Back in again! Don't let CC rain on your parade HRB.Remember how optimistic you were after the Portland win and then after that you said you wouldn't let this team fool you again?
Back in again! Don't let CC rain on your parade HRB.Remember how optimistic you were after the Portland win and then after that you said you wouldn't let this team fool you again?
I have been saying this all year. They haven't been using the one skill that makes TL more than fungible. Hopefully, they can play that way with Tatum.Interesting that both MS and JB made comments that the Cs should run their offense through the bigs. I expect TL to get more touches but it will be interesting to see whether the Cs start going to him in crunch time. TL probably the best vision on the team.
Taylor Snow: "Jaylen Brown: "The more we play like we did today – playing through bigs, making the game easy – we start to grow, we start to learn, we start to win. And that’s what Celtics basketball is about."
Keith Smith: "Smart said the Celtics should keep running their offense through their bigs: "It pulls the defense away from the rim. That opens up a lot of stuff for us. We can cut, we can move the ball, get good looks. We have bigs who can pass. We need to keep using them."
View: https://twitter.com/taylorcsnow/status/1477032618155778049?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1477032618155778049%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.redditmedia.com%2Fmediaembed%2Frt41iu%3Fresponsive%3Dtrueis_nightmode%3Dfalse
View: https://twitter.com/KeithSmithNBA/status/1477029904445325315?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1477029904445325315%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.redditmedia.com%2Fmediaembed%2Frt3vpb%3Fresponsive%3Dtrueis_nightmode%3Dfalse
I think it is an obvious move for them now. One thing that should make it appealing is that they have 2 centers who can do this, so it is not like they need to change their offense when Rob is out of the game. Another is that Rob is not good on the low block. He's great at putbacks and lobs, but the next time he successfully posts someone up will probably be the first.Interesting that both MS and JB made comments that the Cs should run their offense through the bigs. I expect TL to get more touches but it will be interesting to see whether the Cs start going to him in crunch time. TL probably the best vision on the team.
with the New Year, maybe new beginnings?I liked seeing Grant generate some of his own offense by posting up some smaller players. Having him hit 3s is awesome, of course, but he also needs to be multidimensional. He’s also a pretty good cutter, I think.
I really am curious whether Ime thinks Al and RW together are his best lineup, or whether that is just a function of having wings out of commission?
There are like 5-6 good teams and a bunch of mediocrity. And no one has been playing at full strength. It's been a season of attrition.They are 8-12 against 500 or better teams, which is ok I guess. 9-7 vs under 500 isn’t. Not sure what to make of it, especially when there are 9 teams within two games of 500.
TL and Al are net -4.6 in 107 1Q minutes. That sounds bad but it's the 4th best 2-man lineup the Cs have (only two 2-man lineups the Cs have that have played over 100 minutes are positive: JB and TL at +12.1 in 121 1Q minutes and MS and TL are +0.8 in 185 1Q minutes. (Just to be complete, JB and MS are -1.1.in 139 1Q minutes).with the New Year, maybe new beginnings?
Adv metrics (off/def/net rtg) 2-man lineups:
Horford/ Brown 360mins 104.4 / 99.5 / +4.9
Horford/Tatum 555mins 105 / 104.3 / +.7
Horford/Smart 549mins 107.1 / 107.5 / -.4
Horford/TL 235mins 98.1 / 102.3 / -4.2 (20 games)
TL/Brown 420mins 107.8 / 101.1 / +6.7
TL/Tatum 605mins 109.7 / 104.7 / +4.3
TL/ Smart 616mins 109.3 / 103.7 / +5.6
They are playing 2BIGZ primarily with Smart/Tatum/Brown, our 3 best/most efficient players, and they absolutely suck together. That's really amazing they are that inefficient.
Everything we were concerned about with 2BIGZ played out as expected. Clogged lanes, not enough 3pt shooting, less offensive efficiency when both are on the floor
The IMEdeau effect with the excessive minutes played by going 2BIGZ has worn Horford down in-game + fewer games played by both since TL is injury prone/Al age.
https://www.nba.com/stats/lineups/advanced/?Season=2021-22&SeasonType=Regular Season&TeamID=1610612738&GroupQuantity=2&sort=GROUP_NAME&dir=-1
FWIW the finishing lineups in both halves against the Suns had Richardson in place of Horford.TL and Al are net -4.6 in 107 1Q minutes. That sounds bad but it's the 4th best 2-man lineup the Cs have (only two 2-man lineups the Cs have that have played over 100 minutes are positive: JB and TL at +12.1 in 121 1Q minutes and MS and TL are +0.8 in 185 1Q minutes. Just to be complete, JB and MS are -1.1.in 139 1Q minutes).
In the 4Q, however, they are a disaster: -41 NRtg. Interestingly, however, according to NBA.com they have only played 16 minutes together. That seems low to me but who I am to argue with NBA.com?
So to answer the question upthread, I don't think Ime plays Al and TL together because he thinks it's the best lineup but likely it's best for team dynamics. (And, as a short aside, if playing Al and TL together at the beginning of games allows Ime to keep Al and TL apart at the end of the games, that would probably be a net positive.)
The sample size is small enough with 20 games (I'd usually wait until 40 games to post this stuff). Cutting it down further to just Q1 and comparing it to a smaller set of other combos is just noise.TL and Al are net -4.6 in 107 1Q minutes. That sounds bad but it's the 4th best 2-man lineup the Cs have (only two 2-man lineups the Cs have that have played over 100 minutes are positive: JB and TL at +12.1 in 121 1Q minutes and MS and TL are +0.8 in 185 1Q minutes. Just to be complete, JB and MS are -1.1.in 139 1Q minutes).
In the 4Q, however, they are a disaster: -41 NRtg. Interestingly, however, according to NBA.com they have only played 16 minutes together. That seems low to me but who I am to argue with NBA.com?
So to answer the question upthread, I don't think Ime plays Al and TL together because he thinks it's the best lineup but likely it's best for team dynamics. (And, as a short aside, if playing Al and TL together at the beginning of games allows Ime to keep Al and TL apart at the end of the games, that would probably be a net positive.)
Well yes. Because they've played 20 such games--they're 8-12. On that list they are ahead of the 7-6 Bulls, the 6-5 Bucks, the 8-8 Sixers, the 8-5 Suns, the 8-5 Jazz, the 10-5 Grizzlies.Cs have 8 wins against teams with .500 or better records. They have the 2nd most such wins in the East and the 3rd overall.
And they can still lose to G-league teams.
View: https://twitter.com/StoolGreenie/status/1477019896991006721
The offensive future (for this season I mean) could be to have Rob and Al generate some offense from up top hitting guys like Smart, Grant, Richardson, Langford on cuts or post ups. It doesn't have to be perfect, but has to be good enough to take some pressure off of Brown and Tatum, give the team something reliable to go to when teams throw everything they have at J&J..It gives Ime another reason to stagger Horford and Al's minutes (which should make both of them more effective) and puts so much less pressure on Jaylen and Jayson to create and, frankly, dribble. Makes a guy like Pritchard more viable too. With the floor spread and guys cutting, anybody who leaves Pritchard to double-team Jaylen or Tatum is asking for a wide-open three-pointer.
The schedule really lightens up over the final 46 games. Over half of the remaining games are at home. Boston has the easiest schedule remaining of all 30 NBA teams.Well yes. Because they've played 20 such games--they're 8-12. On that list they are ahead of the 7-6 Bulls, the 6-5 Bucks, the 8-8 Sixers, the 8-5 Suns, the 8-5 Jazz, the 10-5 Grizzlies.
By winning percentage they're 14th, which is...fine, I guess. More games against the below .500 teams from here on out.
Al mentioned before the season that starting was important to him.The sample size is small enough with 20 games (I'd usually wait until 40 games to post this stuff). Cutting it down further to just Q1 and comparing it to a smaller set of other combos is just noise.
I'm not sure what you mean by "Team Dynamics"? Do you mean "starter" label? Is starting Q1 and Q3 that important to Rob or Horford, if it is just show them the math.
I believe Al and TL would both be fresher in Q4 if they played fewer minutes BUT I can't prove that since IME is dead set on going THIBz on them. Overplaying them was a concern of several to open the season. I can't see how anybody could look at the #s and then watch the way Horford has played when fresh as opposed to getting huge minutes.
Starting is important to every player in the NBA. Horford was mostly added because he has a friendly contract compared to Kemba's. I liked the deal and like Al, but he's getting paid huge $$$, he should be fine playing from the bench if it helps the team.Al mentioned before the season that starting was important to him.
Also, if starting Al allows Ime to sit him down ghe stretch, that's probably a good thing even though the Cs have been awful down the stretch thus far. Al and TL down the stretch would make things worse IMO except in certain specific matchups.
Agree that in a perfect world that players would do "what's best for the team" without complaining. But in the realistic world, particularly given Horford's elder statesmen role on the Cs, some deference is probably given to him. Horford doesn't get to where he is without supreme self-confidence. If he didn't play the first 7 minutes of each half and the last 7 minutes of the game, it's going to be difficult to get him the minutes he thinks he deserves.Starting is important to every player in the NBA. Horford was mostly added because he has a friendly contract compared to Kemba's. I liked the deal and like Al, but he's getting paid huge $$$, he should be fine playing from the bench if it helps the team.
Are you saying playing TL and Horford together down the stretch would be bad BUT it makes sense to start them for the first half of Q1 & Q3? Why play them together at all and keep both fresh throughout the game/season.
2BIGZ makes Horford play more perimeter defense, away from the rim. Plus makes him a 3pt shooting perimeter player, where opposing wings can easily guard him.
Just note, IME is playing Horford more mpg than Brad did 3 seasons ago. That's outrageous. I love Al but he's not close to that player and he'll tire easier. Horford's efficiency has been slipping as the season has worn on. Go rewatch yesterday's game to see Al get beat on the perimeter repeatedly.
If IME is playing inefficient rotations to defer to a 35yr old Al Horford because of his age/status then the Celtics deserve to underperform as they have.Agree that in a perfect world that players would do "what's best for the team" without complaining. But in the realistic world, particularly given Horford's elder statesmen role on the Cs, some deference is probably given to him. Horford doesn't get to where he is without supreme self-confidence. If he didn't play the first 7 minutes of each half and the last 7 minutes of the game, it's going to be difficult to get him the minutes he thinks he deserves.
If playing him to start the halves means he is okay with not playing down the stretch, I'm okay with it. As mentioned above, Al and TL haven't been that bad together to start the games, at least comparatively.
BTW, this is all speculation and I may be wrong about the whole thing. But I thought it was super interesting that TL and Al have only played 16 4Q minutes together all season.
I wonder if some of starting Al is to set a tone defensively. He's playing way too much, but his defense is excellent, and he's by far the most capable guy at communicating the defense to the others. Now, our stars shouldn't need that, the bench guys should, but sadly too often Tatum and Brown get super lazy on D without Al calling out the rotations.If IME is playing inefficient rotations to defer to a 35yr old Al Horford because of his age/status then the Celtics deserve to underperform as they have.
Maybe 2BIGZ plays better in Q1 than they do in Q3 because they are both fresh to start the game? I don't know, it's so clunky to watch it's difficult to figure out the benefits.
IME will eventually make a change, but a head-scratcher in the meantime
You made me look it up. AL + TL are +12.4 in 96 3Q minutes. 10th best among all 2 man combos (min 75 minutes). Better than JB + JT (+8.7 in 125 minutes).If IME is playing inefficient rotations to defer to a 35yr old Al Horford because of his age/status then the Celtics deserve to underperform as they have.
Maybe 2BIGZ plays better in Q1 than they do in Q3 because they are both fresh to start the game? I don't know, it's so clunky to watch it's difficult to figure out the benefits.
IME will eventually make a change, but a head-scratcher in the meantime
weren't you the one saying they play better to start games?You made me look it up. AL + TL are +12.4 in 96 3Q minutes. 10th best among all 2 man combos (min 75 minutes). Better than JB + JT (+8.7 in 125 minutes).
Of course, Cs are way better in 3Q than 1Q or 4Q so the positive NRtg numbers would be expected.
So if they are a net positive in Q3 they must be gawd awful to start with an overall rating ofIf playing him to start the halves means he is okay with not playing down the stretch, I'm okay with it. As mentioned above, Al and TL haven't been that bad together to start the games, at least comparatively.
The Cs have not been good in 1Q so everyone's numbers are bad. Al and TL have 4th best 2-man rating among tandems with substantial minutes. In other words, it's not great that they are -4.2, but everyone is worse.weren't you the one saying they play better to start games?
We could slice it up 10 different ways but it really doesn't matter because they haven't worked well together over the 235minutes on the floor together
So if they are a net positive in Q3 they must be gawd awful to start with an overall rating of
Horford/TL 235mins 98.1 / 102.3 / -4.2
What numbers? There are numbers that suggest TL would be better than Al too. Personally, I think Al's rejuvenation has been overrated. Also, the fact Al averaged 30 minutes the last 3 years is relevant but at the same time it's not. He's 35 years old. He could drop off a cliff tomorrow or continue to play 28-30 minutes the next 3 seasons.The other point to consider in the Horford/Williams minutes debate is that those advocating a shift away from Al to TL are effectively making a case to downgrade minutes production-wise.
I am lineup agnostic and while there certainly are matchup and other reasons to play Williams more/Horford less, its hard to make the blanket case at present that Williams gives the Cs more than Horford.
Again, I am indifferent but that the numbers don't make the case hugely compelling. On the other hand the team's record argues in favor of change.
Even slicing it down this small doesn't look great for Al/Rob together, because while that is 10th best among all 2 man combos, it's also 9th worst because there are only 18 combos that have played 75 minutes together.You made me look it up. AL + TL are +12.4 in 96 3Q minutes. 10th best among all 2 man combos (min 75 minutes). Better than JB + JT (+8.7 in 125 minutes).
Of course, Cs are way better in 3Q than 1Q or 4Q so the positive NRtg numbers would be expected.
Underachievers? Yes
Still talented and extremely dangerous? Absolutely
“Let me tell ya, don’t let us win on Sunday! Don’t let us beat the Magic. Then we got the Spurs at home, two against the reeling Knicks, two against the tanking Pacers, and now BOOM!……we are 4 games over .500 and the 5-seed!!” - HRB, channeling his inner Millar
I mean when you can steal an OT win on your home floor against the 7-29 Magic you don’t ask questions. Next up…..the 14-21 Spurs who will be on the back end of a B2B in another country. Things are lining up…….So far so good.
Assuming that we don't run Jaylen out of town.
Absolutely. Take the punch the clock wins when you can. We've sucked at even doing that well.I mean when you can steal an OT win on your home floor against the 7-29 Magic you don’t ask questions. Next up…..the 14-21 Spurs who will be on the back end of a B2B in another country. Things are lining up…….
Simmons' skillset seems like it could really help this team. However its hard to see him rehabilitating his career in a Celtics uniform. Its also hard to see Philly accepting anything less than Brown in a Celtics trade but who knows.Absolutely. Take the punch the clock wins when you can. We've sucked at even doing that well.
If I'm Brad, I'm looking for a tall ballhandling guard who won't give back points on defense like he bet on the opponent. DS and PP had some rough stretches tonight. DS did enough at the end to make a difference though.
Simmons, for all his weirdness, would look so good on this team.
Yeah it’s nice to dream but any Celtics deal begins with Jaylen. I don’t feel that Brad is in a position as a 1st year GM to make that bold of a move for a player whose perception is that of Simmons.Simmons' skillset seems like it could really help this team. However its hard to see him rehabilitating his career in a Celtics uniform. Its also hard to see Philly accepting anything less than Brown in a Celtics trade but who knows.
Stevens has to be shopping for playmakers and scorers. Lets see how Brad does with his first in-season roster adjustments.