AFC and NFC Championship game thread

Ferm Sheller

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AFC Championship Game Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs Arrowhead Stadium Kansas City, MO 3:05pm ET CBS Buy Tickets
NFC Championship Game San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams SoFi Stadium Inglewood, CA 6:40pm ET FOX Buy Tickets



Feels like we'll be getting an LA-KC Super Bowl, but that's why they play the games...
 

BigSoxFan

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Already pumped and jacked for next week. SF has beaten LA 6 straight times. Kind of poetic that LA gave this team life and now has to figure out a way to beat them. I expect them to finally get the job done but SF could easily win this.

KC vs. Bengals features probably the 2 most exciting offenses in the AFC and 2 of the best young QBs. Passing games should both be on tilt in this one.

Predictions:

Rams 27
Niners 23

Chiefs 34
Bengals 27
 

DeadlySplitter

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I believe this is the first time a 3 seed or lower is hosting a conference championship since 2008-09. That was also a 6 vs 4 seed matchup. (PHI-ARI)

It's also remarkable to me both 4 seeds have made it this far. Often the 4 seed has been the winner of a weak division that gets crushed by a strong WC team, but with Dallas sneaking into the 3, not the case at all this year.
 

Rudy's Curve

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I wanted the Bills for psychological factors, as I think the Bengals used a huge bullet against the Chiefs a couple weeks ago having to come back and KC has the revenge game angle. The Bills would also be coming off an enormous road win having beat the Chiefs in a revenge playoff game and have all the pressure on them at home for a team that hadn't been to the SB yet, but that's all moot now. If this is what the Chiefs defense looks like without Mathieu, the Bengals will certainly be able to move the ball if he's out provided they can protect at all, which is certainly not a guarantee. Jones destroyed them a couple weeks ago in Cincinnati, and now he and the edge guys will have the crowd noise advantage. I just don't know how they can shut Mahomes down for a half again, especially at Arrowhead and with Edwards-Helaire finally looking like how he did at LSU (he didn't play in the first meeting). Hopefully the Chiefs will be mentally drained (I'd certainly give that credence if this was a regular season game) and the extra day of rest helps the Bengals.
 

dirtynine

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Have to imagine Burrow just watched KC-BUF thinking about how he should be in that QB conversation. Not that he needs more motivation.
 

BigSoxFan

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Yep. Chiefs are a slightly better team and the Bengals are a year early, but either you can cover Chase or you can’t. He’s capable of swinging the outcome, he’s that special.
Chiefs did hold Chase under 300 yards in the last game so they should be ok here
 

Devizier

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I’m pulling hard for Cincinnati, but it feels like a Chiefs romp to me. I’m somewhat agnostic on the NFC, which actually makes that game more compelling from my perspective.
 

Ralphwiggum

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The Bills should have delivered the kill shot to the Chiefs last night but failed to finish the job. I don't think they are losing again this post-season, but I hope I am wrong.

9ers - Bengals is the matchup I am hoping for because (a) the Jimmy G situation is interesting, and the 9ers were my 2nd team back in the 80s when the Pats sucked, and (b) Bengals fans are long suffering, and they are one of the few AFC teams that the Pats don't really have a history with. But I think we are getting Chiefs - Rams which honestly I am not looking forward to based on the Mahomes and McVeigh hype that will precede that game.
 

Caspir

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I would just love to see Cincy win a Super Bowl. There is no logical reason not to like them if you're a Pats fan. No real history or rivalry, they've never even been relevant (for the most part) during the Patriot's run. Burrow to Chase is a great young combo. I really hope they pull it out, but my heart says KC rolls them, then we get a KC/LA Super Bowl.
 

BaseballJones

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Regular season matchups between these teams in the conference championships....

AFC
1/2/2022 - at KC
Cin 34, KC 31

- Burrow: 30-39 (76.9%), 446 yds, 11.4 y/a, 4 td, 0 int, 148.0 rating
- Chase: 11 rec, 266 yds, 24.2 ypc, 3 td
- Mahomes: 26-35 (74.3%), 259 yds, 7.4 y/a, 2 td, 0 int
- KC with 155 rush yds on 23 att
- Total yds: Cin 475, KC 414
- McPherson kicks a game-winning FG with no time left for the win (that crazy end-game sequence)


NFC
11/15/2021 - at SF
SF 31, LA 10

- Garoppolo: 15-19 (78.9%), 182 yds, 9.6 y/a, 2 td, 0 int
- Mitchell: 27 rushes, 91 yds
- Samuel: 5 rushes, 36 yds, 1 td, 5 rec, 97 yds, 1 td
- Stafford: 26-41 (63.4), 243 yds, 1 td, 2 int
- Kupp: 11 rec, 122 yds, 11.1 ypc


1/9/2022 - at LA
SF 27, LA 24 OT

- Garoppolo: 23-32 (71.9%), 316 yds, 9.9 y/a, 1 td, 2 int
- Mitchell: 21 rushes, 85 yds
- Samuel: 8 rushes, 45 yds, 1 td, 4 rec, 95 yds, 23.8 ypc, also threw a 24 yard TD pass
- Aiyuk/Jennings: 12 rec, 201 yds, 16.8 ypc
- Stafford: 21-32 (65.6%), 238 yds, 3 td, 2 int
- Kupp: 7 rec, 118 yds, 16.9 ypc, 1 td
- Rams took a 24-17 lead with 2:29 left in the game but the Niners came right down and tied the game on a TD pass with 26 seconds left. Then Gould kicked the game winner in OT.


Long story short: Next weekend could be epic.
 

Monbonthbump

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A game for the ages last night. I don't usually comment in this forum but, having followed the Chiefs since the days of Len Dawson, Buck Buchanan, et. al., I had to add my accolades to the performance by both teams last night. And I am decidedly apprehensive about the outcome next week. Burrow actually wanted to transfer to Nebraska when he ended up at LSU and was told by Coach Frost that Taylor Martinez was already Nebraska's quarterback of the future. Didn't quite work out that way.
 

Ferm Sheller

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I would just love to see Cincy win a Super Bowl. There is no logical reason not to like them if you're a Pats fan. No real history or rivalry, they've never even been relevant (for the most part) during the Patriot's run. Burrow to Chase is a great young combo. I really hope they pull it out, but my heart says KC rolls them, then we get a KC/LA Super Bowl.
This is absolutely right. I've been watching the Pats since the late 70s and there's never been any bad blood whatsoever between the two teams. No reason at all to dislike Cincy. They've had a few clowns -- Burfict, Collinsworth, and Pacman come to mind -- but what team hasn't?
 

loshjott

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Collinsworth may be a bad analyst, but was he a clown as a player? I don't remember that aspect.

Anyway, I'm all in for Cincy, but I fear KC will drop a 50 burger next week.
 

Ferm Sheller

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Collinsworth may be a bad analyst, but was he a clown as a player? I don't remember that aspect.

Anyway, I'm all in for Cincy, but I fear KC will drop a 50 burger next week.
I always found him to be a bit arrogant and cocky on and off the field. Not the biggest jerk ever, but he was a bit of a smug tool.
 

Toe Nash

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KC is going to roll Cincy. 35-21 and it won't be that close. Burrow can't scramble much and their offensive line can't block; they are good offensively but easier to defend than Allen.

SF-LA should be close but Jimmy's ducks worry me; there were at least two throws last week that should have been pick-6s.
 

Rudy's Curve

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Regular season matchups between these teams in the conference championships....

AFC
1/2/2022 - at KC
Cin 34, KC 31
This was in Cincinnati. The Bengals also benefitted greatly from Hill dropping a 60-yard bomb at the end of the half (it was broken up, but should've been caught ala Lee Evans). They also got away with multiple false starts on the final drive and the Chiefs were called for a very questionable personal foul on the drive early in the fourth that gave the Bengals the lead. It just feels like they used up all their bullets against them coming back and going to Arrowhead for an encore is an extremely tall task. But hey, it's total house money and Burrow can do almost anything with these weapons provided he has enough time, which is certainly easier said than done.
 

tims4wins

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KC is going to roll Cincy. 35-21 and it won't be that close. Burrow can't scramble much and their offensive line can't block; they are good offensively but easier to defend than Allen.

SF-LA should be close but Jimmy's ducks worry me; there were at least two throws last week that should have been pick-6s.
Agree with this take, I think we get two snoozers, but the Super Bowl that everyone wanted back in 2018 or whatever.
 

Ferm Sheller

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KC is going to roll Cincy. 35-21 and it won't be that close. Burrow can't scramble much and their offensive line can't block; they are good offensively but easier to defend than Allen.

SF-LA should be close but Jimmy's ducks worry me; there were at least two throws last week that should have been pick-6s.

I think you're right. I don't bet, but I'd bet big that KC's going to win by more than 7. Tall task for a second year QB to take an inexperienced team into KC and win the AFC Championship against a seasoned KC team.
 

Mystic Merlin

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I mean it can't possibly be worse, right? Right?
I doubt they’ll sack Burrow nine times, I suspect they’ll clean up some of the communication breakdowns and drill into Burrow that he needs to flush the ball earlier, but I think the pressure rate will be pretty high. KC’s pressure rate was 6th in the NFL (TEN 21st) this year.
 

Rudy's Curve

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I doubt they’ll sack Burrow nine times, I suspect they’ll clean up some of the communication breakdowns and drill into Burrow that he needs to flush the ball earlier, but I think the pressure rate will be pretty high. KC’s pressure rate was 6th in the NFL (TEN 21st) this year.
Yeah, a lot of the sacks seemed to be on stunts (which is certainly a credit to Vrabel/Bowen) and on at least a couple it seemed like Burrow had to get it out quicker, especially when there's a free rusher. It's pretty crazy they finished that low in pressure rate - that front four is ferocious (Simmons is probably on Jones' level) and only Dupree missed any time. I thought the Bengals handled the edges pretty well last meeting, but Jones killed them and now the edge guys will have the crowd noise.
 

Al Zarilla

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Collinsworth may be a bad analyst, but was he a clown as a player? I don't remember that aspect.

Anyway, I'm all in for Cincy, but I fear KC will drop a 50 burger next week.
Slapping my forehead, if Collinsworth is a bad analyst, why is he paired with Al Michaels?

I've long had SF as a second team, but I like LAR now too. Stafford finally getting a chance with a very good team and Cooper Kupp, my God. Either LA or SF winning is OK, and please, please, somehow, beat the KC punks.
 

Rudy's Curve

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Adding another reason to root for the Bengals - Mike Brown absolutely adores BB, probably as much if not more than anyone.
 

Ferm Sheller

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Adding another reason to root for the Bengals - Mike Brown absolutely adores BB, probably as much if not more than anyone.
Also, they have some solid alumni: Boomer Esiason seems like a great guy and has supported the Pats through their dynasty years, Corey Dillon helped the Pats to a title, Ickey Woods seems like a really good guy (runs the Ickey Woods Foundation), and if Sam Wyche were still around to care, he seemed like a great guy.
 

BusRaker

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I like the Rams in the NFC where the addition of Von Miller is really starting to pay off. I don't think Jimmy G finishes that game as much as I like him.

Bengals / Chiefs with an over/under of 53.5 I think will be closer. I'm really pulling for the Bengals to win it all at this point but really am just rooting against the Chiefs out of the 4 teams left.

Hopefully Chase puts up more than his 266 yards and we get to watch Mahomes pout on the sideline
 

BaseballJones

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Honestly, a Rams-Chiefs Super Bowl would be pretty awesome. Put Ramsey on Hill, rush the hell out of Mahomes, and pound the Chiefs with Akers and Sony, and see if they can handle Kupp and OBJ. That game could be fantastic. (obviously I'd be rooting hard for the Rams)
 

Rudy's Curve

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Honestly, a Rams-Chiefs Super Bowl would be pretty awesome. Put Ramsey on Hill, rush the hell out of Mahomes, and pound the Chiefs with Akers and Sony, and see if they can handle Kupp and OBJ. That game could be fantastic. (obviously I'd be rooting hard for the Rams)
Ramsey got dusted by Evans yesterday in a spot where all he had to do was not get beat over the top. He's not keeping up with Hill.
 

loshjott

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Honestly, a Rams-Chiefs Super Bowl would be pretty awesome. Put Ramsey on Hill, rush the hell out of Mahomes, and pound the Chiefs with Akers and Sony, and see if they can handle Kupp and OBJ. That game could be fantastic. (obviously I'd be rooting hard for the Rams)
It'll give McVay the chance to lose SBs to the premiere defensive and offensive minds of this generation of coaches.

(I'd be rooting for McVay)
 

DanoooME

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In the NFC West rochambeau:

Rams beat Seahawks
Seahawks beat Niners
Niners beat Rams

And Arizona never gets to play.

My guess is it's the Niners. Overcoming the "no team beats another 3 times in the same season" myth.
 

Euclis20

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Ramsey got dusted by Evans yesterday in a spot where all he had to do was not get beat over the top. He's not keeping up with Hill.
Not that that won't happen, but Evans and Hill are basically as polar opposite as you can be considering they are two of the best deep threat WRs in the game. Ramsay not keeping up with Evans doesn't necessarily mean that he won't perform better against Hill.
 

Euclis20

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In the NFC West rochambeau:

Rams beat Seahawks
Seahawks beat Niners
Niners beat Rams

And Arizona never gets to play.

My guess is it's the Niners. Overcoming the "no team beats another 3 times in the same season" myth.
It is indeed a myth. Since 1970 there has been 22 playoff meetings between division opponents in which one team swept the season series, and the team that swept in the regular season won the playoff game 14 times. Historically the team that swept the season series is nearly twice as likely to win the playoff game.
 

BigSoxFan

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Not that that won't happen, but Evans and Hill are basically as polar opposite as you can be considering they are two of the best deep threat WRs in the game. Ramsay not keeping up with Evans doesn't necessarily mean that he won't perform better against Hill.
Isn’t Ramsey more of a boundary corner? Hill is such an impossible cover because they move him around so much, especially crossing over the middle, and he just knifes through defenses. Ramsey does have physicality so he might be able to disrupt the timing of Hill’s route. Should be fun to watch if it happens.
 

Super Nomario

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Isn’t Ramsey more of a boundary corner? Hill is such an impossible cover because they move him around so much, especially crossing over the middle, and he just knifes through defenses. Ramsey does have physicality so he might be able to disrupt the timing of Hill’s route. Should be fun to watch if it happens.
Ramsey can play anywhere ... which is why he might be a better matchup on Kelce. I'd put Ramsey on Kelce, have my fastest DB shadow Hill with dedicated safety help, and take my chances with the other dudes.
 

BigSoxFan

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Ramsey can play anywhere ... which is why he might be a better matchup on Kelce. I'd put Ramsey on Kelce, have my fastest DB shadow Hill with dedicated safety help, and take my chances with the other dudes.
Agree on the Kelce matchup. Feel like I see Ramsey mostly on the outside when I watch him but admittedly that’s only been a few games this year.
 

candylandriots

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It is indeed a myth. Since 1970 there has been 22 playoff meetings between division opponents in which one team swept the season series, and the team that swept in the regular season won the playoff game 14 times. Historically the team that swept the season series is nearly twice as likely to win the playoff game.
As I posted in the other thread, if SF can win on Sunday (please!) it will be actually 7 straight against the Rams.

I don’t see last season’s or 2019’s results of being predictive, but let’s hope Shanahan knows something McVay doesn’t.