A Dream of 2025, What is Going Right and Looks like the Sox can Build On

[TomRicardo]

This excludes players like Pivetta, O'Neill, Martin, and Jansen.

The big thing that is fairly obvious is the rotation.

Kutter has continued to improve and has looked like a legitimate top of the rotation pitcher with three top line pitches with FB, Sweeper/Slider, and Cutter with a solid curveball. Houck's look like a solid No. 2 starter with incredible control so far with a devastating sinker as well as a solid split finger and slider. Bello looks like a solid rotational arm with more consistency with removing the 4 seam from his pitch repertoire. Whitlock, who still has some questions around whether he can stick as a starter, looks to have improved his pitch selection.

Justin Slaten looks amazing. He was a great pick up and looks like an ace reliever.

Starting next year with a rotation of Kutter, Houck, Bello, Giolito with Whitlock and Slaten joining Hendricks in the bullpen is a great start. We will see how they continue but so far that looks like a nice base to start off team building with next year.

On the offensive side of the ball, Casas looks to be the hitter he was last year. Starting off a bit slow again, still looks like a middle of the order bat to place along Devers who has hit well besides having some poor luck at the plate. Jarren Duran looks like an every day OF. His fielding has improved a bit and his plat approach has as well.

Rafaela at worst looks like a useful bench bat / utility player and both catchers have been better and will available next year.

With optimism 20 games in, the 2025 Red Sox have a solid rotation with some top end relivers and should be more than solid in the corners with decent catching, a solid OF, and some bench depth with Rafaela. Looking forward to seeing Grissom and hoping some of Portland can keep growing to help add depth to a team completely lacking it. Early returns on Fitts, Meyer, Anthony, and Teel look good.

 

[billy ashley]

Good stuff.

Very early but each of Anthony, Teel and Mayer are hitting in the minors. The quickest path to Boston being a contender is one of those guys becoming a legit core piece.

Connor Wong is also off to a nice start and should continue to be a useful, cheap option at Catcher.

 

[DeadlySplitter]

I think 2025 is too aggressive given the bumpiness of most prospect timelines, but by 2026 you could dream on...

Teel/Wong C
Infield: Devers, Mayer, Grissom, Casas, with bench of Valdez/Story. Could move on from both of these guys and some cheap FA for bench... Nick Yorke is fading recently or he'd be a nice option here.
Outfield: Duran, Rafaela, Anthony, Abreu, FA (O'Neill stays? Can deal Duran/Abreu for a decent starter with 2+ years control?)
DH: FA/Yoshida/rotating/surprise prospect

Rotation:
-Houck, Crawford, Bello look solidified at this exact moment, but it's still April so we'll see
-Whitlock still seems best as a pen piece to me, it's unfortunate how many nagging injuries he's had
-Pivetta is ??? if he stays past this season
-Giolito will be around in 2025, could be under team control for 2026 too
-See which of Criswell, Perales, Wilkelman, Fitts, Sandlin etc. become viable options / trade bait
-Bring in a legitimate SP like Fried or Burnes in FA, John Henry willing

The pen is so variable I won't even speculate anything right now, but Martin/Jansen probably aren't here next year so some of the depth options above will probably become high leverage reliever candidates. Wilkelman if he can not be a Darwinzon clone, perhaps. This is another spot where the immediate pitching pipeline isn't quite there yet, so I can see another FA acquisition filling this in.

 

[chrisfont9]

The challenge will still be pitching depth even if we get one or two guys moving up quickly. They will need to bring in a few more arms for the fringes of the rotation and for bullpen roles, including closer. But on the plus side (along with all TomR mentioned to begin this post), the new regime might be good at recognizing and deploying pitching talent. So if the Kids make it into the lineup, the number of holes to fill will be few.

 

[RS2004foreever]

This excludes players like Pivetta, O'Neill, Martin, and Jansen.

The big thing that is fairly obvious is the rotation.

Kutter has continued to improve and has looked like a legitimate top of the rotation pitcher with three top line pitches with FB, Sweeper/Slider, and Cutter with a solid curveball. Houck's look like a solid No. 2 starter with incredible control so far with a devastating sinker as well as a solid split finger and slider. Bello looks like a solid rotational arm with more consistency with removing the 4 seam from his pitch repertoire. Whitlock, who still has some questions around whether he can stick as a starter, looks to have improved his pitch selection.

Justin Slaten looks amazing. He was a great pick up and looks like an ace reliever.

Starting next year with a rotation of Kutter, Houck, Bello, Giolito with Whitlock and Slaten joining Hendricks in the bullpen is a great start. We will see how they continue but so far that looks like a nice base to start off team building with next year.

On the offensive side of the ball, Casas looks to be the hitter he was last year. Starting off a bit slow again, still looks like a middle of the order bat to place along Devers who has hit well besides having some poor luck at the plate. Jarren Duran looks like an every day OF. His fielding has improved a bit and his plat approach has as well.

Rafaela at worst looks like a useful bench bat / utility player and both catchers have been better and will available next year.

With optimism 20 games in, the 2025 Red Sox have a solid rotation with some top end relivers and should be more than solid in the corners with decent catching, a solid OF, and some bench depth with Rafaela. Looking forward to seeing Grissom and hoping some of Portland can keep growing to help add depth to a team completely lacking it. Early returns on Fitts, Meyer, Anthony, and Teel look good.

If the starting pitching is top 5 (assuming that this won't continue) then the big need will be offense. I am not convinced Rafaella has a role on this team, and since starting pitching doesn't last you could argue you have a window you need to take advantage of in 2025. That is complicated by the expected arrival of the big 3.

 

[Rovin Romine]

Year 2 - Breslow hires the hitting coach version of Bailey.

 

[Yaz4Ever]

Year 2 - Breslow hires the hitting coach version of Bailey.

and the fielding coach version of Bailey as well. Where's Pesky and his fungo when we need him?

 

[Fishy1]

The starting pitching has largely been nails, and most of the guys are homegrown. That's awesome. I remember a lot of complaining over the winter about how the Red Sox hadn't had a top starting pitching prospect in however many years succeed, and now look -- they've got Houck, Crawford, and Bello all looking legit or better, plus a couple of Rule 5 guys in Slaten and Whitlock dominating. Yes, Whitlock has struggled to get out of the fifth inning, but he also only threw about 85 pitches in most of those starts, and was on his way to probably at least six the other night before he was shut down with the oblique. The question with him will be health, but then, that's the question with most pitchers.

Down on the farm, Richard Fitts has had a pretty good intro to AAA as well. Gambrell's numbers peripherals there look good too. I imagine both will be available as depth as soon as the middle of this year. Plenty of interesting relief arms down there, too. Booser, Guerrero, and Benitez all look like guys who might be serviceable or better.

I think the offense has been pretty well covered, too, the thing for me is the young position players. Casas has obviously been very good, Duran has cut his K rate again, and Wong has had a hot start accompanied by a depressed K rate (25% instead of his usual 30+). Very early, and plenty of time for guys to regress, obviously, but skys the limit for Duran if his K rate is around 20% instead of 25%. Putting the ball in play 5% of the time more often is huge for a guy like him who hits so many line drives.

I'm interested to see what happens with the other younger guys. Abreu, Valdez, Grissom, Rafaela... One of these guys hasn't played yet, and the others have had miserable starts on one side of the ball or the other. Things can turn around fast, but I didn't expect to see Abreu and Valdez with K rates pushing 30%. Valdez has the worst BABIP on the team, so he's due for some correction (HH% is over 40%, but LD% is only 6%, yikes). Wilyer, I don't know -- plenty of walks, but a Dalbecian K rate so far and the BABIP doesn't suggest correction is on its way. He just needs to strike out way less. And there's nothing good you can say about Rafaela's offense right now. A low BABIP, sure, but he's not hitting the ball hard, he's striking out quite a bit, and he's not getting on base.

Now, all of those guys could get hot at once and more or less erase some of our concerns, but it's been a disappointing beginning for all of them.

 

[Sin Duda]

We *do* have the closer, Liam Hendricks, in house for 2025.

 

[nvalvo]

Year 2 - Breslow hires the hitting coach version of Bailey.

I think we might already have something like this, but in the low minors. A lot of our young hitters are adding a lot of bat speed.

Kristian Campbell looks like the test case here. The old adage was that you can’t teach power, so you draft dudes with pop and try to help them gain an approach. But if he succeeds, then the model may shift to drafting guys with a solid approach and working on bat speed until they’re posting good exit velos.

 

[cantor44]

Well, if all goes well with the big name prospects, the Sox could have a mostly homegrown quality starting line up in 2025:
Teel, Casas, Grissom, Mayer, Devers, Duran, Rafaela, Anthony, Yoshida(?)
Very lefty heavy. Still lacks a RHH power hitter. Maybe a FA acquisition there in the outfield would be critical, and they rotate who is at DH, or push Rafaela into a super utility role, or ditch Yoshida.
Hot out of the gate with the starting pitchers is the most exciting thing this year. Let's see what's sustainable over larger SS. And given injuries, I'd still like to see them acquire a top of the rotation arm, too, in the off season.
With the development of the current younger(ish) fellas, and a new crop coming, it feels like the Red Sox will once again face the question of spending on free agency or not in the off season, and that decision could well determine if they can really be a contender. Promising young core developing, but will need a boost.
EDIT: I forgot about Story. That adds depth, and maybe the DH rotation, then, happens in the infield (with Devers seeing more time there)

 

[RedOctober3829]

It's the same story as this past offseason, except with more knowledge at least in a short sample that the depth in the rotation is improved under Bailey. They have to add a top of the rotation starter. If they don't, we'll be in the same position we are now which is an average to below average team. After that, the priority should be to get better on defense. Even with the rotation having an unbelievable start, it's only resulted in a 10-9 record. The amount of unearned runs being given up by this team is unacceptable. That has to be addressed.

The pieces in the minors are tantalizing to look at, but there can't be an expectation of them coming up to the major league level and being counted on to produce right away. The talent level around them has to be raised to a level where they can be eased in. Another starter, a power hitting OF, and better defense would go a long ways.

 

[simplicio]

and the fielding coach version of Bailey as well. Where's Pesky and his fungo when we need him?

And the medical/training version of Bailey too.

 

[Yaz4Ever]

And the medical/training version of Bailey too.

Charlie Moss

 

[Rovin Romine]

Well, if all goes well with the big name prospects, the Sox could have a mostly homegrown quality starting line up in 2025:
Teel, Casas, Grissom, Mayer, Devers, Duran, Rafaela, Anthony, Yoshida(?)
Very lefty heavy. Still lacks a RHH power hitter. Maybe a FA acquisition there in the outfield would be critical, and they rotate who is at DH, or push Rafaela into a super utility role, or ditch Yoshida.
Hot out of the gate with the starting pitchers is the most exciting thing this year. Let's see what's sustainable over larger SS. And given injuries, I'd still like to see them acquire a top of the rotation arm, too, in the off season.
With the development of the current younger(ish) fellas, and a new crop coming, it feels like the Red Sox will once again face the question of spending on free agency or not in the off season, and that decision could well determine if they can really be a contender. Promising young core developing, but will need a boost.
EDIT: I forgot about Story. That adds depth, and maybe the DH rotation, then, happens in the infield (with Devers seeing more time there)

Look at the numbers: https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=grisso000vau

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Look at the numbers: https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=grisso000vau

I was discussing this in another thread... but I think the Sox will be lingering just outside of playoff contention this season into July and they'll be put into another similar situation like in '22 and '23 at the deadline. Agree or not, Bloom decided that either the returns weren't good on trades or he saw a path towards getting into the playoffs. Failed both those years but I hope Breslow can see better. Being 5 games out is clearly within reach, especially if there's direct competition against other contenders. They need to hope guys like Jansen, Yoshida, etc... who are at best peripheral to the future teams.... can be traded with either substantial salary relief or a good player returning. Nobody thought that Sale was going to be traded for a prospect as good as Grissom this past off-season.... and definitely not at the last trade deadline. The future team could possibly look very different if Breslow has some good chips in those guys.
If nothing happens though.... the future really is starting to look good IMO. I'm very bullish on the top 3. If Bleis can step it up and one of the mL pitchers, the entire organization is looking very solid for years.

 

[chrisfont9]

It's the same story as this past offseason, except with more knowledge at least in a short sample that the depth in the rotation is improved under Bailey. They have to add a top of the rotation starter. If they don't, we'll be in the same position we are now which is an average to below average team. After that, the priority should be to get better on defense. Even with the rotation having an unbelievable start, it's only resulted in a 10-9 record. The amount of unearned runs being given up by this team is unacceptable. That has to be addressed.

The pieces in the minors are tantalizing to look at, but there can't be an expectation of them coming up to the major league level and being counted on to produce right away. The talent level around them has to be raised to a level where they can be eased in. Another starter, a power hitting OF, and better defense would go a long ways.

By top of the rotation starter, are you saying they need more quality or just depth? You don't believe the hot starts will last? I wouldn't necessarily disagree, some of these numbers are unsustainable.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

With optimism 20 games in, the 2025 Red Sox have a solid rotation with some top end relivers and should be more than solid in the corners with decent catching, a solid OF, and some bench depth with Rafaela. Looking forward to seeing Grissom and hoping some of Portland can keep growing to help add depth to a team completely lacking it. Early returns on Fitts, Meyer, Anthony, and Teel look good.

The Red Sox have two back up catchers. Until Teel is ready to come up they will have a bottom tier catching unit.

Curious if your comment about decent catching reflects a change in opinion due to the solid start by these catchers, or a feeling that Teel will be up in 2025. Personally, I think this tandem is just fine, even solid, and can hold down the fort competently until Teel is ready.

 

[TomRicardo]

Curious if your comment about decent catching reflects a change in opinion due to the solid start by these catchers, or a feeling that Teel will be up in 2025. Personally, I think this tandem is just fine, even solid, and can hold down the fort competently until Teel is ready.

The pitch calling is way better. I think Varitek is way more involved with the game planning at this point. I think both are good back ups at this point and you can live with a rotation of both of them.

It is not a situation like Story (can't stay healthy) or Yoshida (not bringing value) where you are stuck with them.

 

[RedOctober3829]

By top of the rotation starter, are you saying they need more quality or just depth? You don't believe the hot starts will last? I wouldn't necessarily disagree, some of these numbers are unsustainable.

More quality. Get a guy who can anchor the top of the rotation.

 

[Rovin Romine]

I think Varitek is way more involved with the game planning at this point.

Why?

 

[TomRicardo]

Why?

Why do I think the catching and game planning coach is more involved with better game planning and pitch calling, besides Breslow, Cora, Bailey and Varitek publicly talking about the approach?

Magic.

 

[Rovin Romine]

Why do I think the catching and game planning coach is more involved with better game planning and pitch calling, besides Breslow, Cora, Bailey and Varitek publicly talking about the approach?

Magic.

Seems to me Varitek has had more or less the same job since 2021. The catchers have differed, sure. Then Bailey is hired in 2024 and we see a huge jump forward with all the pitcher performances which involves a very different pitch mix and approach to batters. This has been pretty widely reported.

Why do you think Varitek has anything to do with that change beyond implementing it? Has there been some reporting Varitek and Dave Bush vigorously disagreed for the past 3 years or something? That finally Bailey untied Varitek's hands and stepped back?

 

[TomRicardo]

Seems to me Varitek has had more or less the same job since 2021. The catchers have differed, sure. Then Bailey is hired in 2024 and we see a huge jump forward with all the pitcher performances which involves a very different pitch mix and approach to batters. This has been pretty widely reported.

Why do you think Varitek has anything to do with that change beyond implementing it? Has there been some reporting Varitek and Dave Bush vigorously disagreed for the past 3 years or something? That finally Bailey untied Varitek's hands and stepped back?

Are you Rudy P with a new name?

 

[Rovin Romine]

Are you Rudy P with a new name?

This a thread you started Tom, so I won't press the point beyond this post.

The question remains - if you're going to list Varitek as a future positive piece, we need to ignore his famous name and look at what he's actually doing. He may be a plus catching coach, or have other assets he brings to the table. He's clearly able to implement Breslow/Bailey's new pitching approach, and that's actually important.

But I don't think it's smart to assume he's the causal factor for the pitching approach change in his 4th year.

If he is, I'd honestly like to know.

 

[chrisfont9]

More quality. Get a guy who can anchor the top of the rotation.

Yeah. I am just probing what exactly people think we need. We currently have four starters with ERAs under 2. You can't acquire someone to improve on that. My guess is that Pivetta, Houck, Crawford and Whitlock end up more in the 3 range, but again, that's tough to improve on. Do we need more inning-eaters? If you just are thinking "roles" then I think we are talking about narratives rather than performance. Fans and maybe even some teammates take comfort in having a former CYA award winner out there, but ultimately we just need guys to get outs.

Right now our bullpen is more of a weakness, but even that is hard to predict whether we really need more guys or it's just some ups and downs.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Yeah. I am just probing what exactly people think we need. We currently have four starters with ERAs under 2. You can't acquire someone to improve on that. My guess is that Pivetta, Houck, Crawford and Whitlock end up more in the 3 range, but again, that's tough to improve on. Do we need more inning-eaters? If you just are thinking "roles" then I think we are talking about narratives rather than performance. Fans and maybe even some teammates take comfort in having a former CYA award winner out there, but ultimately we just need guys to get outs.

Right now our bullpen is more of a weakness, but even that is hard to predict whether we really need more guys or it's just some ups and downs.

I have serious doubt that even 2 of the guys you mention will end up having ERA’s in the 3’s. Unless you think Bailey has turned these guys into the 90’s Braves rotation, these types of performances will not last. Things will even out and these guys will revert more towards their career numbers than the ones they’re putting up now. They need an ace-level guy who can both shove and eat innings up and has a proven track record of doing so. If you have SP1 and Bello to head up the rotation, that puts one of the guys you mentioned into a multi-inning relief ace role.

 

[Max Power]

I have serious doubt that even 2 of the guys you mention will end up having ERA’s in the 3’s. Unless you think Bailey has turned these guys into the 90’s Braves rotation, these types of performances will not last. Things will even out and these guys will revert more towards their career numbers than the ones they’re putting up now. They need an ace-level guy who can both shove and eat innings up and has a proven track record of doing so. If you have SP1 and Bello to head up the rotation, that puts one of the guys you mentioned into a multi-inning relief ace role.

Have you been watching baseball in the last 5 years? Those guys are exceptionally rare and they all eventually blow out their elbows. Who is this innings eating ace you're thinking they should get?

 

[RedOctober3829]

Have you been watching baseball in the last 5 years? Those guys are exceptionally rare and they all eventually blow out their elbows. Who is this innings eating ace you're thinking they should get?

So they should just not try to get one? That’s pretty ridiculous.

 

[simplicio]

So they should just not try to get one? That’s pretty ridiculous.

They did, he blew out his elbow in ST.

 

[RedOctober3829]

They did, he blew out his elbow in ST.

Lucas Giolito is not a top level starter anymore. He pitches a lot of innings which is not a bad thing, but he hasn’t been good in 3 years.

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

So they should just not try to get one? That’s pretty ridiculous.

I don't think anyone's saying "don't try to improve the pitching," just that the days when you could go out and trade for a Josh Beckett or sign a Jon Lester and then dust your hands off seem long gone. Teams need to adjust their strategies and fans need to adjust their expectations.

 

[simplicio]

Lucas Giolito is not a top level starter anymore. He pitches a lot of innings which is not a bad thing, but he hasn’t been good in 3 years.

He hasn't been, but I also don't feel like they got him to replicate his last two.

 

[chrisfont9]

Lucas Giolito is not a top level starter anymore. He pitches a lot of innings which is not a bad thing, but he hasn’t been good in 3 years.

I think the other people here are trying to point out that it's not as easy as just deciding to get an ace. I would go further to say that the past is not the future -- not for the so called aces or the guys who haven't proven themselves yet. Right now, I would say that the closest thing to an available ace is Corbin Burnes who will be a free agent after this year, and who hasn't blown out his elbow (yet). Unfortunately Baltimore's new ownership means that they will probably compete to keep him, which will make it really hard for the Sox to get him absent an absurdly over-the-top offer. Next I guess would be Monty and Snell again. Max Fried is another FA next winter, although he's off to a terrible start. After that, you get into the middle class, and I wouldn't suggest paying $25m for someone to replace what our current starters are showing now for a fraction of the cost. These other guys aren't any more ace-like than who we already have.

IMO this is why Breslow kept talking about trades. Not only because the team has more control over the outcome because a guy isn't sifting through multiple offers, but also because it's the only way to find upside. The free agents have generally realized all the upside they'll ever have, and will charge you top dollar for it. And then blow out their elbows.

 

[RedOctober3829]

I think the other people here are trying to point out that it's not as easy as just deciding to get an ace. I would go further to say that the past is not the future -- not for the so called aces or the guys who haven't proven themselves yet. Right now, I would say that the closest thing to an available ace is Corbin Burnes who will be a free agent after this year, and who hasn't blown out his elbow (yet). Unfortunately Baltimore's new ownership means that they will probably compete to keep him, which will make it really hard for the Sox to get him absent an absurdly over-the-top offer. Next I guess would be Monty and Snell again. Max Fried is another FA next winter, although he's off to a terrible start. After that, you get into the middle class, and I wouldn't suggest paying $25m for someone to replace what our current starters are showing now for a fraction of the cost. These other guys aren't any more ace-like than who we already have.

IMO this is why Breslow kept talking about trades. Not only because the team has more control over the outcome because a guy isn't sifting through multiple offers, but also because it's the only way to find upside. The free agents have generally realized all the upside they'll ever have, and will charge you top dollar for it. And then blow out their elbows.

The elbow issue you keep bringing up isn’t going away anytime soon. With any pitcher, it’s a risk you’re going to have to take. Until they have a method where they’re really good at drafting and developing starting pitching, they’re going to have to live in the free agent/trade area. Now, they may have that method with Bailey and Willard but it’s going to take a couple of years before we know. In the short-term, they’re going to have to pay for the top level guy. Breslow is going to have to be willing to move prospects if you’re going to trade for someone. He showed little willingness to do that this past offseason.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

I don't think that the past performances of any of Bello, Crawford or Houck are indicative of where they will eventually land this season. Their MLB track record is too thin or too interupted by freak injuries for any accurate predictions. Pitchers (or any player) can improve (or regress, sure.) It's far too early to state that the Sox need to go out and sign or trade for a "proven ace" for '25. The track record for those moves is pretty scary in itself but besides that... it's simply too early. I've become real bullish on Crawford as a potential top of a rotation guy- which is crazy given his mL record. Bello I'm not sure will ever reach "ace" level, but his ceiling hasn't been reached yet, clearly.... and maybe Houck's last start was his "Jon Lester Moment" (when after struggling through '06 and early '07 a lot of posters thought his ceiling was a mid rotation guy then suddenly had a no-no and never really looked back------ despite some less than great seasons, he was always at least very good, but debatably an "ace"). Right now though I'm seeing those 3 as being able to go up against any other team's top three and in a straight pitching duel, match them through at least 5 full innings. If Pivetta returns (not just this season, but future ones, looking like he had to start the season and last season's second half) then that's an F'in good rotation. Add Criswell, Fitts into the mix and you don't need to trade or sign anyone and maybe somehow Soto ends up spending one season in pinstripes before Henry REALLY opens up the purse strings? It's looking more and more like the big chunks of money need to be dumped into positional players rather than Tommy John Surgery candidates.

 

[BaseballJones]

At the trade deadline, the Sox really should unload Martin and Jansen at a minimum. They will have solid bullpen arms in place for 2025, including Hendriks as closer, and almost certainly won't really be in playoff contention in 2024, even if it looks like they kindasorta could be at the deadline. They also need to figure out what to do with O'Neill - whether to extend him (he's 29 years old) or trade him, because he's a FA after this season. Same thing with Pivetta.

I'm eager for a 2025 with:

C - Wong/Teel
1b - Casas
2b - Grissom
3b - Devers
SS - Eh... Story? Mayer?
OF - Duran, Abreu, Yoshida, Rafaela, Anthony (?)
SP - Bello, Giolito, Houck, Whitlock, and Crawford
RP - Hendriks, Slaten, Weissert, Winckowski, and even Bernardino, who's been really good

They have some good pieces for a team in 2025. If the kids are truly ready to go, 2025 should be a lot of fun.

 

[twibnotes]

I’ll get excited when they have a viable path to moving Devers to DH/1B and finding a legit 3B who can field. Feels like the elephant in the room with this team, and seeing him struggle with injuries only makes it a bigger concern.

 

[Fishy1]

I’ll get excited when they have a viable path to moving Devers to DH/1B and finding a legit 3B who can field. Feels like the elephant in the room with this team, and seeing him struggle with injuries only makes it a bigger concern.

Only guy in the minors who really looks like an option to there is Meidroth. Good news is he has terrific plate discipline and is an excellent fielder at third (I've heard, SoxProspects disagrees). Bad news is very little power and only hit .255 at AA last year (although he posted an OBP north of .400 nonetheless). Not off to a great start at AAA -- but he's walking more than he's striking out and might be seeing some depressed numbers because of a low BABIP. Best news is he's young for the level, only 22. He's a sleeper candidate to be a legit major leaguer. Not a toolsy guy but the discipline is very, very real, and he's never struck out very much and is only striking out 13% of the time in AAA right now.

 

[nvalvo]

Only guy in the minors who really looks like an option to there is Meidroth. Good news is he has terrific plate discipline and is an excellent fielder at third (I've heard, SoxProspects disagrees). Bad news is very little power and only hit .255 at AA last year (although he posted an OBP north of .400 nonetheless). Not off to a great start at AAA -- but he's walking more than he's striking out and might be seeing some depressed numbers because of a low BABIP. Best news is he's young for the level, only 22. He's a sleeper candidate to be a legit major leaguer. Not a toolsy guy but the discipline is very, very real, and he's never struck out very much and is only striking out 13% of the time in AAA right now.

Well, by 2025 we could have Grissom, Valdez, Mayer, Story, and Yorke for three infield spots. Eddinson Paulino has started hot in AA, too. Maybe that yields a Grissom/Mayer/Story infield, with Devers mostly at DH and Valdez as a left-handed complement to Story and Grissom?

 

[RedOctober3829]

I don't think that the past performances of any of Bello, Crawford or Houck are indicative of where they will eventually land this season. Their MLB track record is too thin or too interupted by freak injuries for any accurate predictions. Pitchers (or any player) can improve (or regress, sure.) It's far too early to state that the Sox need to go out and sign or trade for a "proven ace" for '25. The track record for those moves is pretty scary in itself but besides that... it's simply too early. I've become real bullish on Crawford as a potential top of a rotation guy- which is crazy given his mL record. Bello I'm not sure will ever reach "ace" level, but his ceiling hasn't been reached yet, clearly.... and maybe Houck's last start was his "Jon Lester Moment" (when after struggling through '06 and early '07 a lot of posters thought his ceiling was a mid rotation guy then suddenly had a no-no and never really looked back------ despite some less than great seasons, he was always at least very good, but debatably an "ace"). Right now though I'm seeing those 3 as being able to go up against any other team's top three and in a straight pitching duel, match them through at least 5 full innings. If Pivetta returns (not just this season, but future ones, looking like he had to start the season and last season's second half) then that's an F'in good rotation. Add Criswell, Fitts into the mix and you don't need to trade or sign anyone and maybe somehow Soto ends up spending one season in pinstripes before Henry REALLY opens up the purse strings? It's looking more and more like the big chunks of money need to be dumped into positional players rather than Tommy John Surgery candidates.

If you think it's too early for them to get a top of the rotation guy, then it's definitely way too early to think guys like Crawford, Houck, or Pivetta will consistently put up these kind of numbers(or even close to it) on a consistent basis. It's ok to be encouraged by the progress, but way way too early for a statement that say you can put these guys up against any team's top 3 in baseball. It's funny that people are all of a sudden concerned about going after "Tommy John surgery" candidates like it's something that just popped up. Newsflash--with the amount of emphasis on max effort and increased spin rate in pitching over the last few years every pitcher is going to be a TJ candidate.

 

[HfxBob]

If you think it's too early for them to get a top of the rotation guy, then it's definitely way too early to think guys like Crawford, Houck, or Pivetta will consistently put up these kind of numbers(or even close to it) on a consistent basis. It's ok to be encouraged by the progress, but way way too early for a statement that say you can put these guys up against any team's top 3 in baseball. It's funny that people are all of a sudden concerned about going after "Tommy John surgery" candidates like it's something that just popped up. Newsflash--with the amount of emphasis on max effort and increased spin rate in pitching over the last few years every pitcher is going to be a TJ candidate.

You're right about that, but it seems to be an argument in favor of limiting the financial investment in starting pitchers any which way you can.

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

You're right about that, but it seems to be an argument in favor of limiting the financial investment in starting pitchers any which way you can.

I hesitate to bring this up, but I'm starting to wonder if the Bloom model of bringing in a bunch of 1- and 2-year guys every year is the way to go. I think the end result of all of these injuries will just be that teams won't give out big contracts to pitchers anymore, not even for the Corbin Burneses of the world.

 

[HfxBob]

I hesitate to bring this up, but I'm starting to wonder if the Bloom model of bringing in a bunch of 1- and 2-year guys every year is the way to go. I think the end result of all of these injuries will just be that teams won't give out big contracts to pitchers anymore, not even for the Corbin Burneses of the world.

I don't know about the Bloom model (some good and some bad, Kluber was a disaster) but the Red Sox have Bello, Houck and Crawford all pitching well at relatively low cost. I'd add Whitlock but his continuing injury issues are obviously a major concern.

 

[bosockboy]

I hesitate to bring this up, but I'm starting to wonder if the Bloom model of bringing in a bunch of 1- and 2-year guys every year is the way to go. I think the end result of all of these injuries will just be that teams won't give out big contracts to pitchers anymore, not even for the Corbin Burneses of the world.

The new model is what just happened to Snell and Montgomery. Get paid 1-2 years at a time.

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

I don't know about the Bloom model (some good and some bad, Kluber was a disaster) but the Red Sox have Bello, Houck and Crawford all pitching well at relatively low cost. I'd add Whitlock but his continuing injury issues are obviously a major concern.

Kluber pitching poorly doesn't invalidate the strategy to me; it just means your team needs a better coaching staff and/or a better internal player evaluation system than the Sox were working with last year. It's actually possible that the current Sox front office agrees with my assessment; they didn't really abandon it despite the move from Bloom to Breslow.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Kluber pitching poorly doesn't invalidate the strategy to me; it just means your team needs a better coaching staff and/or a better internal player evaluation system than the Sox were working with last year. It's actually possible that the current Sox front office agrees with my assessment; they didn't really abandon it despite the move from Bloom to Breslow.

I actually think the Kluber situation is closer to validation of this strategy. Yes, it was a "disaster," but it makes disasters short term hits, as opposed to way longer, way more expensive hits(whether due to injury or performance).
In the end, what this solidifies to me is that if teams don't develop their own pitching going forward, they're pretty much screwed.

 

[RedOctober3829]

I actually think the Kluber situation is closer to validation of this strategy. Yes, it was a "disaster," but it makes disasters short term hits, as opposed to way longer, way more expensive hits(whether due to injury or performance).
In the end, what this solidifies to me is that if teams don't develop their own pitching going forward, they're pretty much screwed.

This is quite accurate. It’s my hope Bailey and Co. start the factory up. If this core of young players shows at the end of the season that it’s worth investing in, go get the high priced starter in the short term and hope the days of having to do that are numbered.

 

[sezwho]

The new model is what just happened to Snell and Montgomery. Get paid 1-2 years at a time.

Not sure this math bears up (not trying to single out your post it seems a broadly held opinion here!) curious what others think.

If elbow/shoulder injuries are a random walk (I actually argue that in specific cases it’s not, but in general I assume it is) then why not just lock up the good pitcher for a slightly lower average value and roll the dice each year on an injury? if you’re afraid of decline, that’s different


Want to add that the degree to which Breslow’s presence has changed my take on what’s possible for the Sox is amazing. I’m convinced he’s a freaking pitching ninja.

The prospect hit rates (across baseball) seem to show it isn’t exactly opening a can of corn, but it doesn’t take rocket science to draft and develop position players. With this pitching infrastructure now in place, the future (25+) is looking a lot brighter.

 

[Benj4ever]

Well, by 2025 we could have Grissom, Valdez, Mayer, Story, and Yorke for three infield spots. Eddinson Paulino has started hot in AA, too. Maybe that yields a Grissom/Mayer/Story infield, with Devers mostly at DH and Valdez as a left-handed complement to Story and Grissom?

If Grissom doesn't pan out, I wouldn't be surprised if the Sox move Wong to 2B if/when Teel is ready to assume full-time catching duties.