The Celtics still have the 2nd best record in the league, and it's only second because the Bucks are on a tremendous hot streak (21-2 over their last 23 games). The Nuggets have the 3rd best record, but they haven't won shit either, and they've lost 4 straight (to 4 pretty mediocre teams). No one likes looking bad, but when people talk about the doldrums of the regular season, this is it. Get everyone healthy and in shape for the playoffs, that's it.
A Time to Worry: Celtics Postseason Concerns
- Thread starter lovegtm
- Start date
IMO they have played lackluster undisciplined ball for months. And to me thats troubling.
I didn't bet a number so I don't care if its 50, 55 or 60. But I'd prefer 60.
But if they can get healthy and get their game together they can be champions.
When they play to potential its like watching a well choreographed modern dance company doing athletic artistic and beautiful shit. And its mesmerizing.
When they don't its like watching (WBW) my kids ballet recital. I love her but...
I too hold out hope they get healthy and focused and whatever and we get to celebrate 18.
The part to get your hands around is that every team goes through this during the regular season….even the best teams. Tough one in Minnesota tonight maybe I’ll get the popcorn ready for this thread lol.
And if they continue what they have been doing for the past 2-3 months and win 60'ish percent of their remaining games they will be right at that with 55 wins
The Bucks had a 20-17 stretch earlier in the season IIRC, the Sixers have had bad stretches, the Nuggets are having a bad stretch right now.
When there’s no slam dunk juggernaut type of team, this is what it looks like. More than that though, the top teams just aren’t going to go all out for 82 games.
My concern is that if they play like they have for the past 3 months (a 50 win pace) their season ends in May.
Absolutely, and it will be disappointing if it does. This could be 1983 all over again. But it could also be 1981. The suspense is killing us.
Exactly. Getting TL healthy really solves Celtic playoff concerns. All that other stuff is game-to-game variance.
Adding an athletic, high-energy 5 this summer should be Brad's final piece to a 2-3yr run. TimeLord will have to be handled with kid gloves in perpetuity. Al isn't really built to bang low anymore and certainly not over the next 2 seasons.
I don't know whether this sounds extreme, but I think there's a decent chance that they end up wanting to trade TL himself as the salary match for a starting-quality C. It's hard to make the salary math work otherwise.
Brad could scotch tape together Luke/Pritch/Gallo + draft pick. If it doesn't get any better with Grant he could be a sign & trade candidate this summer
Luckily athletic 5s aren't terribly expensive, not in huge demand, & can also be developed out of the 2nd round.
If the Magic win the lottery, I think Brad needs to put together a White-esque package for Wendell Carter.
He’s not as athletic as TL but I think he’s the closest approximation to Al that is attainable
Looking game logs.
+/- for Smart and White since the break
Marcus Smart
IND -3
PHI -22
NYK -8
CLE +1
BKN - 6
CLE -8
POR +16
ATL -6
HOU -5
MIN +5
Derrick White
IND +8
PHI +25
NYK 0
CLE - 1
BKN +4
CLE - 9
POR +7
ATL +9
HOU -2
MIN +11
Turnovers during that stretch Smart:30 White:12 Assist numbers are about the same.
+/- for Smart and White since the break
Marcus Smart
IND -3
PHI -22
NYK -8
CLE +1
BKN - 6
CLE -8
POR +16
ATL -6
HOU -5
MIN +5
Derrick White
IND +8
PHI +25
NYK 0
CLE - 1
BKN +4
CLE - 9
POR +7
ATL +9
HOU -2
MIN +11
Turnovers during that stretch Smart:30 White:12 Assist numbers are about the same.
Thanks for this research. Definitely passes the eye test...how much of Joe Mazz continually playing Smart over White (especially in closing situations) do we think is just going with the longer tenured celts vet vs. knowing that they will likely need a up to speed Marcus come playoff time and this is the best way to go about ensuring that?
During the Houston game, Perkins and Scal were both raving about how Marcus Smart pushes the ball which I thought was surprising. IMO, I often notice when White is in the game because the Celtics' pace seems much quicker when he is bringing the ball up the floor - which leads me to conclude that Smart actually doesn't push the ball very much. It's not like it's every play, for sure, but Smart is the biggest "walk the dog" guy on the team.
I think we are probably at the point where Smart should really be matchup dependent, and in many cases, Brogon and/or White are better choices to have on the floor.
I think we are probably at the point where Smart should really be matchup dependent, and in many cases, Brogon and/or White are better choices to have on the floor.
Marcus hasn't looked the same since that Toronto injury. He was even limping a bit last night on that bad ankle. Just wish he'd take more nights off and try to get healed before the playoffs.
I like WCJ and you have to GIVE up something to get that quality of player but really want White to stick around. Both Brogdon/Smart are also DL-prone.
Just need an athletic, defense-first 5 to share the Center spot with TL. Trust Brad will get it done while keeping the core intact
I think you misunderstood what I meant by “White-esque”. I definitely DONT want to trade White for WCJ.
I meant trade two 1sts and a player or two to get WCJ (like the package that was traded to get Derrick white)
On the broadcast last night, Grande and Scalabrine suggested that the current "swoon" was due to Smart's injury, which happened on Jan 21. They won that game, and including that win, they were 35-12 at that point. They lost the next three, and since the Toronto game they are 13-10. If he's still not fully in form, then (and I apologize for being optimistic) maybe things will improve as his health, conditioning, and timing come back.
I don't really believe their current just-over-.500 playing is due to a single factor like Smart's health, but it certainly could be a contributing factor.
Gotcha...yea that makes a lot of sense. An athletic, defense-first 5 also hedges them against a Grant defection
The problem is that they don't have time to develop a 2nd rounder. It's fine to do it for 2-4 years out, but they need someone now for Tatum/Brown's initial window.
From Shaughnessy's latest:
Brad Stevens sees the same things you see. The Celtics president of basketball operations is ever-careful and diplomatic, but he knows the team isn’t playing great ball the way it was at this time last year. He sees the blown leads, Jayson Tatum’s struggles, the rugged learning curve for Joe Mazzulla, and the reliance on 3-pointers. He knows better than anyone what it’s like to coach today’s fundamentally challenged, social media-driven NBA talents.
The slumping, still-immature Celtics came into the weekend with 12 regular-season games remaining, having dropped 2½ games behind Milwaukee in the quest for the Eastern Conference’s top seed.
“I’m certainly not looking at it as the sky is falling, but we’ve got to clean some things up,” Stevens said after the Celtics’ 2-point win at Minnesota Wednesday. “If you look across the top of the East, we have not played as well out of the break as probably the other top five or six teams. We’re not in the playoffs tomorrow, but we’re not far.”
The Celtics lost five of their first 10 after the All-Star break, blowing huge leads in several games and losing to the abysmal Rockets (15-52) Monday in Houston. They lost a game to Brooklyn at home in which they led by 28 points.
“The Brooklyn game was a bad one, no question about it,” Stevens acknowledged. “There’s a big difference between being up 28 and being up 11 or 13. Those [smaller leads] go pretty quick in this day and age. But when you’re up, you’ve to to play with the exact same urgency that you played with to get up.
“I just don’t think we have been as connected as we were early in the year. You’re going to go through ups and downs throughout the year, but you have to build habits that are going to be sustainable.”
Thirty-four-year-old rookie coach Mazzulla was on a pleasure cruise for most of his first four months but lately has been getting the Matt Patricia scrutiny.
“He’s very smart, he’s got a lot of guts, and he’s got all the qualities that a really good coach has,” said Stevens. “He doesn’t shy from the responsibility. Any time I talk to him after a game, he’s always accountable. It’s always, ‘I wish I could have done this and this.’
“Well, you can go through a thousand things in a game that maybe you could have done. But he never starts with anything else, and I think that’s a great place to start.”
Superstar Tatum has slumped since scoring 55 points in his All-Star MVP performance.
“I don’t lose any sleep over Jayson,” said the Celtics boss. “He works. If his shot is not going in, he’ll put in more time to get his feel and his rhythm.
“I’m encouraged by what he did on the glass [vs. Minnesota] in a game in which he didn’t have it offensively. When we’re small, he might be our best defensive rebounder, and he’s certainly one of our best defenders.
“I don’t worry about the 0-for-7 days or the 4-for-17 days. I just think he’ll be fine over the course of time.”
Robert Williams has played only 28 games and is currently on the shelf with a hamstring injury. The Celtics are a different team without him. Does Stevens anticipate having Williams play regularly in the playoffs?
“Once he clears these next couple of hurdles, coming back off this muscle strain, he should be full good to go unless there’s something that we can’t anticipate that happens. He should have a clean bill of health soon.
“I’m encouraged that we’re nearing full health. Obviously we need everybody on the court and everybody firing in one direction. I was encouraged that in Minnesota we won a game where we didn’t shoot well and we won a game on defense.
“Sometimes shooting can mask things you are not doing well, and we saw that at times early in the year, so it’s good when you can go into a place against a good team and guard well enough to win in a game when we didn’t shoot well. That was encouraging after a discouraging loss.
“I hope we can build off that. I hope we use Monday [the loss to Houston] as a launching pad to play better. I wonder if that’s the one that’s going to get us moving in the right direction.”
Brad Stevens sees the same things you see. The Celtics president of basketball operations is ever-careful and diplomatic, but he knows the team isn’t playing great ball the way it was at this time last year. He sees the blown leads, Jayson Tatum’s struggles, the rugged learning curve for Joe Mazzulla, and the reliance on 3-pointers. He knows better than anyone what it’s like to coach today’s fundamentally challenged, social media-driven NBA talents.
The slumping, still-immature Celtics came into the weekend with 12 regular-season games remaining, having dropped 2½ games behind Milwaukee in the quest for the Eastern Conference’s top seed.
“I’m certainly not looking at it as the sky is falling, but we’ve got to clean some things up,” Stevens said after the Celtics’ 2-point win at Minnesota Wednesday. “If you look across the top of the East, we have not played as well out of the break as probably the other top five or six teams. We’re not in the playoffs tomorrow, but we’re not far.”
The Celtics lost five of their first 10 after the All-Star break, blowing huge leads in several games and losing to the abysmal Rockets (15-52) Monday in Houston. They lost a game to Brooklyn at home in which they led by 28 points.
“The Brooklyn game was a bad one, no question about it,” Stevens acknowledged. “There’s a big difference between being up 28 and being up 11 or 13. Those [smaller leads] go pretty quick in this day and age. But when you’re up, you’ve to to play with the exact same urgency that you played with to get up.
“I just don’t think we have been as connected as we were early in the year. You’re going to go through ups and downs throughout the year, but you have to build habits that are going to be sustainable.”
Thirty-four-year-old rookie coach Mazzulla was on a pleasure cruise for most of his first four months but lately has been getting the Matt Patricia scrutiny.
“He’s very smart, he’s got a lot of guts, and he’s got all the qualities that a really good coach has,” said Stevens. “He doesn’t shy from the responsibility. Any time I talk to him after a game, he’s always accountable. It’s always, ‘I wish I could have done this and this.’
“Well, you can go through a thousand things in a game that maybe you could have done. But he never starts with anything else, and I think that’s a great place to start.”
Superstar Tatum has slumped since scoring 55 points in his All-Star MVP performance.
“I don’t lose any sleep over Jayson,” said the Celtics boss. “He works. If his shot is not going in, he’ll put in more time to get his feel and his rhythm.
“I’m encouraged by what he did on the glass [vs. Minnesota] in a game in which he didn’t have it offensively. When we’re small, he might be our best defensive rebounder, and he’s certainly one of our best defenders.
“I don’t worry about the 0-for-7 days or the 4-for-17 days. I just think he’ll be fine over the course of time.”
Robert Williams has played only 28 games and is currently on the shelf with a hamstring injury. The Celtics are a different team without him. Does Stevens anticipate having Williams play regularly in the playoffs?
“Once he clears these next couple of hurdles, coming back off this muscle strain, he should be full good to go unless there’s something that we can’t anticipate that happens. He should have a clean bill of health soon.
“I’m encouraged that we’re nearing full health. Obviously we need everybody on the court and everybody firing in one direction. I was encouraged that in Minnesota we won a game where we didn’t shoot well and we won a game on defense.
“Sometimes shooting can mask things you are not doing well, and we saw that at times early in the year, so it’s good when you can go into a place against a good team and guard well enough to win in a game when we didn’t shoot well. That was encouraging after a discouraging loss.
“I hope we can build off that. I hope we use Monday [the loss to Houston] as a launching pad to play better. I wonder if that’s the one that’s going to get us moving in the right direction.”
When the Celtics are clicking, they absolutely look like the best team in the NBA. When they're not clicking, they look pretty mediocre, frankly - capable of good games and capable of real stinkers. They've been THAT team for a while now, and obviously it sets off alarm bells for all of us.
It's very easy to see their flaws when they aren't playing well. And we have to all admit that THIS team is capable of showing up like this in the playoffs, and if they do, their run won't last long. But also...they are more than capable of turning it around and being that tremendous machine they were at the start of the year, and if THAT team shows up, the sky's the limit for them.
We just don't know which team will show up at this point.
It's very easy to see their flaws when they aren't playing well. And we have to all admit that THIS team is capable of showing up like this in the playoffs, and if they do, their run won't last long. But also...they are more than capable of turning it around and being that tremendous machine they were at the start of the year, and if THAT team shows up, the sky's the limit for them.
We just don't know which team will show up at this point.
The trade was basically one first. The swap won't happen and the player(s) were just salary
I'm a huge fan of your work, so I hope you don't mind me asking this. Why are we so high on Carter? His name comes up here from time to time.
I see a guy who's efficient, but is probably a few years away from being a threat at the 3pt line. Doesn't do a ton on defense. DPM has him as about an average player. BPM thinks he's below average. Modest growth curves.
He is very young and and has spent the last couple of years in Orlando who develop nobody. So that and pedigree (and age) is the selling point?
I've successfully avoided reading Shank columns for 15 years; glad to see he hasn't changed much. At least he didn't write "you know...the blacks."
Well if Brad Stevens sees what this forum sees, he probably needs Indeed.
Thank you for sharing without linking. Based on those comments, it feels like the team thinks their struggles are more variance, fatigue etc but its also telling that Brad is acknowledging some of the concerns reflected here.
Whether that's the right view or they should be more deeply concerned remains to be seen - I wish they acquired more scoring at the deadline, I have concerns about both Williams and Smart's health into the playoffs and I wonder if some of the defensive problems are structural.
Between these comments as well as some of the different lineups being tried out, it doesn't feel as if they are complacent heading into the playoffs. They may just not have the same sense of urgency around every game that we do. Maybe they should.
Thank you for sharing without linking. Based on those comments, it feels like the team thinks their struggles are more variance, fatigue etc but its also telling that Brad is acknowledging some of the concerns reflected here.
Whether that's the right view or they should be more deeply concerned remains to be seen - I wish they acquired more scoring at the deadline, I have concerns about both Williams and Smart's health into the playoffs and I wonder if some of the defensive problems are structural.
Between these comments as well as some of the different lineups being tried out, it doesn't feel as if they are complacent heading into the playoffs. They may just not have the same sense of urgency around every game that we do. Maybe they should.
This is a very fair question and, to be honest, I’ve been beating this drum a ton so it might just be me you are seeing talking about WCJ. I think he would be a great fit on this particular team and I think there’s a lot more left to his game that can be projected forward and brought out with a better situation/team.
-He’s a connector that doesn’t need the ball. Going back to his year at Duke, Carter has never been the main guy (Marvin Bagley was his year there). Because of this he’s had to learn to play without being fed the ball and is very adept at the little things. He’s a great screener (Cole Anthony said he’s the best screener he ever played with) and a very good passer. Being able to leave an impact on offense without needing the ball is honestly one of the main things i look for in potential Celtics players because the vast majority of the offense is running through Brown and Tatum so players need to know what to do to make an impact without plays being run for them.
-Defensive versatility. I think Carter is one of the only players who can be a close approximation to Horford that is realistically attainable. He’s big enough to hang with centers but he can also be switched onto guards and golf his own.
I believe the 3 point shooting will come. Carter’s got a nice stroke and has always showcased good touch. He’s a career 73% FT shooter which should translate to being good enough behind the arc to keep defenses honest and make the wide open ones.
To your point, he’s also been in pretty terrible situations thus far in his career. He was on those trainwreck bulls teams when they were coached by Jim Boylen, the wannabe tough guy who basically caused a player mutiny with all of his bullshit, and now the Magic who aren’t exactly well known for their sterling player development.
Even though the following link contains a lot of coach speak and fluff (it’s kind of like the in season version of “best shape of his life”) I do think it touches on a lot of things that Carter does that won’t necessarily be seen in a box score.
https://www.bostonherald.com/2023/03/13/magics-wendell-carter-jr-staying-motivated-against-leagues-top-bigs/amp/
Thanks for that. Makes a ton of sense.
I was the guy for years humping a Myles Turner trade for similar "there's a player in there" reasons, and you've just laid out a better case for WCJ projection.
I was the guy for years humping a Myles Turner trade for similar "there's a player in there" reasons, and you've just laid out a better case for WCJ projection.
Ha, yeah we spent a while trying to figure out how to pry Turner or Sabonis out of Indy
WCJ is the perfect Al replacement, IMO. His advanced stats are down a bit this year, but I think he’s a guy who could really blow up in a good system, has a really high bball iq.
I agree on Carter. He’s like a mini-Horford in many ways and his high BBIQ along with complementary style isn’t ever going to shine on a dysfunctional losing team. Not a surprised he’s being noticed now that he’s on a competitive if not somewhat quality team.
I was already very confident in my Carter lust but if Rorschach agrees then I am 100% confident.WCJ is the perfect Al replacement, IMO. This is the last two seasons, and I think he’s a guy who could really blow up in a good system, has a really high bball iq.
Your comparison to it being a White esque acquisition was the perfect description. He’s a guy who will put up better raw stats than White, but he’s similar in that he’s a high iq connector who doesn’t mind doing the little things. He would be just a perfect fit here lol.
WCJ auditioning for SOSH, led Orlando to a win over the Clippers today. 27/12 with 2 assists, 3 steals, and 2 blocks.
Back to some concerns tonight. Mazzulla seems to have no creativity in must-have offensive plays, and Tatum still can't shoot right now. Also Grant has a great night from 3 but still finds a way to lose the game, what a player.
C's are now technically tied for the 3 seed, by percentage points they are the 3 seed. Cleveland is fading so they probably don't fall further than that... but ...
View: https://twitter.com/ByJayKing/status/1637296295286280192?t=odZOKCtN5O1xFZl_54h2Yg&s=19
View: https://twitter.com/ChrisForsberg_/status/1637296312860196866?t=CuM47YD1aFoqPOO6M6WSnw&s=19
C's are now technically tied for the 3 seed, by percentage points they are the 3 seed. Cleveland is fading so they probably don't fall further than that... but ...
View: https://twitter.com/ByJayKing/status/1637296295286280192?t=odZOKCtN5O1xFZl_54h2Yg&s=19
View: https://twitter.com/ChrisForsberg_/status/1637296312860196866?t=CuM47YD1aFoqPOO6M6WSnw&s=19
Tatum nearly 38 minutes on the second night of a back-to-back at elevation. But it’s good to see him getting into a good rhythm before the real games begin, 51% TS.
Derrick White played 0 minutes in the 4th.... that's indefensible, even if you decide you want Smart over him (a close call), he's got to be in there a good chunk of the 4th especially when you're scuffling AND on the SEGABABA.
CJM close and late has gone from a cute nuisance when things were going well to being a potential fatal flaw. This guy is closing in on Nathaniel Hackett at the end of games. How in the world does this game end with white not giving the floor in the 4th and grant Williams taking a last shot?
The reason this guy has to be accountable after all these games is he keeps screwing up. Brad can and should sugarcoat it but he just made a guy the permanent coach who very may well not be qualified for the job.
The reason this guy has to be accountable after all these games is he keeps screwing up. Brad can and should sugarcoat it but he just made a guy the permanent coach who very may well not be qualified for the job.
yeah brainfart... I meant Brogdon, I was thinking of his general insistence on Smart no matter what over White late which is a recurring problem.
If Tatum is hurt, and I know there’s been some talk about his wrist being a problem, then he shouldn’t be playing. If he has to play, he certainly shouldn’t be playing this many minutes and he 100% shouldn’t be the fucking primary option on designed plays at the end of the game
And I think MAzzulla is an issue. Scalabrine was on the Lowe Post yesterday and although he didn’t say it directly every issue they both said that there was with the team are coaching issues. Not playing hard enough, not passing more, not taking pride in defense.
And I think MAzzulla is an issue. Scalabrine was on the Lowe Post yesterday and although he didn’t say it directly every issue they both said that there was with the team are coaching issues. Not playing hard enough, not passing more, not taking pride in defense.
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This summer I expect to read about cortisone shots being injected with some pain tolerance mgmt BS
I'd opt for an overabundance of rest until the playoffs because this version of Tatum makes the C's very beatable.
CBS Sports says Tatum is heading for offseason surgery:
I don't think I've heard anything this definite from Tatum himself. Sportswriter just getting sloppy here? Or?