Rafaela isn’t even the most exciting base runner on this team. I’m excited about him, but Duran is a total agent of chaos, as we saw in the top in the 9th when he both earned and cost Casas his at bat.
Agents of KAOS: Rafaela, Duran, O'Neill, Romy, & Blizzard
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I was hoping Duran was going to steal home in the top of the ninth with Casas at the plate. Duran was ⅔ of the way down the line before the pitch was even thrown.
Agent of chaos is certainly a good term for Duran. I just wish he had better baseball instincts. He's a great athlete without a doubt. He can perform the skills needed to play the game. He's not much of a ball player though.
He absolutely should have stolen home. I don't think he was even thinking about it though, despite how far down the line he got. He was too focused on distracting the pitcher and wound up distracting his teammate instead. Fortunately the run he represented wasn't crucial.
He absolutely should have stolen home. I don't think he was even thinking about it though, despite how far down the line he got. He was too focused on distracting the pitcher and wound up distracting his teammate instead. Fortunately the run he represented wasn't crucial.
Broke this out of last night's game thread. These guys should be a bit disruptive on the bases and thought it would be a good idea to have a thread dedicated to talk about them.
Analytics love the Mariners, lots of people picking them to be in the ALCS etc., but the contrast could not be more stark. One team on the field last night looked like a 1970s softball-style team, and the other one looked like a team that reflects where this game is actually going. Don't get me wrong, the Mariners have some good athletes and will have a fine season, but in every sport the incoming talent and athleticism is reaching incredible new levels, and baseball is no exception. The Sox' roster looks more like the future of baseball.
The problem with Duran potentially stealing home, is that you can't do it with 2 outs and 2 strikes on the batter. The batter has no choice but to take a pitch, and if it's a strike, the inning is over and run doesn't count. If he was going to do it, he should have done it on a previous pitch.
Ha. I was just going to start a Duran thread.
But I like this one better. Story and Wong can also impact the game with speed.
MLB.TV is a godsend for these late night games - I was asleep when this all happened. Reviewing it today though, it's important to note a few things in relation to speed impacting the game in that inning.
1) Duran's speed might have prevented a double play when he was at bat. Fielder's choice resulted.
2) Voth starts pitching out of the stretch and throws over to first during the subsequent Devers' AB. Devers flies out.
3) Story comes up. Duran steals second on a 2-2 count. On 3-2 Duran breaks toward third on a Story IF hit to the third baseman, who hesitates as Duran comes to a stop before him. That hesitation allows Story to have a photo-finish IF single on the throw.
4) Casas comes up. Voth is still pitching out of the stretch and throws over to first. On 2-1 Story steals 2B - the catcher drops the ball but not far, so Duran won't be coming home. That, BTW, is, IMO, excellent baseball by Story. If he's confident he can steal and draw a throw, maybe Duran zips home if its mishandled.
On the next pitch we first hear about Duran being way down the line. The TV shots look like he's just placing himself relative to where the 3B is (quasi-shift). Which moves him down the line pretty far way, given that the 3B is closer to 2B.
Youk complains about how that would make him feel as a hitter, but I think this also puts a lot of pressure on the pitcher. Duran goes back to the bag after a pitch and the announcers speculate the dugout said to get down the line but not be too distracting. Which he does, with a couple bounces as the pitch is delivered.
So with two strikes, I really don't know how much of that is on Casas to just ignore him and swing regardless, and how much is on Duran for taking a reasonable lead in the circumstances (which was a huge lead.)
Overall though, I'd never rely on a DOB description of anything. Including "dancing."
Just clicking around in Savant...
Story is a tic faster than either Rafaela and O'Neill if Statcast is to be believed, and Wong is just two tics below O'Neill. (Tics are a unit of footspeed I just made up that is equivalent to a tenth of a foot/second.) Valdez and Wilyer are a shade below average, and Grissom is basically exactly league average.
Last year, we ranked 26th in foot speed as a roster. We should be much faster this year, but I imagine the whole league is moving in that direction, so it will be interesting to see where we land.
I have a recollection that Julio Lugo tried to do that. But it might be the Mandela Effect, or an artifact of habitually blaming Lugo.
Story's always had speed that practically translated into SBs - he was a threat to be in the 20-25 SB range every year in Colorado. He didn't amass those totals in each of his Boston injury seasons, but he kept up the same SB rate (or close enough to it.) Now, with the large bases, the pitch clock and the limited throw-overs. . .maybe he keeps that same practical speed into his early 30s?
Is there a coach on the team devoted to baserunning? I thought this was one of Febles' roles, but he's no longer with the team. If speed is going to be more of a weapon going forward, it'd be interesting to know if there's a mindset being imparted as there seems to be with pitching.
The Athletic had an article about how Kyle Hudson (now 3B coach) helped Duran with his baserunning.
https://theathletic.com/5317736/2024/03/19/red-sox-jarren-duran-breakout-kyle-hudson?source=user-shared-article
https://theathletic.com/5317736/2024/03/19/red-sox-jarren-duran-breakout-kyle-hudson?source=user-shared-article
The wonderful thing about baseball is that what you've said is obviously true, and was clear to me about 10 seconds after the play had ended...but I've been following baseball religiously for 40 years and had never seen or thought about this situation before, even though it's a play that could theoretically happen almost every game (i.e., man at third with two outs, two strikes on a hitter).
We once saw a ball hit the outfield wall and take a left for the first time since the invention of balls. Then we saw it again about a week later. With overwhelming evidence like that, I'm confident that one of these fuckers is going to steal home on this road trip.
Probably against the As.
I remember being at a game around 1990 when I was @ Northeastern. Night game, Clemens against Dave Stewart when the A’s were dominant. The lights malfunctioned in the middle innings, so there was a few minute delay. Later in the game, the Sox had an injury in their DH spot, so Roger ended up having an at bat, and lo and behold hit a seeing eye single up the middle. Crowd went crazy in both instances. You never know what you’ll see in baseball.
I was there. Pretty sure it was a weekend afternoon. Lotta people left so the wifey and I found some seats real near the Sox on deck circle. I was really hoping Clemens would get the CG and once they lost the DH I thought it was damn near impossible. When he came to the on deck circle, I thought to myself, "Who the fuck is...wait...holy shit."
Fun fact, also Jose Malave's major league debut.
Fake Edit--Thursday, 6 PM start. Thanks brain.
Real Edit-- The box score https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BOS/BOS199605230.shtml
Are you kidding? I remember Steve Rodriguez' career. The major league portion was...short.
Even shorter than Steve, and that's saying something. I towered over him, and I was 5'10".
Batting consecutively from the 9 spot to the 2, our flash mob of C-Note, Angry Lizard, and The Blizzard had 16 total bases tonight. 7 hits, 2 walks, 7 steals. Do these players individually have flaws? Sure. Will any of these guys play major roles on the Next Great Red Sox Team? No idea. But I'd like to use this thread to celebrate the exploits of these dynamic characters. They are a sweet part of why this baseball team is exciting again.
What, no update for the 7 for 12 performance, plus 2 walks, 5 runs, and 7 stolen bases from the Chaos crimson hose? Treviño is seeing them running amok in his nightmares.
I'm just loving watching Ceddanne's plate discipline improve exponentially. I've always been very high on this kid and I'm hoping he continues.
Duran has really impressed since his mental error in July, 2022 vs Toronto. Coming to terms with his mental health issues, I'm sure, has helped him greatly and I'm also looking for great things from him.
David Hamilton? Really didn't have any expectations from him, but man is he tearing things up lately.
This is EXACTLY what I wanted to see from the Sox if they weren't going to go after any big FA's in the offseason. Let's see what we've got with the kids and, so far, they're overachieving, imho. 4-2 vs PHI and NYY was NOT what I was expecting this past week after dropping 2 of 4 to the White Sox. Honestly, I was hoping for 2-4 and anything better would've been gravy. Bello figuring some things out and a healthy Casas being added back to this lineup and we become an even more fun team to watch.
Duran has really impressed since his mental error in July, 2022 vs Toronto. Coming to terms with his mental health issues, I'm sure, has helped him greatly and I'm also looking for great things from him.
David Hamilton? Really didn't have any expectations from him, but man is he tearing things up lately.
This is EXACTLY what I wanted to see from the Sox if they weren't going to go after any big FA's in the offseason. Let's see what we've got with the kids and, so far, they're overachieving, imho. 4-2 vs PHI and NYY was NOT what I was expecting this past week after dropping 2 of 4 to the White Sox. Honestly, I was hoping for 2-4 and anything better would've been gravy. Bello figuring some things out and a healthy Casas being added back to this lineup and we become an even more fun team to watch.
I love hamilton leading off innings. You just knew it bugged the shit out of the Yankees knowing he was scoring and there was nothing they could do about it.
They're really running the basepaths like Little Leaguers. If you have Duran or Hamilton at 3B with a guy at 1B you almost have to expect them to try to take home with a throw down to 2B - by default.
Bill James wrote, in the 80s, that while he hated turf for aesthetic reasons, he loved it for what it did for the game as it encouraged athletic, running baseball.
I never thought in my lifetime I'd see a Sox team steal 9 bases in a game.
1983 Sox stole 30 over the whole season!. Excluding 2020, that's not even in the "top" 10.
Which Team Has The Least Stolen Bases In A Season In The Modern Era Of Baseball | StatMuse
This is where I'm at too. I think this past week has shown that the team has the capability to be a threat in the playoffs. Will they make it? I have no idea. I wasn't expecting a playoff run out of this season though, and I'm OK with that. This team is incredibly fun to watch. Ceddanne has really made some strides, Hamilton is overperforming and Jarren Duran is seriously proving his doubters wrong. They won't all three be clicking like this at once forever, but if even 1-2 of them are in front of Devers/Casas/O'Neill then this offense has some serious legs (intended).
The errors are still very frustrating, but when it feels like any ball in play could be a double or triple that's exciting baseball.
David Hamilton having a 1.2 WAR this year despite being a pretty bad shortstop is a good indicator of how his speed really helps both his own game and the team.
The front office clearly made an effort this past offseason to make the team younger and more athletic, and it's paying off. There's a lot of flawed players still but there's definitely more speed and athleticism all over the roster.
This might be the overall fastest Red Sox team in over 100 years.
Many times the team has had one really fast base stealer like Ellsbury, Damon, Remy, etc., but not many others. They've also had some guys who were smart runners who could steal bases while not being particularly fast, like Pedroia. But most Sox teams have had not-fast guys even at positions like outfield and middle infield, and plenty of big slow-footed guys everywhere.
This team has super-fast Duran, Hamilton and Rafaela, plus Wong, who is fast for a catcher, O'Neill is a fast runner when healthy, Abreu is 7 for 8 in steals despite not being fast for a RF. If Story wasn't out for the season, he would be another really fast runner in the mix.
There's still a few slow guys, but overall this group has to be one of the fastest Red Sox teams since the dead ball era.
This might be the overall fastest Red Sox team in over 100 years.
Many times the team has had one really fast base stealer like Ellsbury, Damon, Remy, etc., but not many others. They've also had some guys who were smart runners who could steal bases while not being particularly fast, like Pedroia. But most Sox teams have had not-fast guys even at positions like outfield and middle infield, and plenty of big slow-footed guys everywhere.
This team has super-fast Duran, Hamilton and Rafaela, plus Wong, who is fast for a catcher, O'Neill is a fast runner when healthy, Abreu is 7 for 8 in steals despite not being fast for a RF. If Story wasn't out for the season, he would be another really fast runner in the mix.
There's still a few slow guys, but overall this group has to be one of the fastest Red Sox teams since the dead ball era.
Would like to have a discussion about what exactly people mean by this, and what teams don't have players with flaws. I can think of very few players that are flawless- maybe Judge and Ohtani. Even Betts has been just okay on defense this season- at SS of course. But what teams don't have guys that hit .300, have a .400 OBP or more and SLG around .500 or more, are also pluses defensively and on the basepaths. Teams are lucky as hell if they have just one of those on their teams.
I've said this before, but it's clearly balance, right? Not sure, but I'm guessing that the flaws (lack of... whatever... ) that one player has can't be shared by too many others. When the injuries were overwhelming- unfortunately against the weakest teams out there- the "flaws" were exposed.
Abreu isn't allowed to hit against LHP so needs a platoon mate who does... but struggles against RHP. That's covering each other's flaws. A deep bench that can at least not suck if there's too many injuries? The Sox have almost covered that.....but not completely (despite D. Smith looking better recently) after Casas injury.
I'm just not sure what people are expecting out of a team. Flawed players abound.
155 (on pace for) Steals would be the most for a Sox team since 1914, when the Sox stole 177 and werecaught 176 times. 202 Steal Attempts would be the most since...1915, when the Sox stole 118 and were caught 117 times.
They've often had a pair of good legs, but batting back-to-back is the tricky part.
Pairs with 20+ steals in a season:
Betts/Benintendi 2017 and 18.
Jacoby (52) and Victorino in 2013.
Jacoby/Pedrioa in 2011 and 2009. (J with 70 in 2009.)
Lugo/Crisp in 2007.
3 guys with 20+ steals:
Jacoby/Pedroia/Crisp in 2008.
Indeed.
https://stathead.com/tiny/fu16q
The 1909-12 teams each had 4 guys with 20+ steals (Speaker*4, Hooper*3, Heinie Wagner *2, Larry Gardner*2, 5 others once each). Other teams in that timeframe had 3 each, then there's the 2008 Sox you mentioned.
Coco/Jacoby/Pedroia did bat 9/1/2 18 times that year by my count (including a couple times Coco led off and Jacoby batted 9th).
Nice.
I'd also be curious as to the inverse of this concept - a great basestealer blocked in by piano-carriers. Probably too sophisticated to parse, because how would you look for it? I mean, just the fact that Elsbury stole 70 and Otis Nixon stole 50+ means they had bases cleared for them to go.
Yeah, I don't know what I'd be looking for exactly. Top basestealers in Sox history:
2009 Jacoby 70 - Mostly led off, occasionally batted 2/5/7. Batting 8th was a lot of Varitek and other slow guys, 9th was speedy Green/Gonzalez/Lugo, 2nd was mostly Pedroia, 3rd was JDM/Youk/Ortiz.
1973 Tommy Harper 54 - Mostly led off, occasionally batted 6/7/8. 8th was mostly 26 y/o 2B Doug Griffin, 9th was mostly 21 year old Dewey, 2nd was Aparicio, 3rd was 33 y/o 1Bman Yaz and 38 y/o CF Reggie Smith.
2013 Jacoby 52 - exclusively led off. 8th was JD Drew and others, 9th was Iglesias and others, 2nd was mostly Victorino, 3rd was mostly Pedroia.
1912 Speaker 52 - we've already gone over this very steal-happy team.
2008 Ellsbury 50 - we've already talked about Coco/Jacoby/Pedroia 9/1/2.
Maybe 2003 Damon? Stole 30 bags (caught 6), led off almost exclusively, Varitek the most common #9, Mueller the most common #8 (followed by Jeremy Giambi), 30 year-old Todd Walker mostly #2, gimpy Nomar mostly #3?
Loving this thread! Duran with 10 triples has a shot at the most triples since Curtis Granderson had 23 in 2007. Granderson’s 23 was the most since Alan Comorosky also had 23 in 1930. League record is 36 set by Owen Wilson in 1912.
If I recall correctly @InsideTheParker described Duran stretching a single into a double as similar to seeing her dog desperately fetch a ball. I had a cowdog that chased down balls like that and loved ITP’s description of Duran.
If I recall correctly @InsideTheParker described Duran stretching a single into a double as similar to seeing her dog desperately fetch a ball. I had a cowdog that chased down balls like that and loved ITP’s description of Duran.
I meant that we have a lot of players who have flaws along with their strengths. Like Rafaela is a great CF and a really fast runner, but he hasn't hit much or walked much yet. Hamilton is fast and is starting to hit, but isn't a good defensive SS and seems to have a weak arm.
I felt like I should acknowledge that while our players are more athletic, I'm not saying they are supermen or all great at baseball. They're not.
I didn't say anything about other teams having flawless players, or that none of our players is allowed to have flaws or anything like that, so I don't know where you got the idea that's what i meant. What's the reason for jumping all over a statement of fact like that?
Buckner started his career as a plurality CF, and stole 31 bases in 1974 and 28 in 1976.
And then, some slow old guys know how to pick their spots. From ages 36-41, Pujols stole 13 bases without getting caught once.
I didn't mean to come off as if I was "jumping all over a statement" like that, and didn't say or mean to imply that you weren't saying other teams don't have flawed players. It's just a term that gets tossed around, and I use it.... but it's something that is a very ambiguous term. As in, like I said, maybe Judge and/or Ohtani are the only "flawless" players, so was just wondering what or how, teams deal with players flaws. The example I used was covering a player's "flaw" by utilizing a different player's strengths- Abreu's flaw is covered by Refsnyder or O'Neill. Good teams will be able to do that. Bad teams can't or didn't figure out how to. That's all I was really asking. Not meant as an attack at all
Given how we like to react to outs made on the basepaths now, I can't even imagine watching a team with 250-350 attempts at a 50% success rate. It would be absolutely fantastic for TV and window sales throughout New England, though.
The entire AL in 1914 stole 1,657 bases and were caught 1,370 times, a 54.7% success rate.
Tris Speaker led the Sox with 42 steals, but he only had 29 caught stealing to Duffy Lewis's 31 (he stole 22 successfully).
Relatively quiet night for two of our trio of terror, and not a steal among the three, but C-Note had himself a night: a single, a HR, and yet another walk, for 6 more total bases. Tonight Cora moved The Blizzard to the 8-spot where he split at bats with the ascendant Manu, who drew a walk.