Analysis of Celtics Games (2020-2021)

HomeRunBaker

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Hmm, definitely more negativity on Pritch than I would have expected. I've been watching him closely most of the season. I'm still seeing the glass half full, and then some. (1) He's shooting 41% from three. (2) He gets the ball, and he's immediately in motion, looking for a pass, a drive, a shot. (3) His turnover rate seems fairly low, partly because he's got that tight dribble. (4) I'm not buying that's he at his ceiling/near his ceiling. Guy's a rookie. I don't care if he's 23. He's never played against NBA caliber competition. I think he'll make some adjustments.

I think one thing that may be overlooked here: he usually isn't looking for his shot. He's looking to get somebody else a good shot. The Celtics need someone like that. He can make other players better. If I were Jayson/Jaylen, he's exactly the kind of guy I'd want to keep around for a while.
For a non-volume shooter like PP who needs to make shots to be effective the raw shooting pct can be misleading. If he’s only able to take the 3-pt shots that he can make at a 41% clip we are discounting the times the ball gets swung to him in rhythm that should create a shot but he gives the ole “up-fake and non-threat dribble or pass” because his windup and low release doesn’t allow him to get the shot off against defensive length. It cripples the entire halfcourt set which only has 8-12 seconds to generate a shot off movement before going to iso in the final 6-8 seconds of the shot clock.

So while his actual “shooting pct” may be 41% it doesn’t take into account the times it hurts the offense bc he cannot get off a higher volume when the ball movement required it from his position.
 

RetractableRoof

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For a non-volume shooter like PP who needs to make shots to be effective the raw shooting pct can be misleading. If he’s only able to take the 3-pt shots that he can make at a 41% clip we are discounting the times the ball gets swung to him in rhythm that should create a shot but he gives the ole “up-fake and non-threat dribble or pass” because his windup and low release doesn’t allow him to get the shot off against defensive length. It cripples the entire halfcourt set which only has 8-12 seconds to generate a shot off movement before going to iso in the final 6-8 seconds of the shot clock.

So while his actual “shooting pct” may be 41% it doesn’t take into account the times it hurts the offense bc he cannot get off a higher volume when the ball movement required it from his position.
This post while conceptually having merit is... um... mind blowing.

1) The complaints in this thread about the offense being stagnant and having no rhythm or movement were met by you (and numerous others) saying that the Cs didn't need movement because they had the ISO extraordinaires in the brothers J, and it's ok because all the cool kids in the league were doing it. So if they aren't actually moving the ball, how is it a detriment that he is only shooting 41% when he gets the ball? Exactly what number does he need to shoot in this role before he stops getting dinged by you and others? Because if Marcus or Kemba was shooting at 41% we'd all be thrilled. Tyler Herro is talked about in glowing terms on this board, and he didn't shoot 41% (on 3s) last year. PP was brought into this league as a high BB IQ player, who could shoot, with a solid handle who could run an offense given time. In that context 41% is significantly better than that of the veterans occupying that role in front of him. He's competing for backup PG minutes with Teague (shooting 44%, on half the volume of PP). Low volume means that there's more shots for the Js... I mean that is what you want, right?

2) We are to ding him for only having a raw 41% because he MIGHT be passing up a shootable shot, and it cripples the entire half court set. Tatum strolls the ball up the court like he's savoring his last meal before a week long fast, and PP is harming the offense by only shooting at a 41% clip?!? Kemba Walker fires up 8 shots per game at a 36% clip and that is better? Smart 5.5 shots per game @ 33% is better? If he's got such a slow release maybe the Celtic players could think about putting him in a position to succeed given that he has something they need: consistent outside shooting. Like passing him the damn ball when he is open for a 3 all alone, clapping or holding up a boombox like an audition for Say Anything trying to get their attention while Kobe-lite prepares for another off balance clang off the rim.

3) If we are going to cast him as a shooting guard because a) we don't want or have minutes for him as a PG or b) that's what he was drafted to be(?); then who is he competing for minutes with? Stevens seems position-less, but on the roster these are listed as shooting guards: Jaylen, Green, Edwards, Langford. He's shooting the 3 better than all of them, on various volume differences. He shouldn't be taking shots from Jaylen, and Stevens has opted for Pritchard at twice the minutes as the others (skewed perhaps because of Kemba/Smart absence - but he was chosen for the minutes over the others). So I'm not sure what percentage he should be at - but he's a rookie being given the court over the other 2, and RL is off wandering through the swiss alps at last report.

4) Last year the entire team failed to field a 3 point % of 41% unless you count Poirier at 50% on 1 for 2 shooting for the season. Tatum was at 40%, followed by Haywire, Brown, Walker at 38%. We have to go back to 2017-2018 season to find a 41% 3 point shooter on any decent volume (unless you count 39 attempts by Wannamaker in 18-19). Entire teams, not just the rookies. I know it's been described as a weakness on the Cs at various times over the years, but we're to discount this years rookie shooting at 41%, because his release is slow and it's harming the offensive flow? That's a special kind of twisted...

5) He's at 57% eFG% while in a bit of a shooting lull right now. This year Green is higher because he's only finishing at the rim for the most part. Going back to 2014-2015 you only have 2 non-center types shooting higher eFG% for a season (on more than token attempts): Crowder once in 16, and Irving once in 17. We all know he has to improve, and adapt/evolve to carve out a space for himself - and he clearly has a long way to go. Yet, he's a good shooter as a rookie, who's done it right out of the gate, I don't know why we need to discount or ding him because he's not even better.
 

Imbricus

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Like passing him the damn ball when he is open for a 3 all alone, clapping or holding up a boombox like an audition for Say Anything trying to get their attention while Kobe-lite prepares for another off balance clang off the rim.
Hah, there is truth in this. He passes the ball to others a lot. They don't pass the ball to him so much.

Again, I think a big thing being overlooked here: he hasn't seen his role so far as creating his own offense, from what I've seen. (E.g., Brad saying that one time he was being "passive.") For one, he's being deferential to the Celtics big guns. But also, he's moving, passing and probing the defense. The problem is, I've seen plenty of times where he passes and it's to a guy who decides to go ISO, so the ball just dies, instead of snapping around.

Anyway, I'd just argue against prematurely setting his ceiling. I think he's got more room for growth than people are giving him credit for. We'll see.
 

lexrageorge

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The most plausible explanation for Pritchard's recent struggles is the dreaded "rookie wall". The wall has a number of causes, with scouting adjustments being one of them. To write him off at this stage as being another Semi is just bizarre to me. Terry Rozier didn't exactly do much his first season here no matter what the revisionists claim.
 

NomarsFool

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One thing I like about PP is that he has deep range. I think he will always (the ravages of time aside) have a role in the NBA as someone who can provide some spacing.
 

chilidawg

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Yeah, I love how FVV has now become the norm so everyone can be compared to him. He definitely isn't the exception to the rule.

He's not even comparable to FVV. FVV has a much quicker release. People are homers.
I didn't say that he compares well or not to FVV. Just pointing out that players develop. Nobody was predicting FVV would be an all star level player 3 years ago.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I didn't say that he compares well or not to FVV. Just pointing out that players develop. Nobody was predicting FVV would be an all star level player 3 years ago.
And no one should have. He is the exception to the rule. Expecting players to develop like FVV is nonsensical. Let's compare everyone to Jimmy Butler too.
 

Cesar Crespo

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And even if he did turn into FVV, we'd be complaining about all the 2's he shoots and how inefficient he is.
 

nighthob

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The most plausible explanation for Pritchard's recent struggles is the dreaded "rookie wall". The wall has a number of causes, with scouting adjustments being one of them. To write him off at this stage as being another Semi is just bizarre to me. Terry Rozier didn't exactly do much his first season here no matter what the revisionists claim.
I don't think anyone's writing him off. It's just that size/athleticism limits his upside. And he's already mostly maxed out the technical areas. He can refine the jumper a little more to raise the release point and increase his quickness with it. But that's a lot harder at 23, so even there there's a limit. He's not magically turning in to Steph Curry.
 

Cellar-Door

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The most plausible explanation for Pritchard's recent struggles is the dreaded "rookie wall". The wall has a number of causes, with scouting adjustments being one of them. To write him off at this stage as being another Semi is just bizarre to me. Terry Rozier didn't exactly do much his first season here no matter what the revisionists claim.
I mean, the most plausible explanation is actually that he had a hot start and the league adjusted to him. Nobody's writing him off, they are just saying he is what he is... a 23 year old who isn't that good right now, but might end up a solid bench player. He's more likely to be Semi (decent rotation player) than Rozier, just because Rozier was younger and had top end athletic profile, and those guys have much higher ceilings to shoot for.

Neither was FVV at 23.
Yes, but it's also worth noting that FVV at 23 was significantly better than Pritchard at 23. If we take a borderline outlier breakout guy as our comp, it's worth noting that he was well ahead of PP at the same age. He was a plus NBA defender at that point.
 

tbb345

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I mean, the most plausible explanation is actually that he had a hot start and the league adjusted to him. Nobody's writing him off, they are just saying he is what he is... a 23 year old who isn't that good right now, but might end up a solid bench player. He's more likely to be Semi (decent rotation player) than Rozier, just because Rozier was younger and had top end athletic profile, and those guys have much higher ceilings to shoot for.


Yes, but it's also worth noting that FVV at 23 was significantly better than Pritchard at 23. If we take a borderline outlier breakout guy as our comp, it's worth noting that he was well ahead of PP at the same age. He was a plus NBA defender at that point.
I really don’t understand this line of thinking.....I was never on goes with the “PP is just like FVV!!!”Crowd or the people saying he should start over Kemba but the pendulum has swung way too far the other way with this.

Pritchard is a pretty solid bench player/back up PG right now. I mean, how many players would you say are contributing more than him on this roster? (That question is the definition of damning with faint praise BTW...man is this teams bench had) He is 23 and his upside is probably a below average starter/reallly good backup PG, so there is definitely not as much projection for him as there was with Rozier. I completely agree with you there but I think in trying to prove that point you’ve shortchanged the player he is currently
 

Jed Zeppelin

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I think Pritchard has been leaving a lot of shots on the floor since coming back from injury. Closeouts that were a little closer than he thought, and the slightest hesitation on his part closes the window. Confidence + getting better at measuring the space he has to get a shot off, and maybe the conversation swings back a bit.
 

tbb345

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That's what literally everyone is saying though, isn't it?

I guess some may disagree with him being a solid back up PG right now.
Maybe my reading comprehension is terrible but it seems like some posts/posters are saying his upside is a decent backup PG (who at the moment is just a bad player).

I think everyone agrees that the “upside/projection” isn’t a huge jump from the player he is now. It seems like the disagreement is over how good he is now
 

Cellar-Door

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I really don’t understand this line of thinking.....I was never on goes with the “PP is just like FVV!!!”Crowd or the people saying he should start over Kemba but the pendulum has swung way too far the other way with this.

Pritchard is a pretty solid bench player/back up PG right now. I mean, how many players would you say are contributing more than him on this roster? (That question is the definition of damning with faint praise BTW...man is this teams bench had) He is 23 and his upside is probably a below average starter/reallly good backup PG, so there is definitely not as much projection for him as there was with Rozier. I completely agree with you there but I think in trying to prove that point you’ve shortchanged the player he is currently
I don't think I am, he grades out as one of our worst defenders, and not that good on offense.
He's getting pretty quickly overtaken by Teague as best backup PG.
We have played 11 men 450+ minutes.
The only ones he's clearly better than to me is Grant. He's in the same mix as Semi, Teague and Thompson at this point, as ... mediocre bench guys you'd hope to upgrade.

I'm not saying he can't be a good backup PG eventually... just that he isn't one now. He's a mediocre at best bench player right now and his ceiling isn't that high. He's the kind of guy you keep around while he's cheap, but also are more than willing to move if it gets a deal done, and you're likely always looking for an upgrade at his spot.
 

RetractableRoof

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I don't think anyone's writing him off. It's just that size/athleticism limits his upside. And he's already mostly maxed out the technical areas. He can refine the jumper a little more to raise the release point and increase his quickness with it. But that's a lot harder at 23, so even there there's a limit. He's not magically turning in to Steph Curry.
I think this is more than fair... I mean he's the same age as Tatum. That said, Tatum and Brown are still improving, and we laud them for that (as gym rats), and PP is also a gym rat. So I'm not going to be surprised if he does work on his release so it is as quick as possible, and optimize the release point, etc. As WBCD noted, he's going to have to learn some techniques, change his own angles/spacing/approach to be able to operate in the paint a bit more - because if he can't finish because they aren't biting on his fakes, then his value doesn't increase - and his handle has less value if penetration is futile. I think those are all things within the reach of a gym rat - perhaps the time it takes is a matter of debate.

I think he's already been exposed to some quality personal training, so I wouldn't expect much by way of increase in explosiveness (but as I've stated earlier his game isn't dependent on it). I think if anything he gets a bit stronger. Where he has the most chance to grow is in the details of any specific things Stevens wants him to execute in terms of offense (motion or otherwise), and being able to survive on defense to where his height/explosiveness limitations don't cost him floor time. Those are larger growth areas in my mind (and who knows if he'll pick up advanced defensive concepts at the NBA level), which are going to be more important than the small improvements available to him offensively.

In the end, I wouldn't be surprised if he ended up a 43-45% 3 pt shooter, but I also wouldn't be surprised if he ended up a 40% shooter either - depending on how he gets used. He's shown deep range, which might offset a slow release if he doesn't get any refinement there. Does the deep range drop his percentage, who knows? He might also get more volume as well if his defense improves, it's all an unknown.

I will say this though... he's got a roughly 20 minute per game average (though that number is dropping quickly) as a rookie. If the Cs maintain any kind of motion offense, Teague would seem to have the inside track on the backup to the backup minutes. If the potted plant offense returns, then PP is likely to get a few more minutes. Even now that Teague has seemed to pass him by, for short bursts Stevens is comfortable putting him on the court - more so than he seemed for RL, or AN this year. So I think that assessment (by Stevens) is of more value to me than those who simply call him a below average backup PG. IMO, once PP gets over the rookie wall and makes that first adjustment that WBCD talks about, we'll have a better assessment of where he is and where he could be.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I think this is more than fair... I mean he's the same age as Tatum. That said, Tatum and Brown are still improving, and we laud them for that (as gym rats), and PP is also a gym rat. So I'm not going to be surprised if he does work on his release so it is as quick as possible, and optimize the release point, etc. As WBCD noted, he's going to have to learn some techniques, change his own angles/spacing/approach to be able to operate in the paint a bit more - because if he can't finish because they aren't biting on his fakes, then his value doesn't increase - and his handle has less value if penetration is futile. I think those are all things within the reach of a gym rat - perhaps the time it takes is a matter of debate.

I think he's already been exposed to some quality personal training, so I wouldn't expect much by way of increase in explosiveness (but as I've stated earlier his game isn't dependent on it). I think if anything he gets a bit stronger. Where he has the most chance to grow is in the details of any specific things Stevens wants him to execute in terms of offense (motion or otherwise), and being able to survive on defense to where his height/explosiveness limitations don't cost him floor time. Those are larger growth areas in my mind (and who knows if he'll pick up advanced defensive concepts at the NBA level), which are going to be more important than the small improvements available to him offensively.

In the end, I wouldn't be surprised if he ended up a 43-45% 3 pt shooter, but I also wouldn't be surprised if he ended up a 40% shooter either - depending on how he gets used. He's shown deep range, which might offset a slow release if he doesn't get any refinement there. Does the deep range drop his percentage, who knows? He might also get more volume as well if his defense improves, it's all an unknown.

I will say this though... he's got a roughly 20 minute per game average (though that number is dropping quickly) as a rookie. If the Cs maintain any kind of motion offense, Teague would seem to have the inside track on the backup to the backup minutes. If the potted plant offense returns, then PP is likely to get a few more minutes. Even now that Teague has seemed to pass him by, for short bursts Stevens is comfortable putting him on the court - more so than he seemed for RL, or AN this year. So I think that assessment (by Stevens) is of more value to me than those who simply call him a below average backup PG. IMO, once PP gets over the rookie wall and makes that first adjustment that WBCD talks about, we'll have a better assessment of where he is and where he could be.
It wouldn't surprise you if he ended up anywhere from 1st to 10th all time in 3pt FG%? On how many FGA?

I can see why you think people are being overly negative of PP.

edit: Here, maybe come back to planet earth. https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/fg3_pct_career.html
 

RetractableRoof

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It wouldn't surprise you if he ended up anywhere from 1st to 10th all time in 3pt FG%? On how many FGA?

I can see why you think people are being overly negative of PP.

edit: Here, maybe come back to planet earth. https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/fg3_pct_career.html
At least it will be higher than FVV, right?

So you don't have an issue with someone saying that him shooting 41% needs to be discounted because it's harming the offense... OK.

A rookie is shooting 41% on 121 attempts, that's about 1/3 the attempts Curry made his first year in the league (Curry at an astounding 47% rate!?!). Those are apples an oranges... yep. But if he's able to shoot at that rate as a rookie, right out of the gate, could he refine things and be 43% or more with the mechanics work available to him at the NBA level? Sure. Likely, no - hell the highest likelihood is that he's flashed and peaked like a rookie pitcher that throws a 2 hitter his first start in the bigs. Would I be surprised, nope. But then I'm already shocked he's shot this well, so surprised if he wrings another 2 percent out of his shooting over his career, nope. I mean it's low volume compared to Curry right? I'd also not be surprised if he crashed to earth and shot 33%, so there's that - I mean, who knows where the actual mean is for him to regress to. Just for thought though, how many rookies are showing the deep range he has this year? I mean, Gorman has seen most every second of Celtic basketball for how many years, and he's chuckling at this kids range on the air. Clearly, it's something he sees from a rookie every day. Is that range an indicator that his high 3 pt shooting percentage might be real? Again, I wouldn't be surprised.

I've said this kid is a high BB IQ, good shooter, and he has a good handle (maybe the best on the team? I've got no opinions from others on that). He doesn't rely on explosion as part of his game, he's already crafty. He's height challenged and a defensive liability. That's where I am. I'm fine staying there. But in this forum, PP must be hammered down! Screw that. You know what, if I squint, on a Tuesday, with glitter in the air, I wouldn't be surprised if he shoots 43% from 3 pt land. You want me to come back to planet earth, then some of you should climb back out of the grave that you are digging him already.
 
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Cesar Crespo

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At least it will be higher than FVV, right?
It's far more likely the .413 will decrease or be a career high. I think he's a good 3 point shooter and that will be in the league for awhile. There's nothing wrong with being a 20 minute player for 10+ years in the NBA.
 

Imbricus

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Okay, I'll stick my neck out: I think PP's ceiling is starter, and a bit more. Let's revisit this in, say, four years, and see how it all shakes out. He very well may not get to that ceiling, but I don't see any sense in putting his ceiling six inches above his floor. ;)
 

HomeRunBaker

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It's far more likely the .413 will decrease or be a career high. I think he's a good 3 point shooter and that will be in the league for awhile. There's nothing wrong with being a 20 minute player for 10+ years in the NBA.
Yeah he’s not going anywhere anytime soon when craptastic players like Wayne Ellington stick around for a dozen years. After his first month I thought we had something good but my views have changed once adjustments have been made. I still think he’ll be a solid 2nd unit guy but for a contender there should be better ones out there.
 

Devizier

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This isn’t going to count as some kind of deep analysis, but it seems like the team cannot generate shots when they need to. Having Smart finish a bad shooting night with a clanked open look and a fruitless drive into traffic is frustrating to watch, to say the least.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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This isn’t going to count as some kind of deep analysis, but it seems like the team cannot generate shots when they need to. Having Smart finish a bad shooting night with a clanked open look and a fruitless drive into traffic is frustrating to watch, to say the least.
To me, the team can generate shots when they want to but too often they don't want to.

They throw away too many possessions with tough shots or TOs. It's a sign of a super-young team.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Its elemental. Their offense is concentrated and predictable. Their D suffers because their best players have to exert max effort on the offensive end. They desperately need another player who can generate and make their own looks on a consistent basis.

They don't need to fire Stevens or banish players from the locker room. They just need more players, even if its just a league average scorer or defender. This team would look a lot better with one of those things and would be very tough with a true 3&D wing and some bench shooting. The problem is that is shopping season and everyone else has those things on their lists as well.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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They just need more players, even if its just a league average scorer or defender. This team would look a lot better with one of those things and would be very tough with a true 3&D wing and some bench shooting.
It's not that simple.

Let's look at defense. Grant Williams was switched several times onto Giannis and did what I think was a credible job on him - except that maybe Giannis wasn't 100%. He was also switched onto Middleton several times and couldn't guard him at all. He also had to close out on 3s and do a lot of rebounding.

That's a lot of responsibilities and most league average defenders aren't going to be able to do much better IMO. Also, Brad's scheme is very detail-oriented from what I am gathering (especially where the helps needs to be and who to rotate to) and without practice, it's going to be difficult to integrate.

And on offense, after you give the Jays their 20+ shots each and KW his 20- shots and Marcus his 10+ shots there isn't a lot of shots left for someone who can create his own shot.

Also, the Cs have their biggest issues in the 4Q, when they have the Jays, KW, and Marcus on the floor - no dearth of people who can supposedly create their own shot there.

I like Gordon because he's one of the few guys out there who theoretically could work in Brad's defense. And hopefully the shot selection on offense can't get any worse . . . .
 

ZMart100

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I'm starting to think some of what is going on with Tatum is explained by the incentives of the super-max. I'm not sure he is going to play better team O this season.
 

the moops

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Daniel Theis is the worst three point shooter of all the options they had last night. If the play was for a three, not sure why Nesmith or Pritchard or Grant or Semi weren't in for thay last play
 

128

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Daniel Theis is the worst three point shooter of all the options they had last night. If the play was for a three, not sure why Nesmith or Pritchard or Grant or Semi weren't in for thay last play
I doubt the play was designed to go to Theis, who was open only because Brook Lopez apparently forgot he had a player to guard. Pritchard would have been swallowed up by a bigger defender.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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With every passing game it becomes clearer to me that the player they have lost and miss the most is Al Horford. Stretch 5 with vision who was always in position and always made the right pass/shoot/drive decision. He was the straw, and the drink has remain largely unstirred since his departure.
 

cardiacs

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With every passing game it becomes clearer to me that the player they have lost and miss the most is Al Horford. Stretch 5 with vision who was always in position and always made the right pass/shoot/drive decision. He was the straw, and the drink has remain largely unstirred since his departure.
I agree. I hope they can get him back if he is available for a reasonable cost but only if there is a bigger deal that takes the headlines.
 

Strike4

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And on offense, after you give the Jays their 20+ shots each and KW his 20- shots and Marcus his 10+ shots
If you had a Barnes-type coming in and Smart is still on the team, my guess is that he would be able to transition back to a defense/playmaker with some occasional scoring nights (like he used to be). In the current situation with the absence of such a player, I think it is hard to make the case that those 10+ shots should go to another player. My guess is that it would be even harder to make that case to Smart.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I doubt the play was designed to go to Theis, who was open only because Brook Lopez apparently forgot he had a player to guard. Pritchard would have been swallowed up by a bigger defender.
MIL left Theis open the previous two out of bounds plays and I'm sure Brad noticed that. So maybe the play wasn't drawn up for The Is, but I'm sure Brad said, "They're not guarding DT."

With every passing game it becomes clearer to me that the player they have lost and miss the most is Al Horford. Stretch 5 with vision who was always in position and always made the right pass/shoot/drive decision. He was the straw, and the drink has remain largely unstirred since his departure.
Except they went to the ECF last year.

But your point stands. Whether it's Al or GH or some other player, they are definitely missing a calming, veteran presence. There is a reason why youth doesn't usually win in the NBA.
 

NomarsFool

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I'm starting to think some of what is going on with Tatum is explained by the incentives of the super-max. I'm not sure he is going to play better team O this season.
How does his contract work, if he makes All NBA next season, is the remainder of his deal at the 30% level? Or, is this season his only opportunity for it to kick in?
 

Deathofthebambino

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I keep reading how defenses have figured out PP, how he got off to a fast start and cooled down, etc. He can't get shots off now like he did in the beginning of the season, etc.

Of course, none of that is really true.


In the first 14 games before his injury:

20.9mpg, 6.0fga, 2.9 3's per game, shooting 42.5% from deep, 7.7ppg.

In the last 24 games since his injury:

19.0mpg, 5.8fga, 3.5 3's per game, shooting 40.5% from deep, 6.7ppg.

He's pretty much the exact same guy. Nobody has "figured him out." He is what he is, a perfectly capable backup, IMO, and at this point, probably more valuable to this offense than Kemba (but that's more about Kemba than PP).
 

ZMart100

Member
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Aug 15, 2008
2,167
How does his contract work, if he makes All NBA next season, is the remainder of his deal at the 30% level? Or, is this season his only opportunity for it to kick in?
It's this season. Once his contract extension starts it is locked in.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
14,453
C's current 8 man rotation
Tatum
Brown
Kemba
Smart
Fournier
TT/Theis/TimeLord
TT/Theis/TimeLord
Jeff Teague

9-12 (probably in order)
PP
Theis/TT/TL
Semi
Grant

Everyone else
Nesmith
Langford
Edwards*
Waters
Fall
Green*

*=in danger of being cut to get the C's to 15. Waters and Fall don't get the job done.

Ideally, they'd be able to flip one of TT or Theis for a big PG or another wing that is better than Teague.

The team is much deeper with the addition of Evan Fournier. Switching out a redundant big for another area of need would actually make the team pretty deep compared to the rest of the league, not just where they were before the day starter. I wouldn't even be opposed to trading TL for the right wing.

I could see Romeo jumping all the way to 8 upon his return. I have no idea where he is at right now and player development is weird. Missed time does not always mean stalled development.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
14,453
Fully health with the roster as is, I'd break down minutes like this

Tatum 33 (currently at 35.6)
Brown 33 (currently at 34.2)
Marcus 30 (31.4)
Kemba 30 (30.7)
Fournier 30 (---)
TL/Theis/TT 48 combined (64.2)
Teague 20

That leaves 16 minutes left for players 9-17 (minus the left over Theis/TL/TT). There are also always injuries/rest/covid so PP will probably be close to 15-20 minutes a night anyway and Semi still may see 10-15 every now and then.

Significantly less of the 3 big monster, Grant Williams, less Semi, and maybe a little less PP.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
14,453
Well, Theis and Teague leaving really changes things and solidifies the top 8 one would think.

Tatum 33
Brown 33
Marcus 30
Kemba 30
Fournier 30
TL 25
TT 23
PP 20

with 16 minutes + injury time to Semi, Grant, Nesmith, Wagner and Langford. I doubt Carsen, Tremont, and Tacko see much time at all. Green either, if he's still on the team. I'm not sure he is.

I'm curious what Langford has to offer and if he is any good, there's still a role for him. They don't need him though. They don't really need anyone outside the top 8, especially come the playoffs.

I wouldn't mind a better back up PG than PP but I'll take it. It's amazing how a trade for 1 good player/average starter and removing a logjam of redundant pieces so the young talent that deserves to play can change a team so much.

Here's hoping TL and PP don't fall on their ass.
 

lovegtm

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Apr 30, 2013
7,937
Kiev, Ukraine
Well, Theis and Teague leaving really changes things and solidifies the top 8 one would think.

Tatum 33
Brown 33
Marcus 30
Kemba 30
Fournier 30
TL 25
TT 23
PP 20

with 16 minutes + injury time to Semi, Grant, Nesmith, Wagner and Langford. I doubt Carsen, Tremont, and Tacko see much time at all. Green either, if he's still on the team. I'm not sure he is.

I'm curious what Langford has to offer and if he is any good, there's still a role for him. They don't need him though. They don't really need anyone outside the top 8, especially come the playoffs.

I wouldn't mind a better back up PG than PP but I'll take it. It's amazing how a trade for 1 good player/average starter and removing a logjam of redundant pieces so the young talent that deserves to play can change a team so much.

Here's hoping TL and PP don't fall on their ass.
Having Fournier means you don't need Smart at the wing as badly, so you can reduce PP time, put Marcus at PG, and play Langford or Nesmith at times.
 

lovegtm

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Apr 30, 2013
7,937
Kiev, Ukraine
Not sure whether this is the thread for it, but the Cs' path forward seems pretty clear now.

Assets, roughly in order of appeal:
- All future 1sts/swaps unencumbered
- TL
- Smart
- the pupu platter of young guys
- TT (mostly a salary, but doesn't seem to be viewed as a negative contract)

That's absolutely enough to get a top 15-25 type guy, maybe a bit higher, if you're willing to mortgage All The Picks. Teams will be willing to bet on something going wrong with the Brown/Tatum core 3-4 years down the road. The Jrue trade is a good example of this: it's viewed as an overpay by the Bucks, but the Pelicans entire bet is that Giannis won't be there or will be past his prime.

TT+Smart+filler matches anybody you could really want, either in a S&T or as a straight trade. The obvious target is Beal, whom they can match now that they don't have to fit him into the TPE, but we can probably come up with other guys.
 

Jed Zeppelin

Member
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Aug 23, 2008
40,808
Not sure whether this is the thread for it, but the Cs' path forward seems pretty clear now.

Assets, roughly in order of appeal:
- All future 1sts/swaps unencumbered
- TL
- Smart
- the pupu platter of young guys
- TT (mostly a salary, but doesn't seem to be viewed as a negative contract)

That's absolutely enough to get a top 15-25 type guy, maybe a bit higher, if you're willing to mortgage All The Picks. Teams will be willing to bet on something going wrong with the Brown/Tatum core 3-4 years down the road. The Jrue trade is a good example of this: it's viewed as an overpay by the Bucks, but the Pelicans entire bet is that Giannis won't be there or will be past his prime.

TT+Smart+filler matches anybody you could really want, either in a S&T or as a straight trade. The obvious target is Beal, whom they can match now that they don't have to fit him into the TPE, but we can probably come up with other guys.
They haven't really had a contract like Thompson's in a while, enough salary fodder to help with matching, soon-to-be expiring, the player is situationally useful but also fungible. We'll see how highly the other pieces are valued around the league.

I am deeply skeptical of a Smart extension and what it would mean for cap flexibility, looking ahead to the post-Kemba Celtics, so he has to be on the table in the right deal.

FWIW, not that I'm shipping him out, but Jaylen's deal is pretty valuable too, it should be said.
 

lovegtm

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Apr 30, 2013
7,937
Kiev, Ukraine
They haven't really had a contract like Thompson's in a while, enough salary fodder to help with matching, soon-to-be expiring, the player is situationally useful but also fungible. We'll see how highly the other pieces are valued around the league.

I am deeply skeptical of a Smart extension and what it would mean for cap flexibility, looking ahead to the post-Kemba Celtics, so he has to be on the table in the right deal.
Yeah, what I'd expect in the summer:
- Fournier re-signed at ~4/65
- Kemba traded as roughly a neutral asset
- TL extended at ~4/50
- Smart+TT+lots of picks/swaps traded for an impact guy.

That puts you in a manageable cap situation, consolidates talent, and locks in a very good core as long as the Jays improve. If Tatum doesn't make All NBA, the cap situation gets even better.
 

benhogan

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Nov 2, 2007
11,079
Santa Monica
COVID has taken care of Tatum returning to all NBA this season.

I think you're pretty accurate on Fournier/TL deals. I'm not even all that concerned if Rob goes to RFA.

Kemba is the tricky one. If Danny gets out of that as a neutral asset I'd be thrilled.
 

ugmo33

Member
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May 6, 2016
82
Josh Hart seems like the perfect candidate for the "plays well against us" offseason overpay for the Cs