.in 139 1Q minutes).

In the 4Q, however, they are a disaster: -41 NRtg. Interestingly, however, according to NBA.com they have only played 16 minutes together. That seems low to me but who I am to argue with NBA.com?

So to answer the question upthread, I don't think Ime plays Al and TL together because he thinks it's the best lineup but likely it's best for team dynamics. (And, as a short aside, if playing Al and TL together at the beginning of games allows Ime to keep Al and TL apart at the end of the games, that would probably be a net positive.)
The sample size is small enough with 20 games (I'd usually wait until 40 games to post this stuff). Cutting it down further to just Q1 and comparing it to a smaller set of other combos is just noise.

I'm not sure what you mean by "Team Dynamics"? Do you mean "starter" label? Is starting Q1 and Q3 that important to Rob or Horford, if it is just show them the math.

I believe Al and TL would both be fresher in Q4 if they played fewer minutes BUT I can't prove that since IME is dead set on going THIBz on them. Overplaying them was a concern of several to open the season. I can't see how anybody could look at the #s and then watch the way Horford has played when fresh as opposed to getting huge minutes.
 

DJnVa

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Cs have 8 wins against teams with .500 or better records. They have the 2nd most such wins in the East and the 3rd overall.

And they can still lose to G-league teams.

View: https://twitter.com/StoolGreenie/status/1477019896991006721
Well yes. Because they've played 20 such games--they're 8-12. On that list they are ahead of the 7-6 Bulls, the 6-5 Bucks, the 8-8 Sixers, the 8-5 Suns, the 8-5 Jazz, the 10-5 Grizzlies.

By winning percentage they're 14th, which is...fine, I guess. More games against the below .500 teams from here on out.
 

Eddie Jurak

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It gives Ime another reason to stagger Horford and Al's minutes (which should make both of them more effective) and puts so much less pressure on Jaylen and Jayson to create and, frankly, dribble. Makes a guy like Pritchard more viable too. With the floor spread and guys cutting, anybody who leaves Pritchard to double-team Jaylen or Tatum is asking for a wide-open three-pointer.
The offensive future (for this season I mean) could be to have Rob and Al generate some offense from up top hitting guys like Smart, Grant, Richardson, Langford on cuts or post ups. It doesn't have to be perfect, but has to be good enough to take some pressure off of Brown and Tatum, give the team something reliable to go to when teams throw everything they have at J&J..
 

benhogan

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Well yes. Because they've played 20 such games--they're 8-12. On that list they are ahead of the 7-6 Bulls, the 6-5 Bucks, the 8-8 Sixers, the 8-5 Suns, the 8-5 Jazz, the 10-5 Grizzlies.

By winning percentage they're 14th, which is...fine, I guess. More games against the below .500 teams from here on out.
The schedule really lightens up over the final 46 games. Over half of the remaining games are at home. Boston has the easiest schedule remaining of all 30 NBA teams.

-Keith Smart
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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The sample size is small enough with 20 games (I'd usually wait until 40 games to post this stuff). Cutting it down further to just Q1 and comparing it to a smaller set of other combos is just noise.

I'm not sure what you mean by "Team Dynamics"? Do you mean "starter" label? Is starting Q1 and Q3 that important to Rob or Horford, if it is just show them the math.

I believe Al and TL would both be fresher in Q4 if they played fewer minutes BUT I can't prove that since IME is dead set on going THIBz on them. Overplaying them was a concern of several to open the season. I can't see how anybody could look at the #s and then watch the way Horford has played when fresh as opposed to getting huge minutes.
Al mentioned before the season that starting was important to him.

Also, if starting Al allows Ime to sit him down ghe stretch, that's probably a good thing even though the Cs have been awful down the stretch thus far. Al and TL down the stretch would make things worse IMO except in certain specific matchups.
 

benhogan

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Al mentioned before the season that starting was important to him.

Also, if starting Al allows Ime to sit him down ghe stretch, that's probably a good thing even though the Cs have been awful down the stretch thus far. Al and TL down the stretch would make things worse IMO except in certain specific matchups.
Starting is important to every player in the NBA. Horford was mostly added because he has a friendly contract compared to Kemba's. I liked the deal and like Al, but he's getting paid huge $$$, he should be fine playing from the bench if it helps the team.

Are you saying playing TL and Horford together down the stretch would be bad BUT it makes sense to start them for the first half of Q1 & Q3? Why play them together at all and keep both fresh throughout the game/season.

2BIGZ makes Horford play more perimeter defense, away from the rim. Plus makes him a 3pt shooting perimeter player, where opposing wings can easily guard him.

Just note, IME is playing Horford more mpg than Brad did 3 seasons ago
. That's outrageous. I love Al but he's not close to that player and he'll tire easier. Horford's efficiency has been slipping as the season has worn on. Go rewatch yesterday's game to see Al get beat on the perimeter repeatedly.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Starting is important to every player in the NBA. Horford was mostly added because he has a friendly contract compared to Kemba's. I liked the deal and like Al, but he's getting paid huge $$$, he should be fine playing from the bench if it helps the team.

Are you saying playing TL and Horford together down the stretch would be bad BUT it makes sense to start them for the first half of Q1 & Q3? Why play them together at all and keep both fresh throughout the game/season.

2BIGZ makes Horford play more perimeter defense, away from the rim. Plus makes him a 3pt shooting perimeter player, where opposing wings can easily guard him.

Just note, IME is playing Horford more mpg than Brad did 3 seasons ago. That's outrageous. I love Al but he's not close to that player and he'll tire easier. Horford's efficiency has been slipping as the season has worn on. Go rewatch yesterday's game to see Al get beat on the perimeter repeatedly.
Agree that in a perfect world that players would do "what's best for the team" without complaining. But in the realistic world, particularly given Horford's elder statesmen role on the Cs, some deference is probably given to him. Horford doesn't get to where he is without supreme self-confidence. If he didn't play the first 7 minutes of each half and the last 7 minutes of the game, it's going to be difficult to get him the minutes he thinks he deserves.

If playing him to start the halves means he is okay with not playing down the stretch, I'm okay with it. As mentioned above, Al and TL haven't been that bad together to start the games, at least comparatively.

BTW, this is all speculation and I may be wrong about the whole thing. But I thought it was super interesting that TL and Al have only played 16 4Q minutes together all season.
 

benhogan

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Agree that in a perfect world that players would do "what's best for the team" without complaining. But in the realistic world, particularly given Horford's elder statesmen role on the Cs, some deference is probably given to him. Horford doesn't get to where he is without supreme self-confidence. If he didn't play the first 7 minutes of each half and the last 7 minutes of the game, it's going to be difficult to get him the minutes he thinks he deserves.

If playing him to start the halves means he is okay with not playing down the stretch, I'm okay with it. As mentioned above, Al and TL haven't been that bad together to start the games, at least comparatively.

BTW, this is all speculation and I may be wrong about the whole thing. But I thought it was super interesting that TL and Al have only played 16 4Q minutes together all season.
If IME is playing inefficient rotations to defer to a 35yr old Al Horford because of his age/status then the Celtics deserve to underperform as they have.

Maybe 2BIGZ plays better in Q1 than they do in Q3 because they are both fresh to start the game? I don't know, it's so clunky to watch it's difficult to figure out the benefits.

IME will eventually make a change, but a head-scratcher in the meantime
 

Cellar-Door

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If IME is playing inefficient rotations to defer to a 35yr old Al Horford because of his age/status then the Celtics deserve to underperform as they have.

Maybe 2BIGZ plays better in Q1 than they do in Q3 because they are both fresh to start the game? I don't know, it's so clunky to watch it's difficult to figure out the benefits.

IME will eventually make a change, but a head-scratcher in the meantime
I wonder if some of starting Al is to set a tone defensively. He's playing way too much, but his defense is excellent, and he's by far the most capable guy at communicating the defense to the others. Now, our stars shouldn't need that, the bench guys should, but sadly too often Tatum and Brown get super lazy on D without Al calling out the rotations.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Horford is averaging ~ 30 MPG in 27 games which is roughly in line with his past three full seasons ex his OKC mini retirement (which should be factored in this discussion). He is also, by most metrics, one of the top three players on the team.

Udoka can limit his minutes but it raises the question of what he is being saved for? And what is the right amount of minutes for 35 year old Horford this season? And what is the logic? Is the concern that the Cs don't monitor this stuff or are they not following a specific course that other teams use? LeBron and Chris Paul are both older and are playing more minutes while Lowry is Horford's age and is also averaging more minutes. I get they play a different position but aren't they at similar risk given that age/milage is the concerning factor?

I honestly don't know what Horford's minutes should be and some of the ideas about staggering lineups and minutes seem worth trying. Its hard for me to get too concerned about Al's run given the Celtics overall playoff prospects, the fact that Horford's contract is a significant part of his value and that I would prefer the Celtics do what they can to make the playoffs. If Horford is out of gas by then, so be it. I think forum and most pundit consensus is that they aren't likely to win a championship. I would prefer them to make the playoffs directly if possible so winning as much as they can now seems to be a good objective.
 

Eagle3

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I know Al helps the team in many other ways, but his 3 point shooting percentage is the worst of career right now. Is that father time showing up, or something else? If I recall correctly he made a change to his form in the off season, or it might have been last season, to enable a quicker release when needed. Maybe that change hurt his accuracy?

edit: clarified specific shooting %
 
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benhogan

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This isn't a referendum on Al Horford, it's a discussion on not playing Horford/TimeLord together so much.

I posted some 2-man #s above which were stark.

If anyone has anything that shows this team plays better with 2BIGZ please show the work.
 

NomarsFool

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His 3 pt shooting has been pretty atrocious all season, it's not just a factor of his recent 0-7 night. They are open looks, too, so it's not like he's facing pressure or something.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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If IME is playing inefficient rotations to defer to a 35yr old Al Horford because of his age/status then the Celtics deserve to underperform as they have.

Maybe 2BIGZ plays better in Q1 than they do in Q3 because they are both fresh to start the game? I don't know, it's so clunky to watch it's difficult to figure out the benefits.

IME will eventually make a change, but a head-scratcher in the meantime
You made me look it up. AL + TL are +12.4 in 96 3Q minutes. 10th best among all 2 man combos (min 75 minutes). Better than JB + JT (+8.7 in 125 minutes).

Of course, Cs are way better in 3Q than 1Q or 4Q so the positive NRtg numbers would be expected.
 

benhogan

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You made me look it up. AL + TL are +12.4 in 96 3Q minutes. 10th best among all 2 man combos (min 75 minutes). Better than JB + JT (+8.7 in 125 minutes).

Of course, Cs are way better in 3Q than 1Q or 4Q so the positive NRtg numbers would be expected.
weren't you the one saying they play better to start games?

We could slice it up 10 different ways but it really doesn't matter because they haven't worked well together over the 235minutes on the floor together

If playing him to start the halves means he is okay with not playing down the stretch, I'm okay with it. As mentioned above, Al and TL haven't been that bad together to start the games, at least comparatively.
So if they are a net positive in Q3 they must be gawd awful to start with an overall rating of
Horford/TL 235mins 98.1 / 102.3 / -4.2
 

Eddie Jurak

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Part of this is that if they are going to play the 2 bigs together they need to run an offense that makes sense for that. (It really is mostly an offensive issue because I don't think the lineup has had major defensive problems.)

You can't have Jayson and Jaylen trying to drive with 2 big guys and their defenders in the middle aldready.

Moving Rob up to the high post as either a pick setter or passer helps with this. Al can play out - although it would help if he wasn't having a career worst season from three (career: 0.359; this year: 0.289. He's never had a year where he shot below 0.306 on more than 5 attempts).
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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weren't you the one saying they play better to start games?

We could slice it up 10 different ways but it really doesn't matter because they haven't worked well together over the 235minutes on the floor together

So if they are a net positive in Q3 they must be gawd awful to start with an overall rating of
Horford/TL 235mins 98.1 / 102.3 / -4.2
The Cs have not been good in 1Q so everyone's numbers are bad. Al and TL have 4th best 2-man rating among tandems with substantial minutes. In other words, it's not great that they are -4.2, but everyone is worse.

Just to be clear, I don't really have an opinion on lineups as I'm not sure we can quantify how much difference they make. I suspect that Ime starts Al because of Al's gravitas but I don't know for sure.

Your arguments for not playing them together make some sense. Al only played 20 mpg versus PHO so maybe Ime is going to reduce his minutes. I just wanted to point out that comparatively speaking, Al and TL haven't been awful in 1Q or 3Q and the numbers say that they don't play together at all during 4Q so maybe Ime is just trying to figure out the best way to handle Al while still giving him the respect Al deserves. Also, as CD mentiomted above, maybe Ime feels like Al and TL set a different tone defensively and is willing to sacrifice some offense. We'll probably never know but it will be 8nteresting to watch.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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The other point to consider in the Horford/Williams minutes debate is that those advocating a shift away from Al to TL are effectively making a case to downgrade minutes production-wise.

I am lineup agnostic and while there certainly are matchup and other reasons to play Williams more/Horford less, its hard to make the blanket case at present that Williams gives the Cs more than Horford.

Again, I am indifferent but that the numbers don't make the case hugely compelling. On the other hand the team's record argues in favor of change.
 

Deathofthebambino

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Al is averaging 32.3mpg in December. Ime has had him play 30+ minutes in every single game this month (9 games) except the last one vs. Phoenix when he played 25.

The Phoenix game was arguably the best game they played all season. Al is getting worn down late in games. It doesn't take an NBA head coach to see that. It's been clear for months.

He needs to stagger these guys early if he wants something from them late, especially if he's going with both AL/TL in crunch time no matter what...
 

Cesar Crespo

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The other point to consider in the Horford/Williams minutes debate is that those advocating a shift away from Al to TL are effectively making a case to downgrade minutes production-wise.

I am lineup agnostic and while there certainly are matchup and other reasons to play Williams more/Horford less, its hard to make the blanket case at present that Williams gives the Cs more than Horford.

Again, I am indifferent but that the numbers don't make the case hugely compelling. On the other hand the team's record argues in favor of change.
What numbers? There are numbers that suggest TL would be better than Al too. Personally, I think Al's rejuvenation has been overrated. Also, the fact Al averaged 30 minutes the last 3 years is relevant but at the same time it's not. He's 35 years old. He could drop off a cliff tomorrow or continue to play 28-30 minutes the next 3 seasons.

if it were me, I"d be going TL/Tatum/Brown/JRich/Smart. I'd run more of the offense through TL too. If it doesn't work out and/or makes the team worse, so what? It's not like the team is going anywhere anyway.

Then I'd have on the Jays in while rotating the other 4 players out with Grant, Al, PP, RL. I'd move DS.

I'm already in "transition to 22/23" mode. I don't think it will make a material difference on the Celtics W/L record or playoff chances. The only thing that will is Tatum missing a significant amount of time.


As far as the Quarters debate others are having:
1st Quarter Margin: 19th, -0.3
2nd: 8th, +1.3
3rd: 5th, +1.9
4th: 28th, -2.1

They start slow and finish flat. Someone on this board opined that may be because other teams are just coasting against the C's until the 4th. That's when they turn it on because they know the C's will fold.

It could be that. It could also be the players are exhausted come the 4th. That doesn't explain the 1st, but -0.3 points isn't exactly a huge margin anyway. Maybe Ime has a problem getting his team prepared out of the gate, but then makes good adjustments to the game plan. Then for whatever reason, he moves away from what is working and goes back to the original game plan.

I have no clue. I'm just throwing out some scenarios. It's so weird they dominate the middle half of the game.
 

mcpickl

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You made me look it up. AL + TL are +12.4 in 96 3Q minutes. 10th best among all 2 man combos (min 75 minutes). Better than JB + JT (+8.7 in 125 minutes).

Of course, Cs are way better in 3Q than 1Q or 4Q so the positive NRtg numbers would be expected.
Even slicing it down this small doesn't look great for Al/Rob together, because while that is 10th best among all 2 man combos, it's also 9th worst because there are only 18 combos that have played 75 minutes together.

It's just average. Which, considering almost half those minutes are also with their 3 best players, isn't great.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Underachievers? Yes
Still talented and extremely dangerous? Absolutely

“Let me tell ya, don’t let us win on Sunday! Don’t let us beat the Magic. Then we got the Spurs at home, two against the reeling Knicks, two against the tanking Pacers, and now BOOM!……we are 4 games over .500 and the 5-seed!!” - HRB, channeling his inner Millar
A8955F6C-8164-49C4-8DDE-D05C8E11296D.jpeg
 

HomeRunBaker

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So far so good.

Assuming that we don't run Jaylen out of town.
I mean when you can steal an OT win on your home floor against the 7-29 Magic you don’t ask questions. Next up…..the 14-21 Spurs who will be on the back end of a B2B in another country. Things are lining up…….
 

Jimbodandy

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I mean when you can steal an OT win on your home floor against the 7-29 Magic you don’t ask questions. Next up…..the 14-21 Spurs who will be on the back end of a B2B in another country. Things are lining up…….
Absolutely. Take the punch the clock wins when you can. We've sucked at even doing that well.

If I'm Brad, I'm looking for a tall ballhandling guard who won't give back points on defense like he bet on the opponent. DS and PP had some rough stretches tonight. DS did enough at the end to make a difference though.

Simmons, for all his weirdness, would look so good on this team.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Absolutely. Take the punch the clock wins when you can. We've sucked at even doing that well.

If I'm Brad, I'm looking for a tall ballhandling guard who won't give back points on defense like he bet on the opponent. DS and PP had some rough stretches tonight. DS did enough at the end to make a difference though.

Simmons, for all his weirdness, would look so good on this team.
Simmons' skillset seems like it could really help this team. However its hard to see him rehabilitating his career in a Celtics uniform. Its also hard to see Philly accepting anything less than Brown in a Celtics trade but who knows.

Stevens has to be shopping for playmakers and scorers. Lets see how Brad does with his first in-season roster adjustments.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Simmons' skillset seems like it could really help this team. However its hard to see him rehabilitating his career in a Celtics uniform. Its also hard to see Philly accepting anything less than Brown in a Celtics trade but who knows.

Stevens has to be shopping for playmakers and scorers. Lets see how Brad does with his first in-season roster adjustments.
Yeah it’s nice to dream but any Celtics deal begins with Jaylen. I don’t feel that Brad is in a position as a 1st year GM to make that bold of a move for a player whose perception is that of Simmons.
 

NomarsFool

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How out of shape was Tatum tonight? I mean, wouldn't Tatum at 50% be better than Bruno Fernando? I'm not saying run him out there for 30 minutes, but could he have done a couple of 3 minute stints?
 

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Wow. Absolutely crazy game tonight that the Celtics managed to pull out in OT despite flashing a lot of the bad habits and nearly getting blown out. Jaylen led the C's with 50, on a better game than that sounds like. The officiating was horrific. At the end of the day I'm not sure it was horrific in a way that favored either team, but lots of weird calls or missed calls in this one.


1. No Dime Lord (injury) and no Langford (non Covid illness), but Dennis Schroder was back. The Celtic started Horford, Grant, Brown, Smart, Schroder.

2. Five different guys came off the bench, because Ime needed another big. In order of minutes, Richardson (32), Pritchard (13), Parker (7), Hauser (6), Fernando (4). Parker was the first half backup C option, Fernando (and Grant) the second half one. Only 14 points from the bench unlike in the Phoenix game.

3. The offensive Magic from the Phoenix game did not carry over. They managed a 28-19 lead on the strength of Brown having a good night, and Marcus getting fouled. Then the second quarter was more malaise BS, with the Celtics getting outscored in the quarter and seeing the lead cut down to 3 points at the half.

4. Then we had the Celtics patented bad third quarter, which was made worse when Ime decided that because Jabari sucked as backup C in the first half, he should try Bruno at the end of the third quarter. Bruno was a -12 in 4 minutes (Pritchard also a deep minus at -10). That about sums up how things went. Outscored 35-20 in the quarter and down by 12 entering the 4th.

5. The 4th quarter is where the magic (the leprechaun magic, not the magic Magic) started, and stopped, and started again. The Celtics, down 77-65 after 3, opened the quarter with an 10-2 run that ended with Richardson driving to the hoop, laying the ball in, getting bodied while still in the air, and... no foul being called. Absurd non call that left the Celtics down four, 77-75. Orlando went on a 19-7 run that brought the lead up to 14, 96-82, with 4:20 left and Ime called timeout. Then the Celtics, going 8-2 to cut the lead to 6 (98-92) with a Jaylen three at 2:41.

6. At the other end, Jaylen blocked a Franz Wagner layup but a foul was called. Ime called for a coaches challenge. The reply showed that Jaylen clearly got ball first with his blocking hand, but there was also some contact with his lower hand to Wagner's midsection. Didn't look like much and certainly wasn't why the refs below the whistle, but Scal worried that they would use that to justify not reversing the call. But, no, Ime won! Jump ball. Smart hits a shot than assists Brown twice (one of them a truly great assist) and it is tied with 37 to go. Magic call time, and then get a 5 second violation coming out of the timeout. Jaylen scores again, Celtics up 100-98, Magic score to tie it up, OT.

7. The overtime begins with Schroder scoring a basket and then a 2 for 5 points against 4 points by the Magic. With 2:50 to go and still a 1 point C's lead, Marcus Smart picks up a personal foul, his 5th, for getting a hand to the face of an Orlando player. Which was odd because his hand never came anywhere near the player's face. With 1:29 to go, Jaylen sticks a three, his only basket of the OT, to put the Celtics up four. This is his last basket of the game but not his last meaningful play of the game. Ross misses a three at the other end, Jaylen grabs it and gets out in transition (though the Magic have defenders back) - he drives towards the basket and goes behind the back to Richardson for a layup and a 6 point lead, 110-104, 1:11 left. Magic call time, and coming right out of the timeout, Terrence Ross sticks a three from the corner and allegedly fouled by Grant (the only showed one replay and I didn't see contact, but I might have missed it). Grant's 6th foul, so he's gone, replaced by Horford. Ross hits the free throw, so it is 110-108 with 1:07 left. Richardson is blocked, Magic miss a three, Richardson fouls Carter with 42 seconds left. Carter misses the first free throw. Hits the second, one point game, 110-109. At the other end, Jaylen drives, has nothing, kicks it to Al in the corner. There is a good closeout, but Al gets the shot off and sticks it, 113-109, 27 seconds. Not an easy pass to make or shot to hit, but they did it. Magic misses a three, Brown fouls in the rebounding action, Franz Wagner (why wasn't his older brother Mo Wagner named 'Hans?') hits the free throws, 113-111, 16.8 left. Magic foul Schroder, who hits the first, misses the second, 114-111. At the other end, Tim Frazier has the ball, back to the basket (though out on the perimeter, not posting up), guarded by Brown. Josh Richardson, running past while engaged with his own man, brushes past Frazier with enough contact that Frazier thinks he's been fouled and flops backwards. No call, even though he was fouled. Brown bends over Frazier and ties him up, wins the jump ball to Schroder, who is fouled and hits both. Game, 116-111.

8. A word about Jaylen. He was the Celtics best player and had scored 26 through 3 quarters. His first shot of the fourth was a missed three at 7:51 to go. By the end of the quarter, he has shot 9-12, 21 points, 1 for 3 from three, 2 for 3 at the line (all on and-1s). He missed a 20-fotter with 1.8 seconds for the win, but he was mostly unstoppable. In the OT, he shot only 1-2 for 3 points, but it was a huge three pointer that he followed with 2 key assists, then getting and winning the jump ball at the end. This was the first game where I've seen Jaylen in "carry the team on his back" mode. He's had some high scoring games before, but in this one the Celtics were battling back from behind and just going to him again, and again, and again in the 4th and he was getting or the rim at will. Then in the OT they stopped that so he hit a three and then 2 critical assists. Jaylen's game line was 19-29, 5-10 from three, 7-8 from the line, 11 rebounds, 4 assists, a steal, and 2 blocks. The only blemish was 7 turnovers, as the C’s turned the ball over a ton (21 times) in this game.

9. Other C's who were good: Schroder who scored 21 points on 7-14 shooting and had 7 assists. Smart, who shot 3 for 11 but managed to salvage his line by shooting well from three (2-5), getting to the line (9), for 17 points, and adding 7 rebounds and 7 assists.

Not a pretty win in the sense of this Magic team is bad, but good to see Jaylen take over. I've seen Tatum do this several times but this is a first for Jaylen.
 

Jimbodandy

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Good call on the crew. I think that both teams had equal gripes, but they were just awful. When Ime challenged that, I thought "why not, they've gotten everything else wrong tonight."

Missed calls and eaten whistles is one thing. Multiple phantom calls on both teams. And wild inconsistency between calling nothing and suddenly calling everything. Just a rotten crew.

The young guy with the really short hair is the worst, but the middle aged guy was no good either.
 

chilidawg

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Good first and 4th quarters, got pummeled in between, just the opposite of season long trends. Nice to see them pull out a close game late, that's been their season long weakness. 2 big OT assists from Jaylen, hopefully he can build on that.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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HomeRunBaker

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Who was defending Jaylen most of the night? I assume mostly Harris with some Wagner and Ross mixed in.