The Chiefs are guaranteed to have something to play for. Even if they’re eliminated from the 1-seed this week with an unspeakable home loss to Denver + Bills win in Cincy, they’ll still have to win Week 18 to hold the Bengals off for the 2. There’s zero chance they rest people.
Haha wow.
But those could be early games, no? I have no idea how the schedule is settled, I'm just imagining Pats/Bills and Bal/Cin @ 1 and KC/LV @ 4. I'm not expecting them to rest anyone, just one team having more to play for.
I’m pretty sure they’re going to put every team competing for the same thing at the same time if at all possible. If the Raiders are still alive, I can’t see how they’re going to let the Chiefs be in a spot to rest people. Plus, if the Ravens beat the Steelers Sunday then next week is a division title game regardless of what the Bengals do Monday so it’ll definitely be at 430 or 8.
I think Bengals/Ravens has a good shot at being the SNF game week 18 if it's for the AFC North. Cincy doesn't benefit a from knowing the outcome of the Chiefs and Bills games because they'd still have to beat the Ravens to win the division and finish 1, 2 or 3 and on the flip side the Bills and Chiefs will need to try to win because they won't know the outcome of the Cincy game. I think Bills/Pats and Chiefs/Raiders is a lock to be played at 4:25pm unless something crazy happens this weekend.
Yeah, I generally agree. Jags-Titans is most likely a winner take all but they're two awful markets with zero starpower aside from maybe Lawrence's ascent (does anyone turn the game on to watch Henry?). That being said, they have to set the schedule by Monday afternoon before Bills-Bengals so if the Ravens lose Sunday and the Bengals can clinch Monday night, I don't think they're going to risk potentially putting the Ravens on SNF without a ton to play for - they'd still have to win to have a chance at the 5 seed and play the AFCS winner, but that doesn't really make a SNF storyline. The Bengals will be playing Week 18 regardless to either win the division and/or hold the 1-2 seed.
That's probably the best bet. In order for it to happen though, it looks like they'd both need to win this week and have Washington and Seattle lose.
If all things were equal, I agree. But the context is pretty favorable for the Pats. Of course they’d get slaughtered again in the first round so who really cares, but I think the playoffs motivates NFL players in particular given how many risks they take with their bodies every game.
If you don't mind me asking, what in the context of the last game is favorable for the Pats? It's likely that Buffalo will need to win that game to clinch the #1 seed and a bye in the first round of the playoffs. They will play everyone, and they will absolutely play hard to win. It will likely mean everything to them. And they're at home (the Bills, that is).
If you believe the Patriots are going to make the playoffs it’s a leap of faith not grounded in any evidence. Put it in the bucket of anything can happen. That’s the only argument.
Was just looking at the long term forecast in Buff and it doesn’t look like it’s getting above 8 degrees with wind, weather, etc. for a while. So basically just that variable. I agree they have looked pathetic against them recently.
Someone out there has checked the numbers--do teams out of the playoffs in last week or 2 of season have a winning percentage substantially different from the rest of the season?
Not with Tua out. (and honestly, I've had the Miami game marked as a win all season with Tua. I'll believe they can play up here in January when they accomplish it). The Pats are currently favored by 2.5 points (-140 money line).
Weather channel's long term Buffalo forecast for last weekend of the regular season. The Pats are likely not getting a weather assist.
In 2019, the Dolphins beat the Pats in Foxboro on Dec 29, 27-24, FWIW. That was the game Fitzpatrick drove the Dolphins 75 yards in just under 3 minutes and hit Gesicki for the game-winning TD with just 24 seconds left. Temps were in the low to mid 40s that day.
Yeah, I've just blocked 2019 from my brain entirely. They'll probable get lucky again with the weather this year too, assuming the rain clears out in time. Wind should be a factor, at 15-25mph, and Teddy has always been better indoors than outdoors.
MAC JONES HAS NEVER PLAYED AN NFL GAME WHERE HIS TEAM WAS OUT OF PLAYOFF CONTENTION!!!
As long as the Jets beat Seattle this week, Miami/Jets will be a play in game for the final WC spot. Unless the Patriots win both games. That might be a good candidate for SNF.
Depends on what happens this week. As mentioned the Jags still have a shot of at least the WC if enough things happen. But yes Titans/Jags will be for the AFC South.
I don't think these teams will play for a tie. It is very hard to do so in the NFL.
Indeed, that was the hyperlinked reference in my post, and actually the inspiration for me to invest some energy in the NFL Playoff Machine. Thanks for having responded (I post rarely and always with some trepidation)!
That's fair. IIRC the Jags can only be #4 or #7, and #7 is likely playing either Buffalo or KC.. which doesn't sound very favorable.
Just to expand on your point about a scenario in which a tie gets both the Jags and the Titans into the playoffs, here is a version (may or may not be the only one) that reaches such a conclusion. In Week 17: Titans over Cowboys, Jags over Texans, Patriots over Dolphins, Steelers over Ravens, Seahawks over Jets, Raiders over 49'ers. In Week 18: Bills over Patriots, Jets over Dolphins, Chiefs over Raiders. Rolling forward to the imagined SNF game: If the Titans win, they get the 4 slot and the Jags get the 7 slot. If the Jags win, they get the 4 slot and the Patriots get the 7 slot ( I pause to tip my cap to Baseball Jones Post #139 and Rudy's Curve Post 143, as I've replicated their original works). If the Jags and Titans tie, the Jags get the 4 slot and the Titans get the 7 slot.
Not happening, my friend. They'll either be tied or a gb, needing a win for the 1 seed.
Won’t be, but if the Jets lose today and beat Miami next week, Pats are in no matter what. I think.
Would be awesome if Brady and BB both got into the playoffs with losing records and met in the SB. Never happen, of course, but crazy that it's at least possible.
If they lose to Buffalo, I think they need Pittsburgh to lose one of their final two games and Jacksonville to beat Tennessee, too.
The 2 is still really important though and they'd only need a win and a Bengals loss to Baltimore. I can't see the Bills sitting.
Yeah, they need Pit to lose and Jags to win their division.
If that happens, I will officially be convinced we are living in a simulation. I'm at about 46% now and that would take me to 100%.
