ALDS vs. MFY—Buckle Up

DeadlySplitter

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re, CC: looking great against the Orioles is a criterion?

I would say JBJ is a top candidate for an X factor on our side
 

geoduck no quahog

not particularly consistent
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I'll start:

Defense

Leon over Sanchez
Moreland over Voit
Kinsler over Torres
Andujar / Devers a wash
Bogaerts / Gregorius a wash
Benintendi over McCutchen
Bradley over Hicks
Betts over Judge

(edge Boston - no surprise)

Offense (I'm assuming NYY lineup)
Betts over McCutchen
Judge over Benintendi
Martinez over Hicks
Stanton over Bogaerts
Voit over Moreland
Gregorius over Kinsler
Andujar over Devers
Sanchez over Leon
Torres over Bradley

Taken that way...doesn't look so good.

I'm stupid.
 

BaseballJones

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Your point about Judge is fair, but I think it does a disservice to Mookie who has been consistent this season and I think is likely to perform to his season averages from this season, as opposed to the past 2 seasons. Nevertheless, a statement like "Judge could outplay Betts over a 5 game sample" is so obvious as to be meaningless. JBJ could catch fire too and outhit Stanton. Ultimately, I give the nod to Betts in RF and not by a small amount, which is what this is about IMO.
Gotcha. I just think that the talent difference between Judge and Betts is much closer than the current numbers indicate, and much closer than Bradley/Stanton.
 

nvalvo

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I don't see why y'all are so intimidated by Happ. Has he had some good starts against Boston? Sure. He's a fine starter. He's also gotten roughed up a few times.

Part of his apparent success against Boston is because — after an E4 — he gave up a single, an RBI groundout, a wild pitch, a walk, and a noted Mookie Betts grand slam. And he has another URA So that means he has a 1.99 ERA in four starts against Boston this season, but a 4.37 R/9. Now, it's a truism that if you give a big league offense an extra out, they'll make you pay — that's the case for all pitchers. But Happ really fell apart in that inning against the bottom of the Sox order, and then Betts cashed it in.

All I'm trying to say is that NY faced Sale three times, including in September. He pitched 16 IP in those starts, allowing a single run (a Judge solo shot) and a dozen baserunners against 20 strikeouts. But Happ is scary?
 

Time to Mo Vaughn

RIP Dernell
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Gotcha. I just think that the talent difference between Judge and Betts is much closer than the current numbers indicate, and much closer than Bradley/Stanton.
Mookie just had the only season since the strike to break up Bonds 2001 - 2004 as the highest single season WAR.

Fangraphs WAR from 1994-2018

Judge's season last year is 50th. He's a fantastic player, but Betts just had a historic season.
 

BornToRun

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I don’t see the Sox having much of an advantage, other than playing at home to start. With Sale still a ? and Price’s ineptitude against the MFY, we don’t have an edge with SP nor with our bullpen. And sorry, but the MFY’s lineup is better. Judge or Stanton lay an egg? Who cares when they have Andujar, Torres, and Luke Fucking Voit to pick up the slack?

I hope I’m wrong but I feel less confident about this team than 03, 04, 07, or 13.
Please. Give me our lineup any day of the week. Betts and JD are a better combo than Judge/Stanton and we have X and Beni as well.

I think Sale will be fine and I’m not worried about Kimbrel closing out games.

This series is going to hinge on Barnes, Brasier, and Wright out of the pen as well as Price in the rotation. I’m putting my complete faith in Price to get the job done when he takes the mound for game 2. If Sale can do his thing then I’m gonna guess we’ll be in good shape.

Bring these fuckers on.
 

jon abbey

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All I'm trying to say is that NY faced Sale three times, including in September. He pitched 16 IP in those starts, allowing a single run (a Judge solo shot) and a dozen baserunners against 20 strikeouts. But Happ is scary?
The September one was against the Mets, not the Yankees. Sale dominated NY on June 30 (6 of the 9 hitters he'll face tomorrow) and pitched well against them in early April (5 of the 9 hitters he'll face tomorrow), they haven't seen each other since the June 30 game.
 

KillerBs

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Nov 16, 2006
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So much of this is about Sale and Price on Friday and Saturday. If they pitch well into or thru the 7th, in games 1 and 2, I like our chances.

Quick check on Sale's brooksbaseball page -- showing him as being very good while sitting at 93/94 in 2012 and 2016 -- gives me hope. Oddly, it seems he has never thrown harder than he did this summer. Chris Sale doesnt need 98 to be great. He does need to be healthy.

I think we will score at home against Happ and Tanaka.

Obviously I do not like our chances in an extended bullpen battle especially if we have to come from behind. I am feeling cautiously optimistic about the ability of Wright, Brasier, Barnes, Kimbrell to close out a lead in the last 2-3 innings. Ideally Edro and Wright are available for early and extended duty if needed in Game 3 and/or 4 (if nec'y) and we steal one in that stupid Yankee band box.
 

SirPsychoSquints

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In response to Baseball Jones' above: Betts over Judge and JD over Stanton are not "close calls." Not to suggest these Yanks aren't good players but Red Sox counterparts are/have been a couple orders of magnitude better.

If you looking for the answer of how a team with our Catchers, 2b and 3b could win a 108 games, it really starts and ends with historically great seasons by Mookie and JD who have been (this year at least) 2 of the 3 or 4 best hitters in the game. Bogaerts-Didi is closer but esp vs the 2 or 3 LHP we will thro at Didi, have a marked advantage there too I think.

But no doubt we are the 108 win plucky underdogs here. Game 1 so huge.
Yep, wOBA leaders:
  1. Mookie .449
  2. Trout .447
  3. JD .427
  4. Yellich .422
  5. Bregman .396
Luke Voit's not qualified, but he's at .447 in 161 PA.
 

Al Zarilla

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Hopefully the teevee will show Mookie's 13-pitch GS off Happ (two players who are actually.....playing) more than they show Boone's HR of Wakefield.
Maybe but, you know, the slam was against Toronto Happ.

Boone’s HR only resulted in Josh F’ing Beckett slapping his whaddayacallit in their face.
 

JimD

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In a five-game series between two good teams that are so evenly matched, I would not be surprised at any outcome. The health of Sale is such an X-factor.

If this goes 5 games, I don't see this as being one of those series where the home team wins every game - I could easily see both teams winning a game in the other team's park. I also don't see the futility from the last two postseasons having any carryover effect - this team seems mentally tough from the manager on down.
 

j44thor

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Thinking Eovaldi could be our X factor in this one.

He is likely the first guy up in game 1 and the game 4 starter.
If he continues to do what he has done against NY this year (excluding his TB outing) that sets us up well.
If he pitches like he did against just about any other team we are in serious trouble.
 

jon abbey

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Thinking Eovaldi could be our X factor in this one.

He is likely the first guy up in game 1 and the game 4 starter.
If he continues to do what he has done against NY this year (excluding his TB outing) that sets us up well.
If he pitches like he did against just about any other team we are in serious trouble.
Steven Wright too, NY has had a lot of trouble with him.
 

brandonchristensen

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Just loaded up my Game 4 2004 ALCS DVD.

Derek Lowe's movement is unbelievable.

EDIT
Are the game threads from 2004 gone? The archives on this site is empty :( I'd love to read them again.
 
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nvalvo

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The September one was against the Mets, not the Yankees. Sale dominated NY on June 30 (6 of the 9 hitters he'll face tomorrow) and pitched well against them in early April (5 of the 9 hitters he'll face tomorrow), they haven't seen each other since the June 30 game.
Ah, this is what I get for posting quickly.
 

KillerBs

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Nov 16, 2006
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Ideally, we can stay away from Wright enough in Games 1 and 2 so he is good for a 5-6 IP relief appearance, if needed, in Games 3 or 4. Tho I suppose a similar quick hook of Price in game 2 isn't out of the question.
 

joe dokes

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Mark Bellhorn and Curtis Leskanic would be fun. They haven't been around the club for awhile.
Funny you mention them. There's a pretty good chance that many of the things that end up being important will not be on anyone's pre-series list of things that will be important.
 

KillerBs

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Nov 16, 2006
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Fangraphs has us as decided underdogs vs Yanks with the lowest odds in the AL of getting to and winning the WS. The Indians 91 wins out of the AL central impress them more.

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

I mean we are lucky to be in the same field as such Gods as the Yanks.

Triple slash line August/Sept: Bos 270/347/451 Yanks 236/322/440.

Bbref bullpen Wins Above Average: Red Sox 3.8 (2nd AL) Yanks 2.3 (4th).

We are rooting for an under-rated 108 win team.
 

SemperFidelisSox

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Fangraphs has us as decided underdogs vs Yanks with the lowest odds in the AL of getting to and winning the WS. The Indians 91 wins out of the AL central impress them more.

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

I mean we are lucky to be in the same field as such Gods as the Yanks.

Triple slash line August/Sept: Bos 270/347/451 Yanks 236/322/440.

Bbref bullpen Wins Above Average: Red Sox 3.8 (2nd AL) Yanks 2.3 (4th).

We are rooting for an under-rated 108 win team.
Fangraphs at least showed their work. Based on WAR, the Yankees are the 108 win team.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/rating-all-the-playoff-teams-2/
 

Doctor G

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Colorado just pitched to Yelich.I hope the Red Sox dont pitch to Judge.Take Judge iout of their lineup.Make Stanton beat you
 

RIrooter09

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Jul 31, 2008
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Colorado just pitched to Yelich.I hope the Red Sox dont pitch to Judge.Take Judge iout of their lineup.Make Stanton beat you
Putting baserunners on with the strength of that lineup top to bottom seems like a poor strategy.