Analysis of Celtics Games (2020-2021)

RorschachsMask

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 23, 2011
1,576
Lynn
Or phrased another way... Tatum is good at making shots, but minimizes his own value because he has some of the worst shot selection in the league.
A pretty big part of it is he has to put up those looks from deep, defenses are constantly loading up on him, especially when he tries to drive. Plus, it’s just his best weapon, his one truly elite skill.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
20,343
A pretty big part of it is he has to put up those looks from deep, defenses are constantly loading up on him, especially when he tries to drive. Plus, it’s just his best weapon, his one truly elite skill.
A pretty big part of it is he takes a lot of bad stepback 3s after not even making an attempt to win off the dribble. Tatum's game this year has been a whole lot of James Harden 3s, but without the foul drawing, drives and passing threat that Harden uses to get other offense and create space for the 3s.
 

Strike4

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
1,764
Portland, Maine
Radical thought, but maybe Marcus Smart is the problem. Or even if he isn't the problem, the fastest way to change the culture of the C's is to move the leader of the pack.
For all his flaws, I think Smart is not somebody you deal away easily. Most of his game is not based in talent but in intelligence and discipline, as opposed to offensive skills. He's smart. He's also young. He can get back to that discipline and change.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
20,343
For all his flaws, I think Smart is not somebody you deal away easily. Most of his game is not based in talent but in intelligence and discipline, as opposed to offensive skills. He's smart. He's also young. He can get back to that discipline and change.
I love Smart, but as soon as his lateral quickness goes he's gonna be pretty useless. The majority of his value is in his defensive versatility, if this year is the start of a trend of losing quickness, he won't be able to guard 1s and 2s at as high a level... that makes him an undersized 3 on D and a non-threat on offense. It's better to get out too early than too late on defensive first players.
 

Koufax

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
4,854
I'm not sure that philosophy worked so well in the case of Tony Allen, whom we all used to mock around here.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
20,343
I'm not sure that philosophy worked so well in the case of Tony Allen, whom we all used to mock around here.
Allen was pretty close to his peak value when he left BOS, even then, you're talking about a defense first player who played mid 20s minutes per game, if MEM could have traded him as part of a package for a 30+ MPG starter in his first few years there they should have.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
14,453
For all his flaws, I think Smart is not somebody you deal away easily. Most of his game is not based in talent but in intelligence and discipline, as opposed to offensive skills. He's smart. He's also young. He can get back to that discipline and change.
Except he's not that young, at least for a basketball player. He's 27. While not likely, it's possible he's already in physical decline. He isn't getting younger.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 26, 2005
22,410
A pretty big part of it is he has to put up those looks from deep, defenses are constantly loading up on him, especially when he tries to drive. Plus, it’s just his best weapon, his one truly elite skill.
Defenses are loadibg up on the Js because they don't feel like either are going to win a game passing the ball. It's another adhustment they will have to make.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
20,177
Or phrased another way... Tatum is good at making shots, but minimizes his own value because he has some of the worst shot selection in the league.
It is a combination of poor shot selection with his role as our primary iso scorer. I’d like to see these number broken down into time remaining on the shot clock which is critical information when evaluating a #1 option compared to someone like a Pritchard or Semi who for the most part only take clean looks within flow of offense. You cannot compare these two type of players simply based on raw shooting pct.
 

RorschachsMask

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 23, 2011
1,576
Lynn
It is a combination of poor shot selection with his role as our primary iso scorer. I’d like to see these number broken down into time remaining on the shot clock which is critical information when evaluating a #1 option compared to someone like a Pritchard or Semi who for the most part only take clean looks within flow of offense. You cannot compare these two type of players simply based on raw shooting pct.
Now it can argued that part of the reason that the clock gets so low is because Tatum tends to hold onto the ball for too long, but around 26% of his threes are in the last 7 seconds of the shot clock, 15% being in the last 4 seconds.

Just for comparisons sake, Jaylen is around 17% in the last 7 seconds.
 

NomarsFool

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 21, 2001
5,113
I’m not that much of a Marcus fan, but I thought he contributed a lot to the ball movement last night. He got a little too fancy at times with some careless turn overs, but he was moving the ball quickly. The Celtics too often move the ball sloooow, which is nearly pointless.

of course, we are getting excited about a home win against one of the worst teams in the league. Also, Houston was neck and neck with the Celtics for much of the game.

Charlotte is going to be interesting.
 

Euclis20

Well-Known Member
Gold Supporter
SoSH Member
Aug 3, 2004
3,918
Imaginationland
Yup, Charlotte will be a good test. One of the teams the Celtics have to jump over for playoff seeding, and while I assumed they'd fall back a bit with Ball out, that hasn't been the case at all. They are 5-2 since Ball got hurt, only losses are to the Nets and Suns.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 26, 2005
22,410
Yup, Charlotte will be a good test. One of the teams the Celtics have to jump over for playoff seeding, and while I assumed they'd fall back a bit with Ball out, that hasn't been the case at all. They are 5-2 since Ball got hurt, only losses are to the Nets and Suns.
Yes but the five wins include IND, HOU, and WAS. They also beat MIA after the trade deadline w/o Oladipo, and SAS.

Agree tomorrow will be super interesting. Too bad DinnerEtte wants to do Easter outing.
 

Euclis20

Well-Known Member
Gold Supporter
SoSH Member
Aug 3, 2004
3,918
Imaginationland
Yes but the five wins include IND, HOU, and WAS. They also beat MIA after the trade deadline w/o Oladipo, and SAS.

Agree tomorrow will be super interesting. Too bad DinnerEtte wants to do Easter outing.
Yeah they aren't world beaters, but they absolutely don't have to be to stay ahead of Boston (and the rest of the mediocre EC playoff field) to grab one of the coveted 4th or 5th playoff spots, which is the goal for about 6-7 teams right now. When you're around .500, going 5-2 over 12 days is excellent, regardless of the opponent.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
14,453
The best part of last night is the right players were taking the shots. I'm excited for TT to come back.

This team is frustrating and has deserved our wrath, but we still haven't seen them at full strength. Last night was the closest we've seen and they looked good. They'd have looked even better with TT getting Kornet and Wagner's minutes. They'd be more fun to watch with RL because of the potential.

Fournier fits this team really, really well.
 

CoffeeNerdness

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 6, 2012
5,264
Felt like yesterday was one of Tatum's better games of the season in the context of team play. He started out the game ice cold and deferred to the other scoring options for the middle portion of the game, he seemed engaged on the defensive end, and when the time came to ice the game he was money. I'm hoping that the emergence of RW and Fournier in addition to eating a heavy dose of humble pie has opened his eyes to buying into less hero ball and more team ball. He even took the impetus to be the contact initiator on moves to the basket and that paid off with some trips to the line. Hopeful it's something of a turning point.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
20,177
Felt like yesterday was one of Tatum's better games of the season in the context of team play. He started out the game ice cold and deferred to the other scoring options for the middle portion of the game, he seemed engaged on the defensive end, and when the time came to ice the game he was money. I'm hoping that the emergence of RW and Fournier in addition to eating a heavy dose of humble pie has opened his eyes to buying into less hero ball and more team ball. He even took the impetus to be the contact initiator on moves to the basket and that paid off with some trips to the line. Hopeful it's something of a turning point.
Funny how a player is comfortable with teammates who can make shots and/or create shots. It “should” be night and day playing with Fournier than any of the Semi/Grant/Nesmith/Teague train wreck. The problem with this team has never been Tatum and I’m sticking to this until I have reason to believe it is/was.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 26, 2005
22,410
Brad must read SOSH because in response to our complaints about ball movement, he's installed actions designed to minimize ISO, get players attempts at the rim, and just generally pass more. https://www.bostonglobe.com/2021/04/05/sports/how-celtics-increased-ball-movement-is-helping-their-offense/

The answer Stevens came up with seems simple, but it’s been a process, one that will continue as the Celtics try to pull themselves up from eighth place in the Eastern Conference before the playoffs start next month. Stevens has tried to get his team to buy into more ball movement and more cutting actions to open up more possibilities on offense, and while it’s been a process, it’s starting to click.
The ball is moving more and the numbers show it. The Celtics are 16th in the league in passes per game (286.6). In their two most recent games, the Celtics made 318 passes against Houston and 292 against Charlotte. Over the last 15 games, the Celtics are averaging 297.3 passes per game, eighth in the league.
 

Imbricus

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 26, 2017
2,894
Brad must read SOSH because in response to our complaints about ball movement, he's installed actions designed to minimize ISO, get players attempts at the rim, and just generally pass more.
Yes! The last two games, it's been very noticeable, the increased passing. Impressive. But the acid test is yet to come. I've seen them whip the ball around before this, but then revert to ISO as soon as the game gets close, or they fall behind. It'll be interesting to see if the new approach sticks against Philadelphia.
 

Just a bit outside

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 6, 2011
4,076
Monument, CO
Brad must read SOSH because in response to our complaints about ball movement, he's installed actions designed to minimize ISO, get players attempts at the rim, and just generally pass more. https://www.bostonglobe.com/2021/04/05/sports/how-celtics-increased-ball-movement-is-helping-their-offense/

The answer Stevens came up with seems simple, but it’s been a process, one that will continue as the Celtics try to pull themselves up from eighth place in the Eastern Conference before the playoffs start next month. Stevens has tried to get his team to buy into more ball movement and more cutting actions to open up more possibilities on offense, and while it’s been a process, it’s starting to click.
The ball is moving more and the numbers show it. The Celtics are 16th in the league in passes per game (286.6). In their two most recent games, the Celtics made 318 passes against Houston and 292 against Charlotte. Over the last 15 games, the Celtics are averaging 297.3 passes per game, eighth in the league.
Karalis talked about this in the Locked On podcast this morning. A huge increase in passing, threes, and open threes. Big decrease in midrange shots.
 

Devizier

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 3, 2000
14,150
Somewhere
A pretty big part of it is he has to put up those looks from deep, defenses are constantly loading up on him, especially when he tries to drive. Plus, it’s just his best weapon, his one truly elite skill.
You’re not going to get good shots when giving up one or two positions on offense. Hopefully this changes with Williams and Fournier.
 

DJnVa

Dorito Dawg
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2010
43,666
Karalis talked about this in the Locked On podcast this morning. A huge increase in passing, threes, and open threes. Big decrease in midrange shots.
Yeah, listened to it today. The last 3 games is something like 320 passes. It's like a 10% bump.

It's led to more open threes, more wide open threes, more shots in the restricted area--all at the expense of midrange shots, because total number of shots is essentially static.

And, like he said, you always want teams chasing the ball, perhaps the Sixers more than most.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
20,177
Yes! The last two games, it's been very noticeable, the increased passing. Impressive. But the acid test is yet to come. I've seen them whip the ball around before this, but then revert to ISO as soon as the game gets close, or they fall behind. It'll be interesting to see if the new approach sticks against Philadelphia.
Funny how you can do real cool things with your offense when you don’t play two bigs together in 2021. Fournier really opens things up too.
 

RetractableRoof

tolerates intolerance
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 1, 2003
3,473
Quincy, MA
Brad must read SOSH because in response to our complaints about ball movement, he's installed actions designed to minimize ISO, get players attempts at the rim, and just generally pass more. https://www.bostonglobe.com/2021/04/05/sports/how-celtics-increased-ball-movement-is-helping-their-offense/

The answer Stevens came up with seems simple, but it’s been a process, one that will continue as the Celtics try to pull themselves up from eighth place in the Eastern Conference before the playoffs start next month. Stevens has tried to get his team to buy into more ball movement and more cutting actions to open up more possibilities on offense, and while it’s been a process, it’s starting to click.
The ball is moving more and the numbers show it. The Celtics are 16th in the league in passes per game (286.6). In their two most recent games, the Celtics made 318 passes against Houston and 292 against Charlotte. Over the last 15 games, the Celtics are averaging 297.3 passes per game, eighth in the league.
Can you even imagine? I could see Ainge wanting to keep tabs on fan angst as part of his job. But the idea that Brad would even know we exist makes me laugh. I mean, lmao... "you know I've been lurking on this RedSox site... and there are some interesting ideas being tossed around. Maybe I should start TL, and you know once we have Fournier comfortable, they've got a point about Kemba coming off the bench. Pritchard though, no way he shoots 43% for a career."
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
14,453
Can you even imagine? I could see Ainge wanting to keep tabs on fan angst as part of his job. But the idea that Brad would even know we exist makes me laugh. I mean, lmao... "you know I've been lurking on this RedSox site... and there are some interesting ideas being tossed around. Maybe I should start TL, and you know once we have Fournier comfortable, they've got a point about Kemba coming off the bench. Pritchard though, no way he shoots 43% for a career."
Eric Van got a job with the Boston Red Sox because someone in the front office read his posts on here. Stranger things.
 

lexrageorge

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2007
11,993
Eric Van got a job with the Boston Red Sox because someone in the front office read his posts on here. Stranger things.
I'm sure if you remove all of the 301 three point shots that has Semi missed in his career, he becomes the best offensive player the Celtics have had since Sam Jones.
 

joe dokes

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
19,813
Brad must read SOSH because in response to our complaints about ball movement, he's installed actions designed to minimize ISO, get players attempts at the rim, and just generally pass more. https://www.bostonglobe.com/2021/04/05/sports/how-celtics-increased-ball-movement-is-helping-their-offense/

The answer Stevens came up with seems simple, but it’s been a process, one that will continue as the Celtics try to pull themselves up from eighth place in the Eastern Conference before the playoffs start next month. Stevens has tried to get his team to buy into more ball movement and more cutting actions to open up more possibilities on offense, and while it’s been a process, it’s starting to click.
The ball is moving more and the numbers show it. The Celtics are 16th in the league in passes per game (286.6). In their two most recent games, the Celtics made 318 passes against Houston and 292 against Charlotte. Over the last 15 games, the Celtics are averaging 297.3 passes per game, eighth in the league.
It's good to see the "passes" number, rather than assists, as a measure. Assists can be a function of whether the shooter is making shots. Passes are an indication of a mindset. Much like soccer, multiple passes are often needed to open up a defense. It seems simple....
 

Light-Tower-Power

ask me about My Pillow
SoSH Member
Jun 14, 2013
11,626
Nashua, NH
Why couldn't they have shot up the league with the J&J vaccine and gotten it over with is beyond me. They could've made more convincing PSA commercials with current stars than the one they're running now with old farts Bill Russell, Jerry West, and Kareem getting the shot.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
14,453
Why couldn't they have shot up the league with the J&J vaccine and gotten it over with is beyond me. They could've made more convincing PSA commercials with current stars than the one they're running now with old farts Bill Russell, Jerry West, and Kareem getting the shot.
Because half of the players won't take it.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 26, 2005
22,410
We'll probably never figure this out, but it would be interesting to find out in the future if there was a systemic issue with the Cs getting hit so much by COVID or whether it was just luck. I think the last broadcast said that the Cs have lost the most games to COVID.

I also saw on twitter - so not sure if it's correct - that only 1 NBA player tested positive for COVID from March 17 through the end of the month.
Can you even imagine? I could see Ainge wanting to keep tabs on fan angst as part of his job. But the idea that Brad would even know we exist makes me laugh. I mean, lmao... "you know I've been lurking on this RedSox site... and there are some interesting ideas being tossed around. Maybe I should start TL, and you know once we have Fournier comfortable, they've got a point about Kemba coming off the bench. Pritchard though, no way he shoots 43% for a career."
One would think that teams would have an intern or something looking at message boards just for informational purposes but yeah, it would be super funny if they found out something that they could use from a rando internet poster.
 

bakahump

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jan 8, 2001
6,721
Maine
Why?

Group think after all. Give me all your ideas. I imagine the ideas increase as do the number of people "in the room".

Now thinking EVERY "rando internet poster" has a good idea is the problem. Maybe you take the top 5% to investigate.

Out of that 5% of ideas maybe 1-2 actually have teeth. And Maybe they are already being done by the team in some fashion.

But to think that 10000s of ideas are all useless because "its a message board" is pretty silly.

All of this hinges on the Message board (Sosh for instance is probably a good place to mine, while Gang Green might be a little less productive) and actually paying a guy or 2 to sift through the data, gather it and bring it in for a concise discussion. You will certainly miss some good ideas, discuss some stupid ones and inevitably find a couple good ones.
 

kfoss99

Well-Known Member
Silver Supporter
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2009
403
Because half of the players won't take it.
We'll probably never figure this out, but it would be interesting to find out in the future if there was a systemic issue with the Cs getting hit so much by COVID or whether it was just luck. I think the last broadcast said that the Cs have lost the most games to COVID.
I worry that these two are related for the C's.

Ainge should be asked at his next press conference what Boston is doing differently than other teams for COVID mitigation.
 

bakahump

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jan 8, 2001
6,721
Maine
See right now in a Celtics Board Room they are discussing new Covid Protocols. Because. Of. Us.
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
7,937
Kiev, Ukraine
I worry that these two are related for the C's.

Ainge should be asked at his next press conference what Boston is doing differently than other teams for COVID mitigation.
I strongly doubt they're related. Anti-vaccine sentiment is quite prevalent across the league.

Also it's very possiblw that Fournier just contacted someone with it or missed a test, as opposed to having it. If he does have it, it's going to suck really hard for missed games and conditioning.
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
9,985
The Moderna vaccine is kind of problematic anyway. I personally know two people that had it that had severe side effects, and I highly doubt that I'm some outlier. Christ, even my doctor told me to make certain I get the Pfizer shots when the time comes for me to do it.
 

lexrageorge

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2007
11,993
The Moderna vaccine is kind of problematic anyway. I personally know two people that had it that had severe side effects, and I highly doubt that I'm some outlier. Christ, even my doctor told me to make certain I get the Pfizer shots when the time comes for me to do it.
Misinformation alert. There is zero credible evidence that the Moderna vaccine is less safe than the Pfizer one.

Yes, people sometimes get bad side effects; maybe it's somewhat worse with Moderna. But they are temporary. Unlike the lung scarring from CoVid pneumonia.
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
9,985
I'm well aware of the covid lung damage, having had covid and all. And the added benefit of being a long hauler as the respiratory issues, muscle fatigue and pain, have just gone on. And my doctor, whose opinion I trust a lot more than your uninformed one, did actually tell me to steer clear of the Moderna one as the side effects are more severe. Yes, the side effects are better than covid pneumonia. That doesn't make the side effect issue misinformation.
 

RetractableRoof

tolerates intolerance
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 1, 2003
3,473
Quincy, MA
The Moderna vaccine is kind of problematic anyway. I personally know two people that had it that had severe side effects, and I highly doubt that I'm some outlier. Christ, even my doctor told me to make certain I get the Pfizer shots when the time comes for me to do it.
You aren't allowed to talk about negative side affects of the vaccine. It's conspiracy stuff. Never mind the VAERS data.

All I know is that two iconic (admittedly older) athletes in Hagler and Aaron got the vaccine... so I can imagine there is a certain reluctance to trust the government over this stuff. Add the name Tuskegee and the word 'experimental', and I doubt they get a lot of the players to all jump in line to get a vaccine - unless they make it mandatory... and that presents its own set of problems.

I hope those you know that had negative side effects are doing well.
 

lexrageorge

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2007
11,993
I'm well aware of the covid lung damage, having had covid and all. And the added benefit of being a long hauler as the respiratory issues, muscle fatigue and pain, have just gone on. And my doctor, whose opinion I trust a lot more than your uninformed one, did actually tell me to steer clear of the Moderna one as the side effects are more severe. Yes, the side effects are better than covid pneumonia. That doesn't make the side effect issue misinformation.
Some info from doctors has been as bad or worse in terms of misinformation, with Scott Atlas and Rand Paul being two prominent yet hardly unique examples. I really don't believe we need to promote unfounded anti-vaccination stories about side effects without actual scientific evidence, and that includes the relative side effects of Moderna vs JnJ vs Pfizer vs Sinovac. The anecdotal evidence from the V&N thread on personal experiences shows almost zero difference.

P&G seems like the best place to support the anti-vaxxers.