72 Suburbs in Search of a City: Anthony Davis to Los Angeles Lakers

ElUno20

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Jul 19, 2005
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Teams stopped treating veterans like this year’s ago. Power brokers control movement in this league and the Grizzlies would be foolish to do something so negligent to a player of Iguodala’s stature if he demands to me bought out or moved. I can’t imagine it happening.
I get this point and know this is how it works. But i dont understand why the smaller markets (new orleans, Memphis) ever give 2 shits about this. They're NEVER signing marquee free agents regardless of relationships. So the only way they'd be seriously hit is with mid tier guys holding out but those guys wont. They want to get paid (the jj reddicks).
 

lexrageorge

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Jul 31, 2007
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I get this point and know this is how it works. But i dont understand why the smaller markets (new orleans, Memphis) ever give 2 shits about this. They're NEVER signing marquee free agents regardless of relationships. So the only way they'd be seriously hit is with mid tier guys holding out but those guys wont. They want to get paid (the jj reddicks).
At first I was ready to agree. But then I realized that Iguodala will be entering his 16th and probably final season. There's two reasons I can think of for the Memphis GM to care:

a.) Memphis could eventually improve, and at that point they would want to be attractive to veteran players.

b.) Wallace may want to work elsewhere in the NBA at some point, and perceived relationship with players and agents will matter.
 

Swedgin

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I get this point and know this is how it works. But i dont understand why the smaller markets (new orleans, Memphis) ever give 2 shits about this. They're NEVER signing marquee free agents regardless of relationships. So the only way they'd be seriously hit is with mid tier guys holding out but those guys wont. They want to get paid (the jj reddicks).
This plus Landmark is not really a power broker anymore.

That does not mean you keep Iggy or ship him to Atlanta, but there is a lot of wiggle room between doing right by him and buying him out so he can sign with the Lakers.
 

HomeRunBaker

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How many 28 year olds (who haven't been crushing lines of coke for years) are truly washed up? He's not 35. My guess is you can get plenty of mileage out of Avery if you use him right.
Exactly. There are reasons why a 28-year old player hasn't progressed in his game over the past few years. Injuries, system fit, complacency with a big contract, etc.....I'm not sure there is any rational reason for him to simply be "washed up." Full recovery from his groin injury, improved conditioning (from being healthy), and a similar role as he had in Boston suggests that Avery should be one of the Lakers many valuable role players around LeBron and AD.

Sure, but it seems he no longer can hit an open shot.
What is this based on? There isn't anything rational to suggest this is the case.
 

DrewDawg

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Sure, but it seems he no longer can hit an open shot.
What is this based on? There isn't anything rational to suggest this is the case.
Yeah, that's actually not the case, at least compared to how he's always performed with what the NBA considers "wide open". First column is 2 pointers, second is 3 pointers.

18/19: 45.8 40.4
17/18: 49.0 43.1
16/17: 46.4 42.2
15/16: 43.1 41.4
14/15: 43.2 37.6
13/14: 47.9 42.3
 

nighthob

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Jul 15, 2005
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Guys, it's simple. If a player isn't on the Celtics, he's an under-the-radar gem that's about to blossom, perfectly complementing the other parts of his team. If he's on the Celtics, he's overrated, a bad fit, and soon to be exposed as a fraud. Try to keep up.
This post deserves more love.
 

cheech13

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Jan 5, 2006
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Exactly. There are reasons why a 28-year old player hasn't progressed in his game over the past few years. Injuries, system fit, complacency with a big contract, etc.....I'm not sure there is any rational reason for him to simply be "washed up." Full recovery from his groin injury, improved conditioning (from being healthy), and a similar role as he had in Boston suggests that Avery should be one of the Lakers many valuable role players around LeBron and AD.


What is this based on? There isn't anything rational to suggest this is the case.
Found the rational reason:

https://twitter.com/geeter3/status/1149741522889277441

"Avery Bradley battled injuries after his strong year in 16 he’s now in shape and shed the 40 extra pounds he had w Clipps...he has a lot to prove at 28 he said..I will post later Laker fans will love his attitude...btw off camera he said Boogie is in shape been texting him a lot"

Dude gained 40 extra lbs.?!! So he got fat and complacent and started to suck. If he's in shape and motivated maybe it comes back, but I'm not holding my breath.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Found the rational reason:

https://twitter.com/geeter3/status/1149741522889277441

"Avery Bradley battled injuries after his strong year in 16 he’s now in shape and shed the 40 extra pounds he had w Clipps...he has a lot to prove at 28 he said..I will post later Laker fans will love his attitude...btw off camera he said Boogie is in shape been texting him a lot"

Dude gained 40 extra lbs.?!! So he got fat and complacent and started to suck. If he's in shape and motivated maybe it comes back, but I'm not holding my breath.
Yes he had recurring groin injuries......but there is zero chance Avery gained 40 lbs. I recall noticing that he wasn’t his normal super lean and was thinking maybe 8-10 lbs. An extra 40 is like Shawn Kemp and John “Hot Plate” Williams territory......he wasn’t even in that stratosphere.
 

maufman

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Exactly. There are reasons why a 28-year old player hasn't progressed in his game over the past few years. Injuries, system fit, complacency with a big contract, etc.....I'm not sure there is any rational reason for him to simply be "washed up." Full recovery from his groin injury, improved conditioning (from being healthy), and a similar role as he had in Boston suggests that Avery should be one of the Lakers many valuable role players around LeBron and AD.


What is this based on? There isn't anything rational to suggest this is the case.
AB posted a sub-10 PERs and a sub-500 TS% for three straight seasons (2015-16 through 2017-18), then played only 14 games in 2018-19. I’m struggling to think of a player who went through a multi-year stretch that bad and recovered to become an effective player again.

Do you have data that suggests this commonly happens? Because if you don’t, I don’t see why it’s irrational to think AB might be cooked.
 

mcpickl

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Jul 23, 2007
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AB posted a sub-10 PERs and a sub-500 TS% for three straight seasons (2015-16 through 2017-18), then played only 14 games in 2018-19. I’m struggling to think of a player who went through a multi-year stretch that bad and recovered to become an effective player again.

Do you have data that suggests this commonly happens? Because if you don’t, I don’t see why it’s irrational to think AB might be cooked.
Bradley played 63 games last year, the 14 games were just his Memphis tour.

I'm not a big PER believer, but his PER was 13.25 in 15-16 and 14.52 in 16-17. I think you're counting his split seasons the last two seasons as full ones.

It looks to me like he was just a disaster with the Clippers. He was approximately the same guy he's been in Detroit and in his short run in Memphis.

I think he'll be fine as a bench player with the Lakers. Especially considering the cupboards were picked pretty bare when they agreed to sign him.
 

maufman

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Bradley played 63 games last year, the 14 games were just his Memphis tour.

I'm not a big PER believer, but his PER was 13.25 in 15-16 and 14.52 in 16-17. I think you're counting his split seasons the last two seasons as full ones.

It looks to me like he was just a disaster with the Clippers. He was approximately the same guy he's been in Detroit and in his short run in Memphis.

I think he'll be fine as a bench player with the Lakers. Especially considering the cupboards were picked pretty bare when they agreed to sign him.
Thanks. Looks like I screwed up. Though I’d submit he’s been pretty bad in the two years since he’s left Boston, the short stint in Memphis at the end of last season aside. If that Memphis stint represents the player AB is now when he’s healthy (ad opposed to just being SSS good shooting), I agree he’ll be a useful bench player for the Lakers. If he’s the guy we saw on the Pistons and Clippers, he’s toast.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Thanks. Looks like I screwed up. Though I’d submit he’s been pretty bad in the two years since he’s left Boston, the short stint in Memphis at the end of last season aside. If that Memphis stint represents the player AB is now when he’s healthy (ad opposed to just being SSS good shooting), I agree he’ll be a useful bench player for the Lakers. If he’s the guy we saw on the Pistons and Clippers, he’s toast.
I don’t know of any data for “system fit” but Bradley has had several injuries slowing him down the past couple years as well. Time will tell if he has lost his skill set however it is reasonable to point to these other factors as contributors to his demise. Plenty of players have recovered from injuries after a couple years and returned to being valuable pieces on winning teams.

Maybe it was complacency with his contract and/or being a father or whetever else he has doing on personally. These are unknowns but we do know about the role change where he wasn’t utilized as a weak side cutter as he was in Boston and the injuries that he’s had.
 

sezwho

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Jul 20, 2005
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Yea there is not even the slightest chance that he lost 40 pounds
As someone of his height (6'2") who may have hypothetically gained 40lbs at one point, I can testify its not possible to hide this much weight on that frame without it being obvious :)


I don’t know of any data for “system fit” but Bradley has had several injuries slowing him down the past couple years as well. Time will tell if he has lost his skill set however it is reasonable to point to these other factors as contributors to his demise. Plenty of players have recovered from injuries after a couple years and returned to being valuable pieces on winning teams.
Avery is one of the guards, Rondo another, that seemed to have made a choice to simply stop playing defense one offseason. He was an RPM darling for the three years leading through the '15-'16 season, and maybe injuries are the underlying driver, but to my eyes he went from being a stopper to average bordering on checked out at the defensive end.

Sort of a larger NBA trend I believe, though admittedly a data free opinion, but there was a time when a guard could built a rep on D (Payton for example). I just don't see that anymore once a player gets 'established' (Rondo, Avery, etc.) they just go for offensive #s. I'll stand by for the counterexamples.
 

Smokey Joe

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As someone of his height (6'2") who may have hypothetically gained 40lbs at one point, I can testify its not possible to hide this much weight on that frame without it being obvious :)




Avery is one of the guards, Rondo another, that seemed to have made a choice to simply stop playing defense one offseason. He was an RPM darling for the three years leading through the '15-'16 season, and maybe injuries are the underlying driver, but to my eyes he went from being a stopper to average bordering on checked out at the defensive end.

Sort of a larger NBA trend I believe, though admittedly a data free opinion, but there was a time when a guard could built a rep on D (Payton for example). I just don't see that anymore once a player gets 'established' (Rondo, Avery, etc.) they just go for offensive #s. I'll stand by for the counterexamples.
Smart.
 

sezwho

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Darn, I was hoping you were referring to my post but good call: he's 100% a guard that's made his bones on D.

That said, I still believe he's the exception not the rule, and that guard defense is not being emphasized/expected the same way.

To avoid just sounding like "You Kids Get Off My Lawn" I looked a defensive win shares for the top 50 guards every ten years going back from this season.

Year Average Defensive Win Shares Top 50 Guards
99 0.1197
09 0.1149
19 0.1131


For those more knowledgeable on the DEF WS methodology, perhaps there is a trending Team Pace or League Points per possession, etc. that makes this analysis moot, but I thought it was interesting.
 

TripleOT

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Jul 4, 2007
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JR Smith will become a free agent today, according to Windhorst. The Lakers still have the room exception, and can carve out a piece of it for JR.
 

HomeRunBaker

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JR Smith will become a free agent today, according to Windhorst. The Lakers still have the room exception, and can carve out a piece of it for JR.
I think the Lakers are more likely to save the room for down the road. Even LeBron knows JR is finished.
 

Tony C

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Yeah, don't they already have a ton of guards? It seems their need is at forward -- they probably can't afford Iggy, but that'd seem more up their alley.
 

Devizier

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It's fun to re-read this thread again. Quite a bit of drama for our cross-country rivals this offseason.

I wonder who the Lakers would have signed if they knew up front that Kawhi wasn't going to sign with them.

Would they have tried to dump their money on Kemba?

I'm not sure they're totally happy with Rondo-Cook-Bradley as their #2-#4 players in their guard rotation but they probably got their best fit for a #1 guy.

Also, the Cousins-McGee pairing will definitely test ol' Rocco's "two donkeys" theory.