An Ode to the Fallen: 2024 - 2025 Offseason Thread
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Why are you swapping two player for two players? We are talking about KD or Lebron being on the Celtics in place of Tatum. Or KD or Lebron being on the Nuggets in place of Jokic. Obviously the Denver situation is different because that team has no other center on the roster.
I was just saying for a guy that is supposed to be all-time top 10 or 15 or 20 or whatever, he has never won a damn thing as the alpha dog. LBJ has. I don’t think you can compare the two. KD rode Steph’s coattails to his only titles.
Just for the record, I’m not saying he wasn’t good enough to do it. I was saying he has never done it.
Because it was the premise I was responding to? They said if you switch AD and LeBron or KD and Booker to the Nuggets for what I assume was Joker and Murray.
You know the finals MVP winner isn't necessarily the best player on the team. Unless you'd like to argue that Andre Iguodala was actually the best player on the 2015 Warriors.
KD was better than Curry 2016-2017 Warriors. KD was insanely good that year. He was so efficient he had .651 TS% not playing center.
In the playoffs KD was even more insane going 28.5/8.9/4.3 on .556/442/.893 with .683 TS% with nearly 10 BPM. Outside of assists, Steph trailed KD in nearly everything
He definitely thrived in that environment, and there's definitely an argument that he was the better player. On the other hand, Curry was coming off of back to back MVPs, and I don't think there's another player in league history that has more off-ball impact than Steph Curry (which won't show up in any box score stats). Curry had an insane +15.6 net rating from 2017-2019, while Durant was a solid but more earthbound +9.3. Curry maintained a stronger net rating in the playoffs during those years, +12.3 to +8.7. In a related note, Curry had a small but notable DARKO edge during those years:
Curry tends to have the edge in other all in one advanced metrics as well. It's not cut and dry either way, but given that KD came into a title team already created by Steph, and considering that Steph won another title after KD left, I'm fine with labelling Steph as the #1 on that team.
Fun stat! The Jamal Murray and Tobias Harris rivalry for this title will be the Federer/Nadal of our generation.
Best offseason ever for Ben.
View: https://twitter.com/THR/status/1787600203064987658
At the 2024 #MetGala, Ben Simmons sports a clock briefcase
View: https://twitter.com/THR/status/1787600203064987658
At the 2024 #MetGala, Ben Simmons sports a clock briefcase
So, if you're Spider Mitchell, how are you approaching this coming offseason?
I think there's little question that this Cleveland roster isn't competing for a championship unless either Garland or Mobley take some big leap in the next year or two. The rest of the rotation is relatively average and mostly in the back-half of their careers. And if Garland is something close to his ceiling, the team has huge amount of its cap wrapped up in a sub-All Star level guard who's not a great defender. That story more or less never ends well.
Mitchell is somehow already 28. Wherever he signs next, this contract will be for his last, best window to be a top 3 player on a championship contender.
What are his options?
What do y'all think?
I think there's little question that this Cleveland roster isn't competing for a championship unless either Garland or Mobley take some big leap in the next year or two. The rest of the rotation is relatively average and mostly in the back-half of their careers. And if Garland is something close to his ceiling, the team has huge amount of its cap wrapped up in a sub-All Star level guard who's not a great defender. That story more or less never ends well.
Mitchell is somehow already 28. Wherever he signs next, this contract will be for his last, best window to be a top 3 player on a championship contender.
What are his options?
- Philly is one obvious destination. He would replace Tobias Harris in their salary cap and rotation. If Embiid stays healthy, Philly has the most talented co-stars and a franchise in clear 'win now' mode
- Orlando has the financial flexibility to add Spider without removing anyone in their current rotation, while giving him a a pair of sidekicks in Banchero and Mo's brother that are more likely to get better than worse. Philly with Spider might be the better contender for the 12-24 months. But if Spider wants to maximize his odds over the next 3-4 years, he could see Orlando as the better bet.
- Charlotte is maybe appealing if new management seems more competent than old management? Dunno that I buy that, but that would be the argument
- Toronto and Detroit are more or less bottoms-up rebuilds. If Spider wants to win, they ain't it
- I have to assume Utah is off the table
What do y'all think?
Good question.
If I were a somewhat self-aware version of Mitchell (which may or may not be true of the real Donovan) I’d be looking for a spot where I can be the veteran number two to a rising alpha, or be the 2-3 on a team ready to win now.
Philly fits the second model well, as you note. Only other possibility for that type of fit is the Lakers—-and I don’t really see the pieces to get there. Lebron resigns, you deal Reaves, contracts, and picks? Maybe. Seems hard to pull off.
Orlando fits the former model and you’ve covered it.
My favorite fit? New Orleans, next to Zion. But it would take a McCollum deal (which they seem not to want) and may also take an Ingram deal. So it’s hard to see the path, but that’s a really interesting spot with a lot of defense surrounding him.
The other spot I can kind of see? I know it’s cliche, but he’d be great on the Knicks even if it is a tiny backcourt. They have size up front and could get enough shooting to pull it off.
The really unlikely fit? OKC. You have size at PG, so you can get away with him. He probably is too ball-dominant but I think they will find this playoffs they need a plus creator. And they have picks and assets for this kind of get.
If I were a somewhat self-aware version of Mitchell (which may or may not be true of the real Donovan) I’d be looking for a spot where I can be the veteran number two to a rising alpha, or be the 2-3 on a team ready to win now.
Philly fits the second model well, as you note. Only other possibility for that type of fit is the Lakers—-and I don’t really see the pieces to get there. Lebron resigns, you deal Reaves, contracts, and picks? Maybe. Seems hard to pull off.
Orlando fits the former model and you’ve covered it.
My favorite fit? New Orleans, next to Zion. But it would take a McCollum deal (which they seem not to want) and may also take an Ingram deal. So it’s hard to see the path, but that’s a really interesting spot with a lot of defense surrounding him.
The other spot I can kind of see? I know it’s cliche, but he’d be great on the Knicks even if it is a tiny backcourt. They have size up front and could get enough shooting to pull it off.
The really unlikely fit? OKC. You have size at PG, so you can get away with him. He probably is too ball-dominant but I think they will find this playoffs they need a plus creator. And they have picks and assets for this kind of get.
Wait, am I missing something? Mitchell is under contract for 2024-25. His player option is 25-26.
Cleveland obviously needs to recoup value for him if he doesn't want to extend, but the set of possible teams is now much larger, because it would be a trade, not a signing.
He's always been a target of mine for Boston, because he seems to have a good relationship with Brown and Tatum, but that's not doable now with the 2nd apron preventing aggregation. There are a ton of other targets that make sense though.
The Knicks make so, so much sense. I don't worry about Mitchell's size, because he's really long and can play much bigger than 6-1.
Yeah, I'm always surprised when I see his listed height, but he's never struck me as remotely small on the court.
The answer— and this is frequently the case— is: I’m an idiot.
I mis-remembered that his player option was for next season, and didn’t bother to look it up.
I don’t see how Mitchell and Maxey play together. Seems like an incredible regular season team that would get bounced in the 2nd round of the playoffs. Why not try to find a way to get to San Antonio, recruit one other borderline All-Star and go to work with Wemby and a young core for the next 5 years.
I’ve spoke to this in the past but it also had to do with Utah’s scheme where their guards would bait the ballhandler into the lane where Gobert would be lurking. He is similar to Kyrie in that he can be a very good defensive player when not asked to carry the entire offensive load in the playoffs.
He’s one of the few true alphas that you can build a roster around and this Cavs roster is extremely talented….but they are very young. It’s not too dissimilar to the Celtics pre-Kyrie with so much young talent. Let’s not forget that they are playing this series without a key piece in Jarrett Allen. If these Cavs all remain together they are going to be a problem.
Mitchell moving to Philly would be, from a Celtics perspective, a daunting prospect. They'd line up small at guard, with uneven defense but formidable offensive firepower. Splice in a few defensive-minded wings and the '6ers would amount to a dangerous opponent.
I am NOT going to write the Cavs obituary, because I'm also high on their talent. Even without Allen, people aren't giving them nearly enough credit in this series.
All that said, the issue isn't whether you or I believe in them. It's whether Donovan Mitchell believes in them. If he leaves in UFA in 2025 and they don't get a return, that's franchise-crippling, given the picks out the door for him.
I gave Cleveland credit in the regular season and was taken to task by another poster (can't remember which one), who informed me in no uncertain terms that the Cavs weren't a scary opponent.
Mitchell will continue to scare me until the Cavs are eliminated. And, however irrational this might be, I watched Strus hit enough long 3s against Boston when he was with the Heat that I'll be happy to be past him, too.
Cleveland seems to me a couple of good 3nD wings away from contending. The backcourt and bigs are talented.
Here's what surprised me when I went through that roster: other than Mobley (23) the rest of that roster is over 25, and some of them (Caris LeVert, Niang) are over 30
So, I mean, it feels like Garland and Mobley are the two guys that matter. If they get a lot better in the next couple of years this group's ceiling goes up a lot. And you never know, some of the others might buck the trend.
But the trend is that guys in their late 20s are more or less what they are, with as much chance of getting worse as better. And that's most of this rotation, after the top 3.
I don’t think they fit together in the modern NBA. Just not enough shooting with both on the floor. A lot of people thought Mobley would improve his range but it hasn’t happened yet.
Put another way: for this version of the Cavs to compete for the championship, Mobley needs to make Allen unnecessary, so the Cavs can replace Allen in the rotation with someone who brings more that helps lighten the load on Spider
Yeah the ones that matter are still babies when it comes to being peak playoff performers. Mobley is 22, Garland 24, and Allen is 26 but only 4 years under his belt. As was said above, losing Mitchell would cripple them bc he is their alpha scorer who allows everyone else to play off him.
I just haven't seen the interior defense from Mobley that would allow them to move on from Allen.
Allen is such a difference maker when he’s on. He’s their second most valuable player after Mitchell imo.
If Mitchell wants out, and given that he's under contract, is there sense to a trade based around him and Maxey? I've beaten this drum before but: Maxey, good as he is, isn't a prefect fit with Embiid since he can't (yet) reliably carry the offense on his own, which is what they desperately need. Given his age and trajectory, he's better suited for a rebuilding team, or a team that has a few years to figure things out (e.g. Cleveland). Philly's window is RIGHT NOW, given Embiid's age, so it makes sense to aggregate Maxey's longterm value into a player who is more at the peak of his powers.
Agree with both of these
The bolded part is what Mobley really needs to develop in the coming years for this group to hit their ceiling. If he stays a version of John Collins early years in Atlanta...
Also would be incredible if Philly kick's their cap space down the road another year only to see Mitchell sign an extension with Cleveland
I guess in theory.
I'm not saying Embiid is washed, cooked, toast, whatever. BUT he's hard to count on for an entire season + 2 months in the playoffs due to either: (a) injuries or (b) physical conditioning, due to injury prevention. Joel has entered his 30s, so it will be even more difficult to balance his health/minutes when he does play.
The 76ers are the Wile E. Coyote of the NBA, and this Old Celtic fan is enjoying every minute of it
Good downside comp. Collins was real good those first couple years too but lacked the physicality and played upright. I’d have to guess Mobley lands between being a rich man’s Collins and a poor man’s Bosh.
Ha! Aptly put!The 76ers are the Wile E. Coyote of the NBA, and this Old Celtic fan is enjoying every minute of it
If they could get Donovan to agree to OKC as a destination (worked for PG), OKC for Mitchell makes the most sense for all sides. Cleveland gets a haul with lottery upside; OKC still has tons of assets after giving the haul. The offensive upside is crazy, and the defensive positional fit works.
Imagine rolling out SGA/Donovan/JDub/Chet, and then putting either beef center or shooting wing next to them, depending on what the other team has. That's a ludicrously good, terrifying offense that isn't giving much back on the other end.
Imagine rolling out SGA/Donovan/JDub/Chet, and then putting either beef center or shooting wing next to them, depending on what the other team has. That's a ludicrously good, terrifying offense that isn't giving much back on the other end.
Giddey, Ousmane Dieng and a few picks and swaps makes a lot of sense for both sides
Yeah, give Cleveland Giddey and the Clippers' draft upside, and they could be right back to being good after re-flipping those assets. I'm pretty high on Garland and Mobley though, so ymmv.
Honestly, speaking as a C's fan, it's probably good that Donovan is unlikely to approve OKC, because that would be a legit superteam in the making.
I was thinking Spurs. He’s exactly what they need and they have the assets, if Mitchell were game for it.
He'd be good for SA, but OKC has way, way more assets, and a better base team.
If San Antonio gives up a Mitchell haul, they have Wemby, Mitchell, Vassell, and no more assets.
If OKC gives up a Mitchell haul, they have SGA, Chet, JDub, Mitchell, and a ton more assets to add roleplayers around that.
Here are the first round picks San Antonio has going forward.
2024 - SAS, TOR
2025 - SAS, ATL, CHA, CHI
2026 - ATL swap
2027 - SAS, ATL
2028 - BOS swap
2029 - SAS
2030 - DAL swap
They also have 14 additional seconds through 2030.
They would still have a decent amount of draft assets available if they gave CLE a typical 3 firsts, couple swaps
Yeah, the Spurs have a LOT of draft assets. I am not sure they could give up a player thats interesting though. Cleveland would really have to believe in Keldon Johnson and Tre Jones
True, I forgot about the Murray trade. Yeah, they could definitely go after Mitchell, and would make tons of sense. Obviously doesn't work if he has heart set on NYC.