ALDS vs. MFY—Buckle Up

joe dokes

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Obviously everyone would like a better bullpen but I think it is conceivable they could get by with a pen of Kimbrel, Barnes, ERod and "starter not starting for a few days'.
The guys who do start need to be pretty good and they need to score runs as it is unlikely they will win many 1-0 games with that approach but it can be done.
I'm also not ready to abandon Brasier after one bad outing, he'll get more chances and hopefully he'll be better.

The approach isn't sustainable over a season but they only need to win 6 more games to get to the WS and if they can do that they should have a pretty significant advantage over whoever they play.
As bad as they were, they all got outs. Even Brasier. I think all of the NYY runs before Judge were scored on outs. At 5-0, that's a fair trade.
Up by 5 with four innings left, a run an inning is a win.

I also think the game plan must be "no fastballs." Tricky, obviously, because of control, especially this crew. But, the Yankees live and die by the HR. Keep them in the park, and they only get 1 run at a time. From a pitching standpoint, a walk *is* better than an HR.

I was kidding about "weak." I think your take was spot on. Guy was nervous. Up by 5 is a nice time to get him in. I expect better next time.

And I will never say anything bad about Sandy's bat again. Last night was a catching clinic.
 

JimD

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And I agree with RedOctober that the other relievers looked nervous, particularly Brasier. This doesn't mean anybody is "weak". But it was his first postseason appearance ever, and he did look like he was overdosing on adrenaline a tad bit. That's OK -- he got it out of his system, they won anyway, and there didn't appear to be anything wrong with him mechanically. His velocity was fine, his breaking pitch was doing what it does. His command was just nonexistent. Hopefully that's a one-time thing.
I'm optimistic that adrenaline and nerves were at the heart of Brasier's performance last night, and that hopefully he (and Workman) got it out of their systems and build confidence from here. It's October baseball, we all knew it was never going to be easy.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I'm optimistic that adrenaline and nerves were at the heart of Brasier's performance last night, and that hopefully he (and Workman) got it out of their systems and build confidence from here. It's October baseball, we all knew it was never going to be easy.
It should have already been out of Workman's system. He was huge in 2013.
 

BaseballJones

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Game 2 played on my simulator board game...

Yankees 6, Red Sox 4

Luke Voit hit a two run homer in the second inning off David Price, but a two-run home run by Jackie Bradley in the fourth inning following an error by Yankee third baseman Miguel Andujar put the Sox on top 3-2. After the Voit homer, Price was excellent, retiring nine Yankees in a row at one point. He ran into trouble in the top of the fifth, however, giving up consecutive singles to Judge and Hicks. Steven Wright started warming but Price had to face Stanton, who launched a two-run double to put NY back on top 4-3. Wright entered the game and promptly gave up a run-scoring double to Gregorius to give the Yankees a 5-3 lead. Boston came back in the bottom of the fifth off Yankee starter Tanaka, with singles by Bradley and Leon and a one-out walk to Benintendi, which loaded the bases. Betances came in for New York and JD Martinez knocked Bradley in with a sharp single to left to cut the lead to 5-4. Xander Bogaerts then hit into a 6-4-3 double play to end the threat.

NY tacked on an insurance run following an error by Rafael Devers, consecutive singles by Gregorius and Sanchez off Joe Kelly, and then a bases-loaded walk for Voit after Brandon Workman relieved Kelly. Workman got out of further trouble but Boston faced a two-run deficit. In the 9th, Chapman got the first two outs and then walked Moreland and Devers, bringing up Ian Kinsler. But Chapman struck Kinsler out to end the game, with NY winning 6-4.

Stanton went 2-5 and Voit had a 1-3 day with a homer and three RBI. For the Sox, Betts and Martinez each had two hits and Bradley went 2-4 with a homer and two RBI. Sandy Leon contributed three hits in a surprising outburst as well. Price ended up going 4.1 innings, allowing 6 hits and 5 runs, walking none and striking out 7. Tanaka wasn't much more effective, going 4 innings, allowing 7 hits and 1 walk and giving up 3 runs. Boston actually outhit NY 12-11 and put 17 guys on base (12 hits, 4 walks, and a NY error) but squandered a huge chance in the first inning when Bets doubled, Benintendi grounded out to second, moving Betts to third, Martinez doubled Betts home, then Bogaerts followed with a single and Moreland with a walk to load the bases with one out. But Tanaka struck out Devers and Kinsler to end the threat and hold Boston to just the one run.

Series tied 1-1.
 

patoaflac

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I believe E-Rod will be the long term guy. Depending on who and for how long Cora uses Eovaldi or Porcello today, he will determine who pitches game 3. If there is a game 4 (hope not, yesternight was a horror movie) and Sox lead the series, the other righty will start; if they are behind, Sale for game 4 and everyone (starting with Price) for game 5.
 

LynnRice75

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The Yankees have homered at a ridiculous pace lately. Our relievers were unable to consistently throw strikes, but they kept the ball in the park - aside from the solo shot in the ninth. I’ll take a few walks and could-be-a-double-play-if-they-were-not-do-feebly-hit grounders over a three run bomb any day.

Here’s hoping we get an early lead and the pen keeps the ball in the park again.
 

TheYaz67

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Really glad we were not the ONE home team that lost game 1.... especially with Price going tonight, who has a freaking awful career ALDS record. I am sure had they lost game 1 that the chances of Price imploding early in this game would be high, but hopefully he pitches with confidence now which at least gives me some hope. I have very low expectations of Price, but am willing to be pleasantly surprised.

I think the Yankees will be pressing a bit more at the plate down 1 game and after all the frustrating LOB last night, so hopefully the pitching coaches give Price a game plan to try and capitalize on that and also hope that he executes it....

Am also in support of getting Holt and Devers in there for some more offense - the 6 - 9 in last night's game was a black hole of suck, and we need to score runs to beat the Yankees lineup (b/c of our bullpen) as many have already pointed out. Both those guys in the past have had some key hits in big games against the Yankees, so I hope Core rolls the dice and puts them in...
 

luckysox

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It’s has to be calm in the midst of the storm - and I mean us in the game-thread. After a decent sleep and some coffee, it’s hard to say the bullpen didn’t do its job. Bent, did not break. Came close. But turns out coming close to breaking is still a win. Buckle up, indeed.
 

RedOctober3829

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As bad as they were, they all got outs. Even Brasier. I think all of the NYY runs before Judge were scored on outs. At 5-0, that's a fair trade.
Up by 5 with four innings left, a run an inning is a win.

I also think the game plan must be "no fastballs." Tricky, obviously, because of control, especially this crew. But, the Yankees live and die by the HR. Keep them in the park, and they only get 1 run at a time. From a pitching standpoint, a walk *is* better than an HR.

I was kidding about "weak." I think your take was spot on. Guy was nervous. Up by 5 is a nice time to get him in. I expect better next time.

And I will never say anything bad about Sandy's bat again. Last night was a catching clinic.
They got outs, but it was a complete tightrope act the entire time. Brasier got 1 out in the 3 batters he faced, threw a wild pitch to advance a runner into scoring position, and only threw 8 strikes in 15 pitches. Not what you want from one of the high leverage guys. Workman let 3 of the 4 batters he face reach base but did get a huge out to strand the bases loaded in the 6th. He only threw 8 strikes in 17 pitches. Barnes helped make the bases loaded mess by throwing a wild pitch and walking Gardner but stepped up to only allow that 1 run after that despite only throwing 11 strikes in his 20 pitches.

Yes, Leon was a wall back behind the plate. He saved the pitchers' bacon more than a few times.

The point being is that in a 5-0 game in the 6th it should not have to come down to having to use 5 guys to get the last 10 outs of the game. Letting 2 inherited runners to score and allowing 2 other runs is going to lose most postseason games. If this is what it's going to be like, we all better hope the offense gets this team out to a big lead every game.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I think this team is good enough to win in spite of their bullpen. We'll just be on the edge of our seats after the 5th or 6th inning every game.
 

joe dokes

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They got outs, but it was a complete tightrope act the entire time. Brasier got 1 out in the 3 batters he faced, threw a wild pitch to advance a runner into scoring position, and only threw 8 strikes in 15 pitches. Not what you want from one of the high leverage guys. Workman let 3 of the 4 batters he face reach base but did get a huge out to strand the bases loaded in the 6th. He only threw 8 strikes in 17 pitches. Barnes helped make the bases loaded mess by throwing a wild pitch and walking Gardner but stepped up to only allow that 1 run after that despite only throwing 11 strikes in his 20 pitches.

Yes, Leon was a wall back behind the plate. He saved the pitchers' bacon more than a few times.

The point being is that in a 5-0 game in the 6th it should not have to come down to having to use 5 guys to get the last 10 outs of the game. Letting 2 inherited runners to score and allowing 2 other runs is going to lose most postseason games. If this is what it's going to be like, we all better hope the offense gets this team out to a big lead every game.
"it should not have" is ridiculous. It did. And they won. And its who they are. NYY also let in two IRs, despite their pregame Hall of Fame induction.
Its baseball. All the parts don't work all the time. And they have a manager that understands that. This isn't some style points game. Its not unreasonable to think that this Sox offense cant get 5 runs again. And its not unreasonable to think that the Sox pen *will* cost a game along the way.
 

joe dokes

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He's probably just not that good and adrenaline is an excuse.

Does anyone really have any faith in Workman or want to see him pitching?

He's one of many inconsistent Sox relievers. He had many more good games than bad this year. Last night all of those types -- inconsistent, more good than bad -- were on the badder side. But they won. I'm good with Workman. I'd be nervous if the Sox brought in Sidd Finch to pitch to Craig Grebeck. Its baseball.
 

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He's one of many inconsistent Sox relievers. He had many more good games than bad this year. Last night all of those types -- inconsistent, more good than bad -- were on the badder side. But they won. I'm good with Workman. I'd be nervous if the Sox brought in Sidd Finch to pitch to Craig Grebeck. Its baseball.
Grebeck owned Finch, much like Tommy Hutton and Tom Seaver.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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"it should not have" is ridiculous. It did. And they won. And its who they are. NYY also let in two IRs, despite their pregame Hall of Fame induction.
Its baseball. All the parts don't work all the time. And they have a manager that understands that. This isn't some style points game. Its not unreasonable to think that this Sox offense cant get 5 runs again. And its not unreasonable to think that the Sox pen *will* cost a game along the way.
The bolded is why I'm not even close to panicking about the bullpen. He can only work with who he as to work with. Brasier and Workman and (eventually) Kelly will have to pitch in this series. And when they do, he'll ride them if they're getting people out and he'll yank them the fuck out if they aren't. Seemed to me like as soon as someone put a runner on, he had someone up and warming. And for the guys that came in with runners on, he gave them one batter then had someone up behind them. He didn't let anyone implode or get shelled.

So far, at least, I like what I see of Playoff Cora.
 

RedOctober3829

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"it should not have" is ridiculous. It did. And they won. And its who they are. NYY also let in two IRs, despite their pregame Hall of Fame induction.
Its baseball. All the parts don't work all the time. And they have a manager that understands that. This isn't some style points game. Its not unreasonable to think that this Sox offense cant get 5 runs again. And its not unreasonable to think that the Sox pen *will* cost a game along the way.
Now it's ridiculous to expect a bullpen to come into a 5-0 game in the 6th inning and not turn it into a tightrope act? That's a pretty low standard to cross. To compare the Yankees bullpen performance last night to the Sox is laughable. Green let the 2 inherited runners score in the 3rd inning, then their pen shut the Red Sox out for the last 5 innings. Their pen's performance kept them in the game to where they could make that comeback.

Yes, style points don't matter and they won the game so we're all happy. But, they are not always going to be afforded a big lead and a big margin for error. It could be as soon as tonight that they are going to have to be trusted to come into a tight game with no margins for error and give up nothing.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Now it's ridiculous to expect a bullpen to come into a 5-0 game in the 6th inning and not turn it into a tightrope act? That's a pretty low standard to cross. To compare the Yankees bullpen performance last night to the Sox is laughable. Green let the 2 inherited runners score in the 3rd inning, then their pen shut the Red Sox out for the last 5 innings. Their pen's performance kept them in the game to where they could make that comeback.

Yes, style points don't matter and they won the game so we're all happy. But, they are not always going to be afforded a big lead and a big margin for error. It could be as soon as tonight that they are going to have to be trusted to come into a tight game with no margins for error and give up nothing.
It's ridiculous to expect it never to happen. It happens even to the Yankees. I agree comparing their performances last night is definitely laughable though.

Yankees bullpen: 6ip, 4hits, 2bb/5k. 2ir.
Sox bullpen 3.2ip, 5 hits, 3bb/5k, 2er, 2ir.

But the Yankees bullpen gave up 2 IR too! That's one way to look at it.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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It could be as soon as tonight that they are going to have to be trusted to come into a tight game with no margins for error and give up nothing.
And on that occasion, they may well do it...as they have done many, many times this year. It's in the nature of fans, maybe especially Sox fans, to extrapolate from negative data while ignoring positive data--especially when it comes to bullpens. But the fact is that the Sox had one of the best bullpens in the American League this year, and they did their job far more often than they didn't. There's no reason to assume they won't do their job in the playoffs just because the first data point happens to be negative.
 

joe dokes

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Now it's ridiculous to expect a bullpen to come into a 5-0 game in the 6th inning and not turn it into a tightrope act? That's a pretty low standard to cross. To compare the Yankees bullpen performance last night to the Sox is laughable. Green let the 2 inherited runners score in the 3rd inning, then their pen shut the Red Sox out for the last 5 innings. Their pen's performance kept them in the game to where they could make that comeback.

Yes, style points don't matter and they won the game so we're all happy. But, they are not always going to be afforded a big lead and a big margin for error. It could be as soon as tonight that they are going to have to be trusted to come into a tight game with no margins for error and give up nothing.
No, it ridiculous to wonder about what would have happened if something that didn't happen happened.

Green gave up the winning runs. Its probably haunting him.

Today's another game. It probably wont go like yesterday's game. Unless it does. And if enough players suck, their team will lose.
 

Devizier

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The Sox blueprint for success this series is to get decent innings from the starters, pelt the Yankees starters, and hang on with the pen. Seems like that’s how game one went and pretty much every other win will go that way too.
 

ifmanis5

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Sox threw Sale at home and barely scraped out a W. Can't say I'm super confident about the best of the series. They have to knock out the Yankee starter early and often for their best chance.
 

Cesar Crespo

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The Sox blueprint for success this series is to get decent innings from the starters, pelt the Yankees starters, and hang on with the pen. Seems like that’s how game one went and pretty much every other win will go that way too.
They've had some pretty good success against the Yankees pen too.
 

BornToRun

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Sox threw Sale at home and barely scraped out a W. Can't say I'm super confident about the best of the series. They have to knock out the Yankee starter early and often for their best chance.
I’m feeling decently confident because they took Game 1 of a 5 game set against a great team. The Yankees can have their silver linings and the momentum, I’ll take the 1-0 lead to start off the series.
 

BaseballJones

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Sox threw Sale at home and barely scraped out a W. Can't say I'm super confident about the best of the series. They have to knock out the Yankee starter early and often for their best chance.
Doesn't matter if they "barely" scraped out a W. It's one win. One they really needed to have, and they got it. I agree on the confidence piece - this is a very scary series.

To the point about knocking the Yankee starter out early...

May 10 - Sox won 5-4. They were up 4-0 then the Sox pen blew it and were tied 4-4. Then the Sox scored of Betances in the 8th as Martinez went yard.

Aug 5 - Sox won 5-4. They were down 4-1 going into the 8th and scored three in the 8th off Chapman and one in the 9th off Holder for the win.

Sep 20 - Sox won 11-6. They were down 6-4 going into the 5th. They scored one in the 5th to cut it to 6-5, and then pummeled Betances, Green, and Chapman for 3 runs in the 8th and three more in the 9th. Those three (along with Robertson, the best group of relievers they have) combined to allow 5 hits, 2 walks, and 6 runs in just 2.2 ip.

So yeah, the Sox have been able at times to get to the Yankee bullpen and come back late in games.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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And on that occasion, they may well do it...as they have done many, many times this year. It's in the nature of fans, maybe especially Sox fans, to extrapolate from negative data while ignoring positive data--especially when it comes to bullpens. But the fact is that the Sox had one of the best bullpens in the American League this year, and they did their job far more often than they didn't. There's no reason to assume they won't do their job in the playoffs just because the first data point happens to be negative.
Expanding on this:

In an average outing vs. the Yankees this year, the Sox bullpen pitched 3.2 innings, giving up 3 runs on 4 hits (1 HR), 2 walks and 4 Ks. We took 10 of 19 games from them this year, with that as our typical bullpen performance.

The Sox bullpen last night pitched 3.2 innings, giving up 2 runs on 4 hits (1 HR), 3 walks and 5 Ks. We won the game, just barely, with a typical bullpen performance.

In short, nothing unexpected or alarming is happening. It's all unfolding normally. But part of "unfolding normally" is that these teams are matched quite evenly and anything can happen. Anxiety is warranted. Pessimism is not.
 

RedOctober3829

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Expanding on this:

In an average outing vs. the Yankees this year, the Sox bullpen pitched 3.2 innings, giving up 3 runs on 4 hits (1 HR), 2 walks and 4 Ks. We took 10 of 19 games from them this year, with that as our typical bullpen performance.

The Sox bullpen last night pitched 3.2 innings, giving up 2 runs on 4 hits (1 HR), 3 walks and 5 Ks. We won the game, just barely, with a typical bullpen performance.

In short, nothing unexpected or alarming is happening. It's all unfolding normally. But part of "unfolding normally" is that these teams are matched quite evenly and anything can happen. Anxiety is warranted. Pessimism is not.
Do you not factor inherited runs allowed?
 

sean1562

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If ERod is def not starting this series, I expect to see him start a few clean innings over the next few games. ERod out of the pen is a pretty good weapon
 

dhappy42

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Bullpen ERA:

Yankees = 3.38
Red Sox = 3.74

Over five games, three bullpen innings per game, plus three innings to round up to 18 total innings, that’d be:

Runs Given Up by Bullpen:

Yankees = 6.76 runs, round up to 7 runs
Red Sox = 7.58 runs, round up to 8 runs

Of course, you gotta play the games, but my point is that the Yankees bullpen is about one run better than the Red Sox bullpen over five games. It’s not as if they Yankees have a great bullpen and ours sucks, despite what we saw last night.

Sure, I’d rather have Robertson and Britton than Brasier and Barnes, but I’d also rather have Porcello and Eovaldi available for playoff spot relief work than Sabbathia and Lynn. And Kimbrel over Chapman every time. Their bullpen is better, but not by much.
 

Al Zarilla

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I was hoping for more from Kinsler after they got him but now, I'd rather have Holt starting at 2B. Sandy's bat is bad enough, Kinsler has become a pop-up machine.
Kinsler had a single last night but K'd three times. I don't know if Cora will see the hit as progress. But, we don't know if Cora is even considering benching Kinsler. As people keep pointing out here, Kinsler is a solid defensive second baseman. He finished second this year among all Major League second basemen to the Rockies LeMahieu in Fangraphs defensive metric.
 
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OurF'ingCity

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Sure, I’d rather have Robertson and Britton than Brasier and Barnes, but I’d also rather have Porcello and Eovaldi available for playoff spot relief work than Sabbathia and Lynn. And Kimbrel over Chapman every time. Their bullpen is better, but not by much.
This is a good point - the Yankees' bullpen advantage is mitigated somewhat by the fact that the Sox have better options out of the pen that they didn't have during the regular season in the form of guys like Porcello, Eovaldi and Rodriguez (and heck I could even see Price pitching out of the bullpen for an inning if the situation warranted it although his lack of success against the Yankees makes that less likely for this series at least).
 

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This is a good point - the Yankees' bullpen advantage is mitigated somewhat by the fact that the Sox have better options out of the pen that they didn't have during the regular season in the form of guys like Porcello, Eovaldi and Rodriguez (and heck I could even see Price pitching out of the bullpen for an inning if the situation warranted it although his lack of success against the Yankees makes that less likely for this series at least).
Sale might very well be available for an inning on Monday if the situation warrants.
 
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Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
Do you not factor inherited runs allowed?
I tend to think IR numbers are overrated, if only because they don't distinguish between a guy who comes in with a guy on third and nobody out and gives up a sac fly and a guy who comes in with a guy on first and two out and gives up a triple. But sure, let's look at that. Sox relievers inherited a total of 7 runners last night, and 3 of them scored (43%). Their season average is 32%, so that's one runner worse than normal (though if they had prevented that extra runner, it would have been a bit better than normal). I don't have IR numbers against the Yankees; you'd have to parse the 19 individual box scores to get that, and life is too short.
 

nvalvo

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I'm in ATL for a friend's wedding, so I followed last night's game after the third (and will follow tonight's) mostly via checkins via the cell phone.

I just got a minute of downtime to watch the condensed game, and I have to say, the bullpen wasn't as bad as people are saying. A lot of the Yankee offensive innings hinged on balls in play hit too softly for inning-ending double plays, and that tells you something. On the other side of the ledger, Sanchez' liner off Porcello was the only real hard hit ball for an out.

I'm not saying they were great. I'm saying if those groundballs from Didi and Voit were hit a tic harder this was a comfortable win.
 

soxhop411

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Cora has not decided who starts game three... Either Eovaldi or Porcello
 

DeadlySplitter

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one issue is our relative power outage in the 2nd half has carried over, while the Yanks still of course have theirs (and Sanchez looks like his 2017 self right now)
 

soxhop411

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Betts, Benintendi and Martinez were a combined one for 11 tonight. I would argue that, along with Price not pitching well, was what failed to put the Sox in the position to win.

People wanted Devers and yet he looked bad in his one AB. People were upset that we didn't see Wright last night (now we know why) and for a number of other moves and non-moves the past two games. I don't know if I can judge Cora that harshly because the reality is that this is a pretty stacked roster and several top players didn't perform well. Unless you think managers can coax performances out of players - and I don't really think they can, especially at this level - I am not sure what Cora did terribly wrong here.

In the end, you may well be right and Cora may be overmatched. Boone may well be a much better manager or maybe the Sox really do need a more veteran guy. However I would argue that even beloved guys like Tito or guys pundits like to laud as geniuses like Maddon have looked bad as a result of their team's performances in the post-season.

These are short series and players can play poorly - David Ortiz was 2-22 against Detroit in the 2013 ALCS. That wasn't on Farrell and Ortiz clearly redeemed himself after that. But these games can make even the best players look like they, and their managers, are simply terrible.
after the third inning of yesterdays game we had 3 hits..


5 of our 8 hits came either in the third inning or first inning...

Today, we had 5 hits...

our 5 hits consisted of.

(3) innings with 1 hit

(1) innings of 2 hits

the rest of the innings Zero hits..
 

sean1562

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What makes people think Sale on short rest is something they would even consider given his health issues?
This team is not guaranteed a run next season. They could be great but they Yanks could be better and win the division. Win or go home, Sale NEEDS to be out there. I dont think we have more than one more season with the guy, and how valuable is an ace if you cant ride him in the playoffs? How valuable is an ace if he can only be dominant for 2/3 of the season, and then be "handled" in the playoffs?