Allen Craig Released

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I can't feel too bad for anyone making millions doing nothing... but I have some sympathy for anyone's sense of pride, self-worth (and just plain ego bruising) like Craig's whose career has turned into this.
Don't want to turn this into a Ben thread.... but holy crap he made some horrible deals!
 

Coachster

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Will anybody pick him up? It's on our tab, after all. I just wonder in a world where Daniel Bard gets opportunity after opportunity, who will give Allen Craig another shot?
 

trekfan55

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I asked in the game thread, but what is the reason for this move?

They don't need space on the 40 man since he's not on it.
They have to pay him anyways.
 

54thMA

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Will anybody pick him up? It's on our tab, after all. I just wonder in a world where Daniel Bard gets opportunity after opportunity, who will give Allen Craig another shot?
The MFY's and like other washed up tomato cans before him, he'll hit 40 home runs this year thanks to that "training" regimen they've got down there at Williamsport East...................
 

Drek717

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Furiously awful lead in his article http://www.providencejournal.com/sports/20170630/red-sox-release-allen-craig

1) We needed to trade Lackey, and this was the best deal
2) Joe Kelly has probably been the best guy in the bullpen this year not named Craig Kimbrel
Except:
1. Cherington specifically said they took Craig and Kelly over prospect packages because they were rebuilding on the fly, which was absurd given how the actual rebuild of this team from his 2014.

2. Taking just Kelly and not Craig at all would have made this a better deal. Funny thing is at the time I basically called this deal exactly as it played out: Craig was a flier who wasn't likely to pay off and Kelly's real value was in the bullpen. But Cherington wasted two years of team control letting him fail as a starter.

3. Getting literally any of the then prospect OFs that St. Louis didn't expect to have playing time for out of Piscotty, Grichuk, or Pham would have had them substantially better off. In fact, Pham was resigned as a mLFA the year before and the Cards didn't think he'd ever amount to much. He's now looking like the best of the three. Funny enough he's a guy I said the Sox should have been trying to get in this exact deal. A Pischotty/Grichuk + Kelly + Pham deal would have actually been pretty viable from St. Louis' perspective and would have completely removed the need to sign Rusney Castillo.

To summarize: Ben went into the trade market with a clear need for young OFs while Bradley was in the middle of his .531 OPS campaign and Betts was only just on the verge of being ML ready, no other OFs worth mentioning were on the entire ML roster. He had an asset the Cardinals needed. The Cardinals had the most organizational OF depth in all of baseball at the time with the three mentioned above in the minors along with super prospect Oscar Taveras, Matt Holliday under contract through 2016, and Jon Jay and Peter Bourjos under team control through 2015. They also had John Ramsey who they'd traded just the day before to Cleveland for Justin Masterson, a deal they'd likely have changed/not made if needed to get the clearly superior and longer controlled Lackey. He comes away with the guy with the big money contract, the nosediving production, and a lingering foot injury that basically assures he's no longer really capable of playing the OF.

This when the entire city of St. Louis (I lived there at the time) still loved Allen Craig, putting local PR firmly on the side of them moving an unkown prospect from Memphis over him.

This might be the worst GM move of Cherington's career, and that's by the guy who signed Castillo, Sandoval, Hanley, and Porcello, traded Reddick for Bailey after Reddick had hit ML pitching for nearly half a season, and who traded Lester for another short term fix in Yoenis Cespedes, who he then flipped the next winter, only to see Cespedes produce like one of the best power hitters in all of baseball since leaving Boston. Oh, and if instead he'd just kept Cespedes until mid-year instead of trading him in the winter the return would have been Michael Fulmer instead of Rick Porcello.

But still Lackey for Craig + Kelly was a worse deal, because all the rest could be explained away as market dictated values and making the moves needed to fill the holes on the roster (even if he created a good number of them himself). Lackey for Craig + Kelly was a downright bad deal the day it was made and the only value we've extracted from it was produced by doing exactly what Cherington didn't attempt the entire time he still had the ability to do so - moving Kelly to the bullpen.
 

Rudy's Curve

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Yeah, Kelly and Craig have combined for .5 fWAR/1.6 bWAR in almost three years and Craig came with a sizable contract. Even if Lackey's demands were real, it's a pathetic return especially since the advent of the second WC has skewed the market towards sellers.
 

shaggydog2000

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Yeah, Kelly and Craig have combined for .5 fWAR/1.6 bWAR in almost three years and Craig came with a sizable contract. Even if Lackey's demands were real, it's a pathetic return especially since the advent of the second WC has skewed the market towards sellers.
The Sox spent about 46 million dollars and got 0.5 fWar. That is over 90 million a win. And they traded away 4 fWar worth of pitching from Lackey, who pitched the next season for the league minimum. So that means they paid $40 million to lose between 2.4 to 3.5 wins. There is no way in which that is a good deal. There is no way it is not a terrible deal, even if Joe Kelly is currently performing well over a small sample size as a middle reliever.
 

Harry Hooper

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I asked in the game thread, but what is the reason for this move?

They don't need space on the 40 man since he's not on it.
They have to pay him anyways.
He can't possibly help, and even fringe prospects could use the playing time/ABs in AAA.
 

riboflav

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Except:
1. Cherington specifically said they took Craig and Kelly over prospect packages because they were rebuilding on the fly, which was absurd given how the actual rebuild of this team from his 2014.

2. Taking just Kelly and not Craig at all would have made this a better deal. Funny thing is at the time I basically called this deal exactly as it played out: Craig was a flier who wasn't likely to pay off and Kelly's real value was in the bullpen. But Cherington wasted two years of team control letting him fail as a starter.

3. Getting literally any of the then prospect OFs that St. Louis didn't expect to have playing time for out of Piscotty, Grichuk, or Pham would have had them substantially better off. In fact, Pham was resigned as a mLFA the year before and the Cards didn't think he'd ever amount to much. He's now looking like the best of the three. Funny enough he's a guy I said the Sox should have been trying to get in this exact deal. A Pischotty/Grichuk + Kelly + Pham deal would have actually been pretty viable from St. Louis' perspective and would have completely removed the need to sign Rusney Castillo.

To summarize: Ben went into the trade market with a clear need for young OFs while Bradley was in the middle of his .531 OPS campaign and Betts was only just on the verge of being ML ready, no other OFs worth mentioning were on the entire ML roster. He had an asset the Cardinals needed. The Cardinals had the most organizational OF depth in all of baseball at the time with the three mentioned above in the minors along with super prospect Oscar Taveras, Matt Holliday under contract through 2016, and Jon Jay and Peter Bourjos under team control through 2015. They also had John Ramsey who they'd traded just the day before to Cleveland for Justin Masterson, a deal they'd likely have changed/not made if needed to get the clearly superior and longer controlled Lackey. He comes away with the guy with the big money contract, the nosediving production, and a lingering foot injury that basically assures he's no longer really capable of playing the OF.

This when the entire city of St. Louis (I lived there at the time) still loved Allen Craig, putting local PR firmly on the side of them moving an unkown prospect from Memphis over him.

This might be the worst GM move of Cherington's career, and that's by the guy who signed Castillo, Sandoval, Hanley, and Porcello, traded Reddick for Bailey after Reddick had hit ML pitching for nearly half a season, and who traded Lester for another short term fix in Yoenis Cespedes, who he then flipped the next winter, only to see Cespedes produce like one of the best power hitters in all of baseball since leaving Boston. Oh, and if instead he'd just kept Cespedes until mid-year instead of trading him in the winter the return would have been Michael Fulmer instead of Rick Porcello.

But still Lackey for Craig + Kelly was a worse deal, because all the rest could be explained away as market dictated values and making the moves needed to fill the holes on the roster (even if he created a good number of them himself). Lackey for Craig + Kelly was a downright bad deal the day it was made and the only value we've extracted from it was produced by doing exactly what Cherington didn't attempt the entire time he still had the ability to do so - moving Kelly to the bullpen.
This is such an awesome post, I have copied and pasted it into an email to every Sox fan I know, giving you full credit, of course. Thank you.
 

MikeM

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I asked in the game thread, but what is the reason for this move?

They don't need space on the 40 man since he's not on it.
They have to pay him anyways.
Curious about this as well.

Although I guess if he ends up retiring there is no LT penalty concern to hold on to?
 

keninten

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Maybe they know he`s not ever going to be called up so they are giving him a chance to catch on with another team for one last shot.
 

Drek717

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If that's Cherington's worst move, was the failure to re-sign Beltré his worst non-move?
That was Theo and while it cost us the exceptional production Beltre has had since, Anthony Rizzo in order to acquire Adrian Gonzalez, and likely cut short Youk's career as his decline directly coincided with the additional wear and tear on his knees and ankles from playing 3B. It doesn't compare to losing Fisk, though any time Haywood Sullivan is referenced in your defense that itself is damning.
 

joe dokes

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I asked in the game thread, but what is the reason for this move?

They don't need space on the 40 man since he's not on it.
They have to pay him anyways.
They did need the room.
According to the glob,

"There was no particular importance to the timing. The Sox simply needed a roster spot to activate outfielder Aneury Tavarez off the disabled list and decided Craig was expendable."
 

Byrdbrain

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Yeah the PawSox have a roster as well and why keep a guy on it who hasn't been able to hit since 2013.
The surprising thing about this is people are surprised he was released.
 

Boggs26

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The reality is that it doesn't change anything. He was NEVER going to be re-added to the 40 man due to LT costs so the only real change is that the Pawsox average age just went down a notch.

It'll be interesting to see if he retires or tries to catch with another org.
 

Cesar Crespo

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If Craig does catch on with another team, what does that mean to the Redsox? Will the rest of his contract now be on their books and subject to luxury tax purposes? I'm guessing if that was the case, they never would have released him. Seems like another team would pick Craig up just to screw the Redsox over and get more profit sharing.

Also, while the trade was terrible, it has a chance of just being bad. There is about zero chance Joe Kelly continues to pitch to the tune of a 1.05 era and a 3.2 WAR in 2017 and repeat it for 2018, but since he's moved to the bullpen in 2016 he's been worth 2.4 WAR (BREF). If he keeps up that pace, he'll have put up 7.2 WAR in 2 seasons and 1 month. It has to be worth something. If he plays a key role in the Redsox winning a WS the next 2 years, you'd may even say the deal was a good one for the Redsox. It just took forever to pay off.

Kelly since moving to the pen last year: 43 games, 0.94 era, 47.2ip, 6xbh (5 doubles, 1 HR) 1.028 WHIP, 18bb/44k, .185/.263/.232, .247 BAbip 23.7%K/9.7%BB. He also hasn't given up a run in his last 22 outings: 20.1ip, .983 WHIP, 7bb/19k, .183/.256/.225, .250 BAbip. Maybe he walks more than one would like, but it's next to impossible to get an XBH off Joe Kelly and 54/94 hit ball outs have been via groundball.

But yeah, Joe Kelly is pretty close to being a relief ace and has pitched like one his entire career out of the bullpen in the minors and in the majors.
 

dcmissle

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This is such an awesome post, I have copied and pasted it into an email to every Sox fan I know, giving you full credit, of course. Thank you.
The post is devastating.

As was Theo's white whale obsession with AG. The round trip cost may be two hall of fame players -- Beltre is a lock; Rizzo is interesting.
 

dhappy42

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The post is devastating.

As was Theo's white whale obsession with AG. The round trip cost may be two hall of fame players -- Beltre is a lock; Rizzo is interesting.
Three HoFers, if you count Theo.

Seriously, although the Deification of Saint Theo, patron saint of long-lost baseball franchises, is well-deserved, the guy isn't perfect. He made a lot of big mistakes too -- not just letting Beltre go and trading Rizzo for AGon. And unlike a lot of "moneyball" GMs, he basically had a blank check from owners.
 
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Mighty Joe Young

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Three HoFers, if you count Theo.

Seriously, although the Deification of Saint Theo, patron saint of long-lost baseball franchises, is well-deserved, the guy isn't perfect. He made a lot of big mistakes too -- not just letting Beltre go and trading Rizzo for AGon. And unlike a lot of "moneyball" GMs, he basically had a blank check from owners.
I'm afraid I'm going to have to disagree with the notion that the AGon deal was a mistake. IIRC it was widely praised hearabouts at the time. And for good reason I think. Rizzo was more or less a throw in in the deal. He was completely blocked with Gonzalez moving here so was easy to include. It was widely thought that Gonzalez's swing was tailor made for Fenway.

It didn't work out .. partly due to the injury that robbed much of AGon's power ..
 

grimshaw

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Rusney Castillo would have been back at some point too, plus Holt rehabbing.

Rizzo was more or less a throw in in the deal. He was completely blocked with Gonzalez moving here so was easy to include. It was widely thought that Gonzalez's swing was tailor made for Fenway.

It didn't work out .. partly due to the injury that robbed much of AGon's power ..
I don't think you mean throw in, I think you mean they had a surplus at the position. It was him and Casey Kelly as the centerpieces. Rizzo was 70ish and Kelly 30ish in the top 100. Reymond Fuentes was kind of a B guy and then Eric Patterson, your throw in.
 

Mighty Joe Young

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Rusney Castillo would have been back at some point too, plus Holt rehabbing.



I don't think you mean throw in, I think you mean they had a surplus at the position. It was him and Casey Kelly as the centerpieces. Rizzo was 70ish and Kelly 30ish in the top 100. Reymond Fuentes was kind of a B guy and then Eric Patterson, your throw in.
Semantics I guess .. my memory tells me Kelly was the centrepiece and Rizzo secondary - if not a throw in. Regardless, my point is that it was a perfectly good deal at the time. Evaluating deals based on hindsight is a fruitless enterprise IMO.
 

dcmissle

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It doesn't matter. Universal applause in real time means little -- David Price acquisition, anyone? AGon was an obsession; Julio Lugo was one too. Never, ever fall too much in love with one player. I'll listen intently to Beltre's acceptance speech in Cooperstown.
 

MtPleasant Paul

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The Red Sox were probably considering a couple of things when deciding to re-sign Beltre. The 2011 draft class was expected to be a spectacular one and MLB was considering making changes down the road to curb the ability of wealthy teams to use lower round draft choices to snare top prospects. The Sox probably decided that an opportunity like this might not reoccur for a long time and tried for a sensational draft. They were successful. They drafted Matt Barnes, Blake Swihart, Jackie Bradley, Mookie Betts (fifth round), and Travis Shaw (ninth round). They got Bradley and Swihart as compensation for Beltre. (They got Barnes as compensation for Victor Martinez.)

Beltre came to Boston "to reestablish his value" after four unspectacular years at Seattle where he had signed a lucrative contract after one blowout year in LA. There was some feeling at the time, and the Red Sox may have shared it, that he performed very well only in walk years. His years in Texas have been Hall of Fame quality but they could not have been all that easily predicted.
 

MikeM

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Back then that Agon deal looked like a steal imo. I don't recall too many people beating the "Anthony Rizzo is the future and solution to our big bat woes!" drum all that loudly at the time either.

Beltre is another one that gets a lot more overall hindsight love then he then too. Which happened at a time when a lot of people were taking a more conservative outlook stance on aging players leaving their prime then they were after-the-fact, and as already noted above what happened there was hardly an easy projection.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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There's little if any evidence out there to prove this... but I definitely thought Rizzo was the real deal based on his mL numbers. The Sox (and Sox prospects) were still behind Lars Anderson being the future... I took the AGon trade as Theo being happy he held onto his future (AGon moving to DH with only 2...3 years left of Ortiz?) 1B if the future.
I never liked letting Rizzo go... it was all pedigree based
 

grimshaw

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There's little if any evidence out there to prove this... but I definitely thought Rizzo was the real deal based on his mL numbers. The Sox (and Sox prospects) were still behind Lars Anderson being the future... I took the AGon trade as Theo being happy he held onto his future (AGon moving to DH with only 2...3 years left of Ortiz?) 1B if the future.
I never liked letting Rizzo go... it was all pedigree based
I was following him too and was sorry to have to include him but it's not like I was upset given having a legit all-star coming back. He had to go through Hodkins as well so was easy to root for.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Back then that Agon deal looked like a steal imo. I don't recall too many people beating the "Anthony Rizzo is the future and solution to our big bat woes!" drum all that loudly at the time either.

Beltre is another one that gets a lot more overall hindsight love then he then too. Which happened at a time when a lot of people were taking a more conservative outlook stance on aging players leaving their prime then they were after-the-fact, and as already noted above what happened there was hardly an easy projection.
I was one of the few. Rizzo was a 20 year old in AA who was just coming off a 25 HR season. If he were to do that today, there is no way he would be traded.
 

nvalvo

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I was one of the few. Rizzo was a 20 year old in AA who was just coming off a 25 HR season. If he were to do that today, there is no way he would be traded.
Let's pause this conversation to consider that Rafael Devers is a 20 year old in AA who has *already* hit 17 HR in a half season, as part of a much stronger offensive line than Rizzo's 2010 season.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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I was and still am of the belief they should have traded Youkilis and still made the Gonzalez trade, while resigning Beltre. They possibly could have retained Rizzo using pieces gathered from moving Youk. Whether that meant he'd be blocked for a bit or they kept the powder dry on him for something else, I was convinced (somewhat irrationally because of my dislike of him) he was smoke and mirrors and would hit a rapid decline. I didn't think it would be that quick though.
 

soxhop411

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I was and still am of the belief they should have traded Youkilis and still made the Gonzalez trade, while resigning Beltre. They possibly could have retained Rizzo using pieces gathered from moving Youk. Whether that meant he'd be blocked for a bit or they kept the powder dry on him for something else, I was convinced (somewhat irrationally because of my dislike of him) he was smoke and mirrors and would hit a rapid decline. I didn't think it would be that quick though.
People keep forgetting. The picks we got from Tex for beltre netted us Blake Swihart 26th overall and Jackie Bradley Jr. with the 40th overall pick. If we kept beltre there is a good chance to we get neither of those players.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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People keep forgetting. The picks we got from Tex for beltre netted us Blake Swihart 26th overall and Jackie Bradley Jr. with the 40th overall pick. If we kept beltre there is a good chance to we get neither of those players.
Not forgetting anything, I assure you. I'd make that swap any day.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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As in you would take the 2 picks over Beltre?
No, as in I'd take take the initial five year deal Beltre got over what we've gotten from JBJ and what is ultimately turning into a mediocre prospect in Swihart. As others have stated, 3B has been a suckhole, Beltre has been a HoF level player and while JBJ is nice, he's likely walking when he's a FA and this team could have easily fixed the CF situation without him.

Edit: which I fully admit is in part hindsight, but I just thought at the time they should have kept him. We had no idea who would sign him, if we would even get picks, who we would take etc, I just thought he was a great fit and worth the money, also thinking that Youk would crap out soon. And in retrospect, knowing what we know with how everything turned out, I'd double down on that.
 
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JimD

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That was Theo and while it cost us the exceptional production Beltre has had since, Anthony Rizzo in order to acquire Adrian Gonzalez, and likely cut short Youk's career as his decline directly coincided with the additional wear and tear on his knees and ankles from playing 3B.
There's also the fact that with Beltre's Sox contract almost certainly having a year or two still to go in the winter of 2014-15, Ben never signs Pablo Sandoval.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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There's also the fact that with Beltre's Sox contract almost certainly having a year or two still to go in the winter of 2014-15, Ben never signs Pablo Sandoval.
On the flip side of that what-if, it's probably still likely that Theo signs Carl Crawford even if Beltre was kept, so without Gonzalez as the sweetener, maybe there are no takers of Crawford's albatross and Beckett's rotting shoulder and the freed money isn't spent so judiciously before 2013 and perhaps that championship never happens.

And maybe with Crawford and Beckett still on the books, the team can't afford to extend an aging Ortiz after a blah 2013 campaign. In Ortiz's absence, they eventually move the aging Beltre to DH to make room for their new and younger free agent 3B...Pablo Sandoval.

Make believe is fun, isn't it?
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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On the flip side of that what-if, it's probably still likely that Theo signs Carl Crawford even if Beltre was kept, so without Gonzalez as the sweetener, maybe there are no takers of Crawford's albatross and Beckett's rotting shoulder and the freed money isn't spent so judiciously before 2013 and perhaps that championship never happens.

And maybe with Crawford and Beckett still on the books, the team can't afford to extend an aging Ortiz after a blah 2013 campaign. In Ortiz's absence, they eventually move the aging Beltre to DH to make room for their new and younger free agent 3B...Pablo Sandoval.

Make believe is fun, isn't it?
Not that I disagree with your point (I don't, at all... it's spot on) but Ortiz's 2013 as a "blah" season is pretty funny.

150 wRC+, 30 HR, 309/395/564.

If you meant 2012 he was even better. In fact, his last (and only) blah season was 2009 with an exactly league average bat while still blasting 28 home runs.

The man was remarkable.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Not that I disagree with your point (I don't, at all... it's spot on) but Ortiz's 2013 as a "blah" season is pretty funny.

150 wRC+, 30 HR, 309/395/564.

If you meant 2012 he was even better. In fact, his last (and only) blah season was 2009 with an exactly league average bat while still blasting 28 home runs.

The man was remarkable.
Hey, it's fantasy world. In my vision, without Gonzalez around (whom Papi credits for helping him out, particularly vs LHP), Ortiz doesn't experience the same resurgence from his "down" years in 2009 and 2010. So in 2013, in the last year of his contract, Ortiz has a season more typical of an aging, declining 37 year old, especially one coming off half a season of Achilles problems. Hence the "blah".